Has the Adams rebuild failed completely?

[dudacek]

12 hours ago, SwampD said:

Of course he won’t. It’s way cheaper to refill the bottom 6. And dudachek is right, that will not fix this team, anyway. Until there is any indication that EEE has been rescinded, we’re pretty much screwed.

@Brawndohas touched on this few times too, and hasn’t got a ton of traction on here yet.

But this is a year where it should. The idea of keeping space set aside for internal raises starts to lose its heft when you have the number of long-term commitments that the Sabres now have.

Once they pay UPL and maybe Byram, they’ve basically got their core locked up. The Quinns and Peterkas are 5 years away from UFA status. They will have to do what all the adult teams do, make hard decisions on who to keep. Teams don’t have cores of 10.

The Sabres were $8M under the cap this year. They didn’t have to be then and they don’t have to be now.

They are $23M under the cap for next year. Once they pay/replace UPL, Joki, Krebs, Girgensons, they should have at least $10M available to fill the roster spots occupied Olofsson, Jost and Robinson.

Adams needs to spend that cap space on real players.

11 hours ago, Thorny said:

Than the next closest ALL TIME 

It’s even more crazy when you look at the competition.

New Jersey has been terrible. They’ve missed 10 times in the past 12 years. But they still managed to make it twice.

Florida was worse: 16 times in 18 years. But they still managed to make it twice.

Columbus missed 11 of their first 13 seasons. But still got there twice.

Coyotes 11 of 12. Ottawa 6 in a row and 7 of the past 8. Vancouver 7 of the past 8. Detroit 8 in a row.

Bad teams in the NHL post lockout tend to stay bad for a while, but they usually sneak in at least one outlier.

But the Sabres, nope. It’s really quite remarkable.

12 hours ago, SwampD said:

 

11 hours ago, Thorny said:

 

Edited May 12 by dudacek

[tom webster]

8 hours ago, GoPuckYourself said:

Not sure what you mean, 4 years of Tim Murray, 3 years of Botteril, going on 5 years of Adams.

Teams don’t fire GM’s that quickly. Pegula gets more hate around the league for how quickly he has changed course, not for poor hires.

The average tenure of an NHL GM is roughly 5.5 years and they normally get to hire 2.2 coaches before being dismissed.

Edited May 12 by tom webster

[Wyldnwoody44]

I know we're saying All Time, but the bills missed for... 17 years!! I get it's harder in football than hockey, but man, that's a looooonnnnng time. 

What would happen if we hit 17 with the Sabres... I mean, at that point, the team would have to move no 

[Pimlach]

11 hours ago, dudacek said:

The Sabres have rebuilt from the bottom 4 times before:

• Punch: .404, .327, 564, .487, .706 stayed good but never got over the hump
• Gerry Meehan: .400, .531, .519, .613, .506 faded and reset under Muckler
• Tim Murray: .317, .329, .494, .476, failed and reset under Botterill
• Jason Botterill: .378, .463, .493, Botterill fired for insubordination
• Kevyn Adams: .330, .457, .555, .512

They've also tried to rebuild with youth twice without fully bottoming out, when Scotty started collecting 1st rounders, and when Darcy traded Hasek

• Scotty: .581, .556, .684, .563, .500 Bowman fired the next season as his rebuild failed
• Darcy: .500, .439, .518, LO, .671 team stayed mostly good before free agency chewed it away

Year 4 results haven't proved to be a great indicator of success or failure of any particular build. In fact, it looks like it's not unusual to fall back in the 4th year of this type of build. The pattern Adams seems to be most closely following is that of Punch. We can only hope.

[LGR4GM]

Adams has failed. This team isn't even a playoff team let alone a contender. He's been complacent and slow to react, preferring loyalty to his players over building a winning franchise. Until he proves otherwise, I expect him to continue his safe and soft handling of the team. 

[GoPuckYourself]

2 hours ago, tom webster said:

Teams don’t fire GM’s that quickly. Pegula gets more hate around the league for how quickly he has changed course, not for poor hires.

The average tenure of an NHL GM is roughly 5.5 years and they normally get to hire 2.2 coaches before being dismissed.

I'll agree to disagree and 13 seasons of no playoffs is absolutely insane considering half the teams make it. I don't know what more we needed to see from Murray, Botteril and now Adams but I guess some still believe in him apparantly.

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, Wyldnwoody44 said:

I know we're saying All Time, but the bills missed for... 17 years!! I get it's harder in football than hockey, but man, that's a looooonnnnng time. 

What would happen if we hit 17 with the Sabres... I mean, at that point, the team would have to move no 

NHL was so easy for when I was a kid - 16 of 21 teams made it. NFL was so hard - just 10 of 30 qualified And that’s how it’s been cemented in my head.

Now the NHL is 16 of 32 and the NFL 14 of 32.

Kinda snuck up on me how much that has changed.

[Archie Lee]

23 minutes ago, GoPuckYourself said:

I'll agree to disagree and 13 seasons of no playoffs is absolutely insane considering half the teams make it. I don't know what more we needed to see from Murray, Botteril and now Adams but I guess some still believe in him apparantly.

I don't think he was expressing an opinion on Adams level of success.  He was pointing out that GM's don't get fired as often as people think (certainly not at the same rate as head coaches).

I've lost a lot of faith in Adams going back to July 1, 2023.  I can't understand, though, how anyone would think the best option is for Pegula to pick another GM.  The best option for now is to hope that Adams, who I think is clearly a bright guy, has learned from his mistakes and properly course corrects this off-season.  I'm skeptical, but I prefer to see what Adams does in partnership with Ruff over having Pegula making a change.

[Archie Lee]

22 minutes ago, dudacek said:

NHL was so easy for when I was a kid - 16 of 21 teams made it. NFL was so hard - just 10 of 30 qualified And that’s how it’s been cemented in my head.

Now the NHL is 16 of 32 and the NFL 14 of 32.

Kinda snuck up on me how much that has changed.

For much of my life I assumed I would one day see the Sabres win the Stanley Cup.  That assumption was formed in the era of the 16-21 team NHL (75%+ of teams in the playoffs).  Setting aside the team's ineptitude for the past 13 years, I've come to accept that it is now less than likely that they will win a Cup in my lifetime.  This does not cause me any stress or frustration.

In a 32 team (50% in the playoffs) NHL, I do think it is time that we see winning a Conference Championship as the great achievement that it is.  Winning a Conference Championship in the NHL today is a greater feat than winning the Cup was at anytime prior to this century (in my view).  It's time for teams to pick up the Prince of Wales and Clarence Campbell trophies and skate them around the ice and pose for photos.  Nothing about celebrating that level of achievement has to mean that they have lost focus on the biggest prize (the Cup). 

[JustOneParade]

1 hour ago, Wyldnwoody44 said:

I know we're saying All Time, but the bills missed for... 17 years!! I get it's harder in football than hockey, but man, that's a looooonnnnng time. 

What would happen if we hit 17 with the Sabres... I mean, at that point, the team would have to move no 

COVID crowds at the KBC

[Pimlach]

41 minutes ago, dudacek said:

NHL was so easy for when I was a kid - 16 of 21 teams made it. NFL was so hard - just 10 of 30 qualified And that’s how it’s been cemented in my head.

Now the NHL is 16 of 32 and the NFL 14 of 32.

Kinda snuck up on me how much that has changed.

 

[Pimlach]

23 minutes ago, Archie Lee said:

I don't think he was expressing an opinion on Adams level of success.  He was pointing out that GM's don't get fired as often as people think (certainly not at the same rate as head coaches).

I've lost a lot of faith in Adams going back to July 1, 2023.  I can't understand, though, how anyone would think the best option is for Pegula to pick another GM.  The best option for now is to hope that Adams, who I think is clearly a bright guy, has learned from his mistakes and properly course corrects this off-season.  I'm skeptical, but I prefer to see what Adams does in partnership with Ruff over having Pegula making a change.

Baseball is the only major sport in North America like you describe.   They have two separate leagues and the AL and NL pennant winners get some regardless of the World Series outcome. 

In football losing the Super Bowl is very hard on the the losing team.  The Bills 4 straight AFC Conference Championship were often overlooked and they were the butt of many jokes.  It took about a decade or more for that to wear off.    

In the NHL no one remembers the Stanley Cup loser, or the Presidents Trophy winner for that matter.  

[GoPuckYourself]

2 hours ago, Archie Lee said:

I don't think he was expressing an opinion on Adams level of success.  He was pointing out that GM's don't get fired as often as people think (certainly not at the same rate as head coaches).

I've lost a lot of faith in Adams going back to July 1, 2023.  I can't understand, though, how anyone would think the best option is for Pegula to pick another GM.  The best option for now is to hope that Adams, who I think is clearly a bright guy, has learned from his mistakes and properly course corrects this off-season.  I'm skeptical, but I prefer to see what Adams does in partnership with Ruff over having Pegula making a change.

I never once said anything about GM's being fired at the same rate as head coaches. 

I can't understand how anyone can say we need a 5th year to see what this GM can do. Also you say Adams is "clearly" a bright guy like it's fact, I guess we just see it differently and that's cool. Not everyone agrees with my take and I get that, I just don't know what I need to see in year 5 of the Kevin Adams experience that I haven't in years 1-4? I hope he does well obviously and we turn it around . He finally gets to show what he can do with a legit HC so we'll see.

[Archie Lee]

22 minutes ago, GoPuckYourself said:

I never once said anything about GM's being fired at the same rate as head coaches. 

I can't understand how anyone can say we need a 5th year to see what this GM can do. Also you say Adams is "clearly" a bright guy like it's fact, I guess we just see it differently and that's cool. Not everyone agrees with my take and I get that, I just don't know what I need to see in year 5 of the Kevin Adams experience that I haven't in years 1-4? I hope he does well obviously and we turn it around . He finally gets to show what he can do with a legit HC so we'll see.

I’m not trying to convince you of anything on Adams. TW posted that GMs don’t get fired that quickly and you replied that you disagree. Sorry then, what was it about his post that you were disagreeing with? 

I don’t think it takes 5 years for a GM to turn around a franchise and I would lose no sleep is Adams was fired today. For now though, I have more faith in Adams figuring this out than I have in Pegula getting it right on his 5th GM. 

Edited May 12 by Archie Lee

[Sabres Fan in NS]

No.

[PerreaultForever]

In general coaches get 2-3 years and GMs get 4-5 but it depends on the expectation level of the franchise and the level of success these people achieve of course. 

Prior to Adams, Pegula has given our GMs less time than this which would seem to indicate a level of impatience and expectation, but his decision to never turn the franchise management over to an experienced GM indicates his desire to control them. I personally think experienced candidates have said no thanks to that owner meddling situation. I could be wrong.

I am hoping that both Adams and Pegula respect Ruff enough to allow him to be the loudest voice in the room on major decisions going forward. In that way (to some extent) we will finally have an experienced veteran "in charge". 

One can hope.  

[Thorny]

10 hours ago, GoPuckYourself said:

I'll agree to disagree and 13 seasons of no playoffs is absolutely insane considering half the teams make it. I don't know what more we needed to see from Murray, Botteril and now Adams but I guess some still believe in him apparantly.

He’s hit the 2 coaches mark and he’s hitting 5 years this year. Especially cause you’d expect to fall on the below average side of things considering the severely below average performance, nonetheless we reach his likely endpoint if we miss this coming season 

Edited May 12 by Thorny

[Taro T]

Has it failed COMPLETELY?  No, but it has clearly failed.

Thing is, with the ages that the key players are, a significant portion of the entire team is still literally years from their peaks/primes.  Can the players mentioned in the poll be a winning core?  Yes, they may.  But there's so few guys on this team that are actually in their primes.  That's what was so frustrating about the Mittelstadt trade.  They and we went through all the growing pains of Mittelstadt and finally got to watch him enter his peak and look pretty darn good only to trade him away for a guy that might be really good when he reaches his prime but he's a 22 yo D-man.  We're 4 years away from seeing Bowen Byram at his peak.  Jokiharju is what he is but he and Clifton are the only D-men on the team that're older than Dahlin who is also about to enter his prime years.  They have what very well could be a very strong D-corps come 2028 but they're almost all to a man too young for what they get asked to do.  

The same can be said of the goaltending.  They have a tandem that in 3-4 years might be the best in the league, but it isn't 2027 today, it's 2024.

The forward ranks have a lot of that issue too, but they actually have a full line of guys in their prime (one of whom should be a 3rd liner, not a 1st liner but that's not really on Adams.  He didn't give the guy $9MM/yr and a full NMC) a middle 6 guy and a couple of 4th line wingers in theirs as well.

Honestly believe that Adams and Granato expected they'd gotten to the point that they would build on the '22-'23 season and that they would be a playoff team this year.  (So, again, the plan has failed to this point.)  And that led to the lack of moves in the off-season and spending almost the entire preseason figuring out who would be the late season call ups when injuries hit rather than letting the lines and pairings that would be needed in the regular season get their chemistry back.  Their belief in where they were got this kid to buy in as well even though other than bringing in Clifton which only partially addressed one of the needs they had heading into last year they didn't bring in ANY of the pieces that Adams should've brought in.

But, the flip side of it is, because the team IS so young they necessarily should be better simply by being a full year closer to their primes than they were last October.  Plus, having an actual coach that will actually coach should be worth some points as well.  The big question being was Ruff's only good season out of the last 5 or so years on him or on Andrew Brunette and can he repeat that sort of improvement that the Devils saw 2 years ago?  Hoping that works, but still would really have liked to get Gallant behind the bench.  And will that increase in talent be enough to have them able to get where they need to be.

IF Adams is correct and the kids getting a lot of experience at a younger age than most get will help them elevate their play earlier than it would normally have happened and this team should be able to get in the playoffs this year because barring major restructuring of teams in the East, there are only 5 good teams in the East.  (At least prior to draft day trades and July signings.)

Adams is on record saying he likes the D and Goalies.  But he would like to add a top 6 winger and a 4C (3C maybe considering Krebs doesn't seem quite ready to even be a 4C some nights) that can win faceoffs and play the PK.  That's what he was saying after the trade deadline.  Would be interested in hearing how those evaluations might have changed since then.

[7+6=13]

Considering how many players have left our organization and gone on to be great, play well, find a role and stay in the NHL - there's no question IMO, we get players.  I think we have them now and never see their best.  

I blame the GM's a little but mostly coaching.  We kept messing around with it.  Ruff will at the very least expose, good or bad, what we are/have/need. If history has repeated itself, the players are here to be at the bottom of the top 8 (playoffs).

[Derrico]

12 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Adams has failed. This team isn't even a playoff team let alone a contender. He's been complacent and slow to react, preferring loyalty to his players over building a winning franchise. Until he proves otherwise, I expect him to continue his safe and soft handling of the team. 

Maybe it’s all talk.  At this point I also need to see it to believe it.  But Adams is sure sounding different the last couple of post season pressers/interviews.  Again, I need to see it but maybe he finally realizes his ass is on the line.  I heard more urgency than ‘can’t block the prospects’ we’ve heard in off seasons past.  I think he has a big summer. 

[GoPuckYourself]

8 hours ago, Archie Lee said:

I’m not trying to convince you of anything on Adams. TW posted that GMs don’t get fired that quickly and you replied that you disagree. Sorry then, what was it about his post that you were disagreeing with? 

I don’t think it takes 5 years for a GM to turn around a franchise and I would lose no sleep is Adams was fired today. For now though, I have more faith in Adams figuring this out than I have in Pegula getting it right on his 5th GM. 

You wrote a reply, I replied to your statement that I disagree with your take that. Now I'm not really sure what you're talking about, I might be lost in translation here.

 

[GoPuckYourself]

2 hours ago, Thorny said:

He’s hit the 2 coaches mark and he’s hitting 5 years this year. Especially cause you’d expect to fall on the below average side of things considering the severely below average performance, nonetheless we reach his likely endpoint if we miss this coming season 

I hope I'm wrong and all Adams needs is a HC the caliber of Lindy Ruff to make things work. 

[Night Train]

9 hours ago, GoPuckYourself said:

I hope I'm wrong and all Adams needs is a HC the caliber of Lindy Ruff to make things work. 

In addition to 3-4 more players with grit.  Leadership is horribly lacking. 

[USMCSnyper]

This offseason is the tipping point for Adams, IMO. He cant own the whole 13 years of futility.  He has enough assets to make the team better and has an experienced coach. If he is unable to make the moves needed, then he needs to go. I think it is apparent he falls in love with his own players and over values them. That needs to stop NOW, or he will be the captain of the 14 year old missing the playoffs. 2 more years and our drought can drive us to the bridge to jump off of. lol

[Pimlach]

Ruff will only be slightly better than Granato with the very same line-up.  Maybe that gets them in the 8th spot but I doubt it.  

That roster right now is worse without a full season with Mitts.  That trade might have brought in the better player, but they are weak at center, and their 2 best centers are both coming off of down seasons and must get back to what Adams thought they were.  

Ruff talked about the little things - winning key faceoffs, shutting down an opponent when you get a lead, being harder to play against - all of that means they better practice harder, play smarter and grittier,  and the realization that they need to get some immediate help.  

Ruff will need to be helping with trades and FA signings.  Vet players still in their prime want to win, they are more likely to listen to Ruff's message than to Adams.  

Edited May 13 by Pimlach