Making up for the loss of scoring from JJP (and Cozens among others).

[GASabresIUFAN]

The Sabres scored 265 goals last season.  The Sabres traded or let go of JJP (27 goals), Cozens (11 goals), Clifton, Joki, Lafferty, Kubel, and JBD and lost 48 goals in the process.

The Sabres also added forwards Norris (1 goal in 3 Sabres games, but 21 overall in 56 games), Doan (7 goals in 51 games) and Danforth (9 goals in 61 games) and D Kesselring (7 goals) and Timmins (3 goals).

Net of these changes the Sabres are down 2 goals on paper including Norris' 20 goals with Ottawa.

Based on my projections I see the Sabres at 254 goals next season.  Looking at next year's roster, I see Zucker (21 goals) and McLeod (20 goals) as regression candidates.  Zucker do to age and McLeod do to an abnormally high shooting %.   

There is hope.  Benson (10 goals) and Kulich (15 goals) are youngsters who hopefully blossom with more ice time and bigger roles on the team.  The key to overcoming the deficit beside Kulich and Benson improving is rebounds in healthy and production from injured players like Norris (21 goals in 56 games), Quinn (15 goals in 74 games) and Greenway (3 goals in 34 games).  The last X factor is Doan.  Is he a 4th line energy forward and 7-10 goals is all we can expect, or can he seize a 3rd line role and give us 15 goals? 

 

Edited 23 hours ago by GASabresIUFAN

[tom webster]

7 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

The Sabres scored 265 goals last season.  The Sabres traded or let go of JJP (27 goals), Cozens (11 goals), Clifton, Joki, Lafferty, Kubel, and JBD and lost 48 goals in the process.

The Sabres also added forwards Norris (1 goal in 3 Sabres games 21 for the entire season), Doan (7 goals in 51 games) and Danforth (9 goals in 61 games) and D Kesselring (7 goals) and Timmins (3 goals).

Net of these changes, the Sabres are down 22 goals on paper.

Based on my projections I see the Sabres at 254 goals next season.  Looking at next year's roster, I see Zucker (21 goals) and McLeod (20 goals) as regression candidates.  Zucker do to age and McLeod do to an abnormally high shooting %.   

There is hope.  Benson (10 goals) and Kulich (15 goals) are youngsters who hopefully blossom with more ice time and bigger roles on the team.  The key to overcoming the deficit beside Kulich and Benson improving is rebounds in healthy and production from injured players like Norris (21 goals in 56 games), Quinn (15 goals in 74 games) and Greenway (3 goals in 34 games).  The last X factor is Doan.  Is he a 4th line energy forward and 7-10 goals is all we can expect, or can he seize a 3rd line role and give us 15 goals? 

 

I think they get a lot more scoring from third and fourth lines this year and while regression from McLeod is probably more likely, it’s also possible that he continues to improve with increased usage. I personally don’t see offense as a problem.

[Taro T]

2 minutes ago, tom webster said:

I think they get a lot more scoring from third and fourth lines this year and while regression from McLeod is probably more likely, it’s also possible that he continues to improve with increased usage. I personally don’t see offense as a problem.

There's also the possibility that the PP will simply have too much talent on it to be unable to overcome Appert.  They weren't able to do so last year, but especially if they go to a 3-2 with Byram replacing (effectively) Cozens and Norris replacing Peterka/Quinn on that 1st unit.

[Night Train]

We know who our veterans are but Sabres needed a couple more forwards. Adams doesn't seem to be able to get another deal done. Hope that changes. 

Now it's back to having youngsters or prospects making up that loss. Long shot hope. 

 

 

[dudacek]

I think the team is still going to be in the top half of the league for goals for.

The more pertinent question is can they be in the top half for goals against?

[Eleven]

How is 265 to 254 even significant?  

The Sabres' problems are in goal and on defense.

[GASabresIUFAN]

30 minutes ago, Eleven said:

How is 265 to 254 even significant?  

The Sabres' problems are in goal and on defense.

Those are topics for different conversations.

[GASabresIUFAN]

49 minutes ago, tom webster said:

I think they get a lot more scoring from third and fourth lines this year and while regression from McLeod is probably more likely, it’s also possible that he continues to improve with increased usage. I personally don’t see offense as a problem.

He might get more opportunities, but he is unlikely to shoot 20%+ again.  Last season he scored 20 goals on only 97 shots.  The year before he scored 12 on 106 shots.  What we saw last season was a career 12% shooter get significant puck luck.  If he shoots at his prior career % (12%), he’s going to need to take 167 shots (or a  70% increase in shots) to match last year’s goal total. That’s is unlikely to happen.  Even if you average in last season’s shooting % to give him a 14% career average, he is still going to need to increase his shots and goal total by nearly 50% to match last year’s output.

I agree the offense isn’t the biggest issue the Sabres face, but it’s good to discuss where the Sabres management thinks it’s scoring is coming from.

[tom webster]

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

He might get more opportunities, but he is unlikely to shoot 20%+ again.  Last season he scored 20 goals on only 97 shots.  The year before he scored 12 on 106 shots.  What we saw last season was a career 12% shooter get significant puck luck.  If he shoots at his prior career % (12%), he’s going to need to take 167 shots (or a  70% increase in shots) to match last year’s goal total. That’s is unlikely to happen.  Even if you average in last season’s shooting % to give him a 14% career average, he is still going to need to increase his shots and goal total by nearly 50% to match last year’s output.

I agree the offense isn’t the biggest issue the Sabres face, but it’s good to discuss where the Sabres management thinks it’s scoring is coming from.

Don’t disagree with any of this but the great thing about sports, at least in my opinion, is when the unexpected happens. It’s why I said regression is likely, but it’s  not a given.

[JohnC]

I’m not worried about compensating for the loss of losing JJP’s production. Benson, Quinn and Norris collective production should more than make up for it. In addition, adding Kesserling and keeping Byrum should improve the blue line unit and lower the goals against stat.
 

The issue that hovers over this team is the play of UPL. (As most everyone has already noted.) Two years ago, UPL gave the appearance that he could be a #1 NHL goalie. Last year, he regressed and created doubts about him. Will he regain his confidence and form next season? I don’t know? If he does, then we should be in the playoff race all season long. If not, the fanbase will be further eroded with apathy being the prevailing view toward this franchise. 

[triumph_communes]

Offense wasn’t the problem

 

sure there were games where it was completely stifled. But we were already down 2 goals and other team wasn’t opening up

[mjd1001]

9 hours ago, triumph_communes said:

Offense wasn’t the problem

 

sure there were games where it was completely stifled. But we were already down 2 goals and other team wasn’t opening up

 

9 hours ago, JohnC said:

I’m not worried about compensating for the loss of losing JJP’s production. Benson, Quinn and Norris collective production should more than make up for it. In addition, adding Kesserling and keeping Byrum should improve the blue line unit and lower the goals against stat.
 

The issue that hovers over this team is the play of UPL. (As most everyone has already noted.) Two years ago, UPL gave the appearance that he could be a #1 NHL goalie. Last year, he regressed and created doubts about him. Will he regain his confidence and form next season? I don’t know? If he does, then we should be in the playoff race all season long. If not, the fanbase will be further eroded with apathy being the prevailing view toward this franchise. 

Yep.  The Sabres last year ourscored the Leafs through the season. Yet Toronto finished with 108 points to Buffalo's 79.

And Toronto's D-men were Morgan Reilly (who had probably his worst season of his career), Oliver Ekman Larsson (who had his game fall off a cliff over the last 3 seasons comapred to early in his career), Chris Tanev (35 years old), Jake McCabe (31 years old, given up by both Buffalo and Chicago), Simon Benoit (undrafted 26 year old who was almost a -30 2 seasons ago), and Connor Timmins (yes, the new Sabre) as their most used 6 D-men. 

I would venture that the Sabres allowed more 'high danger' chances because of their Defensive lapses, but overall the Leafs even allowed more total shots on goal.

Its the Sabres goaltending. If UPL is even half way back to where he was the 2nd half of 2023-24, they make the playoffs.

Edited 9 hours ago by mjd1001

[JoeSchmoe]

Problem with UPL is his contract.

He'll be given every opportunity to prove how bad he is... And by that time he'll have us squarely out of a playoff spot.

[JohnC]

8 hours ago, JoeSchmoe said:

Problem with UPL is his contract.

He'll be given every opportunity to prove how bad he is... And by that time he'll have us squarely out of a playoff spot.

I don’t think the HC will have much patience with UPL this season if he falters. Too much is at stake to quickly fall way behind. There will be a quicker hook this season where Lyons replace him and Levi will be called up. That’s how I see thing’s playing out. 

[French Collection]

Just now, JohnC said:

I don’t think the HC will have much patience with UPL this season if he falters. Too much is at stake to quickly fall way behind. There will be a quicker hook this season where Lyons replace him and Levi will be called up. That’s how I see thing’s playing out. 

If he has a bad start send him down for a wake up call and try to find his game. I doubt any team takes him on waivers with that salary.

[JohnC]

3 hours ago, French Collection said:

If he has a bad start send him down for a wake up call and try to find his game. I doubt any team takes him on waivers with that salary.

My hope is the defense plays a more structured game that helps the goalie go back to playing a calmer and less lunging and frantic game that he did a couple of seasons ago. We need our goaltenders to be consistently solid. 

Edited 6 hours ago by JohnC

[GASabresIUFAN]

If y’all want to discuss (bash?) our goaltending, please put in another thread.  Thanks.

[pi2000]

Good post!   

However, it's not just JJPs 27g they're losing... it's the 30-40 he'll score this season and however many he scores during his prime years... 40, 50?.... see Reinhart, Sam.

GMKA is betting on Norris and Quinn to be significant contributors on offense.   

I believe it's possible, and I like the players, but it's certainly a gamble.

 

[mjd1001]

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

If y’all want to discuss (bash?) our goaltending, please put in another thread.  Thanks.

But you know, the only way the Sabres goaltending gets better is if we talk about in every single chance we get.

Edited 3 hours ago by mjd1001

[Doohickie]

Two ways to make up those goals:

1. Other players score the goals.
2. The goals are prevented by playing better defense.

But yeah, goaltending is part of the equation.

[LGR4GM]

2 hours ago, pi2000 said:

Good post!   

However, it's not just JJPs 27g they're losing... it's the 30-40 he'll score this season and however many he scores during his prime years... 40, 50?.... see Reinhart, Sam.

GMKA is betting on Norris and Quinn to be significant contributors on offense.   

I believe it's possible, and I like the players, but it's certainly a gamble.

 

Sam Reinhart has only scored over 40 once, twice if we want to count the 39 he had last year. He also shoots at 15.9% on average and manages 224 shots a year on average over the last 3 years. 

Peterka shoots at a career of 12.7% and was at 15.6% this past year. He only averages 199 shots over the last 2years. So Peterka will have to add 25 shots on average to his total and maintain his current peak of 15.6% just to get into the realm of Reinhart. Sam has had 4 30+ goal seasons. Peterka would have to go wild to get to 50. Can Peterka be a consistent 30g scorer, maybe. He will need to develop more than just his rush game. Can he hit 40 consistently, idk, I am not sold on that at all. 

[...]

UPL is good for a goal this year. So that makes 255. Bank on it. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

24 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

Two ways to make up those goals:

1. Other players score the goals.
2. The goals are prevented by playing better defense.

But yeah, goaltending is part of the equation.

You are talking about goal differential.  That is certainly a worthwhile discussion and worthy of it's own thread, but we are talking about how the Sabres replace the lost output.   

[Doohickie]

They don't have to replace it.  They can offset it.

[JohnC]

1 hour ago, Doohickie said:

Two ways to make up those goals:

1. Other players score the goals.
2. The goals are prevented by playing better defense.

But yeah, goaltending is part of the equation.

The topic is simply being addressed from a wider perspective. (As you point out.)  Multiple players can offset, make up compensate (whatever word one chooses to use) the goals differential. And the differential can also be calculated from the prevention side of the equation. It basically two sides of the same coin. If a strict rule of comparison is going to be applied in this topic then it shouldn't be permissible to add to the discussion of the players received in the trade (Doan and Kesserling) contributing to preventing goals if the trade didn't happen. Sometimes in the discussion of a topic the discussion strays from the strict stating of the topic. That's the nature of discourse i.e. it gets broaden. I don't see what the problem is.