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GASabresIUFAN

2018 - 2019 Sabres Prospects

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28 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

Botterill said that UPL will turn pro next season. 

Cincinnati or Rochester with the former being most likely 

Or Europe

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On 12/24/2018 at 3:22 PM, GASabresIUFAN said:

I used to think that as well. But the math doesn’t support that idea any longer.

There are 710+ NHL players on 31 teams.  The vast majority were drafted.  However if GM’s average 2 a year that is only 20 players per team over a decade.  According to Quant Hockey 50% of all NHL players last 100 games or less for their careers, that means if even if teams produce 20 players over a decade, that half won't make much of an impact. Many others will be bottom 6 or 2rd pairing type players.  You simply can’t build a team with only 2 players a year.

I think modern GMs need 3 at a minimum; 4 would be better.

 

 

This pretty much explains why the Buffalo Sabres are in their current predicament. From 2005-2011, the drafting was absolutely ATROCIOUS. And then since the drafting began during the playoff drought (2012-now), the quality and quantity has been better but still lacking:

2012: Girgensons, McCabe, Ullmark

2013: Ristolainen

2014: Reinhart, Olofsson?

2015: Eichel, Guhle?, Borgen?

2016: Nylander?, Asplund?

2017: Mittelstadt, Davidsson?, Luukkonen?, Laaksonen?

2018: Dahlin, Samuelsson?, Pekar?

So in the past 7 drafts, we've only added 8 players currently on the roster and an additional 10 who have a reasonable shot of making it someday. That's insufficient in terms of quantity. In terms of quality, I'd say we're drafting okay for goaltending and defense but not at forward...which may partly explain our current predicament. So far we've only found two top-six forwards (Eichel and Reinhart), and it took back-to-back tank seasons to obtain them at #2 overall each. Skinner certainly helps, but it's very important that Mittelstadt and Nylander aren't busts. Otherwise, it puts a lot of extra pressure on JB to fill out the second scoring line via trades, free agency, and draft picks outside the top 10 picks.

 

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2 hours ago, pi2000 said:

Or Europe

Unlikely.  He had him go to Sudbury to better monitor his development.  Why send him back to Europe.

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4 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Unlikely.  He had him go to Sudbury to better monitor his development.  Why send him back to Europe.

I can't believe how many people haven't figured out Pi yet.  He's insinuating that the kid is gonna jump ship.

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2 seasons in the top Finnish league would be a step up from the CHL.

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7 minutes ago, Weave said:

I can't believe how many people haven't figured out Pi yet.  He's insinuating that the kid is gonna jump ship.

He already signed his ELC no jumping ship.

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29 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

He already signed his ELC no jumping ship.

I'm not sure why you're trying to engage me.  It wasn't my point being made.

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10 hours ago, pi2000 said:

2 seasons in the top Finnish league would be a step up from the CHL.

Finnish league? I think I want him in the Stoppish league. HAHA! 

But seriously, he is going to Rochester. No reason for him to play more hockey on a different ice surface and we need a Rochester goalie next year anyways. 

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6 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Finnish league? I think I want him in the Stoppish league. HAHA! 

But seriously, he is going to Rochester. No reason for him to play more hockey on a different ice surface and we need a Rochester goalie next year anyways. 

Only reason I can see why he won’t be splitting time between Roch and Cincy next year is that he is good enough to seize number one in Rochester. The Sabres signed him to control his development and he will play exactly where they want him to play.

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So where do we stand prospect wise after the World Jrs and midway through the AHL/NHL seasons?  I'm deleting Dahlin, Thompson, and Mittelstadt from my list because they are permanent NHLers  even though they have considerable growth ahead of them as players.   I'm keeping Pilut on the list for now because he has only played 12 NHL games YTD.

1) Pilut - has already proven he play 19-20 minutes a night and contribute on both ends.  5 pts in 12 NHL games (34 pts pace) and 22 pts in 16 AHL games.  

2) Nylander - 22 pts in 33 AHL games as a 20 year old is a big improvement.  Is also killing penalties and being more aggressive.  Probably gets a look see later in the year.  We desperately need top 6 forwards.  Is next year his year?

3) UPL - Basically Finland road his back in the medal round to a gold medal.  Will likely be the starter in Rochester next season.

4) Guhle - The 21 year old D has shown solid play in Rochester again (17 pts in 32 games) and was OK in his 2 game callup.  He needs to claim an NHL job soon or Laaksonen might just supplant him on the depth chart

5) Laaksonen - excellent 2 way play for the Fins at the WJC solidified opinions on how far this kid has come.  Still needs to add weight and signed a 2 year extension in Finland so it may be another year or two before he comes over.  R shoot D like Oskari among our biggest needs.

6) Samuelsson - Nearly 17 minutes a game at the WJC for the USA.  Not bad for an 18 year old.  Still looked slow at times and got beat on speed rush on a critical goal in the Sweden loss.  Also showing a little O in college with 8 pts in 16 games.

7) Smith - the 23 year old has 29 pts in 33 AHL games including 13 goals to lead all Amerks forwards.  Earned first callup and scored first NHL goal against the Devils

8.) Olofsson - this 23 year old making a nice transition to the AHL/NA.  30 pts in 33 AHL games.  Started off on a goal scoring tear, but has been showing good playmaking skills of late. 

9) Asplund - Not having quite the transition to the US that Pilut and Olofsson have had.  After a terrible start has 10 pts in 36 games.  We need centers so hopefully he picks it up.  

10) Davidsson - Showing slightly improved stats in Sweden.  Likely to come over next season.

11) Borgen - Stay at home D doing just that in Rochester.  Not sure how much upside he has, but we need players of his style.  5 pts in 36 games.

12) Pekar - Made the Czech WJC team and played sparingly.  Still having a good year in the CHL including being an ace PKer with 4 shorties.

13) Bailey - the 23 year old seems to be doing a decent job in Rochester.  20 pts in 35 games after a slow start.  He is big and can skate.  I think he still has a chance to make an impact in the NHL (maybe not in Buffalo) as an energy/physical forward who can add some secondary O.  

14) Dougherty - The 22 year old D acquired in the off-season leads all current Amerks with +11 in only 21 games after returning from injury. Former USNTDP player who has improved defensively in his 3 AHL seasons.  Might he eventually get a look?  I hope so. He was one of players I had hoped we would draft instead of the great Vaclav Karabacek.  He can move the puck and is also an RHD.

15) Weissbach- Former late rd pick still developing in college.  26 pts in 34 games as a freshman last year has added 11 pts in 10 games YTD.

After that there is a bunch of players who are struggling in the AHL or are doing just OK in college or elsewhere.  They include D like Bryson, Fitzgerald and Hickey and depth forwards like Cornel and Malone.  Glotov has had a decent start in the ECHL and earned a brief callup to the AHL.  Our other goalie, Johansson, is a starter for Cinn in the ECHL.  

 

This list shows how important to our depth and quality of our pipelines that the 4 1st rd picks the next 2 years are to the team’s future. We needs centers and top 6 forwards desperately.

 

 

Edited by GASabresIUFAN
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Gotta keep drafting and fixing the pipeline. It will spur internal competition and force everyone to be better. 

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@GASabresIUFAN Nice list.

I think Smith is too high. Thinking we've seen much closer to his ceiling that some of these other, younger players. I'd also favor someone like Brett Murray over Bailey. Murray is more likely to never make the NHL, but he also seems to have more upside, having a great season this year at still only age 20. I don't think there's much more to see with Bailey, seems to be what he is at this point, moreso. 

I suppose it depends how you structure lists like this - by NHL likelihood or potential upside. 

---

Definitely agree with your consensus, re: needing to stock up on C and top 6 forwards. On the plus side, our defensive pipeline looks very strong. Goaltending looks pretty good. 

Edited by Thorny

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50 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I'd also favor someone like Brett Murray over Bailey. Murray is more likely to never make the NHL, but he also seems to have more upside, having a great season this year at still only age 20.

Brett Murray is playing in the USHL as a 20 year old after 2 terrible seasons at Penn State.  That league is full of 17 and 18 year olds.  Hell, Murray played in that league at 18 before jumping to Penn State.  I wouldn't read anything into a 20 year old scoring 39 points in 29 games in that league.  Mittelstadt scored 30 points in 24 games in the USHL when he was still in high school.  In fact he left the USHL to go BACK to high school and win a state title.

I saw the guy play in person 6 times last year.  He might have hit somebody once.  He will be fortunate to get a sniff of Cincinnati let alone Rochester.

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25 minutes ago, Let's Go B-Lo said:

Brett Murray is playing in the USHL as a 20 year old after 2 terrible seasons at Penn State.  That league is full of 17 and 18 year olds.  Hell, Murray played in that league at 18 before jumping to Penn State.  I wouldn't read anything into a 20 year old scoring 39 points in 29 games in that league.  Mittelstadt scored 30 points in 24 games in the USHL when he was still in high school.  In fact he left the USHL to go BACK to high school and win a state title.

I saw the guy play in person 6 times last year.  He might have hit somebody once.  He will be fortunate to get a sniff of Cincinnati let alone Rochester.

Kris Baker tweets about him fairly frequently, really likes him and thinks he has a decent shot at a bottom 6 NHL role. Says he's potentially a late-bloomer. I know he's the Sabres prospects guy and tends to overhype, but he doesn't have much reason to single him out among our other prospects unless he actually thinks he has a shot. 

Edited by Thorny

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2 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Damn. I should probably stop following Kris Baker, I guess. Who really likes him and thinks he has a decent shot at a bottom 6 NHL role. 

You can follow whoever you like, I read Baker from time to time as well.  He's allowed to be wrong also.  I'm going to follow myself in this case since I KNOW I saw the kid in person multiple times over different parts of 2 seasons and didn't just scoop stats or video scout him.  

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1 hour ago, Let's Go B-Lo said:

You can follow whoever you like, I read Baker from time to time as well.  He's allowed to be wrong also.  I'm going to follow myself in this case since I KNOW I saw the kid in person multiple times over different parts of 2 seasons and didn't just scoop stats or video scout him.  

I was under the impression that Baker makes an attempt to view the prospects in person as well, but I could be wrong.

Either way, I can't question your viewpoint here as you saw what you saw. My hope is that he indeed is a late-bloomer, in which case his game this season would look much different to the version of Murray that you saw. 

Like I said, I still favor Bailey's chances of carving out a long-term NHL role, and that's something I don't see at this point in time as particularly likely. 

Edited by Thorny

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22 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

2) Nylander - 22 pts in 33 AHL games as a 20 year old is a big improvement.  Is also killing penalties and being more aggressive.  Probably gets a look see later in the year.  We desperately need top 6 forwards.  Is next year his year?

 

Personally I think we should cut bait and trade him to someone who thinks he has upside. I know they are not the same person, but the so called "good Nylander" has been atrocious for Toronto since landing the big contract and I question the character of both siblings. Hoping he sinks Toronto's cap but can the lesser brother be relied on for what we want in the future? I say no. 

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How do you know he is the "lesser brother"? 

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1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

locker room photos?

200w.webp?cid=3640f6095c38bf87343066722e

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19 hours ago, Let's Go B-Lo said:

Brett Murray is playing in the USHL as a 20 year old after 2 terrible seasons at Penn State.  That league is full of 17 and 18 year olds.  Hell, Murray played in that league at 18 before jumping to Penn State.  I wouldn't read anything into a 20 year old scoring 39 points in 29 games in that league.  Mittelstadt scored 30 points in 24 games in the USHL when he was still in high school.  In fact he left the USHL to go BACK to high school and win a state title.

I saw the guy play in person 6 times last year.  He might have hit somebody once.  He will be fortunate to get a sniff of Cincinnati let alone Rochester.

It's not completely unheard of though.  Sometimes players just aren't a fit with their college team, leave, then go on to better things.  The ones who pull it off tend to head to major junior instead, at least the ones who I am thinking of off the top of my head.  If the kid is by some chance a late bloomer, the team at least has the luxury to sit back and let it play out, not being the least bit rushed.  So say he does sign on with a new school and thrives there, that puts him at 22 if/when he graduates.  CJ Smith was 22 when we signed him and people seem to think he's got a shot.

I don't mean to compare the two players at all here.  Smith is just the first example that comes to mind of a guy coming along at an older age.  Murray was 19 when his time at Penn State came to and end.  I don't think he's got much of a shot, but I wouldn't rule it out completely.  We were all ready to write off another guy from that draft when he was 19 too.

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One of the reason there is so little depth on the Sabres and in the system is our failure to get real players from the 2nd rd for years. Between trading players and these picks we have basically zero 2nd rd players since McCabe.

Here is the history.

We had no 2nds in 2010 and 2011, but traded for Larsson (56th in 2010). Joel Edmundson was taken with our 46th pick in 2011.

We drafted McCabe in 2012

We drafted Compher (traded), Bailey and Hurley in 2013.  We also acquired and then traded Carrier (57th) to keep Ullmark in expansion.

We drafted Lemieux (traded), Cornel and Karabacek in 2014. Karabacek is no longer with the organization. We traded the 39th pick to get Cornel and Brycen Martin (74th in 2014)

We drafted Guhle in 2015. He has yet to stick in Buffalo and has been past on the depth chart by Pilut. We traded the 31st pick in the ROR trade.

We drafted Asplund in 2016.  He has 10 pts in 36 games with the Amerks.

We drafted Davidsson in 2017 and he is still in the SHL. Similar played to Asplund.

We drafted Samuelsson in 2018.  He is a freshman in college.

We have no 2nd rd pick in 2019.

Of all our 2nd rd picks since McCabe there is exactly one NHL player, Compher and we traded him away. 

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27 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

One of the reason there is so little depth on the Sabres and in the system is our failure to get real players from the 2nd rd for years. Between trading players and these picks we have basically zero 2nd rd players since McCabe.

Here is the history.

We had no 2nds in 2010 and 2011, but traded for Larsson (56th in 2010). Joel Edmundson was taken with our 46th pick in 2011.

We drafted McCabe in 2012

We drafted Compher (traded), Bailey and Hurley in 2013.  We also acquired and then traded Carrier (57th) to keep Ullmark in expansion.

We drafted Lemieux (traded), Cornel and Karabacek in 2014. Karabacek is no longer with the organization. We traded the 39th pick to get Cornel and Brycen Martin (74th in 2014)

We drafted Guhle in 2015. He has yet to stick in Buffalo and has been past on the depth chart by Pilut. We traded the 31st pick in the ROR trade.

We drafted Asplund in 2016.  He has 10 pts in 36 games with the Amerks.

We drafted Davidsson in 2017 and he is still in the SHL. Similar played to Asplund.

We drafted Samuelsson in 2018.  He is a freshman in college.

We have no 2nd rd pick in 2019.

Of all our 2nd rd picks since McCabe there is exactly one NHL player, Compher and we traded him away. 

The verdict is still out on some of those picks (especially the more recent ones. So, to claim the bolded, is not "exactly" true.

Also, we may have three 1st rd picks this year even though we don't have any 2nd's (which could change between now and then). I think I'd settle for 3 1st rd picks.

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1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

One of the reason there is so little depth on the Sabres and in the system is our failure to get real players from the 2nd rd for years. Between trading players and these picks we have basically zero 2nd rd players since McCabe.

Here is the history.

We had no 2nds in 2010 and 2011, but traded for Larsson (56th in 2010). Joel Edmundson was taken with our 46th pick in 2011.

We drafted McCabe in 2012

We drafted Compher (traded), Bailey and Hurley in 2013.  We also acquired and then traded Carrier (57th) to keep Ullmark in expansion.

We drafted Lemieux (traded), Cornel and Karabacek in 2014. Karabacek is no longer with the organization. We traded the 39th pick to get Cornel and Brycen Martin (74th in 2014)

We drafted Guhle in 2015. He has yet to stick in Buffalo and has been past on the depth chart by Pilut. We traded the 31st pick in the ROR trade.

We drafted Asplund in 2016.  He has 10 pts in 36 games with the Amerks.

We drafted Davidsson in 2017 and he is still in the SHL. Similar played to Asplund.

We drafted Samuelsson in 2018.  He is a freshman in college.

We have no 2nd rd pick in 2019.

Of all our 2nd rd picks since McCabe there is exactly one NHL player, Compher and we traded him away. 

Don’t forget about the 2014 second round picks (+ McNabb) TM traded for Fasching.  Two there.  In 2015 the Guhle pick was 51.  Murray traded our second (31 overall) to Colorado.  This spot still had the likes of Aho, Carlo, Fischer and Greenway available.  Lastly a 2016 2nd round pick for Josh Georges. 

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4 hours ago, Broken Ankles said:

Don’t forget about the 2014 second round picks (+ McNabb) TM traded for Fasching.  Two there.  In 2015 the Guhle pick was 51.  Murray traded our second (31 overall) to Colorado.  This spot still had the likes of Aho, Carlo, Fischer and Greenway available.  Lastly a 2016 2nd round pick for Josh Georges. 

Yep.  It’s a great history isn’t it.  

Our failure in the 2nd is a prime reason that we need to hold on to the two extra 1sts. 

Also Asplund, Davidsson and Guhle look 3/4 line forwards and a 3rd pair D at best.

Edited by GASabresIUFAN
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