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Official 2015 NHL Draft Thread

LGR4GM

By LGR4GM
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Derrico First Liner

Derrico

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Is anyone else concerned that Marner only scored 13 goals in 64 games last year?  Or that Dylan Strome only had 10 goals in 60 games?

 

In comparison, Reinhart had 35 goals in 72 games in the season before his draft year.  Possibly an age factor?  I just hope these guys aren't one year wonders in their draft eligible year if we don't get a top 2 pick.

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TrueBlueGED Hall of Famer

TrueBlueGED

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Is anyone else concerned that Marner only scored 13 goals in 64 games last year? Or that Dylan Strome only had 10 goals in 60 games?

 

In comparison, Reinhart had 35 goals in 72 games in the season before his draft year. Possibly an age factor? I just hope these guys aren't one year wonders in their draft eligible year if we don't get a top 2 pick.

IMO you should he more worried about actually getting McEichel and they bust. I mean, wouldn't *that* be the most Buffalo thing ever? You're welcome for that thought :p

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carpandean First Liner

carpandean

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Interesting RNH is a mediocre player and has significantly worse stats than the others

 

In the remaining 31GP that season, though, he had 21G, 36A for 57P, which pace-wise would be 26G, 44A, 70P in 38GP.  That's very comparable to the paces of everyone other than McDavid.  Admittedly, I haven't checked to see what the rest did over the remainder of their seasons.

Edited by carpandean
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Crusader1969 First Liner

Crusader1969

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Is anyone else concerned that Marner only scored 13 goals in 64 games last year?  Or that Dylan Strome only had 10 goals in 60 games?

 

In comparison, Reinhart had 35 goals in 72 games in the season before his draft year.  Possibly an age factor?  I just hope these guys aren't one year wonders in their draft eligible year if we don't get a top 2 pick.

 

 

not at all. dont forget the Knights were stacked last year (hosted the memorial cup) and had little PP time or ES minutes for a rookie. Also dont forget Mitch is still only 17 - wont turn 18 till after the season. by comparison Rienhart was 18 for most of his draft year.

 

Even if you compare Marner and Patrick Kane. Kane turned 18 in November of his draft year while Marner won't turn 18 till May.  Marner just needs to add 10-15lbs. 

 

Strome would be a good #2 centre behind Reinhart. Crouse would also be a consideration if Sabres drop to 4th.

 

I think you can pretty well write 

 

#1 McDavid

#2 Eichel

#3 Hanifin 

 

in ink - no matter what teams fill out the slots.

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Tom Backyard Prospect

Tom Backyard

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Just thinking about this, and I am pretty sure there is someone on here with the know how/resources to figure this out...

 

We all know that if we finish in last place, that there is an 80% chance that we don't pick first overall, but considering that last year we finished last overall and ended up losing the lottery and selecting second....

 

What are the chances that a team who finishes last overall for two consecutive years loses the lottery both years?

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#freejame Second Liner

#freejame

Posted
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Just thinking about this, and I am pretty sure there is someone on here with the know how/resources to figure this out...

 

We all know that if we finish in last place, that there is an 80% chance that we don't pick first overall, but considering that last year we finished last overall and ended up losing the lottery and selecting second....

 

What are the chances that a team who finishes last overall for two consecutive years loses the lottery both years?

Happened to Tampa Bay in '98/'99. That looks to be the only occurrence.

http://www2.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=18342

Edited by IrwinNelson
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Tom Backyard Prospect

Tom Backyard

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Happened to Tampa Bay in '98/'99. That looks to be the only occurrence.

http://www2.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=18342

Thanks.

 

Ok, so Ottawa, Tampa Bay and Edmonton are the only three in the history of the draft lottery to finish last place in back to back years. Tampa is the only team to have lost the lottery both years (but still drafted first one year because of restrictions placed on number of slots a team could move up).

 

Can anyone figure out the odds under the current system? Or has anyone seen an article examining this situation?

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carpandean First Liner

carpandean

Posted
Posted (edited)

Just thinking about this, and I am pretty sure there is someone on here with the know how/resources to figure this out...

 

We all know that if we finish in last place, that there is an 80% chance that we don't pick first overall, but considering that last year we finished last overall and ended up losing the lottery and selecting second....

 

What are the chances that a team who finishes last overall for two consecutive years loses the lottery both years?

 

Last year, the chance was 75% that we drafted second, which they increased to 80% this year.

 

So, since they are independent draws, the chance that such a team would draft second twice is:

 

(.75)(.80) = 0.60

 

60%

 

ETA: 35% chance of drafting first once and 5% chance of winning both lotteries.  And, no, losing last year does not affect the odds this year, so conditional on losing it last year, the probability of losing both is 80%.

Edited by carpandean
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Tom Backyard Prospect

Tom Backyard

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Posted

Last year, the chance was 75% that we drafted second, which they increased to 80% this year.

 

So, since they are independent draws, the chance that such a team would draft second twice is:

 

(.75)(.80) = 0.60

 

60%

 

ETA: 35% chance of drafting first once and 5% chance of winning both lotteries.  And, no, losing last year does not affect the odds this year, so conditional on losing it last year, the probability of losing both is 80%.

Thanks! I was thinking that you'd probably be able to figure that out pretty quickly.

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LGR4GM Hall of Famer

LGR4GM

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Besides put on a few lbs - what the hell does Marner have to do to be ranked ahead of Strome? 

put on a few lbs...

 

It's seriously the only reason he isn't ranked with Hanafin.  If Marner were 6' 185lbs he would be battling Noah for that 3rd slot. 

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Crusader1969 First Liner

Crusader1969

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in Marners last 45 games he has 42G and 71A scoring at a rate of 2.51PPG. He's been held scoreless in 4 of those 45 games and has 32 multiple Point games. 

 

the people who have Strome and/or Crouse over Marner probably had Turris and JVR ranked ahead of Kane in 2007.

 

Patrick Kane listed at 5'10 162lbs in draft year - Marner 5'11 165lbs.

 

 

They haven't updated the table on the right side yet.  

 

marner seems to have lost 10lbs on the March rankings. 

 

It will be intersting to see what he weighs come the combine.

Edited by Crusader1969
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MattPie All Star

MattPie

Posted
Posted

Just thinking about this, and I am pretty sure there is someone on here with the know how/resources to figure this out...

 

We all know that if we finish in last place, that there is an 80% chance that we don't pick first overall, but considering that last year we finished last overall and ended up losing the lottery and selecting second....

 

What are the chances that a team who finishes last overall for two consecutive years loses the lottery both years?

 

 

Happened to Tampa Bay in '98/'99. That looks to be the only occurrence.

http://www2.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=18342

 

The math (1 - lottery odds for first pick year 1) * ( 1 - lottery odds for first pick year 2). If we the sames year as the example, it'd be (1 - .25) * (1 -.2) = .8 * .75 = .6 or 60% chance that the last place team doesn't pick 1st either year. Note that the odds changed over the summer that's why the numbers are different from year one to year two. For fun, watch this place after the lottery to see who is bad at math (hint: people claiming Buffalo got hosed or whatnot).

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