Player development can actually happen

[dudacek]

I get why Sabrespace underrates development, I really do.

It has been a long time since we’ve seen it.

 

This is a team that squandered back-to-back first rounders on Marek Zagrapan and Dennis Persson, a team that traded away six picks in the first three rounds between 2006 and 2011 and exacerbated that problem by implementing a bargain-basement video scouting system that handicapped their draft results to the point they produced only 10 NHLers over that span - four of whom were in another organization by the time they arrived.

 

And even when they grabbed themselves a player, they never actually developed him. Instead, they just kinda arrived and never got better. Stafford, Myers, Ennis, Foligno - they all seemed to never advance beyond their first appearances. Hell, they often seemed to regress.

 

Even the earliest fruits of the tank - Girgensons and Larsson - stalled.

 

But I’m here to tell you this isn’t normal. Forget what your recent Sabres experience has taught you. Young players do get better. It usually takes them 3-5 years after being drafted to arrive and they don’t you usually show you who they really are until they are sometime between the ages of 22 and 26.

 

Our players are just now starting to enter that window and I believe our suffering is about to start being rewarded.

 

Remember, the Sabres that emerged out of the lockout in 2006 weren’t full of 20-year-old fully blossomed rookies.

 

Brian Campbell was 26 and had yet to prove himself as an NHL regular.

Max Afinogenov was also 26, and had played five NHL seasons, but had never topped 40 points.

Henrik Tallinder also 26, with two NHL seasons and a grand total of 23 points under his belt.

Ales Kotalik was 25 with seasons of 36 and 25 points on his resume.

Ryan Miller was 25 and had played just 18 NHL games

Paul Gaustad was 23 and had played just one NHL game

Derek Roy was 22 and a third-year pro, Jason Pominville was 23 and a fourth year pro. They both started the season where they finished the previous season - in Rochester.

And Thomas Vanek was a 21-year-old second-year pro getting his first NHL chance.

 

None of them had done anything that noteworthy in the NHL prior to that season, but they all arrived at once and many of them continued to get better after arriving.

 

Just as development happened in the mid-2000s, it is happening now, even if the poor team performance on the ice masked some of it.

 

Many of us noted the maturity added to Jack Eichel’s game last year. He is only 21. Casey Nelson was awful at 23, but at 25 he looked like he may belong. Evan Rodrigues still carries a AAAA reputation in some quarters, but he produced numbers in the NHL this year that matched what he did in the AHL the year before, numbers that would have given him over 40 points over a full season. And Sam Reinhart may not have convinced his doubters, but, at 22, to close the season he put up one of the best 40-game stretches by a Buffalo Sabre in the past decade.

 

The tank was launched in earnest five years ago. It’s earliest acquisitions are just now starting to ripen and there is a large cohort coming in their wake.

 

Young players get better. Not all of them, and not all of those that do improve will improve enough to make a difference. This group will have its share of Jiri Novotnys.

 

But enough of the kids will develop to give me hope that this is a team on the rise.

And that rise could start happening as soon as this season.

Edited July 3, 2018 by dudacek

[Utica Club]

We're going nowhere till the Amerks are good.

 

Top shelf post, Duds.

[Sabre1974]

Agree. Good post and makes you hope that good times are hopefully coming. 

[Doohickie]

It sounds like a post I seem to remember making a year or two ago.  I left out the development angle though.

The other thing that should be mentioned is that JBot has snagged a whole lot of depth pieces.  And just as all top draft choices don't make it, some of the lesser prospects do.  I think a handful will emerge out of this current lot of signings and acquisitions.

I truly hope this coming season brings clarity:  We won't be wondering if it's Jack's team or ROR's team; that's settled.  I think Dahlin will provide an instant impact for the better, without bringing any toxic personality baggage.  I think Okposo will come out of camp flying this year; he was hampered by the concussion and subsequent reaction to the meds last year.  He seemed to be picking up his game as the season wound down.  Let's hope that trend continues.  This will be a make or break year for Bogo; the advantage is that he won't have to necessarily be a top pairing this year and maybe he can find his niche.

I like that JBot has brought in so many new faces, all of them competing for positions, all them them applying upward pressure to the roster.

Finally, I think...it's happening.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Nice post Duda.  

We have gotten so use to destroying our prospects by forcing them into the NHL to soon that we have forgotten what a real development curve looks like.  Bryon, Schaller, Ruhwedel are all recent examples.    This is why so many here are ready to call Nylander a bust at 20.  Lets call this Grigorenko disease.

The ROR trade also has illustrated our fan base’s affliction of Ville Leino disease.  Leino disease is that any veteran player acquired in trade or free agency by the Sabres is going to suck once they arrive. In some quarters it’s called Tim Murray disease.

 

[LGR4GM]

Agreed. I think Nylander should be given more time. Maybe an injured 19 year old playing in a men's league will coast and be mediocre. Maybe a healthy 20 year old can step up. 

[Randall Flagg]

The thing about Alex when he gets brought into comparison with a guy like Mittelstadt, there is exactly one prospect in the organization that, when watched by people who say exactly what they see and nothing more/less, gets their on-ice effort and commitment level dumped on uniformly. It's Alex. That's why a lot of people are down on him but love less-skilled prospects that in a vacuum you'd think had less NHL chance than Nylander. 

Sometimes we over-analyze and need to take a step back but sometimes the wonderful Rochester fans that give us info we wouldn't have otherwise really do know what they're watching too. 

I'm not "giving up" on Nylander, I would still coach him and let him try to earn his way in Training Camp and do my best to use him in Rochester if I was in charge, but I have zero NHL expectations of him UNTIL we see this change for the first time since being drafted. 

As far as this thread in general, wouldn't it be nice for things to finally kick in for us. 

[LGR4GM]

Nylander just needs a little more then Casey. That shouldn't mean we give up. Botterill at least seems invested in Nylander. His staff seems invested. I want to give him a year. I'm not ready to quit.

[Weave]

38 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

I'm not "giving up" on Nylander, I would still coach him and let him try to earn his way in Training Camp and do my best to use him in Rochester if I was in charge, but I have zero NHL expectations of him UNTIL we see this change for the first time since being drafted. 

 

This sums things up well.  Noone is suggesting that we give up on his development, but based on what's been seen and reported on by many leads most to have minimal expectations for his future. 

 

Let's see if he can bloom, but let's not assume that he actually will.

[darksabre]

Good post @dudacek

Darcy really killed us didn't he? 

[GoPuckYourself]

I believe it will take a few more drafts before the Amerks can contend on a regular basis. I wonder what the vision for left and right wing will be with so many center prospects.

[bob_sauve28]

Justin Bailey is going to be a good NHL winger! 

 

? 

[Eleven]

1 hour ago, darksabre said:

Good post @dudacek

Darcy really killed us didn't he? 

That's not my takeaway from his (excellent, btw) post; it was Regier who let all those guys develop in Rochester. Yes, he was assisted by the lockout.

[7+6=13]

Thank you dudacek.  

I've posted this same sentiment a few times and no one responded.  Not that I care about that but what's really happening is being largely ignored.  We finally have a GM that has been a first hand witness and participant on how to properly run an organization.  

Not only has he seen it and was a major part of the Wilkes development but he understands how to build once you have a couple of stars.  Let's not forget the reason JBot saw the Sabres job as an incredible opportunity is because of Eichel and when we won the lottery - he must have felt even more secure in his convictions.  

This team is going to be really good because of Eichel and Dahlin.  The pressure is off the organization because now the young prospects just need to be good not stars.  

Edited July 4, 2018 by 7+6=13

[DarthEbriate]

Agreed! It'll be fun to have that Detroit (or now Pittsburgh) style pipeline where a new guy shows up in time for every playoff... and they’re really Just a Guy... but they’re ready to contribute fully when they arrive and they aren’t being rushed. Then... when your Dahlin window begins to close (18 years from now) you can start rushing them or trading them for full-fledged NHLers again. In the meantime... build the pipeline. 

[Two or less]

I'm a big believer in player development as well. I also think that you can ruin a player if you misuse him, in our example i think Grigorenko and now Nylander may be cases of that. Once a player is derailed by a club, i think it takes a lot of work and determination from the player to get back on track. I think thats why it's good for a player to be traded sometimes because its a fresh start for the player and a renewed hope and new inspiration.

Former Sabres forward Dale Hawerchuk, now the head coach of the Barrie Colts, talked about the importance of junior hockey on guys like Mark Scheifele and i believe it:

Quote

Scheifele's final season as a Colt was pivotal because he figured out how to be a dominant goalscorer in the face of pressure from opposing team's top checkers, Hawerchuk said.

Winnipeg's six-foot-three, 207-pound centre is doing that again in this NHL post-season.

"It's important for guys to be able to do that in junior if you want them to do that at the pro level," Hawerchuk explained.

"He gets challenged after almost every whistle or when he carries the puck. They're looking to break him down. That comes with the territory. He got to understand that in junior."

Link- https://www.cbc.ca/sports/hockey/nhl/mark-scheifele-dale-hawerchuk-winnipeg-jets-1.4666381

Not all players are build the same or develop the same, but i do believe this to be the case for most players. Another reason why I was happy Cliff Pu remained in junior hockey last year and now i hope he spends a good portion in Rochester.

[...]

Great post.  Love the optimism.  Depth and development have been sorely lacking long before the tank, and JBot is finally attempting to address both, at least it seems from out here.  

With the ages our core players are at, now, I'm hopeful we see the likes of Eichel, Reinhart, Risto, and frankly, Ullmark emerge as players capable of carrying a team.  That's all we need, right now, is those four to take a step forward in their overall development. 

The changes, so far, ALMOST seem like they were made purposely to help this happen.  I don't want to give JBot too much credit...not yet, at least, not until another season has passed.   

Then you have Mittelstadt and Dahlin starting their pro journey as this happens, I'm actually kind of jazzed about this coming season, unlike the past few off-seasons.  

As far as Nylander goes - I hope to God someone got fired for neglecting him.  I know COR was moved because of what he did, but someone in the organization needs to keep a FAR closer eye on what's happening to these kids outside of the rink.  I don't mind giving Nylander another two seasons to see if he can recover from what happened, but the Sabres need to help that kid out.

The Sabres development method, process, strategy, whatever it is has reflected their on-ice play, in a weird way, just neglected, half-assed, and taken for granted.  One of the signs of how well JBot is doing will be on how serious they take and refine player development - Nylander might actually be a test case.  

Edited July 5, 2018 by ...