Ryan Johnson, how a coaching staff screwed up by wasting a good a player

[LGR4GM]

Ryan Johnson ended up getting 561 minutes last year. Which is disappointing because he was pretty good in those minutes and the coaching staff, Wilford is still here fyi, failed to recognize and use him. Instead they took minutes away from him and gave them to others. So let's a take a look at Ryan Johnson and see where he was team wide. 

When looking at defenders I like corsi% as one of the stats because shot suppression is important. We will also have the gf%, HDCF%, and xGF%

There were 9 defenders on the Sabres last year that played at least 300mins or more. Ryan Johnson at Even Strength had a CF% of 52.32 which was 2nd overall. His xGF% was 51.37 and ranked 3rd. His HDC% was 52.97 and ranked 1st. His GF% was 55 and ranked 2nd. 

Chart form:

CF% 52.32 = 2nd

xGF% 51.37 = 3rd

HDCF% 52.97 = 1st

GF% 55.0 = 2nd

We have no pp numbers for him because only had 2mins of pp time and that sample size is far too small. Basically, Ryan Johnson only played at even strength. His numbers show us a few things, first is that he is one of our top 3 defenders, period. Dahlin is the only player with a better corsi. Samuelsson and Dahlin are the only players with better xGF%. Only Jokiharju has a better actual GF%. And Ryan Johnson is one of only 2 players on the entire freaking team with a HDCF% above 50% the other being Dahlin who he edged out by 0.13%. If you are starting next season with the goal of making the playoffs, your top 4 are Dahlin, Power, Samuelsson, and Johnson. It is another year I don't like the mitts trade, we upgraded the 1 position we have in spades. If one of these guys was a righty than cool but that isn't how it looks. If I were Ruff, I would do Dahlin - Johnson, Power - Muel, Byram - Clifton. It gives each pair a pure offensive threat and a more reliable 2way defender. 

Ryan Johnson could also be used as a trade piece but in his case, I would play him regularly to get that value up because he doesn't hurt a damn thing on the ice accept the opponents abilities to score goals. Ryan Johnson is a top 4 defender in the NHL. 

[Ctaeth]

My memory is he played a lot with EJ.  Imo, that makes his season even that much more impressive in light of the fact that EJ was so atrocious.

He wasn't flashy (aside from that one stretch pass in his debut.   To skinner i think?), but he seemed extremely effective for a rookie 

[GASabresIUFAN]

32 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Ryan Johnson could also be used as a trade piece but in his case, I would play him regularly to get that value up because he doesn't hurt a damn thing on the ice accept the opponents abilities to score goals. Ryan Johnson is a top 4 defender in the NHL. 

.... and you hated the draft pick 🙂

I totally agree with you on Ryan Johnson.  He had a couple of bad games, but was good most of the time.  He earned a role last season and should have stayed in the NHL playing a regular shift.  He reminds me of Hank Tallinder.

I also like your pairings for next season and agree with your thoughts on the Mitts trade.  Getting Byram is nice, but it added LHD depth where it wasn't needed and left a gapping hole at center and tossed away our only legit playmaker.  The decisions on Benson, Johnson, Mitts, Comrie, Levi and others have soldified for me that KA is the worst GM in the NHL and has no idea how to build a decent roster much less a playoff team. 

[dudacek]

I’m not going to dismiss the above. I like Johnson and I respect analytics.

But what I saw was a guy who was got the most sheltered use out of any Sabre D and held his own in those minutes.

He had 59% Ozone starts and his less than 14 minutes per were rarely in key situations, or against tough players.

The kid has great feet and I loved the way he can elude the forecheck and flip the ice. Outside of that, I didn’t see him making many plays.

His in-zone coverage looked decent and he defended the rush pretty well. He got overpowered in physical matchups and his first pass wasn’t as good as it looked at lower levels. He brought little to no edge and little to no offence. He was pretty good with the puck early, but I thought he was coughing it up more later on. Didn’t PK or PP.

I thought in the weeks prior to his demotion Bryson outplayed him, which certainly wasn’t my personal bias prior.

One could argue he deserved a longer look in tougher situations. One could also argue that his analytics are a case of a guy succeeding because the coaches protected him and never threw him in over his head.

 

Edited April 29 by dudacek

[kas23]

The good news is Lindy likes his elite defensemen. Should use our stable of young defenders very well. 

[LGR4GM]

15 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

.... and you hated the draft pick 🙂

I to this day would still rather have Kaliyev, Pinto, or Hoglander over Ryan Johnson. 

In fact I won't be shocked if we trade Johnson in a package for a player like the 3 here. 

[pastajoe]

I’m hoping Lindy hires a quality assistant coach with defensive experience like Jay McKee.

[LGR4GM]

14 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I’m not going to dismiss the above. I like Johnson and I respect analytics.

But what I saw was a guy who was got the most sheltered use out of any Sabre D and held his own in those minutes.

He had 59% Ozone starts and his less than 14 minutes per were rarely in key situations, or against tough players.

The kid has great feet and I loved the way he can elude the forecheck and flip the ice. Outside of that, I didn’t see him making many plays.

His in-zone coverage looked decent and he defended the rush pretty well. He got overpowered in physical matchups and his first pass wasn’t as good as it looked at lower levels. He brought little to no edge and little to no offence. He was pretty good with the puck early, but I thought he was coughing it up more later on. Didn’t PK or PP.

I thought in the weeks prior to his demotion Bryson outplayed him, which certainly wasn’t my personal bias prior.

One could argue he deserved a longer look in tougher situations. One could also argue that his analytics are a case of a guy succeeding because the coaches protected him and never threw him in over his head.

 

This take is why I wouldn't have an issue with trading Johnson in a package for something we need. All of this logically tracks as well. 

[pi2000]

He looked better in Buffalo than he does in Rochester. 

[That Aud Smell]

18 minutes ago, dudacek said:

what I saw was a guy who was got the most sheltered use out of any Sabre D and held his own in those minutes.

He had 59% Ozone starts and his less than 14 minutes per were rarely in key situations, or against tough players.

These are responsive to questions I had. The attractive fancy stat numbers cited by the OP don’t mean a lot if he was being sheltered by ozone starts and lower tier competition.

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

Ryan Johnson is a top 4 defender in the NHL. 

And my questions/concerns make me dubious of this conclusion.

[DarthEbriate]

He’s a NHL caliber defensive puck-moving defenseman. And that’s good.

But he’s effectively the lefty version of Joker, which has less value.

And he lacks the experience of Bryson which limits his value to the Sabres on-ice right now (but should increase his value in a trade because of potential). And because of draft pedigree, he’ll likely be pricier than Bryson on his next contract.

Byram should easily keep Johnson as the 7 or off the roster entirely. 

[Doohickie]

In the Mitts discussion, people have argued that Byram >>> Ryan Johnson.  I'm not sure I agree.  I think Johnson will emerge this season as a top 4 defender.  His game coming out of college was mature.  He doesn't make a lot of mistakes but he definitely gets the puck out of the zone and up ice.

And I still think that Byram may turn out to be more like Risto than people want to admit.

For both these players I'm looking forward to how Lindy deploys them.  Maybe he can get them to both be top shelf players.

[Doohickie]

33 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

Byram should easily keep Johnson as the 7 or off the roster entirely. 

That's precisely part of the reason I'm not keen on the trade to acquire Byram:  I'm not sure there as a hole there to fill.  Johnson may well turn out to be that player we need on defense, but the fact that Mitts was traded for Byram will inflate Byram's perceived value to the team, not because he's better, but because he costed more to acquire.

[K-9]

1 hour ago, pi2000 said:

He looked better in Buffalo than he does in Rochester. 

Great point. He’s had some outstanding moments in the A, but it’s readily apparent that he still has a lot to work on in his game. I’m not convinced that he doesn’t need another year with the Amerks. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

I to this day would still rather have Kaliyev, Pinto, or Hoglander over Ryan Johnson. 

In fact I won't be shocked if we trade Johnson in a package for a player like the 3 here. 

Honestly, I'm not impressed with either Hoglander or Kaliyev as NHLers so far.  Pinto, other than the gambling thing, would be a good addition.

[Jorcus]

2 hours ago, pi2000 said:

He looked better in Buffalo than he does in Rochester. 

Watching Rochester in the D zone vs Buffalo in the D zone is like night and day. Buffalo moves the puck smartly behind the net and the forwards will attack the the man with the puck. Rochester plays a very passive defense that closes into a tight box and waves sticks at players. The only reason Rochester is where they are right now is Levi, and the best D man they have is Nikita Novikov. What steal the Sabres got by drafting him in the 6th round. The expectation was he wanted to stay in Russia but when war breaks out plans change. Lindy is going to take him over Johnson because we have a lot of players like Johnson but we don't have big shut down D men like Nikita. 

[PerreaultForever]

Too many of the same/similar guy. This is pretty much Adam's draft history. Johnson doesn't impress me so I have no issue with him sent down to develop. He still has a lot to learn about playing D. (as do many of the D men on the roster). As to the title of the thread, wasting? screwed up? The expectation that he was ready to step into the NHL is the only screwed up thing. Heck, Power's not ready either. 

[Crusader1969]

37 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

Too many of the same/similar guy. This is pretty much Adam's draft history. Johnson doesn't impress me so I have no issue with him sent down to develop. He still has a lot to learn about playing D. (as do many of the D men on the roster). As to the title of the thread, wasting? screwed up? The expectation that he was ready to step into the NHL is the only screwed up thing. Heck, Power's not ready either. 

 

 

first of all, Adams didn't draft Johnson who is a 6'1 195lbs

Second  here are the Dmen drafted by Adams  

1) Power 6'5
2) Novikov  6'3
3) Lindgren 6'0
4) Strbak   6'2
5) McCarthy 6'2
6) Keohane  6'4
7) Panocha 6'2

 

who are the guys that are same / similar drafted by Adams?   

 

 

Edited April 29 by Crusader1969

[GASabresIUFAN]

They should run a buy one get one free sale.

[Crusader1969]

1 hour ago, Jorcus said:

Watching Rochester in the D zone vs Buffalo in the D zone is like night and day. Buffalo moves the puck smartly behind the net and the forwards will attack the the man with the puck. Rochester plays a very passive defense that closes into a tight box and waves sticks at players. The only reason Rochester is where they are right now is Levi, and the best D man they have is Nikita Novikov. What steal the Sabres got by drafting him in the 6th round. The expectation was he wanted to stay in Russia but when war breaks out plans change. Lindy is going to take him over Johnson because we have a lot of players like Johnson but we don't have big shut down D men like Nikita. 

ummm  whats Samuelsson? 

[Night Train]

7 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

ummm  whats Samuelsson? 

So far, glass... I hope he finds a workout coach. 

[Pimlach]

4 hours ago, pi2000 said:

He looked better in Buffalo than he does in Rochester. 

Why is that?  Is it because he played shelter minutes in Buffalo and he is doing more in tougher situations in Roch?  

[Pimlach]

1 hour ago, Jorcus said:

Watching Rochester in the D zone vs Buffalo in the D zone is like night and day. Buffalo moves the puck smartly behind the net and the forwards will attack the the man with the puck. Rochester plays a very passive defense that closes into a tight box and waves sticks at players. The only reason Rochester is where they are right now is Levi, and the best D man they have is Nikita Novikov. What steal the Sabres got by drafting him in the 6th round. The expectation was he wanted to stay in Russia but when war breaks out plans change. Lindy is going to take him over Johnson because we have a lot of players like Johnson but we don't have big shut down D men like Nikita. 

If this is true it needs to fixed immediately. 

They should play the same system.   This is incredible to hear that they don't.  

[DarthEbriate]

2 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

If this is true it needs to fixed immediately. 

They should play the same system.   This is incredible to hear that they don't.  

I think this is partially that the Sabres blue line, while younger than the Amerks, is also entirely filled with top-32 picks. And experienced guys in Bryson and Clifton. 

[Pimlach]

9 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

I think this is partially that the Sabres blue line, while younger than the Amerks, is also entirely filled with top-32 picks. And experienced guys in Bryson and Clifton. 

Still don't like the reason.  

I hope Lindy can fix the coaching staff, and put in a common system because the Granato's system was garbage in the NHL.