2021 Buffalo Bills

[Norcal]

This was a nice run early from Motor, helped set the tone

 

[LGR4GM]

46 minutes ago, JujuFish said:

Why do Bills fans have such an inferiority complex? If anything, this will only motivate Allen. I mean, he just had his best game of the season.

No one cares about the pro bowl. It's a useless event, hence the joke. 

[Norcal]

 

 

[Dreams Burn Down]

3 hours ago, inkman said:

I don’t advocate doing drugs, ok maybe I do, so this is like heroin, coke and X infused into one delicious mind altering concoction:

 

Was that Ted the talking bear on that radio call in?

[Dreams Burn Down]

2 hours ago, Norcal said:

This was a nice run early from Motor, helped set the tone

 

I hope that one of their goals over the next two games, other than winning, is continuing to develop this sudden running attack we have seemingly stumbled upon.

[JujuFish]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

No one cares about the pro bowl. It's a useless event, hence the joke. 

Yeah, that's not a joke to a lot of fans. Hence the complex comment.

[Dr. Who]

1 hour ago, Dreams Burn Down said:

I hope that one of their goals over the next two games, other than winning, is continuing to develop this sudden running attack we have seemingly stumbled upon.

Quick throws over the middle to Singletary ought to be a basic ingredient. Showed the Cheaters Josh was going to take the easy yards and adds a dimension for the opposing defense to worry about.

[Doohickie]

7 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

It does if you saw McKenzie drop a ton of balls in college like I did.  Granted its been a few years, but I’d be thrilled if he has developed into a competent Beasley replacement. It would be great for his career, help the Bills cap wise and give the Bills a burner at the slot who would be potentially even more dangerous then Beasley after the catch.

11 catches in 12 targets on Sunday, not all of them perfect throws... he can catch the ball.

[Doohickie]

5 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

In the first quarter Buffalo went for it and got a td instead of kicking a fg. Those extra 4 points were vital in the fourth quarter when it was a 5 point game. 

And I absolutely wanted them to take the sure points on the FG.

On the other hand, if they *had* kicked the FG, they might not have gone for it on 4th and goal after the interception (and come up short) so it may have played out essentially the same.

On the other, other hand, the Pats starting out in the shadow of their own goal posts (versus the 25 after a kickoff following a successful FG), might have put pressure on the inexperienced Mac Jones.

I guess my point is that scoring the TD was big, but a FG might have been fine in that same situation.

4 hours ago, SwampD said:

I hate going for 2 in every situation except if you need it to win or tie at the end of the game.

Just sayin.

There are times when it makes sense to go for 2.  That said, the 2-pt conversion they tried Sunday wasn't one of them.

[Randall Flagg]

18 minutes ago, The Ghost of Yuri said:

And I absolutely wanted them to take the sure points on the FG.

On the other hand, if they *had* kicked the FG, they might not have gone for it on 4th and goal after the interception (and come up short) so it may have played out essentially the same.

On the other, other hand, the Pats starting out in the shadow of their own goal posts (versus the 25 after a kickoff following a successful FG), might have put pressure on the inexperienced Mac Jones.

I guess my point is that scoring the TD was big, but a FG might have been fine in that same situation.

There are times when it makes sense to go for 2.  That said, the 2-pt conversion they tried Sunday wasn't one of them.

I thought it makes sense. There was only time for ~2 more NE drives, maybe 3. 

If you kick the extra point, they only need 2 touchdown drives to beat you. 

If you miss the two point conversion, the same 2 touchdown drives can beat you, and you still need the same thing to beat them if they succeed in this, another field goal at least. You will play your offense the same way in this situation as you would if you kicked the extra point, and so would the pats.

But if you make the two point conversion, two touchdown drives from NE only ties the game. Unless they do what Bill rarely does, going for 2 when the tie is on the table with an extra point late in a ballgame. 

Game situation wise, the downside of going for two is the same as the upside of kicking the extra point, but the upside of going for two is better than the upside of kicking. 

I can hear arguments against going for two earlier in games when both teams have a lot of drives left to go, but when you know there is only time on the clock for a few more drives, two point conversions can be the correct choice even if you aren't directly tying the game with them 

[GASabresIUFAN]

Quick stat:  First time in Belacheat’s HC career (474 games including playoffs) that his defense didn’t force a single punt by the opponent.

Edited December 27, 2021 by GASabresIUFAN

[Dreams Burn Down]

1 minute ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Quick stat:  First time in Belacheat’s HC career (474 games including playoffs) that his defense didn’t force a single punt by the opponent.

CBS showed him on the sideline late in the game, it may have been after we went up 33-21, and he had the most pathetic frown on his face. I laughed so hard, I could barely breathe.

[inkman]

3 hours ago, JujuFish said:

Yeah, that's not a joke to a lot of fans. Hence the complex comment.

Well I guess those fans are stupid 

48 minutes ago, Dreams Burn Down said:

CBS showed him on the sideline late in the game, it may have been after we went up 33-21, and he had the most pathetic frown on his face. I laughed so hard, I could barely breathe.

You mean this one?

 

[Dreams Burn Down]

3 minutes ago, inkman said:

Well I guess those fans are stupid 

You mean this one?

 

That's the one! So satisfying on too many levels.

[SwampD]

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, SwampD said:

They look like Helen Thomas

 

Edited December 28, 2021 by GASabresIUFAN

[Norcal]

 

[SDS]

4 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

If you miss the two point conversion, the same 2 touchdown drives can beat you, and you still need the same thing to beat them if they succeed in this, another field goal at least.

This part isn’t correct. With the failed two point conversion, a field goal would have only tied the game. 

given the way the game had gone, I think it would’ve been much better to have the extra point and then have a possible one or two drives to get an additional field goal, considering they hadn’t even forced a punt all game.

As it played out, we really needed that touchdown at the end to put it away.

[PASabreFan]

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

They look like Helen Thomas

 

My SS day is done. Good night, John Boy.

[Randall Flagg]

2 hours ago, SDS said:

This part isn’t correct. With the failed two point conversion, a field goal would have only tied the game. 

given the way the game had gone, I think it would’ve been much better to have the extra point and then have a possible one or two drives to get an additional field goal, considering they hadn’t even forced a punt all game.

As it played out, we really needed that touchdown at the end to put it away.

You're assuming that NE goes for, and makes, their two point conversion here, right? If so, you're right. I was just picturing Belichick kicking twice, but I guess it's true that he would go for two on the second TD. 

Let's grant NE two scoring drives, and assume the Bills don't score again. The time remaining suggests that the Bills might have a chance at another drive, but it's also possible that they don't, which is something to consider in potentially going for 2. If you make it, and don't have time for that last drive because NE is running the ball well in their quest to score twice, then you can get to OT. if you kick, you won't. But there was time on the clock, and let's say NE scores twice and you have a minute or so left with the ball. 

Assume a 50% chance of completing a two point conversion successfully, for both teams.

Case 1: You go for 2 at 26-14. There is a 50% chance it's 28-14, and your last drive can be for a 3 point win. There is a 50% chance you miss, and NE scores to make it 27-26. They will choose to go for 2 here. There is a 50% chance they make it, and your last drive is only for a tie. There is a 50% chance they miss it, and your last drive is for a win. So there is a 75% chance your last drive is for a win, and a 25% chance it is for a tie to force OT. 

Case 2: You kick it at 26-14, to make it 27-14. NE scores twice. It is 28-27 and your last drive is 100% for a chance to win.

If you assume you get the ball again at the end of the game, kicking is the correct call. 

There was 11:42 left on the clock. If we are being consistent and setting up the scenario in which this two point decision matters, we have to assume that the Bills don't score again but NE goes on two touchdown drives. NE's previous touchdown drives were ~7, ~7, and ~4 minutes long. It is simply not a given that Buffalo has a chance to get the ball back. These odds need to be factored into the decision making, and I don't know how to do that.  Buffalo won't have time for a last drive if, for example, NE goes on a 5 minute scoring drive, Buffalo punts after 1:30, and NE goes on another 5 minute scoring drive. While you trust your team, you are planning for a scenario in which NE scores twice and the bills don't. If the Bills don't have enough time, that extra point doesn't help them at all, they lose, while making the two point conversion does help them. 

ie, if you will have enough time for a third 4th quarter possession despite you and NE combining for 3 long scoring drives in the quarter, it's smarter to kick. If you don't think you will have enough time, it's smarter to go for 2. 

I think. Lol

Edited December 28, 2021 by Randall Flagg

[Norcal]

 

[calti]

1 hour ago, Norcal said:

 

Isaiah..gotta love the guy!! That performance Sunday was super A+

ps--hope everyone in that house and in the entire zip code had all the rapid and PcR tests before he crossed the threshhold.Just to be sure. Im sure they did.

[Dreams Burn Down]

2 minutes ago, calti said:

Isaiah..gotta love the guy!! That performance Sunday was super A+

ps--hope everyone in that house and in the entire zip code had all the rapid and PcR tests before he crossed the threshhold.Just to be sure. Im sure they did.

He comes across as a quietly humble guy.  I hope that he continues to build on last week.

[Norcal]

12 minutes ago, calti said:

Isaiah..gotta love the guy!! That performance Sunday was super A+

ps--hope everyone in that house and in the entire zip code had all the rapid and PcR tests before he crossed the threshhold.Just to be sure. Im sure they did.

He said, say no more and just rolled up 15 mins later....nice

[LGR4GM]