So #8

[GASabresIUFAN]

If Rossi, Raymond and Perfetti are gone at 8, I’m trading down to 10 and grabbing the highest player on their list of Lundell, Holtz, Jarvis or Quinn.

Edited October 5, 2020 by GASabresIUFAN

[dudacek]

18 minutes ago, Thorny said:

That would drastically defy the odds. You listed 8 players. The chances they all end up "good" (thought admittedly dealing with some subjective wording here) is low. 

Well, at least drafting a "good" player with any and ALL of the 8, would. If the bar is simply "improvement", from the 8th slot overall, sure. An exceptionally low bar.

Yes it would.

Nugent-Hopkins, Landeskog, Huberdeau, Larsson, Strome, Zibenijad, Scheifele, Couturier, Hamilton, Brodin.

I think it’s a similar draft. I hope we get the Zibanejad not the Strome - and I have no idea who is who - but all 10 players would improve our team.

Edited October 5, 2020 by dudacek

[JohnC]

3 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

If Rossi, Raymond and Perfetti are gone at 8, I’m trading down to 10 and grabbing the highest player on their list of Lundell, Holtz, Jarvis or Quinn.

Why not stay at 8 and draft one of those remaining players you listed? Why would a team at 10 trade up to 8 when they can get a similar caliber of player they want? Why try to get cute? Just draft the highest rated player on your board when your turn comes up. Very often when you try to outsmart someone you end up outsmarting yourself. 

[Thorny]

8 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Yes it would.

Nugent-Hopkins, Landeskog, Huberdeau, Larsson, Strome, Zibenijad, Scheifele, Couturier, Hamilton, Brodin.

I think it’s a similar draft. I hope we get the Zibanejad not the Strome - and I have no idea who is who - but all 10 players would improve our team.

Ya, I mean even Alex Nylander improved the team, ipso facto. Like I said, low bar.

I'm with you that I'm hoping it's one of those really strong drafts. Larsson, Strome, and Brodin all represent players that would be a disappointment at 8. 30% of those listed. 

And that's a strong draft.

13 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

If Rossi, Raymond and Perfetti are gone at 8, I’m trading down to 10 and grabbing the highest player on their list of Lundell, Holtz, Jarvis or Quinn.

I'm with you. Actually no - but I would be if Lundell is gone, too, and with that one strike out noted not being an option for us, by choice. 

Edited October 5, 2020 by Thorny

[dudacek]

1 minute ago, Thorny said:

Ya, I mean even Alex Nylander improved the team, ipso facto. Like I said, low bar.

I'm with you that I'm hoping it's one of those really strong drafts. 

I think we’re on the same page now, but there is no Alex Nylander here. 
IMO, Strome is easily the worst of the lot, and even he’s hit 50 points twice. (I guess Nylander could still hit Strome heights) The rest are all easily top six forwards or top 3 defencemen.

[Thorny]

10 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I think we’re on the same page now, but there is no Alex Nylander here. 
IMO, Strome is easily the worst of the lot, and even he’s hit 50 points twice. (I guess Nylander could still hit Strome heights) The rest are all easily top six forwards or top 3 defencemen.

Strome, Brodin, Larsson all would be disappointments from the 8 slot. 

How do I know? We can trade the pick right now for better. At a better timeline. 

Would you trade 8 overall for those 3 players? If the answer is no, you are EXPECTING better. Not hoping, expecting. That's the play. 

Would we trade 8 overall today for RNH? Hamilton? Landeskog? Actually asking. If we can trade the pick for better than over half the list, in a deep draft, why the hell are we picking?

If you are happy with most of the players on that list, we should probably move the pick anyways, because it's far, far more likely we get a mid range player than one of the top guys by picking, and there's no way I'm valuing the % chance at something better more than the CERTAINTY of acquisition we can gain now, at a far better timeline for Jack. 

Edited October 5, 2020 by Thorny

[Pimlach]

11 minutes ago, JohnC said:

Why not stay at 8 and draft one of those remaining players you listed? Why would a team at 10 trade up to 8 when they can get a similar caliber of player they want? Why try to get cute? Just draft the highest rated player on your board when your turn comes up. Very often when you try to outsmart someone you end up outsmarting yourself. 

He thinks this is an NFL draft.  
 

 

[Pimlach]

Given the salary cap and financial constraints that all teams will face this is the year I trade #8 for a known quantity - a top 6 forward or a goalie. 
 

I am not interested in waiting 2-3 years for #8 to develop.  I want to make the playoffs now.   Adams better heed this advice.   

[Flashsabre]

7 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

Given the salary cap and financial constraints that all teams will face this is the year I trade #8 for a known quantity - a top 6 forward or a goalie. 
 

I am not interested in waiting 2-3 years for #8 to develop.  I want to make the playoffs now.   Adams better heed this advice.   

Which goalie are you trading #8 for?  Which goalie is worth a top 10 pick and is going to singlehandedly propel this team?
 

There are a ton of quality goalies available this offseason.  Sign one or trade for one from a team trying to dump salary.  Fix the defensive structure and the team will be much more successful.  

[Curt]

33 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Ya, I mean even Alex Nylander improved the team, ipso facto. Like I said, low bar.

I'm with you that I'm hoping it's one of those really strong drafts. Larsson, Strome, and Brodin all represent players that would be a disappointment at 8. 30% of those listed. 

And that's a strong draft.

I'm with you. Actually no - but I would be if Lundell is gone, too, and with that one strike out noted not being an option for us, by choice. 

Adam Larsson and Jonas Brodin would represent a disappointment at 8 OA?  They are top 4 defensemen.  I don’t think that would be disappointing.

[dudacek]

27 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Strome, Brodin, Larsson all would be disappointments from the 8 slot. 

How do I know? We can trade the pick right now for better. At a better timeline. 

Would you trade 8 overall for those 3 players? If the answer is no, you are EXPECTING better. Not hoping, expecting. That's the play. 

Would we trade 8 overall today for RNH? Hamilton? Landeskog? Actually asking. If we can trade the pick for better than over half the list, in a deep draft, why the hell are we picking?

If you are happy with most of the players on that list, we should probably move the pick anyways, because it's far, far more likely we get a mid range player than one of the top guys by picking, and there's no way I'm valuing the % chance at something better more than the CERTAINTY of acquisition we can gain now, at a far better timeline for Jack. 

Looking at the calibre of players typically picked between 6-10, I would say Strome is probably below average, Brodin and Larsson are probably average and the others are above average. So getting a Strome is the only one I would consider a disappointment from that spot and yes, this year, I am expecting a better player than Strome for that pick.

Contracts complicate your trade scenario, but generally speaking, one would take, for example, Dougie Hamilton, over a guy you expect to become the equal of Dougie Hamilton. It’s just a safer bet.

[Thorny]

7 minutes ago, Curt said:

Adam Larsson and Jonas Brodin would represent a disappointment at 8 OA?  They are top 4 defensemen.  I don’t think that would be disappointing.

Yes. I'd argue being happy with those players, at 8, would be logically inarguable. Do you really not think we can deal the pick, right now, for a better player?

Never mind the fact that we have Jack Eichel right now, and Adam Larsson and Jonas Brodin didn't become Adam Larsson and Jonas Brodin until several years after being drafted. 

Using the pick and coming away with Jonas Brodin in 5 years would be a farce when we have a superstar talent sniffing around the management goals as we speak. 

Edited October 5, 2020 by Thorny

[Thorny]

4 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Looking at the calibre of players typically picked between 6-10, I would say Strome is probably below average, Brodin and Larsson are probably average and the others are above average. So getting a Strome is the only one I would consider a disappointment from that spot and yes, this year, I am expecting a better player than Strome for that pick.

Contracts complicate your trade scenario, but generally speaking, one would take, for example, Dougie Hamilton, over a guy you expect to become the equal of Dougie Hamilton. It’s just a safer bet.

Duda! I'm sending you down a rope to pull you outa that vacuum.

We can trade the pick for better, right now, than some of the players you wouldn't be disappointed in getting, 5 years from now. 

Edited October 5, 2020 by Thorny

[Curt]

5 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Yes. I'd argue being happy with those players, at 8, would be logically inarguable. Do you really not think we can deal the pick, right now, for a better player?

Never mind the fact that we have Jack Eichel right now, and Adam Larsson and Jonas Brodin didn't become Adam Larsson and Jonas Brodin until several years after being drafted. 

You think that 8 OA would obtain RNH or Landeskog?  I’m not so sure.

Then there is the aspect of reduced salary during ELC/RFA years and the years of team control.

[Thorny]

3 minutes ago, Curt said:

You think that 8 OA would obtain RNH or Landeskog?  I’m not so sure.

Then there is the aspect of reduced salary during ELC/RFA years and the years of team control.

It would assuredly garner a better player than several on that list, which was a deep draft. The fact we could probably get a player ~ the level of those guys you mentioned, at a much better timeline renders the arguable differences between them, and the hypothetical player, moot.

Edited October 5, 2020 by Thorny

[dudacek]

3 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Yes. I'd argue being happy with those players, at 8, would be logically inarguable. Do you really not think we can deal the pick, right now, for a better player?

Well, it hasn’t happened very often. Is Jordan Staal The best player ever acquired for pick 8? And that was pick 8 a player And a prospect. Jeff Carter was for 8 and Voracek.

So is Jonas Brodin worth 2/3s of Jordan Staal or 1/2 of Jeff Carter?

[Thorny]

8 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Well, it hasn’t happened very often. Is Jordan Staal The best player ever acquired for pick 8? And that was pick 8 a player And a prospect. Jeff Carter was for 8 and Voracek.

So is Jonas Brodin worth 2/3s of Jordan Staal or 1/2 of Jeff Carter?

It doesn't happen because people love the mystery box. Always have, always will. 

Btw, that was a terrible evaluation of Voracek, at the time. Luckily, we don't have very many good young forwards that were at his level at the time of the deal (AFTER which he eventually exploded)

8 and VO (the rough comparable) for prime Jeff Carter (who would go on to win Cups with the Kings in a big role)? 

Absolutely!

Edited October 5, 2020 by Thorny

[dudacek]

Just now, Thorny said:

It doesn't happen because people love the mystery box. Always have, always will. 

This seems to have strayed a long way from me saying that at 8 we will get a good player.

If it’s through a trade, Im fine with that.

[Thorny]

1 minute ago, dudacek said:

This seems to have strayed a long way from me saying that at 8 we will get a good player.

If it’s through a trade, Im fine with that.

Good. I like talking Sabres.

[GASabresIUFAN]

19 minutes ago, JohnC said:

Why not stay at 8 and draft one of those remaining players you listed? Why would a team at 10 trade up to 8 when they can get a similar caliber of player they want? Why try to get cute? Just draft the highest rated player on your board when your turn comes up. Very often when you try to outsmart someone you end up outsmarting yourself. 

 

18 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Ya, I mean even Alex Nylander improved the team, ipso facto. Like I said, low bar.

I'm with you that I'm hoping it's one of those really strong drafts. Larsson, Strome, and Brodin all represent players that would be a disappointment at 8. 30% of those listed. 

And that's a strong draft.

I'm with you. Actually no - but I would be if Lundell is gone, too, and with that one strike out noted not being an option for us, by choice. 

 8 is honestly the worst place to draft historically in the top 10.  Since Derian Hatcher was drafted 8th overall in 1990, the best picks at 8 in the last 30 years are William Nylander, Couterier, Werenski and then Risto.  Most of the rest are depth players or garbage.  That's not a good track record.   Slots 9-11 have produced better players on average, including stars like Jeff Carter, Kopitar and Iginla (strangely all 11th overall picks).  For Example Sergachev and Jost went 9-10 after we took Nylander at 8.

 Don't know why it works like this, but it's seem that 8 is no man's land every year and we usually guess wrong.

 

[Thorny]

2 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

 

 8 is honestly the worst place to draft historically in the top 10.  Since Derian Hatcher was drafted 8th overall in 1990, the best picks at 8 in the last 30 years are William Nylander, Couterier, Werenski and then Risto.  Most of the rest are depth players or garbage.  That's not a good track record.   Slots 9-11 have produced better players on average, including stars like Jeff Carter, Kopitar and Iginla (strangely all 11th overall picks).  For Example Sergachev and Jost went 9-10 after we took Nylander at 8.

 Don't know why it works like this, but it's seem that 8 is no man's land every year and we usually guess wrong.

 

I've looked into this before because it annoyed my OCD and couldn't figure out why 8 almost always sucks (relatively).

Couldn't figure it out, it's maddening. 

[inkman]

Barf.

Final NHL mock draft: How the first round shakes out after Lafreniere https://insider.espn.com/nhl/insider/story/_/id/30039762/nhl-mock-draft-2020-chris-peters-final-first-round-projections-all-31-picks-starting-alexis-lafreniere

via @ESPN App http://espn.com/app

Edited October 5, 2020 by inkman

[Eleven]

14 minutes ago, inkman said:

Barf.

Final NHL mock draft: How the first round shakes out after Lafreniere https://insider.espn.com/nhl/insider/story/_/id/30039762/nhl-mock-draft-2020-chris-peters-final-first-round-projections-all-31-picks-starting-alexis-lafreniere

via @ESPN App http://espn.com/app

It's paywalled.  Who does ESPN have the Sabres taking?

[kas23]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

 

 8 is honestly the worst place to draft historically in the top 10.  Since Derian Hatcher was drafted 8th overall in 1990, the best picks at 8 in the last 30 years are William Nylander, Couterier, Werenski and then Risto.  Most of the rest are depth players or garbage.  That's not a good track record.   Slots 9-11 have produced better players on average, including stars like Jeff Carter, Kopitar and Iginla (strangely all 11th overall picks).  For Example Sergachev and Jost went 9-10 after we took Nylander at 8.

 Don't know why it works like this, but it's seem that 8 is no man's land every year and we usually guess wrong.

 

I get that it’s fun trivia, but the #8 pick has nothing to do with a player’s skill and shouldn’t have any influence on trading it. It’s like trying to prevent an airplane crash by dressing up like a clown in the cabin bathroom. What are the chances of crashing AND having a passenger dress up like a clown mid flight? Unrelated. 

[Radar]

16 minutes ago, kas23 said:

I get that it’s fun trivia, but the #8 pick has nothing to do with a player’s skill and shouldn’t have any influence on trading it. It’s like trying to prevent an airplane crash by dressing up like a clown in the cabin bathroom. What are the chances of crashing AND having a passenger dress up like a clown mid flight? Unrelated. 

What?but