Paul Hamilton: Two GMs tell him Darcy overvalues his players by quite a bit

[PromoTheRobot]

Can the same be said of some of the trades suggested on this board?

 

PTR

[That Aud Smell]

Identifying talent that sticks and identifying talent that excels aren't necessarily the same thing.

If they are playing like first and second round picks then maybe so. But if they are third and fourth liners or fifth and sixth d-men, then maybe not. Seems to me that they hit a lot of singles and doubles but very few if any homeruns.

 

fair points, all. i only offered that tidbit as a fwiw/food for thought item.

 

strikes me that, being a GM who reliably hits for average (as jim suggests) may leave you in a situation where you're using hecht as a top-6 center and gaustad as a 3rd line center.

 

yes, I can get onboard with this assessment. I'd support Darcy as head of scouting. As long as we bring in another GM.

 

interesting.

 

but would the team's talent/culture change/improve as a result? i doubt it.

[Bullwinkle]

This is what I know about Darcy and his negotiation strategy. He will talk a deal, get the other side to agree, and then at the last minute ask for something a little extra...a pick...a minor leaguer...etc. The other GM, who wants the deal, is thus more inclined to go along with it.

 

He is known for this tactic but I think over the years the other GMs are wise to it. Thus he's unable to finalize as many trades as in the past.

[DaFan]

Last night Paul Hamilton said on WGR that 2 different GMs have told him that when dealing with Darcy, that he asks waaaaay too much for his own players, effectively killing a lot of deals. FWIW. (I don't know if the other GMs are undervaluing them).

 

Not really surprised, and I would think everyone does it. Just like negotiating a new job, you go in high with your salary hoping to come to a happy medium that both would be satisfied with. I EXPECT him to deal/negotiate and try to get the best for what he is giving up.

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

I am involved in a business where if you overvalue your players, you don't make any money. Horseracing. I think that it one of the reasons I can be so brutally honest about assesing players, coach, GM, whoever. You have to constantly be honest with yourself and surround yourself with people you respect and trust to be honest with you. It's a little different in that there are hundreds of choices nationwide who you hitch your wagon to, and thousands of horses to choose from, but still, if you race your horse over his head for too long, 2 things happen. First, you never win the race and end up losing money. Second, constant defeat for a horse who knows he is not good enough to compete where he is or is trained by someone who can't get the best out of him, leads many times to that horse going through the motions.

 

New owners many times fall in love with their horses and you have to pound on them to run them where they belong. Much like Darcy looking to Connolly as a #1 center for almost a decade, you can pay a lot of a money for a horse, and expect him to win stakes races. After a while, it becomes obvious he is not the cream of the crop. You can do the smart thing and put him up against lesser competition with less reward and the possibility someone else will take him from you, or you can be stubborned and wait forever.

 

Same goes for a sale of a horse. A young horse has some early success and people will be interested. If you are willing to move him, you have to be honest with yourself. Sure, there is the chance he will go on and win the Kentucky Derby, but there is a chance he can level off, or get nagging injuries and be worth much less in the future than the offer you get. It's a constant process of BEING HONEST WITH YOURSELF.

 

With some of the spreadsheets I have heard Darcy quote over the years, I get the feeling he is trying to find ways to justify his players are having success. He tries to mold positives out of things when in reality one thing matters.......did you win the race? Heck, did you win any race in the 4 needed to win even before the Derby in the past 4 years?

[K-9]

http://horseasametaphor.com/Site/Welcome.html

 

GO SABRES!!!

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

http://horseasametap...te/Welcome.html

 

GO SABRES!!!

 

Sweet.

 

The structure of the sport, the interaction between people involved, and decision making process is almost the same as hockey however. It pretty much is the same as football.

[Captainkirk001]

yes, I can get onboard with this assessment. I'd support Darcy as head of scouting. As long as we bring in another GM.

 

I have to disagree with you. If Darcy and Lindy end up going, they need to be gone, I would like a fresh start....

[HopefulFuture]

I have to disagree with you. If Darcy and Lindy end up going, they need to be gone, I would like a fresh start....

Don't get me wrong, I'm not advocating the idea, just throwing it out there since Pegula apparently refuses to ###### can em'.

 

I have advocated axing Regier for years now.

[thesportsbuff]

I would think most GM's overvalue their players. They have to otherwise they'd get taken to the cleaner all the time. As for 2 GM's think DR overvalues his players? Hamilton's not reaching on that one. I'm sure you could find at least 2 GM's out of 30 that think the same about other teams GM's.

 

 

This is pretty much how I look at it as well. And furthermore, I don't necessarily think Darcy is doing that bad of a job just because he hasn't started a fire sale on our roster. Being a GM in the NHL is a lot harder and has much more severe repercussions than playing GM in a video game... it's a tough spot when every move you make has a chance of backfiring completely.

 

All GMs are going to value players differently. I don't blame Darcy for not trading Stafford or Roy for a garbage draft pick or something. Stafford broke out with a great year last season... and Darcy did what any GM would do -- get him locked up and hope he really turned the corner. I'm sure some GMs think Derek Roy is a second line center at best, while others would consider him an adequate first line center on their team.

 

If you have Stafford and Roy on your team and you don't like the trade offers your getting, don't trade them. Some GMs will say Darcy is "over valuing" them.. or perhaps those other GMs are over valuing their side of the deal? Darcy has seen these guys perform at their top potential. He's seen Stafford score 4 hat tricks and 30 goals. He's seen Roy lead the team in points for countless seasons. I wouldn't trade them for something I felt wasn't a fair deal.

[Tyrannustyrannus]

2 things about this

 

Every player on the team (except for Erhoff, Boyes, Regher, and Leino) was drafted or traded for during the past ownership. Remember when Golisano was asked what his favorite moment as owner was? It was when Pominvilled scored to eliminate Ottawa in 2006. I kinda took that to mean that Pominville was Golisano's favorite player, and that's why he got the huge contract.

 

I'm sure Darcy values his job more than anything, so he will follow the direction of the ownership. If Pegula wants players traded, I'm sure Darcy will be able to make a deal.

[spndnchz]

2 things about this

 

Every player on the team (except for Erhoff, Boyes, Regher, and Leino) was drafted or traded for during the past ownership. Remember when Golisano was asked what his favorite moment as owner was? It was when Pominvilled scored to eliminate Ottawa in 2006. I kinda took that to mean that Pominville was Golisano's favorite player, and that's why he got the huge contract.

 

I'm sure Darcy values his job more than anything, so he will follow the direction of the ownership. If Pegula wants players traded, I'm sure Darcy will be able to make a deal.

 

In the back of my head I'm thinking some players got those contracts just to make the league minimum. The other side of me sees that they did spend to near the cap by 5 mill or so. But that thought still sticks in my head.

[LabattBlue]

I don't blame Darcy for not trading Stafford or Roy for a garbage draft pick or something.

I don't think those are the deals that Darcy is turning his back to. ;)

[Eleven]

Well, this is interesting. Certainly, I've heard Hammy opine on this before, but like others, this is the first time I've heard it attributed to a couple of GMs. Even though it makes perfect sense, I wish I could listen to the interview and hear it all in context, because...

 

I have it on very, very good authority that in one very important instance, Regier did not value a player highly enough. And it was a player that Regier brought into the fold, although not through the draft. It was Danny Briere. That was one decision where Quinn was pulling the strings, but Regier, from what I've been told, didn't exactly put up a fight. At all. Might have been closer to agreeing with Quinn than arguing with him, in fact.

 

Maybe he thinks one thing when it comes to trades and another when it comes to salary (but then explain Stafford!). Maybe he had to stick to a budget in 2007 and evaluated Briere in connection with that budget. But he definitely undervalued that guy.

 

Drury, OTOH...

[shrader]

Well, this is interesting. Certainly, I've heard Hammy opine on this before, but like others, this is the first time I've heard it attributed to a couple of GMs. Even though it makes perfect sense, I wish I could listen to the interview and hear it all in context, because...

 

I have it on very, very good authority that in one very important instance, Regier did not value a player highly enough. And it was a player that Regier brought into the fold, although not through the draft. It was Danny Briere. That was one decision where Quinn was pulling the strings, but Regier, from what I've been told, didn't exactly put up a fight. At all. Might have been closer to agreeing with Quinn than arguing with him, in fact.

 

Maybe he thinks one thing when it comes to trades and another when it comes to salary (but then explain Stafford!). Maybe he had to stick to a budget in 2007 and evaluated Briere in connection with that budget. But he definitely undervalued that guy.

 

Drury, OTOH...

 

That still seems to me like a moment where they wanted to pick one or the other and they went with Drury. And like you're suggesting, that pursuit was botched. It's easy to say now that Briere was the obvious choice, but if you go back to that day, I get the feeling that most would have gone with Drury as well.

[Bullwinkle]

 

 

That still seems to me like a moment where they wanted to pick one or the other and they went with Drury. And like you're suggesting, that pursuit was botched. It's easy to say now that Briere was the obvious choice, but if you go back to that day, I get the feeling that most would have gone with Drury as well.

 

Most but not all. I always favored Briere over Drury but I know I was in the minority at that time. Sometimes 20/20 hindsight looks good.

[shrader]

Most but not all. I always favored Briere over Drury but I know I was in the minority at that time. Sometimes 20/20 hindsight looks good.

 

Well I did use the word "most" for a reason. ;)

[LabattBlue]

It's easy to say now that Briere was the obvious choice, but if you go back to that day, I get the feeling that most would have gone with Drury as well.

Not in hindsight...not me. :rolleyes:

[nfreeman]

i'm more than a little sick and tired of saying it, but i will say it again: i just don't like the team that darcy has assembled. there are individuals whom i like and admire (24, 26, 57 (to use a hamilton twitter trick)), but the culture that this team exudes and exhibits is unpleasant to me.

 

Hard to argue with this but I will say that I really liked the team he put together in 2005-06, as I would guess you and everyone else here did. So he's capable of doing it.

 

I think a lot of what we're seeing now are the results of a few bad decisions from above at key times that put DR into bad positions, leading to him making a few bad calls. At this point he's 100% accountable though IMHO.

 

He continues to be way too secure in his position as GM. Pegula and Black need to change that. He should be put on notice ASAP that at seasons end, injuries will not be used as an excuse.

 

Which is why IMO the problems go much deeper than a few injuries.

 

Agree with both of these 100%.

 

that wasn't my take at all, no.

 

my take was that, while darcy may be rightly criticized for over-valuing his players, he and his scouting department can also fairly be judged as a superior judge of talent, since they have effectively "placed" the most #1's and #2's into the nhl.

 

Yes, but...

 

Identifying talent that sticks and identifying talent that excels aren't necessarily the same thing.

If they are playing like first and second round picks then maybe so. But if they are third and fourth liners or fifth and sixth d-men, then maybe not. Seems to me that they hit a lot of singles and doubles but very few if any homeruns. I could be way too harsh though too.

 

There haven't been quite as many home runs as you might want, innit? Out of guys that DR has drafted, I think I might only describe Miller, Myers and Soupy as home runs and I freely admit that others will disagree on them. (I suppose many would include Vanek as well; I don't think I would, especially given the guys who were drafted after him in the first round that year -- Getzlaf, Perry, Parise, Mike Richards, Phaneuf, Ryan Suter).

 

Having said that, if Miller and Myers were playing like home runs this year, which each of them is fully capable of doing (and I believe will do so again, this year), the Sabres would be close to the top of the EC.

 

I'm sure you could find at least 2 GM's out of 30 that think the same about other teams GM's.

 

Definitely.

 

yes, I can get onboard with this assessment. I'd support Darcy as head of scouting. As long as we bring in another GM.

 

I've seen others propose this as well. For the record, there is zero chance of this happening.

 

This is what I know about Darcy and his negotiation strategy. He will talk a deal, get the other side to agree, and then at the last minute ask for something a little extra...a pick...a minor leaguer...etc. The other GM, who wants the deal, is thus more inclined to go along with it.

 

He is known for this tactic but I think over the years the other GMs are wise to it. Thus he's unable to finalize as many trades as in the past.

 

Just curious -- was this reported by another GM? I haven't seen this anywhere.

 

I am involved in a business where if you overvalue your players, you don't make any money. Horseracing. I think that it one of the reasons I can be so brutally honest about assesing players, coach, GM, whoever. You have to constantly be honest with yourself and surround yourself with people you respect and trust to be honest with you. It's a little different in that there are hundreds of choices nationwide who you hitch your wagon to, and thousands of horses to choose from, but still, if you race your horse over his head for too long, 2 things happen. First, you never win the race and end up losing money. Second, constant defeat for a horse who knows he is not good enough to compete where he is or is trained by someone who can't get the best out of him, leads many times to that horse going through the motions.

 

New owners many times fall in love with their horses and you have to pound on them to run them where they belong. Much like Darcy looking to Connolly as a #1 center for almost a decade, you can pay a lot of a money for a horse, and expect him to win stakes races. After a while, it becomes obvious he is not the cream of the crop. You can do the smart thing and put him up against lesser competition with less reward and the possibility someone else will take him from you, or you can be stubborned and wait forever.

 

Same goes for a sale of a horse. A young horse has some early success and people will be interested. If you are willing to move him, you have to be honest with yourself. Sure, there is the chance he will go on and win the Kentucky Derby, but there is a chance he can level off, or get nagging injuries and be worth much less in the future than the offer you get. It's a constant process of BEING HONEST WITH YOURSELF.

 

With some of the spreadsheets I have heard Darcy quote over the years, I get the feeling he is trying to find ways to justify his players are having success. He tries to mold positives out of things when in reality one thing matters.......did you win the race? Heck, did you win any race in the 4 needed to win even before the Derby in the past 4 years?

 

Excellent post. Ruthlessness is definitely a requirement.

 

This is pretty much how I look at it as well. And furthermore, I don't necessarily think Darcy is doing that bad of a job just because he hasn't started a fire sale on our roster. Being a GM in the NHL is a lot harder and has much more severe repercussions than playing GM in a video game... it's a tough spot when every move you make has a chance of backfiring completely.

 

All GMs are going to value players differently. I don't blame Darcy for not trading Stafford or Roy for a garbage draft pick or something. Stafford broke out with a great year last season... and Darcy did what any GM would do -- get him locked up and hope he really turned the corner. I'm sure some GMs think Derek Roy is a second line center at best, while others would consider him an adequate first line center on their team.

 

If you have Stafford and Roy on your team and you don't like the trade offers your getting, don't trade them. Some GMs will say Darcy is "over valuing" them.. or perhaps those other GMs are over valuing their side of the deal? Darcy has seen these guys perform at their top potential. He's seen Stafford score 4 hat tricks and 30 goals. He's seen Roy lead the team in points for countless seasons. I wouldn't trade them for something I felt wasn't a fair deal.

 

Also a good post.

 

2 things about this

 

Every player on the team (except for Erhoff, Boyes, Regher, and Leino) was drafted or traded for during the past ownership. Remember when Golisano was asked what his favorite moment as owner was? It was when Pominvilled scored to eliminate Ottawa in 2006. I kinda took that to mean that Pominville was Golisano's favorite player, and that's why he got the huge contract.

 

I'm sure Darcy values his job more than anything, so he will follow the direction of the ownership. If Pegula wants players traded, I'm sure Darcy will be able to make a deal.

 

Another good one. The bolded part is especially interesting.

 

In the back of my head I'm thinking some players got those contracts just to make the league minimum. The other side of me sees that they did spend to near the cap by 5 mill or so. But that thought still sticks in my head.

 

I think Miller, Pommer, Gaustad and Hecht got the deals they got primarily because TG/LQ belatedly realized that they had made a laughingstock of the franchise by fumbling away Drury, Briere and Soupy and by fumbling into a terrible corner and having to overpay to keep Vanek, so they had to overpay the next group of guys to stop the bleeding and restore some credibility. (This is what I mean by terrible decisions by TG/LQ forcing DR into other bad decisions, btw.)

 

 

 

Well, this is interesting. Certainly, I've heard Hammy opine on this before, but like others, this is the first time I've heard it attributed to a couple of GMs. Even though it makes perfect sense, I wish I could listen to the interview and hear it all in context, because...

 

I have it on very, very good authority that in one very important instance, Regier did not value a player highly enough. And it was a player that Regier brought into the fold, although not through the draft. It was Danny Briere. That was one decision where Quinn was pulling the strings, but Regier, from what I've been told, didn't exactly put up a fight. At all. Might have been closer to agreeing with Quinn than arguing with him, in fact.

 

Maybe he thinks one thing when it comes to trades and another when it comes to salary (but then explain Stafford!). Maybe he had to stick to a budget in 2007 and evaluated Briere in connection with that budget. But he definitely undervalued that guy.

 

Drury, OTOH...

 

Very interesting. And painful.

 

That still seems to me like a moment where they wanted to pick one or the other and they went with Drury. And like you're suggesting, that pursuit was botched. It's easy to say now that Briere was the obvious choice, but if you go back to that day, I get the feeling that most would have gone with Drury as well.

 

Me too. I'd be very curious to know whether 11's source has an opinion on whether TG/LQ told DR he could only keep one of Drury or Briere, so he had to choose, and in that context, DR agreed with LQ that it should be Drury (as most of us would have done at the time, as you point out).

 

As for the OP: the proof will be in the pudding. If DR refuses to part with anyone this year and he's wrong, then he's on the elevator to the basement with the rest of his guys.

[Eleven]

That still seems to me like a moment where they wanted to pick one or the other and they went with Drury. And like you're suggesting, that pursuit was botched. It's easy to say now that Briere was the obvious choice, but if you go back to that day, I get the feeling that most would have gone with Drury as well.

 

No. I may not have written it very well, and I'm very worried about the source. But no. The decision was Briere, in a vacuum.

[SDS]

No. I may not have written it very well, and I'm very worried about the source. But no. The decision was Briere, in a vacuum.

 

color me confused.

[Eleven]

color me confused.

 

Explained, I hope, in PM. But that's it. It's a good source; Darcy was part and parcel of scuttling the Briere re-signing.

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

Briere knew he was gone ahead of time.

 

That's what sent me over the edge. Not that he was gone, but that they knew he was off the table, and that they had yanked Drury around for weeks early in the year with his offer. Any rational human had to know that would not sit well with an honorable guy. They had to know there was a good chance Drury would walk as well. They knew 2007 was their last real shot, and they could have made 1 or 2 reasonable moves for grit at the deadline and not had to mortgage the future. Darcy comes out a few days after Afinigenov had broken his wrist and his timetable out entended into the playoffs, and says he will be back for the regular season...which made no sense. Then he says Connolly who had been out almost a full year would be back. They could have used that LTIR salary, then in the playoffs there would be no cap and EVERYONE could play. It was obvious Darcy said that to hamstring himself into not being able to use that cap space to get help. Any smart GM shuts up and at least looks at the option of using it. Afinigenov and Connolly came back for a grand total of 3 or 4 games, and Afinigenov got scratched in the playoffs. The precious pieces he couldn't part with...Paille, MacArthur, Paetch, hell Stafford, would have landed you Roberts and Guerin easily. It wasn't the fact that they didn't make a move in itself that is attrocious, it was the cowardly action of neutering yourself, which Darcy did. Sad.....to this day I swear I am the only one who ever brings this up.

[Eleven]

Briere knew he was gone ahead of time.

 

That's what sent me over the edge. Not that he was gone, but that they knew he was off the table, and that they had yanked Drury around for weeks early in the year with his offer. Any rational human had to know that would not sit well with an honorable guy. They had to know there was a good chance Drury would walk as well. They knew 2007 was their last real shot, and they could have made 1 or 2 reasonable moves for grit at the deadline and not had to mortgage the future. Darcy comes out a few days after Afinigenov had broken his wrist and his timetable out entended into the playoffs, and says he will be back for the regular season...which made no sense. Then he says Connolly who had been out almost a full year would be back. They could have used that LTIR salary, then in the playoffs there would be no cap and EVERYONE could play. It was obvious Darcy said that to hamstring himself into not being able to use that cap space to get help. Any smart GM shuts up and at least looks at the option of using it. Afinigenov and Connolly came back for a grand total of 3 or 4 games, and Afinigenov got scratched in the playoffs. The precious pieces he couldn't part with...Paille, MacArthur, Paetch, hell Stafford, would have landed you Roberts and Guerin easily. It wasn't the fact that they didn't make a move in itself that is attrocious, it was the cowardly action of neutering yourself, which Darcy did. Sad.....to this day I swear I am the only one who ever brings this up.

 

 

Ok. It's not easy to respond to a huge block of text, but I'll try:

 

(1) The Afi benching was smart. It got him to perform. I think we all remember his belly-slide to center ice against the Rags; in 15 years, it will be as celebrated as the Mayday goal is now.

 

(2) It should be obvious by now that letting Drury go was the smart move. Not so much for Briere.

 

(3) He parted with 3 of those "precious parts he couldn't part with"; WTF are you talking about?

 

(4) A team that wins a Presidents' Trophy doesn't usually look inward and say "hey, what the hell are we doing wrong?"

 

(5) I really hate saying this, but: if that 2007 team was so freaking awesome, and if that was really the last clear chance at winning it all, well, why NOT blow it up afterwards? I mean, they did NOT win it with Briere and Drury. Twice. It did NOT work. So, for all you people who love change, well, why would you have kept it constant?

 

(6) I still regret the loss of Briere, especially with what I know of the circumstances.

 

(7) MOST IMPORTANT: Without the injuries, and who the hell could have predicted them, there's a parade down Delaware in June '06. With Lindy in the lead, and in spite of Quinn. It never would have gotten to the 2007 shedding of talent.

[LGR4GM]

Briere knew he was gone ahead of time.

 

That's what sent me over the edge. Not that he was gone, but that they knew he was off the table, and that they had yanked Drury around for weeks early in the year with his offer. Any rational human had to know that would not sit well with an honorable guy. They had to know there was a good chance Drury would walk as well. They knew 2007 was their last real shot, and they could have made 1 or 2 reasonable moves for grit at the deadline and not had to mortgage the future. Darcy comes out a few days after Afinigenov had broken his wrist and his timetable out entended into the playoffs, and says he will be back for the regular season...which made no sense. Then he says Connolly who had been out almost a full year would be back. They could have used that LTIR salary, then in the playoffs there would be no cap and EVERYONE could play. It was obvious Darcy said that to hamstring himself into not being able to use that cap space to get help. Any smart GM shuts up and at least looks at the option of using it. Afinigenov and Connolly came back for a grand total of 3 or 4 games, and Afinigenov got scratched in the playoffs. The precious pieces he couldn't part with...Paille, MacArthur, Paetch, hell Stafford, would have landed you Roberts and Guerin easily. It wasn't the fact that they didn't make a move in itself that is attrocious, it was the cowardly action of neutering yourself, which Darcy did. Sad.....to this day I swear I am the only one who ever brings this up.

The day DR did not trade for that depth defender going into the 06 playoffs was the day the Sabres last chance of EVER, winning a cup with him as GM died. 06 was the year, 07 was a mirage of smoke mirrors and false hope. It takes something special to win a cup. This team does not have it and as long as DR makes the decisions on who stays and goes they will never win a cup, ever. Some call it leadership or grit or talent, I like to quote Herb Brooks "I'm not looking for the best players, I'm looking for the right ones." Ladies and Gentlemen, we do not have the right players. Drury and Briere were here for such a short time and look at what they accomplished. Roy, Stafford, Vanek, Pommers, Goose, Hecht, Miller will never have their names etched on Lord Stanley's cup as a single team because the are ordinary and they must be extraordinary to accomplish something that has alluded the Sabres for 41 years. Do you believe that this team is extraordinary? I don't.

 

Terry Pegula, at some point you must see the truth, Darcy is not a has been, he is a never was.

 

The difference between good and great is not skill, its will. Backed into a corner, injured and barely able to stand, a team with will finds ways to win. Good teams win games they should, Great teams win games they should lose.