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ROR, what is happening?


StuckinFL

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I have come to a conclusion and I am not coming off of it...ROR is a 'good' player at best, and not a player that is worth $7.5 million dollars.

 

-Since his first year with the Sabres, the only good stretch of games he has played were in the World cup. He wasn't great last year and so far (in a small sample size) not this year.

-His scoring 20 and 21 goal seasons aren't impressive on a bad team. He got a lot of PP time and even Ennis and Hodgson scored over 20 when they were the "top guy" on a bad team. (He really is only a reliable 15-18 goal guy)

-His D play is good at best.  Sure he is great on faceoffs, but most of last year..and ALL of this year he has been close to a turnover machine.  If not putting it right on the oppositions stick, at least making bad decisions that lead to turnovers.

-People can tell me all day long he isn't slow..that he as 'decent' skating speed, but I don't see it.  As the game gets faster, he is having trouble keeping up at times.  In the NHL of 2014 or 2015 he was better than in the NHL of 2017.

-He just doesn't seem to be able to control the game on any level. I know he isn't a superstar, but as others have said...does he control the puck and move it well coming up the ice? If he is not that type of player, when he gets the puck in the transition game does he make great (or even good) passes to keep the rush going?  How often does he go into the corner or along the boards and take the puck away from someone else?  Does he break up a lot of plays in the neutral zone?  I see him do those things OCCASIONALLY, but not any more than what I would consider making him 'above average' at best..but probably average.

 

 

Overall, I think he is a 'good' 3rd line center. Anything more than that (maybe because of his salary) and we are expecting too much.  If we EXPECT from him what he really IS (15-18 goal guy, great on faceoffs, good (but not great) Defensive forward), then there won't be a problem.  But, there IS a problem because in a Salary Cap league, it is hard to pay a guy $7.5 million a year who is giving you that.

 

He would fit nicely on a team making $5.5 million per year being a very good 2nd line center...with time penalty killing and on the SECOND PP unit.

Edited by mjd1001
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What 3rd line center puts up 50+ points every year? 

A 3rd line center that gets 1st line minutes.

 

As I said in my post...most players with decent offensive ability will put up a lot more points/goals when given more minutes.  When Ennis and Hodgson were on this team and given good minutes, they led the team in goals or points.  Add to that the fact that ROR gets a LOT of Powerplay time, and I would expect those extra points.

 

Over the last couple of years, over 40% of his points come on the PowerPlay.  That is well above what most of the top players get. 

Edited by mjd1001
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Yeah...that's not how that works. 

I'm not sure what you mean..thats not how it works?  Give any 3rd line center in the league first line minutes, and they are going to put up more points.

 

If O'Reilly gets even 18 minutes per game (still probably more than a typical 3rd line center) and he is on the PP but on the second unit (where his talent probably says he belongs) and you are getting 15 goals and 25 - 30 assists out of him for the season.  Not even close to being worth $7.5 million for a guy who still makes crucial mistakes regarding giveaways pretty often.

Edited by mjd1001
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It's my opinion that those who think Toews is over rated, agree that ROR isn't worth the money or isnt that great. Maybe different valuations on 2 way play? Every team needs that consistent shutdown center. O'Reilly is one of the top players in the league in the regard, that's why he made team Canada.

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I was hoping ROR would be our next Drury, or something close. He had moments last season where he brought the team to life with his effort. I hope there's more of that left in him, especially if he's still here when the playoffs are in the picture.

To be fair to O'Reilly, he is only 26. Drury played 4 years of college, played on the Avalanche when they were stupid good, and didn't land in Buffalo until he was well seasoned at 27. They couldn't possibly have had more different career paths.

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To be fair to O'Reilly, he is only 26. Drury played 4 years of college, played on the Avalanche when they were stupid good, and didn't land in Buffalo until he was well seasoned at 27. They couldn't possibly have had more different career paths.

He's a 10 year veteran. His play is unacceptable
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Someone else did the work on hfboards, but they outlined how ROR has consistently started slow out of the gate. he's only had 2 or 3 seasons where his first ten games showed the production he finished the year with. His second-last year in Colorado and his first year here were extreme examples. I'm hoping this is just some of that combined with the whirlwind changes and sketchy linemates to start. 

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He's getting less ice time (just above 19 minutes a game).  That is still close to the team lead for forwards, but more than 2 minutes less per game than last year.  That should help him to not be worn down at all by the end of the season.  BTW, it looks like Eichel is averaging about 20 minutes of ice time per game under Housley...which is the team lead and slightly more than last year.

 

As far as ROR, it is only through 5 games, but some things to look at this year:

 

-Slightly less ice time (as noted above)

-He has taken 2.6 shots per game this year.   (He had 2.62 last year, so about the same)

-He has more PP time on ice per game this year than last year (Sabres are averaging more power plays this year so far)

-He is winning 66% of his faceoffs this year (He was at 58% last year)

 

Very small sample size, it is really hard to gain anything out of analyzing stats until I think about game 20.

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