So #8

[dudacek]

3 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Just not sold on him at 8, though, from almost all accounts it would be a pretty big reach - something they said they wouldn't do. Holtz definitely strikes me as more of a lurker than Quinn you are spot on there, but Quinn is still more of a finisher and from what I'm led to believe - his advanced metrics do not look great compared to others in the range. As a right shot right wing goal scorer I still see "to play with Jack" being a big motivator there if he's the selection. 

I don't know why they wouldn't at the very least trade down, but more beneficially trade the pick if he's the best available in their eyes. Seeing as though he'd be years away, anyways. The Wild and the Jets aren't taking Quinn, we can at least make one of the two pay up to get a C. If not drop down further. 

But we had the "trade it" discussion yesterday. 

If it is Quinn, then making Winnipeg or Minny pay a premium for Lundell makes sense.

But the thing you are overlooking in this scenario is that Quinn is not a reach — we've been told there are teams that have him in the top 10 and that Ottawa is considering him at 5.

They'd be picking him because Rossi and Raymond and Perfetti are gone, and they like him better than Lundell and Holtz and Askarov and the defencemen, which is a perfectly legitimate POV.

[Flashsabre]

https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/marco-rossi-got-bigger-stronger-faster-shocked/
 

 

[Thorny]

5 minutes ago, dudacek said:

If it is Quinn, then making Winnipeg or Minny pay a premium for Lundell makes sense.

But the thing you are overlooking in this scenario is that Quinn is not a reach — we've been told there are teams that have him in the top 10 and that Ottawa is considering him at 5.

They'd be picking him because Rossi and Raymond and Perfetti are gone, and they like him better than Lundell and Holtz and Askarov and the defencemen, which is a perfectly legitimate POV.

Not really - the scenario we are talking about has Rossi going to Minny at 9, no?

Regardless, to me it's a reach either way. If you definition of not a reach is merely having at least someone rank the player in that range, no one is going to be a reach. His ranks from the main outlets are as follows, I'm trying to talk about this from a consensus point of view:

Elite Prospects - 16th

Future Considerations - 20th

ISS Hockey - 10th

Craig Button - 7th

McKeen's Hockey - 10th

Dobber Prospects - 17th

McKenzie - 10th

- - - 

EP's consolidated ranking from all the outlets is 12th. So it's not a massive reach but it's still a 50% reach from 8. And if Rossi is on the board, it's just a bad pick. 

 

Edited October 6, 2020 by Thorny

[dudacek]

8 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Not really - the scenario we are talking about has Rossi going to Minny at 9, no?

Regardless, to me it's a reach either way. If you definition of not a reach is merely having at least someone rank the player in that range, no one is going to be a reach. His ranks from the main outlets are as follows, I'm trying to talk about this from a consensus point of view:

Elite Prospects - 16th

Future Considerations - 20th

ISS Hockey - 10th

Craig Button - 7th

McKeen's Hockey - 10th

Dobber Prospects - 17th

McKenzie - 10th

- - - 

EP's consolidated ranking from all the outlets is 12th. So it's not a massive reach but it's still a 50% reach from 8. And if Rossi is on the board, it's just a bad pick. 

 

I was talking about the Chad D quote that said expect Quinn if Rossi isn't there,  which was later clarified to add Raymond and Perfetti.

As far as the "reach" part goes, i was responding to your statement that Adams said they wouldn't reach (which I didn't hear). I guess I need clarification about what that means. If they are picking the #6 guy on their board with the 8th pick, is that a reach? Should they not pick the 6th guy on their board because the consensus ranks him 12th? Then why have scouts? Or are you saying that Quinn is actually ranked lower than 8 on the Sabres board, but they are picking him over guys they ranked higher because of reasons?

[Thorny]

13 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I was talking about the Chad D quote that said expect Quinn if Rossi isn't there,  which was later clarified to add Raymond and Perfetti.

As far as the "reach" part goes, i was responding to your statement that Adams said they wouldn't reach (which I didn't hear). I guess I need clarification about what that means. If they are picking the #6 guy on their board with the 8th pick, is that a reach? Should they not pick the 6th guy on their board because the consensus ranks him 12th? Then why have scouts? Or are you saying that Quinn is actually ranked lower than 8 on the Sabres board, but they are picking him over guys they ranked higher because of reasons?

Ya, first bold - the discussion is going on in a few threads so maybe the Rossi to Wild bit was in a different thread but that was a key point to me, re: selecting Quinn. 

Second bold - I thought that was a big discussion point going around on here? I'll try and find a link to what he said

The rest - I think we can see the discussion is a bit fruitless. Their board could be anything, it's like trying to prove a negative. If all we care about is them staying true to their board, and we are going to trust whatever their board is, I don't see where a disagreeing take is allowed to come in. No matter who they pick we can say "well, guess they had him high on their board, have to go BPA!"

Ok. But like, my reading of the consensus is Quinn is ranked a fait bit lower than 8th, like, in general. The consensus. My personal reading has him lower than 8th and I like different players that will be available more, so yes to me personally I would consider it at reach, from my interpretation of the general data available. 

If we have to default to their individual list (which we can't/don't know) in the end, it's not practically possible to argue they are "reaching" within that context. 

Edited October 6, 2020 by Thorny

[Thorny]

https://buffalonews.com/sports/sabres/how-the-sabres-scouting-department-prepared-for-the-virtual-nhl-draft/article_5e917fc4-075f-11eb-b368-5340fa3e4ae3.html#tracking-source=home-top-story-1

"Though the Sabres are well-stocked on defense and in goal, Crowe noted during a video call with reporters Monday that rosters change rapidly in the NHL. Selecting a player based on short-term need can lead to reaching for a prospect whom the scouts do not “believe” can make as significant an impact at the highest level."

[Thorny]

Also of note in that article - 

"This draft could also reveal whether Adams, Crowe and the scouting staff prefer players from certain leagues or countries. Botterill’s 18 selections illustrate a potential reluctance to draft from the Canadian Hockey League, which prevents prospects from competing in the minor leagues before their 21st birthday: Sweden (6), Finland (3), United States Hockey League (6), Czech Republic (1), NCAA (1) and Western Hockey League (1)."

[dudacek]

2 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Ya, first bold - the discussion is going on in a few threads so maybe the Rossi to Wild bit was in a different thread but that was a key point to me, re: selecting Quinn. 

Second bold - I thought that was a big discussion point going around on here? I'll try and find a link to what he said

The rest - I think we can see the discussion is a bit fruitless. Their board could be anything, it's like trying to prove a negative. If all we care about is them staying true to their board, and we are going to trust whatever their board is, I don't see where a disagreeing take is allowed to come in. No matter who they pick we can say "well, guess they had him high on their board, have to go BPA!"

Ok. But like, my reading of the consensus is Quinn is ranked a fait bit lower than 8th, like, in general. The consensus. My personal reading has him lower than 8th and I like different players that will be available more, so yes to me personally I would consider it at reach, from my interpretation of the general data available. 

I think that list you showed is fair consensus of the opinions out there, but when you read a little deeper you see Quinn as one of those players that some people include in the 2nd tier of choices and some don't. More or less, he occupies similar space to Sanderson, Holtz, Lundell, Jarvis  and Askarov in the 8-14 range behind Drysdale, Perfetti, Rossi and Raymond, after the big three.

I think anyone in that tier is a legitimate consideration at 8. It's if you drop down below that tier that's when you really start talking reaches.

[Thorny]

 

 

[Eleven]

1 minute ago, Thorny said:

 

 

Worth thinking about.

[Thorny]

Just now, Eleven said:

Worth thinking about.

There's the follow up in the thread about how then we'd have a 50 goal D1 player on our hands, which is a point - but it's addressed in-thread by the next point brought up, that we should be skeptical of anyone with a sudden improvement on a stacked team. 

There are too many flags for me with Quinn. 

[dudacek]

4 minutes ago, Thorny said:

 

 

And everyone would have been shaking their heads about how Tampa found yet another stud in the third round.

[Thorny]

Just now, dudacek said:

And everyone would have been shaking their heads about how Tampa found yet another stud in the third round.

Like I said, a big D1 jump out of nowhere on a stacked team doesn't always for tell great things. 

I'm not sure what counts as a valid argument for being weary of Quinn or really any player other than Lundell but, it's where I'm at. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

36 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Also of note in that article - 

"This draft could also reveal whether Adams, Crowe and the scouting staff prefer players from certain leagues or countries. Botterill’s 18 selections illustrate a potential reluctance to draft from the Canadian Hockey League, which prevents prospects from competing in the minor leagues before their 21st birthday: Sweden (6), Finland (3), United States Hockey League (6), Czech Republic (1), NCAA (1) and Western Hockey League (1)."

Last I looked CHL players can enter the AHL at 20 not 21.  20 year olds playing in the CHL are overagers.

[Thorny]

2 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Last I looked CHL players can enter the AHL at 20 not 21.  20 year olds playing in the CHL are overagers.

Ya I suppose that's an error but the central point re: potential revelations re: draft strategy remains. 

Edited October 6, 2020 by Thorny

[GASabresIUFAN]

Just now, Thorny said:

Ya I suppose that's an error but the central point re: potential revelations re: draft strategy remain. 

Hard to trust an article when they get simple facts wrong.  That said, I'd be surprised if they don't draft more CHL players then Botts did.

[dudacek]

2 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Like I said, a big D1 jump out of nowhere on a stacked team doesn't always for tell great things. 

I'm not sure what counts as a valid argument for being weary of Quinn or really any player other than Lundell but, it's where I'm at. 

It's an interesting test of the revised Sabres evaluation process, where they are supposed to be delving into the analytics of Quinn's game and determining the 'why'

Also, have the Sabres ever drafted a Jack who sucked?

[Thorny]

6 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Hard to trust an article when they get simple facts wrong.  That said, I'd be surprised if they don't draft more CHL players then Botts did.

This is ridiculous. What point from that paragraph do you disagree with? Do you disagree that Botterill avoided the CHL, selecting from the leagues/nationalities listed? And that who Adams selects should be interesting to get an idea of his style? Come on. 

Argumentative for the sake of being argumentative. You know the point I made by posting that was to show it'll be interesting to see if the strategy changes, nothing more. That they said age 21 instead of 20 doesn't change that fact. It was just a reminder of Botterill's drafting breakdown, I'm not asking you to subscribe to their newsletter or opinions, or "trust" anything. 

Edited October 6, 2020 by Thorny

[rakish]

While I prefer Rossi to Quinn, the 67 watchers on HFB are often in the Quinn camp

[Thorny]

9 minutes ago, rakish said:

While I prefer Rossi to Quinn, the 67 watchers on HFB are often in the Quinn camp

Obviously you know much more about prospects than I, but I do know that a lot of Leafs fans prefer Marner to Matthews for the fact that he is Canadian. There are assuredly other factors that come into play but, I wouldn't dismiss a level of bias being a factor among Ottawa's junior fans, either. 

[LGR4GM]

53 minutes ago, rakish said:

While I prefer Rossi to Quinn, the 67 watchers on HFB are often in the Quinn camp

Interesting. I wonder if I have underestimated Quinn. His year 17 scoring really concerns me but this past year he was really good. The tape matches the numbers so he is a hard one to place.

[LGR4GM]

Scouting report Marco Rossi

https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/scouching-17-marco-rossi-ottawa-67s-videoanalytics-breakdown/

Quote

We’ll start with this: 82% of offensive transitions that Rossi was involved in were done with control, the best of anyone profiled, and trails only Brett Berard in all my tracking so far. He dethroned Marat Khusnutdinov’s rate of 53.3 controlled offensive transitions per 60 with 53.9. The guy just knows how to move pucks with control up the ice, whether it’s passing or carrying it; using skill, speed, or raw determination to do so. He’s excellent with his edgework and hands navigating around the ice, can play dynamically at high or low speeds, works hard on backchecks, and knows how to create space between himself and opponents very effectively.

With 70% of his shots coming from danger areas, and 32.5% coming from high danger, Rossi has tremendous offensive potential to score goals on paper. His skill and attacking mentality gets him to the net and he can move pucks into even better scoring areas to open up as much of the net as possible. 12.21 high and medium danger attempts per 60 trails Cole Perfetti, Seth Jarvis and Brett Berard, but surpasses Quinton Byfield and even Alexis Lafreniere as of today. Only Seth Jarvis has a higher share of total team attempts from dangerous areas.

 

Edited October 6, 2020 by LGR4GM

[Brawndo]

Jeremy White just tweeted Watch for Rossi or Sanderson At 8OA 

[Thorny]

2 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

Jeremy White just tweeted Watch for Rossi or Sanderson At 8OA 

Chad said watch for Rossi or Quinn. 

We are going to take Rossi if he's there. 

[LGR4GM]

Well, I guess we know the 3 options they think are possible.