What Do the Sabres Look Like in 2 years?

[Archie Lee]

49 minutes ago, SabresVet said:

There's no need to wait and see with the roster and how it'll fare against a tough division.  We know the goaltending is suspect and the forwards group is not much better given previous performance.  The defense I'm not extremely concerned about, though this won't carry them if they aren't scoring.  

It seems all people have to hang their hat on is that Granato's scheme will deliver huge dividends.  It reminds me of when people celebrated Chan Gailey's offenses who featured nobody and managed to (for a time) score some points.  Without top talent over a long season it's inevitably they'll struggle.

As someone noted above, you had a last place team in the league and then removed Eichel, Reinhart, Ullmark, McCabe, and Ristolainen.  Who replaces those guys and how are they an improvement?   

I'm not sure about the bolded.  In the group of 5 players you list, only Reinhart was good (for the most part) from start to finish last year.  Eichel, Ullmark and McCabe spent much of the year playing injured or out with injury.  I'm personally with you on Risto, but 50% of the fanbase has told us for years that getting rid of him will be addition by subtraction.

All things considered, replacing these guys in relation to what they did for us last year might not be that difficult. 

 

[bunomatic]

This team has made an art of setting the bar low. My expectation based on the moves KA made and the statements he’s made about where we’re going as an org. Is last place. No bout adoubt it. There has been little to no improvement on a roster that finished dead last. 

[Thorny]

Basically impossible to predict what the team will look like that far from now, plenty of the names being penciled in won't be here/won't make it. If I was Kevyn Adams and trying to determine who of the current cast might make up the roster I'm trying to build for 2 years from now, including the spaces I thought would still likely need filling (gotta play it safe), it might look something like this:

1LW - 1C - 1RW

Peterka/Poltapov/Kisakov - Cozens - Quinn/Rosen

Peterka/Poltapov/Kisakov - Mittelstadt - Quinn/Rosen

Skinner/Olofsson/Ruotsalainen/ - Asplund - Thompson/Olofsson/Ruotsalainen

 

• While there's a chance top line roles may be filled by players already in the system, I wouldn't think it smart to be assuming any player in the system is a better than 50/50 shot to amount to a true first line player, especially at C. Acquiring that 1C potential C is still the biggest in-need future piece
• Reasonably confident in Cozens and Casey being able to nail down the middle 6 C roles
• Maybe a bit optimistic, but we may be able to get two middle 6 LWs out of the Peterka/Poltapov/Kisakov grouping
• Definitely optimistic counting on both Quinn and Rosen to fill those same spots on the right, but Quinn has a high enough likelihood of being a 2nd line level wing that I'm ok with that for now
• Asplund being a mainstay NHL 4 liner seems an decent bet - if not, it's not the most difficult position to fill on the fly
• Should be able to get 2 solid depth wingers and a spare out of Skinner/Thompson/Olofsson/Ruotsalainen. If you think all 4 are NHL players deserving of above 4th line duty, that's fine - I have only 5 wing prospects for 4 spots in the mid six, which is pretty ambitious overall considering usual turnover - we'll need the depth. 
• I've got 9 spots filled from the players we have in the system already, I'd say it's unlikely to be that many for two years out from now. But it's a baseline.

- - - 

Dahlin - 1RD

Power - Jokiharju

Samuelsson/Johnson - Laaksonen/3RD?

• Gotta be able to count on 1 and 2 LD being filled by our 2 first overall picks or there's no reason to live
• Jokiharju fine in a mid pair RD role
• Good depth at LHD, I'm not really counting on Laaksonen (on the right) to make the NHL but it's a third pairing role so it shouldn't be an issue finding a guy, a lefty can play off hand there, even, on a bottom pair
• We do need to be thinking about bringing in a top-4 level RHD. Otherwise we are not only counting on a player amounting to that where it's no sure thing (Johnson), we'd be trusting him to be able to play his off-hand, to boot. I've heard he's proficient on the right side, but all bets are off once you make the Show.

- - - 

1G

UPL/Portillo/Levi

• Expecting one of our three prospect netminders to nail down a backup role at the NHL level seems reasonable. Of course you hope for a starter, but as always with goalies, we should be looking to add a 1G until we actually have an established 1G between the pipes

- - - 

We need more high-end forwards. Definitely a blue-chip prospect C. 

We need a high end RHD (maybe Drysdale as a return makes pretty good sense for us)

We need a damn goalie

...at least. As for whether all of this amounts to achieving a merely competent team down the line (not a guarantee), or whether it's good enough to amount to being a playoff team, remains to be seen.

Just my 10 cents. My 2 cents is free

 

[JohnC]

1 minute ago, bunomatic said:

This team has made an art of setting the bar low. My expectation based on the moves KA made and the statements he’s made about where we’re going as an org. Is last place. No bout adoubt it. There has been little to no improvement on a roster that finished dead last. 

If Arttu, Mitts, Cozens, Dahlin, Joki, Thompson, Bjork, Asplund, Samuelsson and maybe Bryson all play better that would be a good sign.

Next year Power, Quinn and Peterka and maybe UPL should be added to the mix. Ryan Johnson might be another year away? Will a Jack deal add another prime player or two to the prospect pool not far from NHL ready?  I'm not sure a deal will be made until his health situation is clarified. 

Those who are arguing that this year is going to be a tough year are probably correct. Our subtractions of Reinhart, Ullmark and probably Jack will leave gaping holes on a roster that was already thin to begin with. From a won/loss standpoint it is going to be a tough year. Can this team at least be entertaining and provide future hope? I think so. My big worry is that unless there is an upgrade in our goaltending situation it will undercut whatever progress that can be had. 

Watching a franchise go through a rebuilding process is tough to digest. Either the organization is fully committed to it or you end up taking short cuts that extend the rebuild time. There is no other way. 

[dudacek]

It's interesting to watch the general expectations on this forum for Rosen, Quinn and Power.

Generally speaking fans overestimate how good their picks are going to be: the old mystery box  "no way are we giving up Kakko for Eichel" hyperbole. But I don't think @Thorny is alone around here in his skepticism that any will develop into front-line players.

I wonder the last time an NHL 13th, 8th and 1st overall pick had expectations this low from their fan base less than a year after they had been picked?

[Thorny]

18 minutes ago, dudacek said:

It's interesting to watch the general expectations on this forum for Rosen, Quinn and Power.

Generally speaking fans overestimate how good their picks are going to be: the old mystery box  "no way are we giving up Kakko for Eichel" hyperbole. But I don't think @Thorny is alone around here in his skepticism that any will develop into front-line players.

I wonder the last time an NHL 13th, 8th and 1st overall pick had expectations this low from their fan base less than a year after they had been picked?

I think Power has a reasonable shot of developing into a 1st pairing quality d-man. Dahlin's presence is a functional reason I have Power at pair 2, it being a weak draft in perception adds to that. It should be noted though that I wasn't penciling players in based on what I thought represented their potential - merely making what I consider to be safe bets, where possible. I would think when planning out a roster for down the line, it would do well to build in this way. You can't plan for the best case scenario - it won't work imo. 

The math would say Rosen just as likely doesn't make the NHL at all, never mind becomes a mid-6 wing, right? I wouldn't think counting on a combination of Quinn and Rosen to fill 2 mid-6 wing spots is pessimistic at all, closer to optimistic, actually, imo. Quinn could be a 1RW. Gun to head is that the bet one makes? Not for me. 

We have a 1st overall pick LHD right now that some would say is still better suited to second pair, at this stage. We have a 12th overall pick forward who isn't even making projections (Girgensons). We dealt an 8th overall for mid-pair Joki, and have another 8th overall pick (Casey) best suited to a mid 6 C role. Quinn and Rosen being in and around that seems reasonable to me. 

I don't think I'd classify my expectations as low, based on experience I'd consider them to be prudent. YMMV. 

Edited August 26, 2021 by Thorny

[dudacek]

10 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I don't think I'd classify my expectations as low, based on experience I'd consider them to be prudent. YMMV. 

But compared to what expectations generally are for high picks among NHL fan bases?

Recent case in point:

In a recent Athletic survey, Red Wings fans gave their team a 4.2 out of 5 for drafting and developing. Sabres fans gave their team a 2.2 out of 5.

Keep in mind the Sabres have won 10 more games than the Wings have over the past 3 years

Comparing who they've drafted:

• Dahlin (1) Raymond (4)
• Power (1) Seider (6)
• Cozens (7) Edvinsson (6)
• Quinn (8) Zadina (6)
• Mittelstadt (8) Rasmussen (9)
• Rosen (14) Cossa (15)
• Johnson (31) Veleno (30)
• Samuelsson (32) Wallinder (32)
• Poltapov (33) Berggren (33)
• Peterka (34) Tuomisto (35)
• Davidsson (37) McIsaac (36)

Do the Red Wings fan base have the evidence to support being twice as confident as the Sabres fan base?

[Thorny]

1 minute ago, dudacek said:

But compared to what expectations generally are for high picks among NHL fan bases?

Recent case in point:

In a recent Athletic survey, Red Wings fans gave their team a 4.2 out of 5 for drafting and developing. Sabres fans gave their team a 2.2 out of 5.

Keep in mind the Sabres have won 10 more games than the Wings have over the past 3 years

Comparing who they've drafted:

• Dahlin (1) Raymond (4)
• Power (1) Seider (6)
• Cozens (7) Edvinsson (6)
• Quinn (8) Zadina (6)
• Mittelstadt (8) Rasmussen (9)
• Rosen (14) Cossa (15)
• Johnson (31) Veleno (30)
• Samuelsson (32) Wallinder (32)
• Poltapov (33) Berggren (33)
• Peterka (34) Tuomisto (35)
• Davidsson (37) McIsaac (36)

Do the Red Wings fan base have the evidence to support being twice as confident as the Sabres fan base?

All this tells me is that Sabres fans are smarter

[dudacek]

2 minutes ago, Thorny said:

All this tells me is that Sabres fans are smarter

And more bruised.

(You know I'm not arguing against you, right? Just making an observation about perception.)

Edited August 26, 2021 by dudacek

[Thorny]

3 minutes ago, dudacek said:

And more bruised.

(You know I'm not arguing against you, right? Just making an observation about perception.)

Edited August 26, 2021 by Thorny

[Wyldnwoody44]

[Sabres Fan in NS]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

It's interesting to watch the general expectations on this forum for Rosen, Quinn and Power.

Generally speaking fans overestimate how good their picks are going to be: the old mystery box  "no way are we giving up Kakko for Eichel" hyperbole. But I don't think @Thorny is alone around here in his skepticism that any will develop into front-line players.

I wonder the last time an NHL 13th, 8th and 1st overall pick had expectations this low from their fan base less than a year after they had been picked?

The Sabres have had such little luck in the draft that the fan base is conditioned to expect nothing, or almost nothing from most draft picks.  On top of that the very good draft picks (Samson and Eich) are cast into the pit and come out stone cold and bitter.  So much so that they end up jadded by 25 and traded away for a do over.

[pi2000]

16 hours ago, Andrew Amerk said:

I get that, but there’s a difference between intentionally being bad, and just being bad. This is not a tank. 

semantics

they're $8m under the cap floor..... BY CHOICE

tank-a-palooza

[Weave]

3 hours ago, Thorny said:

Basically impossible to predict what the team will look like that far from now, plenty of the names being penciled in won't be here/won't make it. If I was Kevyn Adams and trying to determine who of the current cast might make up the roster I'm trying to build for 2 years from now, including the spaces I thought would still likely need filling (gotta play it safe), it might look something like this:

1LW - 1C - 1RW

Peterka/Poltapov/Kisakov - Cozens - Quinn/Rosen

Peterka/Poltapov/Kisakov - Mittelstadt - Quinn/Rosen

Skinner/Olofsson/Ruotsalainen/ - Asplund - Thompson/Olofsson/Ruotsalainen

 

• While there's a chance top line roles may be filled by players already in the system, I wouldn't think it smart to be assuming any player in the system is a better than 50/50 shot to amount to a true first line player, especially at C. Acquiring that 1C potential C is still the biggest in-need future piece
• Reasonably confident in Cozens and Casey being able to nail down the middle 6 C roles
• Maybe a bit optimistic, but we may be able to get two middle 6 LWs out of the Peterka/Poltapov/Kisakov grouping
• Definitely optimistic counting on both Quinn and Rosen to fill those same spots on the right, but Quinn has a high enough likelihood of being a 2nd line level wing that I'm ok with that for now
• Asplund being a mainstay NHL 4 liner seems an decent bet - if not, it's not the most difficult position to fill on the fly
• Should be able to get 2 solid depth wingers and a spare out of Skinner/Thompson/Olofsson/Ruotsalainen. If you think all 4 are NHL players deserving of above 4th line duty, that's fine - I have only 5 wing prospects for 4 spots in the mid six, which is pretty ambitious overall considering usual turnover - we'll need the depth. 
• I've got 9 spots filled from the players we have in the system already, I'd say it's unlikely to be that many for two years out from now. But it's a baseline.

- - - 

Dahlin - 1RD

Power - Jokiharju

Samuelsson/Johnson - Laaksonen/3RD?

• Gotta be able to count on 1 and 2 LD being filled by our 2 first overall picks or there's no reason to live
• Jokiharju fine in a mid pair RD role
• Good depth at LHD, I'm not really counting on Laaksonen (on the right) to make the NHL but it's a third pairing role so it shouldn't be an issue finding a guy, a lefty can play off hand there, even, on a bottom pair
• We do need to be thinking about bringing in a top-4 level RHD. Otherwise we are not only counting on a player amounting to that where it's no sure thing (Johnson), we'd be trusting him to be able to play his off-hand, to boot. I've heard he's proficient on the right side, but all bets are off once you make the Show.

- - - 

1G

UPL/Portillo/Levi

• Expecting one of our three prospect netminders to nail down a backup role at the NHL level seems reasonable. Of course you hope for a starter, but as always with goalies, we should be looking to add a 1G until we actually have an established 1G between the pipes

- - - 

We need more high-end forwards. Definitely a blue-chip prospect C. 

We need a high end RHD (maybe Drysdale as a return makes pretty good sense for us)

We need a damn goalie

...at least. As for whether all of this amounts to achieving a merely competent team down the line (not a guarantee), or whether it's good enough to amount to being a playoff team, remains to be seen.

Just my 10 cents. My 2 cents is free

 

I think this is a fairly reasonable expectation for what is currently in the pipeline.  Statistics suggest we would not get 9 NHLers out of this group, and you acknowledge that.  And the likelihood of high end players isn’t great.  And you acknowledge that as well.

That still leaves us with a pretty mediocre outlook 2-3yrs out.

[LabattBlue]

5 hours ago, SabresVet said:

By no means is this a deliberate attempt to run the team into the ground to obtain a top draft pick.  

It's a classic rebuild, not a Tim Murray special circa 2014-15. 

What the heck does “classic rebuild” mean?  Bottom line, in a league where half the teams make the playoffs, if a GM can’t have a team in the playoffs(or very close) after two offseasons of roster building, he needs to be shown the door. 

[Digger]

15 minutes ago, LabattBlue said:

What the heck does “classic rebuild” mean?  Bottom line, in a league where half the teams make the playoffs, if a GM can’t have a team in the playoffs(or very close) after two offseasons of roster building, he needs to be shown the door. 

The Sabres have installed a revolving door for GM's and Coaches.  😃

Joking aside I agree that we need to be able to turn around this team fairly quick to become a respectable team again.  I would love it if someone would take the time to go through other team's rebuilds (classic or otherwise) and show the steps taken to go from last place finish to winning again in the playoffs and contending for the Stanley Cup.  There's some luck involved with drafting top players like Crosby but there's also quite a number of strategic moves that were made I'm sure.

[thewookie1]

1 hour ago, pi2000 said:

semantics

they're $8m under the cap floor..... BY CHOICE

tank-a-palooza

You do know that you don't have to spend 81.5 mil to be good right? Throwing money at things doesn't equate to a better team.

[GASabresIUFAN]

3 hours ago, dudacek said:

But compared to what expectations generally are for high picks among NHL fan bases?

Recent case in point:

In a recent Athletic survey, Red Wings fans gave their team a 4.2 out of 5 for drafting and developing. Sabres fans gave their team a 2.2 out of 5.

Keep in mind the Sabres have won 10 more games than the Wings have over the past 3 years

Comparing who they've drafted:

• Dahlin (1) Raymond (4)
• Power (1) Seider (6)
• Cozens (7) Edvinsson (6)
• Quinn (8) Zadina (6)
• Mittelstadt (8) Rasmussen (9)
• Rosen (14) Cossa (15)
• Johnson (31) Veleno (30)
• Samuelsson (32) Wallinder (32)
• Poltapov (33) Berggren (33)
• Peterka (34) Tuomisto (35)
• Davidsson (37) McIsaac (36)

Do the Red Wings fan base have the evidence to support being twice as confident as the Sabres fan base?

I'm not sure if Red Wings fans are more optimistic or if our fans smarter or more bruised.  What I do know is we have a right to be somewhat skeptical of the decision making of the last 3 GMs and our drafting reflects this.  For example Jbot drafted Johnson when he could have taken skilled O players that had higher consensus ratings and who are already in the NHL or KA's draft of Quinn when young centers like Rossi and Perfetti were still on the board.  He also reached on Rosen (ranked in the 20's on most boards) and took two Russians in the second who may never come to the NHL.   Add to the fact Tm drafted Nylander over Sergachev, how few 2nd rd picks for this organization have made a positive impact here since 2013 and that RK nearly destroyed Mittelstadt and we the fans have earned our skepticism

Edited August 26, 2021 by GASabresIUFAN

[Crusader1969]

this is impossible to answer before Jack gets traded.

[Thorny]

2 hours ago, Weave said:

I think this is a fairly reasonable expectation for what is currently in the pipeline.  Statistics suggest we would not get 9 NHLers out of this group, and you acknowledge that.  And the likelihood of high end players isn’t great.  And you acknowledge that as well.

That still leaves us with a pretty mediocre outlook 2-3yrs out.

I think this is probably why we have seen Adams apparently holding firm on his ask for Eichel as long as he has, and why the roster looks as willingly bad as it does, heading into next season

I think it also indicates how early we are in Adams' plan

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, thewookie1 said:

You do know that you don't have to spend 81.5 mil to be good right? Throwing money at things doesn't equate to a better team.

And you do know that cap space is a resource that can be used to make a team better right?

Using it may not make you better. Not using it definitely will not.

[SabresVet]

2 hours ago, LabattBlue said:

What the heck does “classic rebuild” mean?  Bottom line, in a league where half the teams make the playoffs, if a GM can’t have a team in the playoffs(or very close) after two offseasons of roster building, he needs to be shown the door. 

Adams' rebuild is about setting the house on fire before the season begins.  Murray kept re-lighting the house on fire when it looked like the thing might go out in-season.  The first isn't for a high pick and the latter is all about it 

Agree that by the end of season 2 they need to be in the playoffs.  I'm also intrigued to see how long Adams sticks with players he didn't draft or re/sign.  And there's still a significant number here who aren't "his" guys. 

[thewookie1]

38 minutes ago, dudacek said:

And you do know that cap space is a resource that can be used to make a team better right?

Using it may not make you better. Not using it definitely will not.

Of course; personally I would be using this cap space to create a top line of older savvy vets on shorter end deals/cap casualties in order to give some insulation for all our youngins.

Get me Henrique in an Eichel trade with Zegras 🙂 and see if you can get the Flyers to give you JVR as a cap casualty. (Based on Giroux’s UFA status next year and Couturier’s extension, JVR is likely a goner next year at the latest.)

Id want JVR for two reasons, he plays a similar style to Reinhart in regards to net front play, savvy still effective player who is well respected, and we may even get bribed to take him off their hands.

Henrique is certainly is no longer a 1 or even 2C more than likely but is seen as a great guy, Captained the Canadian WC team and would potentially garner us a better return with Eichel.

 

Likewise I would pester the Dallas Stars about Khodobin seeing as even if Bishop is LTIRed, they’d still have too many goalies.

 

[OrangeSeatVertigo]

On 8/24/2021 at 5:33 PM, Pimlach said:

Are we tanking for Wright?   Hope not.  Nothing against Wright but I have huge issues with losing. 
 

won't need to worry about tanking.. its pretty much built into the roster for this year