TrueBlueGED Posted July 19, 2012 Report Share Posted July 19, 2012 Smells like cap circumvention a la Kovi. But it seems like the league doesn't care any more about that. Numerous media sources have reported the structure is fine. Plus the deal only takes Weber until he's 39, whereas Kovy's took him to age 45. Big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trettioåtta Posted July 19, 2012 Report Share Posted July 19, 2012 Hrmmm....shits going down! I agree with PHD re: flyers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaLaLaFontaine Posted July 19, 2012 Report Share Posted July 19, 2012 Yup. I like Weber but not as much as everyone else apparently. 100% Agreed. Myers is untradable in my mind. His worst case scenario is a top defensive pairing on the team. His best case scenario? Smoother skating Chris Pronger. You don't trade a guy like that. I know Shea Weber is better now, but not that much better and certainly doesn't have the upside. Besides, like I said above, there is no way Nashville is losing Weber. I don't agree. Myers has potential, yeah, but will he be better than Weber? I don't believe it, I think the chance is good that Myers won't live up to the expectations. Important is that Weber would like come here, better wording, would accept to come here. Weber was nominated for Norris the last three years, so he is constant on a very high niveau. But Weber in Buffalo won't happen, it is just a very unrealistic dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That Aud Smell Posted July 19, 2012 Report Share Posted July 19, 2012 Dreger added a tweet that the AAV could actually leave Nshvll with 2 firsts, a second, and a third. They will match, and then trade? i'm now hearing that the compensation would be 4 first round picks based on how value gets calculated (not against the entire term of the offer sheet). also, i heard that a match and trade would not work - there's a 1-year trade freeze following a match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IKnowPhysics Posted July 19, 2012 Report Share Posted July 19, 2012 Per Twitter: Nick Kypreos @RealKyper #Preds Weber offer sheet from #Flyers. 1st 4 yrs 1M salary+13M sb; yrs 5-6 4M sal+ 8Msb; yrs 7-10 6M sal; year 11 3M sal; last 3 yrs 1M sal Visual Breakdown as follows: Year 1: 1M + 13M (SB) = 14M Year 2: 1M + 13M (SB) = 14M Year 3: 1M + 13M (SB) = 14M Year 4: 1M + 13M (SB) = 14M Year 5: 4M + 8M (SB) = 12M Year 6: 4M + 8M (SB) = 12M Year 7: 6M Year 8: 6M Year 9: 6M Year 10: 6M Year 11: 3M Year 12: 1M Year 13: 1M Year 14: 1M Total Deal Value = 110, AAV = $7.86M Discuss According to this, Nashville would only be compensated two 1st round picks, a 2nd, and a 3rd. The likelihood for those picks turning out a comparable player with Philly being somewhat competitive is immensely tiny. Besides 2007 (after their one terrible season when they picked JVR 2nd orverall), Philly hasn't made a top 10 selection that actually belonged to them since 1992. Nashville should match. But this brings up an interesting idea. I'm guessing Nashville would have to match the structure of the deal. So suppose you were a real ###### GM. You could write up a $110M offer sheet for 14 years (until age 39), and front load it so much that you paid something like $97M in the first year and $1M per year after (this is dumb based on potential for injuries, etc, but bear with me). Nashville may not be able to pay $97M for anything in one year, let alone one player (and considering the potential for injury, they certainly wouldn't want to). This would pretty much be an automatic stealing of a player: throw more money at one player than the current rights-holding club can afford in the first year, then stretch the length of the contract out to age 39 to reduce cap hit and compensation. Sounds like that might get fixed in the next CBA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iron Crotch Posted July 19, 2012 Report Share Posted July 19, 2012 According to this, Nashville would only be compensated two 1st round picks, a 2nd, and a 3rd. The likelihood for those picks turning out a comparable player with Philly being somewhat competitive is immensely tiny. Besides 2007 (after their one terrible season when they picked JVR 2nd orverall), Philly hasn't made a top 10 selection that actually belonged to them since 1992. Nashville should match. Nashville would get 4 1st rounders. If I'm not mistaken, only the first 5 years of an offer sheet are used to computer the average payout. This is very similar to the Briere/Drury/Vanek situation. After losing Suter, I can't image the Preds let Weber walk. It would do serious damage to ticket sales down here. On another note, I blame Poile for creating this whole mess (just as I blamed Darcy a few years ago). He gambled with Suter and Weber and lost. All it takes is one aggressive GM out there to force your hand... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trettioåtta Posted July 19, 2012 Report Share Posted July 19, 2012 Nashville would get 4 1st rounders. If I'm not mistaken, only the first 5 years of an offer sheet are used to computer the average payout. This is very similar to the Briere/Drury/Vanek situation. After losing Suter, I can't image the Preds let Weber walk. It would do serious damage to ticket sales down here. On another note, I blame Poile for creating this whole mess (just as I blamed Darcy a few years ago). He gambled with Suter and Weber and lost. All it takes is one aggressive GM out there to force your hand... I dunno, it seems that they weren't that keen on resigning seeing Nashville as a show string budget etc. - But i feel sorry fr Poile, as he went all out this season and traded to try and show he was willing to commit to winning. Just like DR 5 years ago, if the owner refuses to put the money forward, the GM can't pretend to be a real contender Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IKnowPhysics Posted July 19, 2012 Report Share Posted July 19, 2012 Nashville would get 4 1st rounders. If I'm not mistaken, only the first 5 years of an offer sheet are used to computer the average payout. You're likely right. The compensation could also be based on maximum salary and you'd still be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlueGED Posted July 19, 2012 Report Share Posted July 19, 2012 According to this, Nashville would only be compensated two 1st round picks, a 2nd, and a 3rd. The likelihood for those picks turning out a comparable player with Philly being somewhat competitive is immensely tiny. Besides 2007 (after their one terrible season when they picked JVR 2nd orverall), Philly hasn't made a top 10 selection that actually belonged to them since 1992. Nashville should match. But this brings up an interesting idea. I'm guessing Nashville would have to match the structure of the deal. So suppose you were a real ###### GM. You could write up a $110M offer sheet for 14 years (until age 39), and front load it so much that you paid something like $97M in the first year and $1M per year after (this is dumb based on potential for injuries, etc, but bear with me). Nashville may not be able to pay $97M for anything in one year, let alone one player (and considering the potential for injury, they certainly wouldn't want to). This would pretty much be an automatic stealing of a player: throw more money at one player than the current rights-holding club can afford in the first year, then stretch the length of the contract out to age 39 to reduce cap hit and compensation. Sounds like that might get fixed in the next CBA. No, the CBA protects against anything like that. I don't know the exact time frame, but the salary paid cannot drop by more than 50% from one year to the next until X amount of years into the deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sabres13 Posted July 19, 2012 Report Share Posted July 19, 2012 With all this Weber offer sheet craziness other teams so watch out. If Philly gets Weber from Nashville this could have a really sucky domino effect. In which I mean other teams may start shooting out offer sheets to other players. I know I shouldn't be worried but what if some team sends a offer sheet to Ennis? It's not going to be as big as Webers but it will still dent our overall cap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlueGED Posted July 19, 2012 Report Share Posted July 19, 2012 With all this Weber offer sheet craziness other teams so watch out. If Philly gets Weber from Nashville this could have a really sucky domino effect. In which I mean other teams may start shooting out offer sheets to other players. I know I shouldn't be worried but what if some team sends a offer sheet to Ennis? It's not going to be as big as Webers but it will still dent our overall cap. Not worried about that at all. Offer sheeting the best defenseman in the NHL isn't the same thing as offer sheeting a small center who nobody even knows what he's capable of over the long haul. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wonderbread Posted July 19, 2012 Report Share Posted July 19, 2012 So I am guessing Holmgren is off Poile's christmas card list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iron Crotch Posted July 19, 2012 Report Share Posted July 19, 2012 I dunno, it seems that they weren't that keen on resigning seeing Nashville as a show string budget etc. - But i feel sorry fr Poile, as he went all out this season and traded to try and show he was willing to commit to winning. Just like DR 5 years ago, if the owner refuses to put the money forward, the GM can't pretend to be a real contender The budget issue is what I find interesting, and what will drive the Preds strategy going forward. There is a lot of evidence to suggest that most pro hockey teams under-report their earnings (due to a CBA, which forces them to invest a certain % in player salaries). As best as I can tell, the Preds were cash-flow positive last year, despite what they may "officially" report. And, they just signed a new, ridiculously sweet lease deal with Davidson County where they get to run arena operations and can generate revenue from all non-hockey events. So, I think they could match the offer sheet... but do they want to??? This is the classic ownership question of whether you want to win or whether you want to make money. Either way, I'm happy for Shea. He deserves the big payday. Link to the new lease deal: http://www.tennessea...-deal-Predators Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trettioåtta Posted July 19, 2012 Report Share Posted July 19, 2012 I don't really get this move by the Flyers? It will piss people off around the league and the deal is not so extortionate that the Preds can't match. It also doesn't make sense for Weber, as it means at the very least he is playing one more year in Nashville and can then be traded to any team without any input. If i am Polie i match and then next season i trade him to CBJ, let him try and win there :P But that is just my vindictive side... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlueGED Posted July 19, 2012 Report Share Posted July 19, 2012 The budget issue is what I find interesting, and what will drive the Preds strategy going forward. There is a lot of evidence to suggest that most pro hockey teams under-report their earnings (due to a CBA, which forces them to invest a certain % in player salaries). As best as I can tell, the Preds were cash-flow positive last year, despite what they may "officially" report. And, they just signed a new, ridiculously sweet lease deal with Davidson County where they get to run arena operations and can generate revenue from all non-hockey events. So, I think they could match the offer sheet... but do they want to??? This is the classic ownership question of whether you want to win or whether you want to make money. Either way, I'm happy for Shea. He deserves the big payday. Presumably they offered $90+ to try and keep Suter, and would have offered Weber a similar deal to keep them both. I mean, they wouldn't be prepared to only spend $90 million, spend it on Suter, and let Weber walk...right? I just can't imagine they'd go all-in to keep Suter, lose him, and then let Weber walk for late 1st draft picks because of money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LTS Posted July 19, 2012 Report Share Posted July 19, 2012 It's interesting. If the deal is $7.86m per season then the Flyers would be just about at the cap level. So they'd have to know that Pronger is not coming back at all or else they are truly in a bind or need to dump some payroll. Nashville has all the space in the world to keep a franchise player at $7.86m... unless Preds ownership is unwilling to spend then he stays in Nashville right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iron Crotch Posted July 19, 2012 Report Share Posted July 19, 2012 Presumably they offered $90+ to try and keep Suter, and would have offered Weber a similar deal to keep them both. I mean, they wouldn't be prepared to only spend $90 million, spend it on Suter, and let Weber walk...right? I just can't imagine they'd go all-in to keep Suter, lose him, and then let Weber walk for late 1st draft picks because of money. Yeah, and the Preds gave an offer to Parise too. Supposedly, Parise didn't want to come to Nashville and Suter didn't want to play in New Jersey. So, they both picked Minnesota since that is where Parise is from and it is Suter's wife's hometown (and Suter has a farm not far from there in Wisconsin). Suter never really wanted to be here, but I get the sense that Shea does. Either way, it certainly gives us something to chat about on message boards for the next few weeks! :D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radiomike Posted July 19, 2012 Report Share Posted July 19, 2012 100% Agreed. Myers is untradable in my mind. His worst case scenario is a top defensive pairing on the team. His best case scenario? Smoother skating Chris Pronger. You don't trade a guy like that. I know Shea Weber is better now, but not that much better and certainly doesn't have the upside. Besides, like I said above, there is no way Nashville is losing Weber. Yes, Myers may turn out to be a smooth skating Pronger, but Shea Weber's worst case scenario is that he's Shea Weber. Guy is elite, and is much better than Myers at this point. I just think it's a little crazy to prefer unrealized potential over a proven commodity like him. If he was a tier below talent wise or older then sure, I could see the argument. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nobody Posted July 19, 2012 Report Share Posted July 19, 2012 David Poile Statement on Shea Weber Offer Sheet http://predators.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=638229 The Preds are sticking it to the Flyers now - going to take their time deciding what to do prevents the Flyers from trying to sign someone else to an offer sheet! :w00t: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gohansrage Posted July 19, 2012 Report Share Posted July 19, 2012 Yes, Myers may turn out to be a smooth skating Pronger, but Shea Weber's worst case scenario is that he's Shea Weber. Guy is elite, and is much better than Myers at this point. I just think it's a little crazy to prefer unrealized potential over a proven commodity like him. If he was a tier below talent wise or older then sure, I could see the argument. I understand. But I think he can be better than Weber is. Sicne he downside is "good NHL defenceman" I think it's woth a calculated risk to keep Myers and see what happends. Also, Myers would be a lower cap hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlueGED Posted July 19, 2012 Report Share Posted July 19, 2012 I understand. But I think he can be better than Weber is. Sicne he downside is "good NHL defenceman" I think it's woth a calculated risk to keep Myers and see what happends. Also, Myers would be a lower cap hit. Then you think Myers will be one of the best defensemen of all time? I think Myers' ceiling is what Weber already is. I'm on record that I wouldn't trade Myers for Getzlaf...but I'd trade Myers for Weber yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inkman Posted July 19, 2012 Report Share Posted July 19, 2012 The Preds are sticking it to the Flyers now - going to take their time deciding what to do prevents the Flyers from trying to sign someone else to an offer sheet! :w00t: Is it really sticking it to them when an offer sheet comes around once every five years? Who else is an RFA worth it anyway? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redemption City Posted July 19, 2012 Author Report Share Posted July 19, 2012 The cap hit isn't an issue, it's the bonus money that could keep the Preds from matching. But I hope they do, screw the Flyers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nfreeman Posted July 19, 2012 Report Share Posted July 19, 2012 Yes, Myers may turn out to be a smooth skating Pronger, but Shea Weber's worst case scenario is that he's Shea Weber. Guy is elite, and is much better than Myers at this point. I just think it's a little crazy to prefer unrealized potential over a proven commodity like him. If he was a tier below talent wise or older then sure, I could see the argument. Agree 100%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlueGED Posted July 19, 2012 Report Share Posted July 19, 2012 The cap hit isn't an issue, it's the bonus money that could keep the Preds from matching. But I hope they do, screw the Flyers! The cap sort of is an issue though, I believe they're something like $13 million under the cap floor. If they let Weber walk, who else is left to throw stupid money at to get to the floor? Semin and Kostitsyn? Trade for Tim Thomas' contract? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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