Forwards Next Year - Status Quo or Major Overhaul?

[GASabresIUFAN]

http://buffalonews.com/2018/03/17/sabres-young-trio-takes-big-step-against-blackhawks/

 

This article reminded me how much I've grown to like Evan Rodrigues this season. 18pts in 37 games in a utility role in an amazing accomplishment. Need more speed, plug in Erod. Need someone to play center or wing. Plug in ERod. Need someone to produce on Jack's wing. ERod. Need someone to produce and help some callups produce. Add ERod.

 

He is turning into what Girgensons and Larsson should have been. It's to bad he had that wrist injury in camp. He is also signed for next year and will almost certainly be on next year's roster.

 

Also Samson has crossed the 40pt threshold with his incredible 31 pts in 33 games. Could he make 50 with 11 games left? Is there any argument that he hasn't turned the corner?

 

Nice to see Jack back on the ice, but unless the Doctors think he can't screw it up worse, I'd like to see him back on the pine until 100% healthy. I don't want to read an Jack' having ankle surgery story this off-season. Also good news that KO may be back on the ice soon.

 

So what does this all mean for next season.

 

Returnees under contract: Jack, KO* (*huge injury risk), ROR, and ERod

 

Player's under contract who may be sent packing: Girgensons, Larsson and Pommers. All three have one year left on their deals and it may be cheaper to keep them all, but none have made this team better. Pommers is likely back because somewhat productive and no one is taking his contract. Larsson and Girgensons are on inexpensive deals and might make excellent trade pieces in broader deal. If I had to guess Larsson has lost his job to ERod long-term. Lack of speed the major issue

 

NHL RFAs: Reinhart (3 for $15), Wilson (2 years 750K each), Baptiste (1 yr 650K). All three will likely be Sabres next season. Reinhart has matured, Jbot likes Wilson and Housely like Nick.

 

AHL RFAs (Who could get a look): Bailey, Griffith, Fasching, Smith, O'Regan. I suspect all 5 will be re-signed. All should get long looks in camp. All, except Smith got looks this season without much success. O'Regan has a strong pedigree to get another look and Smith looks to be on the ERod Wilson track. Bailey adds a physical presense, size and speed. All things we need, but he needs to show up ever night.

 

NHL UFAs: Nolan, Pouliot, Josefson: Only Pouliot has a outside shot at returning because of his goal production and our shortage of LWers.

 

Wildcards: The Sabres should have a series of talented new players entering the system. Mittelstadt could be signed as early as next week. If Casey signs, he'll be on the Sabres next year. Asplund and Olofsson are likey to be signed for next season from Sweden. Pu arrives (no pun intended) as soon as his season ends in the CHL. Also the Sabres are likely to land a top forward in the draft (Zadina, Svechnikov, Tkachuk or Wahlstrom). There is a very good chance that Svechnikov or Zadina would make the Sabres immediately.

 

Jbot has a major job this summer to improve this group. We need more size, speed and finish. Who doesn't? With only 7 Forwards under contract (8 if Mittelstadt signs) and 3 key RFAs it seems this roster is mostly set, but that won't be good enough. Start with the big Four (Jack, Sam, Ko, and ROR) add ERod, Wilson and Baptiste and go from there.

Edited March 18, 2018 by GASabresIUFAN

[bob_sauve28]

I think Bailey looks good. Fast, long reach and some scoring touch. I loved that line yesterday of Baptiste Bailey and Erod.

[Crusader1969]

It was only one game but how great would a consistent 3rd line of Bailey, E-Rod and Baptiste be for the next years team?

 

IF Sabres also get lucky and draft one of the top forward prospects then

 

Svechnikov - Eichel - Okposo

MIttelstadt - ROR - Samson

Baptiste - ERod - Bailey

Girgs - Larsson - Pommers

 

Nylander and Smith would have an opportunity to knock Okposo to the 4th line with a strong camp. You could even re-sign Wilson and make Girgensons even more expendable.

 

I have to say, I'm intrigued and optimistic if this is their forward lineup to start next season

RIt was only one game but how great would a consistent 3rd line of Bailey, E-Rod and Baptiste be for the next Release years team?

 

IF Sabres also get lucky and draft one of the top forward prospects then

 

Svechnikov - Eichel - Okposo

MIttelstadt - ROR - Samson

Baptiste - ERod - Bailey

Girgs - Larsson - Pommers

 

Nylander and Smith would have an opportunity to knock Okposo to the 4th line with a strong camp. You could even re-sign Wilson and make Girgensons even more expendable.

 

I have to say, I'm intrigued and optimistic if this is their forward lineup to start next season

Edited March 18, 2018 by Crusader1969

[dudacek]

I think what this team needs most upfront:

*a two-way veteran centre that can give O’Reilly some support on face offs and D zone starts.

*More goals

*Speed on the wings.

 

I think Eichel, Reinhart, KO and ROR are the only forwards guaranteed to be back (Maybe Sam or Ryan could get traded, but I don’t see it), but Wilson and Rodrigues have played themselves into the mix. Larsson, Girgensons and Pominville are under contract but when JBot says “what we have isnt working” these seem the most likely targets. None of the UFAs are back, for the same reasons.

 

We’re not going to spend big bucks in UFA or a splashy trade. We will add a piece or two that hopefully improve on Pouliot and Nolan, but most of the new faces up front will come from the group of Baptiste, Bailey, Fasching, Smith, Mittelstadt, Nylander, Olofsson and the winger we are likely to grab with our first pick.

 

It’s not promising, but the growth is going to have to happen from within.

Edited March 18, 2018 by dudacek

[GASabresIUFAN]

Crusader, this team needs more then just adding 2 talented rookies. I like both kids, but to expect them to elevate the worst offense in the NHL is asking to much. We also need some more balance in our lines. I’d like to protect Mittelstadt early as the 3rd line center.

 

However, keeping with your internal only players, how is this as an alternative?

 

Svenchnikov Jack KO

Olofsson ROR Samson

Wilson Mittelstadt Pominville

Bailey ERod Baptiste

Edited March 18, 2018 by GASabresIUFAN

[Crusader1969]

I've always thought of Mittelstadt as the 3rd line centre and Erod on Jacks wing, until this morning. I don't see pommers having a role with this team next year. I'm hoping it's Rochester or the press box for him.

 

The other big thing to keep in mind is that Getting an NHL ready LW in this draft is only 50/50 at the moment, so it's a bit early to have either Mittelstadt or Svechnikov on the roster.

 

Only guessing but I would think Nylander has a lightly greater chance of being on the opening night roster than Olofsson. An adjustment to the smaller ice rinks will play a factor.

Edited March 18, 2018 by Crusader1969

[GASabresIUFAN]

I've always thought of Mittelstadt as the 3rd line centre and Erod on Jacks wing, until this morning. I don't see pommers having a role with this team next year. I'm hoping it's Rochester or the press box for him.

 

The other big thing to keep in mind is that Getting an NHL ready LW in this draft is only 50/50 at the moment, so it's a bit early to have either Mittelstadt or Svechnikov on the roster.

 

Only guessing but I would think Nylander has a lightly greater chance of being on the opening night roster than Olofsson. An adjustment to the smaller ice rinks will play a factor.

The thing about Olofsson is that he is an around the net scorer.  That fact should make it easier to adjust to the NHL.  

[PerreaultForever]

I think Bailey looks good. Fast, long reach and some scoring touch. I loved that line yesterday of Baptiste Bailey and Erod.

I think it's fairly obvious, but the Sabres are FINALLY playing with some of that speed that Housley promised us at the beginning of the year. They look much better now and are showing signs of potentially being a much better team next year without any major overhaul. I think it is highly possible that this transition has simply taken a lot longer than we had hoped for and good things are in the near future. 

[nucci]

I think what this team needs most upfront:

*a two-way veteran centre that can give O’Reilly some support on face offs and D zone starts.

*More goals

*Speed on the wings.

 

I think Eichel, Reinhart, KO and ROR are the only forwards guaranteed to be back (Maybe Sam or Ryan could get traded, but I don’t see it), but Wilson and Rodrigues have played themselves into the mix. Larsson, Girgensons and Pominville are under contract but when JBot says “what we have isnt working” these seem the most likely targets. None of the UFAs are back, for the same reasons.

 

We’re not going to spend big bucks in UFA or a splashy trade. We will add a piece or two that hopefully improve on Pouliot and Nolan, but most of the new faces up front will come from the group of Baptiste, Bailey, Fasching, Smith, Mittelstadt, Nylander, Olofsson and the winger we are likely to grab with our first pick.

 

It’s not promising, but the growth is going to have to happen from within.

Evander Kane?

[Rasmus_]

I would say the only for sure bets:  Eichel, O'Reilly, Reinhart, Okposo (no one is taking this $$), Pominville (no one is taking this $$) and Rodrigues are locks with the forward group.  The rest is debatable.  The only other name I see possibly moving is if someone really swings for the fences with O'Reilly.  Otherwise we'll have different options at other positions.  

[GASabresIUFAN]

I think what this team needs most upfront:

*a two-way veteran centre that can give O’Reilly some support on face offs and D zone starts.

*More goals

*Speed on the wings.

I think Eichel, Reinhart, KO and ROR are the only forwards guaranteed to be back (Maybe Sam or Ryan could get traded, but I don’t see it), but Wilson and Rodrigues have played themselves into the mix. Larsson, Girgensons and Pominville are under contract but when JBot says “what we have isnt working” these seem the most likely targets. None of the UFAs are back, for the same reasons.

We’re not going to spend big bucks in UFA or a splashy trade. We will add a piece or two that hopefully improve on Pouliot and Nolan, but most of the new faces up front will come from the group of Baptiste, Bailey, Fasching, Smith, Mittelstadt, Nylander, Olofsson and the winger we are likely to grab with our first pick.

It’s not promising, but the growth is going to have to happen from within.

I agree that when Jbot said what we have isn’t working he was looking at Larsson and Girgensons, plus his lousy bottom 6 acquisitions like Josefson and Nolan. I have zero problem with moving on from these guys. Pouliot we have actually received reasonable value for our contract ($1.15 for 13 goals is a steal in cap terms), but he isn’t a great fit for the system.

 

The biggest issue is how much growth can we really get from just playing internal players. We are on pace to score about 199 goals again. Most playoff teams are scoring 250 or more GF. That’s 25% more output from this group. I don’t see it. I ran some numbers and taking into account replacing Kane’s, Pouliot’s, Z and Larsson’s numbers and growth of Jack and Sam, I see about 230 potential and that isn’t close to good enough.

 

Here are my numbers

ROR 22, Sam 25, Jack 35, KO 15, Pommers, Wilson and Erod 10 each plus Svechnikov and Mittelstadt 15 each. That 157 from the top 9 forwards. Add 15 from the 4th line and 10 from callups and you get to 182. Hoepfully the D will be better. So far this season 18 goals from our D. Even if that number doubled next year to 36, we are only at 218 goals next season. 10% improvement, but not playoff contention.

[dudacek]

Yep, even if the big four combine for 100 next year (they have 70 right now) we still need an unlikely jump from the next five skaters.

Right now it’s Pouliot 13, Pominville 12, Girgensons 7, Wilson 6, Rodrigues 6

What we really need is 20 (Jacks new winger), 15, 15, 12 and 10 from the rest of our top nine.

 

Could that be Olofsson/Mittelstadt, Baptiste/Bailey, Nylander/first pick, Pominville/Wilson and Girgensons/Rodrigues?

Maybe, but I wouldn’t count on it.

Edited March 19, 2018 by dudacek

[Mustache of God]

Is it safe to assume we're buying out Moulson over the off-season or are we going to keep him buried/loaned in the AHL?

[Drunkard]

Is it safe to assume we're buying out Moulson over the off-season or are we going to keep him buried/loaned in the AHL?

Personally, I'd just eat the contracts of Moulson and Pominville next season. It's not like we're going to go crazy in free agency this offseason anyway so their cap hits aren't going to hurt too badly and after next season we'll be done with both rather than buying them out and having their cap hits extend into the 2019-2020 season.

[dudacek]

What are the thoughts on bringing in Tyler Bozak as a 3rd line centre next year?

I’m not sure what the market is and I wouldn’t invest a ton or term, but he can win face offs and play the second unit PP.

[GASabresIUFAN]

What are the thoughts on bringing in Tyler Bozak as a 3rd line centre next year?

I’m not sure what the market is and I wouldn’t invest a ton or term, but he can win face offs and play the second unit PP.

Haven’t we had our fill of over 30 declining forwards? How does he help our goal scoring problem?

[dudacek]

Haven’t we had our fill of over 30 declining forwards? How does he help our goal scoring problem?

To the first question yes, but.

To the second, his 10 to 15 goals and 25 to 30 assists are a helluva lot better than the 5 goals and 10 assists Johan Larsson gives us from the third-line centre slot.

 

I look at it as upgrade on Josefson and Pouliot as our value free agent signing, assuming there’s not a huge demand for his services; I really don’t see him getting term and $ from anyone in the current climate.

I’d rather target a guy like Boone Jenner, but I’m not sure we have the assets to acquire someone like that or the will to spend them.

 

What is your preferred option for the 3rd line Centre slot?

Rodrigues has improved, but I’m not sure he’s the answer. Rather he pushed past someone than got the job handed to him.

Edited March 19, 2018 by dudacek

[GASabresIUFAN]

To the first question yes, but.

To the second, his 10 to 15 goals and 25 to 30 assists are a helluva lot better than the 5 goals and 10 assists Johan Larsson gives us from the third-line centre slot.

 

I look at it as upgrade on Josefson and Pouliot as our value free agent signing, assuming there’s not a huge demand for his services; I really don’t see him getting term and $ from anyone in the current climate.

I’d rather target a guy like Boone Jenner, but I’m not sure we have the assets to acquire someone like that or the will to spend them.

 

What is your preferred option for the 3rd line Centre slot?

Rodrigues has improved, but I’m not sure he’s the answer. Rather he pushed past someone than got the job handed to him.

My preferred person in that slot is Mittelstadt.  Pair him up with WIlson and Pommers and let ERod center for Bailey and Baptiste as a crazy fast energy 4th line and roll 4 lines.

[Weave]

Unless we go outside the organization for additional middle 6 wingers, I want to see Mittlestadt at wing next season.  At least to start.

 

And I really don't need to see Erod starting the season in the opening lineup.  Let's hope we've upgraded the lineup enough by then that we can push him into the AAAA role he should have.

[dudacek]

I’d feel better if Jack wasn’t our second best defensive centre and I want him getting o-zone starts.

 

Im with Weave on starting Casey on the wing to help him transition.

I suspect ERod and Casey would get eaten alive in our zone by a lot of vets.

O’Reilly needs some help.

 

For all Larssons limitations, he’s an adequate matchup guy at least compared to Evan, and Casey I suspect will look a lot like first-year Jack defensively.

 

Modern Jack has improved, but he’s still not great.

Edited March 19, 2018 by dudacek

[North Buffalo]

I’d feel better if Jack wasn’t our second best defensive centre and I want him getting o-zone starts.

Im with Weave on starting Casey on the wing to help him transition.

I suspect ERod and Casey would get eaten alive in our zone by a lot of vets.

O’Reilly needs some help.

For all Larssons limitations, he’s an adequate matchup guy at least compared to Evan, and Casey I suspect will look a lot like first-year Jack defensively.

Modern Jack has improved, but he’s still not great.

As posted on game day. Erod with Baptiste and Bailey as an energy line with chemistry from AHL, ROR line as it is with Wilson or OK, then Jack with Casey our Lord and Savior with one of the top stud wingers. Larrson Girgenson and Wilson or Joefeson as the checking/penalty kill line. It could work and if say Oloffson is ready could be an injury call up.

[dudacek]

I’m reading expectations that Bozak will get $4 to $4.5 over four years - Nick Bonino money.

If so, count me out.

[GASabresIUFAN]

I’m reading expectations that Bozak will get $4 to $4.5 over four years - Nick Bonino money.

If so, count me out.

Another Moulson contract in the making.

[pi2000]

I'm afraid Okposo could be the next Moulson.   

 

He's been downright awful, not just because he's not scoring, but he's a huge liability defensively.... his TR+/- is off the charts bad at -14.   On a bad team that means he's an anchor... he's a huge part of the problem.

[Sabre fan]

I'm afraid Okposo could be the next Moulson.   

 

He's been downright awful, not just because he's not scoring, but he's a huge liability defensively.... his TR+/- is off the charts bad at -14.   On a bad team that means he's an anchor... he's a huge part of the problem.

both players had huge years playing with Johnny T on the island. Maybe we can sign Tavares this summer and he can re-ignite Okposo's career. Otheriwse, he is done