Prospect pool, summer 2023

[French Collection]

1 hour ago, Brawndo said:

 

I’m concerned about his rebound control.

[GASabresIUFAN]

 

https://thehockeynews.com/news/2023-24-prospect-pool-overview-buffalo-sabres

Quote

 

STRENGTHS

The Sabres have four center prospects who could very well be the framework for a deep NHL roster at the position in five years when they are all established. That’s without including Thompson (25 years old) and Cozens (22). This means it's likely a couple of Savoie, Östlund, Kulich or Wahlberg will move to the wing. That said, a center pool of Thompson, Cozens, Östlund and Wahlberg with Savoie and Kulich could be flanked with wing prospects such as Benson and Rosen. Center is the strength of the Sabres prospect pool, but because of how deep they are, their forward depth as a whole is stellar.

 

 

[dudacek]

Some frank talk from James Patrick with Marty and Duffer:

On Krebs: loves his energy and his constant thirst for getting better. Credits him for establishing the winning culture in Winnipeg. Said training him to not do it all him self was one of his major coaching challenges. Says Peyton still thinks he can be a top 6 NHL forward but Patrick believes the league will tell him what he is. Compared his situation to Guy Carbonneau and the transition Carbonneau had to make from QMJHL stud to the quintessential 3rd-line centre.

On Savoie: 50/50 on whether he can be in the NHL this year. Respects his effort and his all-around game and says he could have been the best point producer in junior hockey this year. Says he needs to raise him game a level and learn how to get inside.

On Benson: Unequivocally, the best junior-age player he's ever coached. Consistently created more offensive chances than anyone else on a stacked team, didn't give anything away on defence, and made everyone he played with better. He said he couldn't believe he dropped as far as he did, and implied he wasn't at all in the Sabres plans prior to the draft, but they just couldn't allow his talent to slip by.

[LGR4GM]

Leinonen is injured. Out until October. 

[JohnC]

34 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Some frank talk from James Patrick with Marty and Duffer:

On Krebs: loves his energy and his constant thirst for getting better. Credits him for establishing the winning culture in Winnipeg. Said training him to not do it all him self was one of his major coaching challenges. Says Peyton still thinks he can be a top 6 NHL forward but Patrick believes the league will tell him what he is. Compared his situation to Guy Carbonneau and the transition Carbonneau had to make from QMJHL stud to the quintessential 3rd-line centre.

On Savoie: 50/50 on whether he can be in the NHL this year. Respects his effort and his all-around game and says he could have been the best point producer in junior hockey this year. Says he needs to raise him game a level and learn how to get inside.

On Benson: Unequivocally, the best junior-age player he's ever coached. Consistently created more offensive chances than anyone else on a stacked team, didn't give anything away on defence, and made everyone he played with better. He said he couldn't believe he dropped as far as he did, and implied he wasn't at all in the Sabres plans prior to the draft, but they just couldn't allow his talent to slip by.

There will be a number of intriguing storylines entering this season associated with our young player. Krebs, Levi, Power, JJ, (Quinn before being injured) are going to be fun to follow to see how quickly they elevate their games. Internal improvement more than outside additions will be a more critical factor for team success. 

The best thing that happened to Krebs is that he was traded to a Granato coached team. The HC moving him to the Okposo/Girgs line was an astute move for his development. Now, I would like to see him centering a line with better finishers. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

https://theathletic.com/4805966/2023/08/28/nhl-players-prospects-under-23-connor-bedard/

Players listed 1-168.

6.  Cozens - Bubble Elite

13. Power - NHL All-star

27. Quinn - Top of the lineup player

64. Benson - Bubble top of the lineup player - middle of the lineup

70. JJP - Bubble top of the lineup player - middle of the lineup

80. Kulich - Bubble top of the lineup player - middle of the lineup

91. Östlund - Middle of the lineup player

100. Savoie - Middle of the lineup player

126. Krebs - Middle of the lineup player

138. Wahlberg - Middle of the lineup player

139. Strbak - Middle of the lineup player

165. Levi - Middle of the lineup player

 

 

 

[steveoath]

3 players who have never played an NHL game above cousins? 

[LGR4GM]

7 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

https://theathletic.com/4805966/2023/08/28/nhl-players-prospects-under-23-connor-bedard/

Players listed 1-168.

6.  Cozens - Bubble Elite

13. Power - NHL All-star

27. Quinn - Top of the lineup player

64. Benson - Bubble top of the lineup player - middle of the lineup

70. JJP - Bubble top of the lineup player - middle of the lineup

80. Kulich - Bubble top of the lineup player - middle of the lineup

91. Östlund - Middle of the lineup player

100. Savoie - Middle of the lineup player

126. Krebs - Middle of the lineup player

138. Wahlberg - Middle of the lineup player

139. Strbak - Middle of the lineup player

165. Levi - Middle of the lineup player

 

 

 

Lol, Levi at 165 and Benson at 64. Those are things the Athletic could write, they'd be wrong, but the could write them. 

[steveoath]

17 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Lol, Levi at 165 and Benson at 64. Those are things the Athletic could write, they'd be wrong, but the could write them. 

I don't understand how Pronman works. 

[Archie Lee]

Pronman ranking Levi where he did means he projects him to have an NHL career as a tandem goalie. I think he is low on Levi, but I’m not sure it is the insult many are reading it as. 

[French Collection]

15 minutes ago, Archie Lee said:

Pronman ranking Levi where he did means he projects him to have an NHL career as a tandem goalie. I think he is low on Levi, but I’m not sure it is the insult many are reading it as. 

Levi should find some motivation from people doubting his potential.

The Hockey News had a discussion yesterday about the next great goalie. The choices were Wallstedt, Wolf or Askarov.

[Night Train]

15 hours ago, dudacek said:

Some frank talk from James Patrick with Marty and Duffer:

On Krebs: loves his energy and his constant thirst for getting better. Credits him for establishing the winning culture in Winnipeg. Said training him to not do it all him self was one of his major coaching challenges. Says Peyton still thinks he can be a top 6 NHL forward but Patrick believes the league will tell him what he is. Compared his situation to Guy Carbonneau and the transition Carbonneau had to make from QMJHL stud to the quintessential 3rd-line centre.

On Savoie: 50/50 on whether he can be in the NHL this year. Respects his effort and his all-around game and says he could have been the best point producer in junior hockey this year. Says he needs to raise him game a level and learn how to get inside.

On Benson: Unequivocally, the best junior-age player he's ever coached. Consistently created more offensive chances than anyone else on a stacked team, didn't give anything away on defence, and made everyone he played with better. He said he couldn't believe he dropped as far as he did, and implied he wasn't at all in the Sabres plans prior to the draft, but they just couldn't allow his talent to slip by.

 

I saw that yesterday.  I have pointed out before how well he digs the puck out and hits his mates with perfect passes in front of the net. Putting him on a 4th line with Girgs and KO is a waste. He can garner a lot of assists with some better players around him. Hustles every shift. 

[LGR4GM]

36 minutes ago, steveoath said:

I don't understand how Pronman works. 

I think I can help. 

If you are a forward who is 5'11" or smaller, you must have McDavid level skating speed (note I said speed). If you are 6'-6'2" you have have NHL average skating speed. If you are 6'3" or taller you have to not fall over when you skate ("skates good for his size"). That's about how he ranks skating. He very often ignores all the other aspects of skating such as stride extension, ankle flexion, acceleration, and edge work. Jeff Skinner is not a blazing skater at the end of the day. He is speedy but he isn't Jack Eichel fast for example. So is his skating worse than? No, because his edgework and ability to elude using his skating is elite and that means he can play the game in different ways. 

Next if you are small (remember above) you have to have a trait that is truly elite such as shot... basically just shot. If you are in the middle tier of size you can be flawed as long as you possess something good (passing, compete, shot, Hockey IQ maybe). If you are in the top tier, just don't fall when you skate. Okay, I just with the last one. Basically small players have to be great, middle players have to be good, and tall players have to be above average. So Bedard is above great, he's elite. Benson is great (he is elite in IQ and Compete so I don't worry like Pronman) but because he is only great, above average tall guys are "better". Size is overshadowing other variables. 

Finally, he projects every single top tier (size) person to be physical. 6'4" and 200lbs as an 18yr old, oh you can drive inside and such. All small players he makes comments like "perimeter player" or "because of size X won't be able to get inside in the NHL" even though that isn't the case. 

So the basic premise of Pronman's work is, how big are they? Can the pull away on breakaways? Do they shoot good? When it comes to goalies it is all about "how tall are they?" And if you don't meet his prototypical size restraints, you have to have certain traits (the breakaway speed) or he drops you faster than a sack of potatoes. Basically Pronman has major size and skating biases that don't actually represent how the game of hockey gets played. 

The only other factor to toss in here, is perception. If a player is perceived as good Pronman will give them a bump up. It is why he ranks Luke Hughes over Owen Power even though Owen Power just played top 2 minutes in the NHL and was fine. 

I take Pronman's stuff with a grain of salt and it is why I have really moved towards EP Rinksides' lists and info. I think they are better about understanding skating, breaking down true weaknesses in players games, and also recognizing that not all tall guys are physical. 

Disclaimer: Being 6'3" allows Cozens to do things that 5'10" Benson won't be able to do, just like 6'6" Power can do stuff that a 5'10" Bryson cannot do. Size has advantages but there are increasing ways to deal with them. Do I wish Benson was 6'1", yes I do. But I won't write him off the way Pronman does simply because he isn't. 

[LGR4GM]

12 minutes ago, French Collection said:

Levi should find some motivation from people doubting his potential.

The Hockey News had a discussion yesterday about the next great goalie. The choices were Wallstedt, Wolf or Askarov.

I am still mad Wolf wasn't drafted by Buffalo. Levi, played for a college team that wasn't the powerhouses of college hockey and the only reason Wolf isn't with Levi right now (both are 6') is because Wolf DESTROYED the AHL. I think looking at that list I would go: Wolf, Levi, Askarov, Wallstedt. 

Here btw was Elite Prospects (EP) Rinkside list of the top 15 goalies:

https://eprinkside.com/2023/08/25/ranking-the-nhls-top-15-affiliated-goaltender-prospects-in-2023

1. Devon Levi
2. Dustin Wolf
3. Lukas Dostal (haven't watched any on him so can't give a good opinion)
4. Jesper Wallstedt
5. Yaroslov Askarov
6. Joseph Woll
7. Pyotr Kochetkov
8. Nico Daws
9. Trey Augustine
10. Dylan Garand
11. Arturs Silov
12. Ivan Prosvetov
13. Jaxson Stauber
14. Joel Hofer
15. Hugo Alnefelt

Eric Portillo was an honorable mention. 

12 minutes ago, Night Train said:

 

I saw that yesterday.  I have pointed out before how well he digs the puck out and hits his mates with perfect passes in front of the net. Putting him on a 4th line with Girgs and KO is a waste. He can garner a lot of assists with some better players around him. Hustles every shift. 

I think Greenway - Krebs - Rousek could be an exceedingly effective line. I think Greenway - Krebs - Benson would be nightmare fuel for other teams trying to match lines if Greenway can get back to 100% (his conditioning was not where we need it). 

[Flashsabre]

I have asked for a few years now: how did Pronman get his position? What qualifies him to be an expert on prospects? I have never been too big on his rankings or opinions on prospects.

Leinonen just can’t stay healthy. This year is big for him to see if he can breakout. With Levi and now Ratzleff in the fold he becomes less important even though he was drafted high and ahead of some quality young players.

[JustOneParade]

9 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

https://theathletic.com/4805966/2023/08/28/nhl-players-prospects-under-23-connor-bedard/

Players listed 1-168.

6.  Cozens - Bubble Elite

13. Power - NHL All-star

27. Quinn - Top of the lineup player

64. Benson - Bubble top of the lineup player - middle of the lineup

70. JJP - Bubble top of the lineup player - middle of the lineup

80. Kulich - Bubble top of the lineup player - middle of the lineup

91. Östlund - Middle of the lineup player

100. Savoie - Middle of the lineup player

126. Krebs - Middle of the lineup player

138. Wahlberg - Middle of the lineup player

139. Strbak - Middle of the lineup player

165. Levi - Middle of the lineup player

 

 

 

This is going to be interesting/fun to watch. Assuming the Sabres top line stays intact for a few more years, there are 9 forward prospects for (counting on my fingers) 6 'middle of the lineup' positions. (5 if we assume Casey is in the middle 6). Of the 9 he rates 6 of them between elite and bubble top of the line up players. The middle six may look more like 2 second lines very soon.

[Happy Days]

Things could get crowded up front in 24-25 season with four 1st round picks looking for spots in the forward ranks Benson, Savoie, Kulich, and Rosen.

[Taro T]

On 8/16/2023 at 5:43 PM, dudacek said:

I'm curious if anyone thinks we have any actual stars in the pipeline?

And by stars I mean players who are in the conversation when people are talking about NHL stars, not really good players and local heroes: Dahlin and Thompson last year emerged as stars. Eichel is a star. Miller was a star.  Skinner and Vanek and Reinhart and Pominville and Drury were very good first line players, but not stars. Hasek was a superstar.

I think Power could be a star and if anyone might join him it will be Levi.

I have very high hopes for Quinn reaching that Pominville level and Cozens is already close, but it's no guarantee.

Beyond that, many others could get there, but I suspect most of our best prospects will fall somewhere between Rasmus Asplund and JP Dumont.

In the pipeline?  Personally don't really consider Power nor Levi to be in the pipeline as they're pencilled into the top 4 and the starter role respectively.  And expect BOTH of them to become stars though it would be too much to ask to have either/both in the Dahlin class.

MAYBE Cozens becomes a star.  Personally expect him to be in the Peca level of stardom.  We'd consider him a star and some around the league would as well.  Not sure that was a universal opinion and there really was no harm nor shame in that.

Expect Benson also has the potential to be a star too.  But it's waaaaaaaay to early to say that and definitely too early to expect it.

But is fun to wonder just how many of these players could get there.

[Brawndo]

Östlund officially loaded to the SHL 

[nfreeman]

New prospect rankings from Expected Buffalo:  https://www.expectedbuffalo.com/expected-buffalo-2023-top-25-sabres-prospects-rankings-levi-benson/

 

[GASabresIUFAN]

25 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

New prospect rankings from Expected Buffalo:  https://www.expectedbuffalo.com/expected-buffalo-2023-top-25-sabres-prospects-rankings-levi-benson/

 

These are similar to my list earlier in the thread, but there is no planet where Rosen is a better prospect than Östlund.  You can argue that he is "closer" to playing in the NHL because he is already here and Östlund was loaned back to the SHL today, but Östlund is the more talented player with a much higher upside.  Rosen does have a better shot.  

I do like how high they have Neuchev and Wahlberg.  Pronman also like Wahlberg, but he is sleeping on Neuchev.  KA was very clear how much they like Neuchev and I think he'll be the big upside surprise this season in Rochester.

[GASabresIUFAN]

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/ranking-nhl-best-and-worst-prospect-pools-sabres-red-wings-canadiens-blackhawks-devils-120025136.html

This was published in July, but I don't think anyone linked it here.  Ian Kennedy, the author, IMHO does a very good job evaluating prospects and draft-eligible players.  He writes for the Hockey News and Yahoo News as well as the Globe & Mail in Canada.1

Quote

 

1. Buffalo Sabres

Top three prospects: Jiri Kulich, Devon Levi, Matthew Savoie

Top pick in 2023: Zach Benson

For a team featuring Dylan Cozens, Peyton Krebs, Owen Power, Jack Quinn, Rasmus Dahlin, JJ Peterka and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen already at the NHL level, to say they still have a top-five prospect pool should terrify opponents.

Grabbing Zach Benson outside the top ten in this year’s NHL draft was a steal, adding him to their depth of first-round picks including Jiri Kulich, Matthew Savoie, Isak Rosen and Noah Östlund up front, along with Anton Wahlberg. In net, Devon Levi is considered one of the best netminding prospects on the planet. This is a deep and highly-skilled prospect pool.

 

 

[GASabresIUFAN]

https://thehockeynews.com/news/top-50-drafted-nhl-prospects-based-on-doerries-model

Quote

This model, named W5M, ranks each NHL-affiliated prospect based on their expected career output. It should be noted that goalies are not included in this ranking, though they are included in the model. Some players will be bright flashes in the pan, while some will have 15-year careers as a sixth defenseman. Regardless, this model favors star potential, meaning some players with higher ceilings and lower floors will rank higher than those with high floors and low ceilings. While the high-ceiling players may not be as sure of a thing, their potential is weighed against the likelihood of achieving it to appropriately rank them. The model accounts for production, the production curve, league played in draft year, league played in currently, strength of team, volatility, games played (injury), height and weight.

7. Zach Benson, Buffalo, Top Line

31. Jiri Kulich, Buffalo, Top-Six Forward

43. Matt Savoie, Buffalo, Impact Forward

47. Noah Östlund, Buffalo, Impact Forward

My biggest criticism of this model's results is Marco Rossi is 17th.  I also don't see what Marco Kasper has done to be 29th to Kulich's 31.

Edited September 1, 2023 by GASabresIUFAN

[Brawndo]

 

[Brawndo]