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January is THE Month We Find Out if This Team Has a Chance


CallawaySabres

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I keep writing these guys off and won't really believe anything has changed until they start winning 3 out of 4 a few times. They need to stay afloat until Tuch and Quinn are back and then January looks like the easiest schedule of the entire year. Put together a few wins here in December and then make the charge in January. 

I know this is all wishful thinking but it's all I got right now. Hopefully UPL and Levi can right the ship while this group can figure out how to win 2 games in a row. It's now or never with these clowns. Go Sabes

https://www.nhl.com/sabres/schedule/2024-01-02

 

Edited by CallawaySabres
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There are some winnable games and some very rough games coming up! The Avs and Vegas are not going to be easy. This team has shown it can take down top team in their buildings though. Hopefully we will get Greenway and Tuch back before then. Love to see Greenway with the new guy on a line, maybe with Krebs, who has been playing really good as of late.

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I heard someone who talks about the league for a living say it - I can't recall who and I don't have any data but it sounds right: The playoff picture is substantially set by American Thanksgiving. I'm sure there are one or two (?) exceptions every season, but, for the super majority of teams that make it, they are in a playoff position on the fourth Thursday of November.

If the Sabres aren't NHL .500 by the new year, I will hold out no hope for their playoff chances.

38 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

They are 5 under DeLuca .500 with 11 games left in December.

8-3 gets them to DeLuca .500 as of New Year's, and means they are very much in the playoff race.

7-4 means they are 2 under, and still alive.

Ya - this here is the bare minimum.

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15 minutes ago, Weave said:

Nope.  We are in heroic run to 9th territory. Too many games in hand by teams near us, and too many teams to leapfrog.

Expect you are right @Weave

We will all root for them to accomplish their goal of playoff hockey this season… but think the Sabres fate has been sealed by management, coaches, and player mistakes… offseason, preseason, and in season… 

What last night proved is their promise… and ability to compete when they want to… as a team…

Playoffs or not, we will be entertained the rest of the season at least.

 

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7 minutes ago, JohninMinn. said:

I'm taking the one game at a time approach. I'm convinced there is more talent on this team than most others. All they need is confidence.

Yeah, they’ve dug a hole to start the season, but this is the approach they need. It is a marathon not a print and they need to obey the old cliche, one game at a time.

The Bruins have really good goaltending, good Dmen but they are worse than their record imo. One game doesn’t make a season but their forwards shouldn’t exactly instill fear in anyone. Coyle and Zacha as 1&2 C. Beecher, Heiden, Lauko, Frederic, Geekie, Steen and JVR are all 3rd liners at best.

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Just now, Sabres Fan in NS said:

A great Historian once said ...

*it wasn't over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor and it aint over now .. who's with me .. LET'S GO !!*

Did he end up graduating?

Baby steps but I am liking the way they played, they need to stay at that level for a bit to get me back to not needing as much hopium.

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4 hours ago, That Aud Smell said:

I heard someone who talks about the league for a living say it - I can't recall who and I don't have any data but it sounds right: The playoff picture is substantially set by American Thanksgiving. I'm sure there are one or two (?) exceptions every season, but, for the super majority of teams that make it, they are in a playoff position on the fourth Thursday of November.

If the Sabres aren't NHL .500 by the new year, I will hold out no hope for their playoff chances.

Ya - this here is the bare minimum.

There was a big article on ESPN+ a few weeks back. It varies, but the so far a maximum of 5 teams not in playoff positions by American Thanksgiving have made it in any given year.
image.png.2b089fee5a0180396a23d25127a13e9a.png

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Just like almost every single year, 95 points MIGHT get you in, but 98 is the number you want to shoot for to just about guarantee it.  Right now in terms of point percentage, the last spot is held by a team with .577 which is about 95 points at the moment.

So when we find out about this team...its a sliding scale. It doesn't look good now, a winning streak makes it look better. But the optimist in me says they aren't out of it until there is no chance they can get 'back into it'.   If things are awful now, but a 5 game win streak puts them back "into it", then as long as there is still a chance for that 5 game win streak, they aren't out of it.

But the numbers.....to get to 98 points they need to get 74 points in the next 55 games. That means they need almost 68 percent of possible points. That is about a 110 point pace for the rest of the year.  With Tuch still hurt, with Cozens not playing well at all, with Tage probably not yet 100%.  Possible? yes, but it looks really tough already.

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