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sweetlou

Sabres a long ways away from contending...

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So after watching a lot of bubble hockey I wanted to compare what the Sabres had this past season to the Eastern Conference Champion Tampa Bay Lightning.

I listed players by points so far in post season.

 

Stamkos (when healthy)-  Eichel is the best comparable...can score, has speed and can dominate a game

Kucherov- no one on Sabres is comparable

Point- no one on Sabres is comparable

Hedman- no one on Sabres is comparable

Palat-  maybe Skinner but I actually drop him down to next player because of how physical Palat is

Gourde- Skinner fit this mold best because of his feistiness and ability to get under other teams skin. Gourde gets nod in face offs but Skinner a better scorer

Coleman- Stall fills this role of veteran center man who plays a hard physical game

Shattenkirk-  Risto probably slightly better on offense, but Shattenkirk gets the nod in d zone

Cirelli- no one currently on Sabres, hopefully Cozens fills this role in a couple of years

Killorn- no one on Sabres

Johnson- this is level where most Sabres forwards fall...Reinhart, Kahun, and Olofsson are all pretty much 50 point guys but don't play a hard game

Sergachev-  Dahlin may be slightly better on offensive side but lacks the physicality that Sergachev plays with in own end

Goodrow- Girgensons  and Lazar type of player, good on PK and likes physical game

McDonagh- McCabe is probably best comparable

Bogo-  didn't we have a Bogo type player earlier in the year?? 

Cernack- no one on Sabres 

Maroon- Okposo fits build and scoring touch but can't play the physical game that Maroon plays

Verhaeghe- Thompson and Mitts,  good in minors but can't seem to figure it out yet in NHL

Paquette- Larsson is good comparable of defensive responsible, checking line center who can score some goals for you

Schenn and Rutta-  Borgen is in the monirs but best fits this mold

 

So in summary-  M Johansson, Vesey, and Sheary just don't compare to Kucherov, Point, Killorn on forward lines and Montour and Joker are a long ways away from Hedman

 

This team needs HELP!!!!

 

 

 

 

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Definitely need some of the younger players to live up to expectations. 

Right off the bat to make this more favourable to my team I'd point out the Lightning have no issue seemingly being the best team in the world *without* Stamkos, so scratching him from the equation, (the level they are at sans Stammer is still pretty close to ideal) I'd match Eichel up with any forward they have. Eichel would be the best 1C of the players on either side (including a healthy Stamkos).

At least then with Eichel comparing favourably/reasonably with Point, we are short only one offensive superstar (the Kucherov spot). The Bolts of course have an embarrassment of riches if Stamkos is playing, too. 

Edited by Thorny

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I realize that we want to be the best, but Tampa will probably win the Stanley Cup and is arguably the BEST team in the NHL.  If the Sabres can at least compare to a GOOD team (playoff team, semi-contender), I would be happy with that (in the short run).

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And as Tampa’s struggles to get to this point prove, being the best doesn’t guarantee you are winning the Cup or even that you are making the finals. Every year someone posts one of these threads but as others have proven, it really doesn’t take that long to change your fortunes if you get a little lucky and prove to be a little shrewd.

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Boy - it's no wonder Tampa has won the Cup every year. Granted there have been changes to the lineup, but the horses you described - Stamkos, Point, Kucherov, Sergachev, Hedman - have been there since 2017.

Good thing the '80 USA men's team didn't look at the Russian roster with your mindset.

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I don’t think Sabres are a “long way off” from playoff contention. And once you get in, anything can happen and usually an upset or two happen every year. 
 

My definition of “long way off” is more than 3 years away.

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Well no non playoff team is comparable to the Stanley Cup winner (or loser for that matter). We weren't comparable to the Blues or Bruins last year either. We're not going to go from bottom(ish) to the top in one off season ever. The question is do we have the foundation or the ingredients to slowly and consistently take a step forward each year until we get there. To that question, the answer is likely, not at this point. 

Now on a more optimistic side, when Dahlin was drafted a lot of people said he'll be better than Hedman, the dominant D man in the cup, and so that is still a possibility to be hopeful for.  We have 2 promising young goalies in the prospect pool. Either or both of whom could become game changing NHLers in a few years so if we can get good enough to sneak into the playoffs without them, maybe they take us up another notch or two after that. 

Reading that Buffalo News article it paints a poor picture of the overall prospect pool though and there's some definite disappointments, concussions and other possible busts so Cozens HAS to hit big and become #2 center sooner than later. He has to lead our version of the Point line, whatever that becomes. If he doesn't become exceptional, again, we are probably really far off. Pekar has to be a nasty pest and Samuelsson has to become a rock. One or two of the others have to surprise. If not, yup, we will still suck.

If we don't start getting lucky or drafting really well soon (now) not a lot will change. 

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My point in post is that Sabres are a few years away from competing for Cup so fans need to have realistic expectations.  Even if they can happen to sneak into the playoffs in the next couple of years look for early round exists.  They need to keep Jack happy so this means definitely getting more competitive. 

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5 minutes ago, sweetlou said:

My point in post is that Sabres are a few years away from competing for Cup so fans need to have realistic expectations.  Even if they can happen to sneak into the playoffs in the next couple of years look for early round exists.  They need to keep Jack happy so this means definitely getting more competitive. 

Besides Tampa and Dallas ... Realistically, factually ... Vegas, Chicago, Colorado, Arizona, Calgary, Vancouver, St. Louis, Philly, Montreal, Columbus, Washington, NY, Boston, and Carolina competed for the cup this year. But with your mindset, if you only mean Sabres need to be as good as Dallas and Tampa, then yea, well, so do 28 other teams! Sabres aren’t unique in the fact they need to get better to compete (win) for the cup. It will be a stark difference in results next season IF the Sabres ONLY upgrade in net before Dec. and get a better 2C than Eric freakin Staal. 🤢
 

Is your definition of “competing for a cup” in an individual year ONLY if they get to the cup finals? Nothing else is considered “competing for the cup”?

For me, if you make the playoffs, you are technically, realistically competing for the cup.

 

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Here's another way of looking at this:

Seguin Eichel

Benn Reinhart

Radulov Skinner

Pavelski Staal

Gurianov Olofsson

Hintz Cozens

Faksa (Larsson)

Comeau (Girgensons)

Perry Okposo

Cogliano Kahun

Kiviranta (Vesey)

Dickinson Lazar

 

Heiskanen Dahlin

Lindell Ristolainen

Klingberg Montour

Oleksiak McCabe

Sekera Jokiharju

Hanley/Fedun Miller

Khudobin Ulmark

 

Player for player we aren't that far behind a Stanley Cup finalist. Now Dallas isn't great, but they played well at the right time.

Improve the chemistry, grow the youth, make an upgrade or two, we're in the mix.

Edited by dudacek
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^Having Jack really does keep us within reach, even if its by a few degrees or so. It's good to have him. 

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^

The above is why I have issues with thread starts like these.  we have one of the most difficult things to get, high end talent.  The last 2 GM's miserably failed to fill out the entire middle of the roster and goal tending.  Adams has yet another opportunity to see if he can build the right combination of players to get into the playoffs and beyond - because of all the UFAs and RFAs, the roster can be built over again..  It shouldn't be this hard.  These players are where the most movement is in the NHL and the price isn't outrageous.  

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4 hours ago, 7+6=13 said:

^

The above is why I have issues with thread starts like these.  we have one of the most difficult things to get, high end talent.  The last 2 GM's miserably failed to fill out the entire middle of the roster and goal tending.  Adams has yet another opportunity to see if he can build the right combination of players to get into the playoffs and beyond - because of all the UFAs and RFAs, the roster can be built over again..  It shouldn't be this hard.  These players are where the most movement is in the NHL and the price isn't outrageous.  

Actually we don't. You really think Tampa would be in the final if their top wingers were Reinhart and Skinner?  They wouldn't be top line players in Dallas, Boston, Colorado, and a fair ways further down the list.  We are thin all over and have already overpaid and over valued what we do have. 

The stuff about the middle I totally agree with though. We could be better there with the right moves. 

Edited by PerreaultForever

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11 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

Actually we don't. You really think Tampa would be in the final if their top wingers were Reinhart and Skinner?  They wouldn't be top line players in Dallas, Boston, Colorado, and a fair ways further down the list.  We are thin all over and have already overpaid and over valued what we do have. 

The stuff about the middle I totally agree with though. We could be better there with the right moves. 

Agree. Tampa has the most talented roster which as it should be if you win the cup. It doesn't always work that way but all being equal t should. I'm not looking that high, I guess, but I certainly think we are not far talent wise to playoffs but to actually compete for a cup? A ways to go. TB is going to be good for awhile but the team you see now will, I think, be torn down a bit for sure. Meant to say torn down a bit this off season.

Edited by Radar

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Almost as though the Sabres prospect pool is a problem... which I have been saying for over a year. 

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Sam Reinhart would rank 5th in points on the Lightning behind Kucherov, Stamkos, Point, and Hedman... all while he spent the year playing for the Sabres. 

 

7 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

Actually we don't. You really think Tampa would be in the final if their top wingers were Reinhart and Skinner?  They wouldn't be top line players in Dallas, Boston, Colorado, and a fair ways further down the list.  We are thin all over and have already overpaid and over valued what we do have. 

The stuff about the middle I totally agree with though. We could be better there with the right moves. 

iron man eye roll GIF

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8 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Sam Reinhart would rank 5th in points on the Lightning behind Kucherov, Stamkos, Point, and Hedman... all while he spent the year playing for the Sabres. 

 

iron man eye roll GIF

Everyone here knows his bias and blind dislike for Sam. Anything and everything he pontificates about Sam is completely disregarded. Sam and Skinner on the lightning would be damn good!

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32 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Sam Reinhart would rank 5th in points on the Lightning behind Kucherov, Stamkos, Point, and Hedman... all while he spent the year playing for the Sabres. 

 

iron man eye roll GIF

 

8 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

Actually we don't. You really think Tampa would be in the final if their top wingers were Reinhart and Skinner?  They wouldn't be top line players in Dallas, Boston, Colorado, and a fair ways further down the list.  We are thin all over and have already overpaid and over valued what we do have. 

The stuff about the middle I totally agree with though. We could be better there with the right moves. 

Reinhart playing on a Tampa team with its loaded talented roster would be even a better player, and he's a good player right now. And with Skinner moved backed to the Jack line he could be a 35-40 goal scorer. A good player playing on a lackluster roster is a lesser player than the same player playing on a star studded roster. Jack playing on a robust team like Tampa is a better player than he playing on a thin team like Buffalo, even if his stats would not be as good. 

When comparing players and stats there is a context. And that context is the overall talent level of the team. It makes a difference that goes beyond individual stats. 

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Well according to an Athletic article for a not happening World Cup of Hockey tournament, we have 4 Sabres on various teams, with a 5th deserving a sub spot. That doesn't include Samson, Skinner or Staal. I don't think we're as far away as some of you guys think. 1 from USA, 2 from Sweden and 1 from Finland. 

Edited by jsb
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18 hours ago, sweetlou said:

My point in post is that Sabres are a few years away from competing for Cup so fans need to have realistic expectations.  Even if they can happen to sneak into the playoffs in the next couple of years look for early round exists.  They need to keep Jack happy so this means definitely getting more competitive. 

Thank you for that incredible insight, Captain Obvious.  In other groundbreaking news, Sweetlou predicts it will snow in Buffalo this winter. 

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5 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Sam Reinhart would rank 5th in points on the Lightning behind Kucherov, Stamkos, Point, and Hedman... all while he spent the year playing for the Sabres. 

 

iron man eye roll GIF

Perfect example of how you can use a stat for a meaningless result. You simply can't transfer point totals on one team and assume it would all be the same somewhere else. How would he fit there? Who would he replace? How much ice time would he get? Too many differences to make this in any way meaningful. 

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I was listing players on Tampa by points, not projecting how many points a Sabres player would get on Tampa.

I was more comparing the type of players on each team. The Sabres neither have the skill or physical type of players that Tampa has.

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6 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

Perfect example of how you can use a stat for a meaningless result. You simply can't transfer point totals on one team and assume it would all be the same somewhere else. How would he fit there? Who would he replace? How much ice time would he get? Too many differences to make this in any way meaningful. 

C'mon man, don't be obtuse when you know the point being made.  That's like me saying, why'd you leave Jack and Dahlin out of our high end talent?  When i know you already count them.  My personal post didn't necessarily say we're player for player with the games best teams, it's that we've acquired top talent and its so hard to get.  It has to be home grown and ours are.  Building the middle has been the disaster, we have to agree on that?

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