2017-18 lineup prediction (the Original Lineup Thread)

[GASabresIUFAN]

https://hockey-graphs.com/2015/01/15/the-relationship-between-corsi-and-winning-faceoffs/

[TrueBlueGED]

The articles I have read show that a higher FO% equates to about a 20% increase in Corsi.  Considering we were one of the worst Corsi team and all our centers outside ROR were under 50% (Jack was under 40%).  It does follow that to improve Corsi it is in our interest to improve our FO%.  

 

There will always be other factors that effect the results, but winning FO% is a good place to start.  

 

FYI, a reduction of 2 minutes per game in ROR PT equates to 164 minutes of saved wear and tear or about 8 games of play at 20 minutes per game (or 10% of the season).  

 

What in the world does this even mean? How much higher? I'm assuming this is the article you're referring to.

 

The article says "The R-squared value indicates that a team’s faceoff percentage explains about twenty percent of the team’s Corsi percentage." That is incredibly different from what you posted. Incomprehensibly different.

 

Also, correlation/causation arguments abound with faceoffs, as do a whole host of other contextual factors which may be influencing the basic statistical relationship here. A couple of other views on faceoffs and their overall importance:

http://bluesteam.hockey/how-important-are-faceoffs/

https://www.si.com/nhl/2017/03/02/illustrated-review-importance-nhl-faceoff

 

TLDR: You'd like to win more than you lose, and you'd rather win an important one than lose it...but building roster decisions around draws is lunacy.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Your focused only on the faceoffs, I'm using faceoffs as an entry point to help the PK and save wear and tear on ROR.  

 

We are going to have to pay Larsson about 900K or more.   For about $1 mill more we can get similar production in a 4th line role, a better penalty killer, a better FO guy, a vet who has significant playoff experience and whose presence will help give ROR more rest.  Is that worth it? I think so.  

 

I understand the argument that Larsson can grow into that role.  I think Larry is what he is going to be at this point.

[dudacek]

Adding Jay Beagle or someone like him is not going to mean less ice time for ROR.

Give a shift to Sam, a shift to Larry and a shift to Jack each game and we're fine.

 

Your basically putting a lot of emphasis on something that is only an issue for the second unit PK faceoffs. Otherwise, why would I choose Jay Beagle to take a crucial face off when I have Ryan O'Reilly? Especially in the O zone?

[ubkev]

I sure am seeing Tyler Ennis penciled into a whole lot of people's top 6's in this thread. Makes me want to stab myself in both eyes! Christ! Matt Moulson is better. Matt Moulson!

 

If Ennis is a Sabre next year, my prediction for his point total is 18.

[DarthEbriate]

No one seems to be taking into account that players typically improve in faceoff percentage as they get experience. Sure, Larsson may top out at 50%, but average for the entire league is 50% #Hammymath.

Eichel, Reinhart, Larsson -- they'll all improve at faceoffs. Then you'll trust them for the occasional important faceoff.

 

I sure am seeing Tyler Ennis penciled into a whole lot of people's top 6's in this thread. Makes me want to stab myself in both eyes! Christ! Matt Moulson is better. Matt ###### Moulson!

If Ennis is a Sabre next year, my prediction for his point total is 18.

That'd be an improvement from this year.

I don't see him in our top 6 either.

He finally looked decent in the last 10 games of the season... Looks like he had about 15 min/game (I'm not doing the exact math), including PP time. 1 goal, 2 assists in those ten games. That's still not good enough to make it into next season's top 6 (all players being healthy) unless the new GM makes a lot of roster swaps.

[Samson's Flow]

Feel like there have been a lot of studies on how faceoffs mean nothing anyways

they are basically statistically insignificant. The analytics crowd look at them the same way as they look at Wins for a starting pitcher in Baseball. They don't drive win probability enough to be meaningful and are more the product of randomness.

Close enough to nothing that it's not worth anywhere near all the fuss over them. You'd like to win more than you lose, and you'd rather win a particular draw than lose it....but man, the way they get talked about, you'd swear they were goals or something.

Exactly. :thumbsup:

[LGR4GM]

The first sentence of this post cannot possibly be right.

 

#Hammymath.

 

Try it! It's easy and fun!

Yes, yes yes yes yes. 

[Samson's Flow]

The articles I have read show that a higher FO% equates to about a 20% increase in Corsi.  Considering we were one of the worst Corsi team and all our centers outside ROR were under 50% (Jack was under 40%).  It does follow that to improve Corsi it is in our interest to improve our FO%.  

 

There will always be other factors that effect the results, but winning FO% is a good place to start.  

 

FYI, a reduction of 2 minutes per game in ROR PT equates to 164 minutes of saved wear and tear or about 8 games of play at 20 minutes per game (or 10% of the season).  

Unfortunately the traditional managers and GM's in the NHL value faceoffs and FO% like you seem to, and as such a guy like Beagle or Dominic Moore get $1MM+ more per year compared to equally skilled players like the Larsson's of the world. My argument is that paying the extra money isn't worth it just for FO% when you are still getting a 20-25pt player.

I sure am seeing Tyler Ennis penciled into a whole lot of people's top 6's in this thread. Makes me want to stab myself in both eyes! Christ! Matt Moulson is better. Matt ###### Moulson!

 

If Ennis is a Sabre next year, my prediction for his point total is 18.

In my roster i'd much rather roll the dice with Baptiste/Bailey/Carrier types and completely exclude Ennis and Moulson from the roster. Short term pains for long term gains.

Yes, yes yes yes yes. 

#Swoon  :wub:

[LGR4GM]

Unfortunately the traditional managers and GM's in the NHL value faceoffs and FO% like you seem to, and as such a guy like Beagle or Dominic Moore get $1MM+ more per year compared to equally skilled players like the Larsson's of the world. My argument is that paying the extra money isn't worth it just for FO% when you are still getting a 20-25pt player.

In my roster i'd much rather roll the dice with Baptiste/Bailey/Carrier types and completely exclude Ennis and Moulson from the roster. Short term pains for long term gains.

#Swoon  :wub:

 

[GASabresIUFAN]

Y'all talk about Larsson as he is some 50pt butterfly ready to emerge from his cocoon. He was on pace last season while playing 3rd center to score 25 points. Now if we all get our wish with Sam as the 3rd center, how much is Larsson going to score as the 4th center assuming he can beat out the bigger and fast Girgensons for the job?

 

So y'all would rather pony up $1 mill for a guy that doesn't win as many draws, doesn't kill penalties overly well and scores at the same level, then a playoff veteran who scores just as well and does everything else better for only $1 more simply because he's younger?

 

As to the comment that we are all putting Ennis in the top 6, none of us want him there, but realize that if he is healthy (a big if) and isn't lost to expansion, we need to play him somewhere. At his best he is a top 6 forward and at his worst he makes me miss CoHo. The bottom line with Ennis is that if he doesn't showed marked improvement this coming season, he'll be bought out at season's end. The problem with Ennis is that he isn't in any way shape or form a grinder. Playing him in the bottom 6 is just of waste of a roster spot. Guys like Carrier and Foligno are much better for that kind of role. Therefore if we are going to get any production from this big contract player he has to play in the top 6. Admittedly it's a long shot. I fear the concussions have turned him into Tim Connolly Two, which is a sad waste of two very talented players.

[WildCard]

You talk about Beagle like he's Kessler :lol:

 

Best part? Beagle's possession starts are absolute garbage, throughout his career. Good things those faceoffs are really helping him out

[LGR4GM]

Y'all talk about Larsson as he is some 50pt butterfly ready to emerge from his cocoon. He was on pace last season while playing 3rd center to score 25 points. Now if we all get our wish with Sam as the 3rd center, how much is Larsson going to score as the 4th center assuming he can beat out the bigger and fast Girgensons for the job?

 

So y'all would rather pony up $1 mill for a guy that doesn't win as many draws, doesn't kill penalties overly well and scores at the same level, then a playoff veteran who scores just as well and does everything else better for only $1 more simply because he's younger?

 

As to the comment that we are all putting Ennis in the top 6, none of us want him there, but realize that if he is healthy (a big if) and isn't lost to expansion, we need to play him somewhere. At his best he is a top 6 forward and at his worst he makes me miss CoHo. The bottom line with Ennis is that if he doesn't showed marked improvement this coming season, he'll be bought out at season's end. The problem with Ennis is that he isn't in any way shape or form a grinder. Playing him in the bottom 6 is just of waste of a roster spot. Guys like Carrier and Foligno are much better for that kind of role. Therefore if we are going to get any production from this big contract player he has to play in the top 6. Admittedly it's a long shot. I fear the concussions have turned him into Tim Connolly Two, which is a sad waste of two very talented players.

yes. I am not paying for a guy on the wrong side of thirty so I can win 1 extra draw a game. 

You talk about Beagle like he's Kessler :lol:

 

Best part? Beagle's possession starts are absolute garbage, throughout his career. Good things those faceoffs are really helping him out

Please what are his possession stats compared to Johan?

[WildCard]

yes. I am not paying for a guy on the wrong side of thirty so I can win 1 extra draw a game. 

Please what are his possession stats compared to Johan?

To be fair they're both garbage

 

http://www.hockey-reference.com/players/l/larssjo02.html

http://www.hockey-reference.com/players/b/beaglja01.html

 

That's a 30s research effort though. I'm sure there's a better way to compare them than to just look at their CF%

Edited April 27, 2017 by WildCard

[LGR4GM]

So on a team, Johan Larsson's corsi was 43.3, On WASHINGTON Jay Beagles was 39.4.... yea let me go right out and pony up big money for him and his faceoff percentage. 

[WildCard]

So on a ###### team, Johan Larsson's corsi was 43.3, On WASHINGTON Jay Beagles was 39.4.... yea let me go right out and pony up big money for him and his faceoff percentage. 

Where are you seeing those numbers?

[LGR4GM]

Where are you seeing those numbers?

Click on advanced. That is CORSI ALL %

[Sabre fan]

absolutely no interest in Beagle...truth is we cannot afford to spend big on a free agent for a 4th line center and need to develop one of our own to fill that spot...

[GASabresIUFAN]

Y'all are focused on a name, but not the concept. It's not about the specific player. I don't care if we get Beagle or Boyle or any of a number of players. I'm trying to find someone who can win some faceoffs, improve the PK, hopefully give ROR some rest by limiting his PK minutes and maybe add a playoff experienced veteran to a lockeroom sadly lacking that experience once Gionta and Gorges are gone. Does Larsson fit this description?

[LGR4GM]

Y'all are focused on a name, but not the concept. It's not about the specific player. I don't care if we get Beagle or Boyle or any of a number of players. I'm trying to find someone who can win some faceoffs, improve the PK, hopefully give ROR some rest by limiting his PK minutes and maybe add a playoff experienced veteran to a lockeroom sadly lacking that experience once Gionta and Gorges are gone. Does Larsson fit this description?

David Legwand was that guy, but we stupidly didn't re-sign him. 

[WildCard]

These guys are a dime a dozen and aren't even all that important to your teams success. Girgs can be this guy, Larsson can be this guy, etc. I don't need to get the concept of a 3rd line player who goes over 50% on FOs and can play a PK. Wanna know why our PK sucked? We stopped attacking at the blue line and let people walk in. I have absolutely no issue with our forwards on the PK. 

[LGR4GM]

These guys are a dime a dozen and aren't even all that important to your teams success. Girgs can be this guy, Larsson can be this guy, etc. I don't need to get the concept of a 3rd line player who goes over 50% on FOs and can play a PK. Wanna know why our PK sucked? We stopped attacking at the blue line and let people walk in. I have absolutely no issue with our forwards on the PK. 

We had to do that WC, that way we could form our box and push everything to the outside! GOSH!!! WHY WEREN"T YOU PAYING ATTENTION WHEN DAN EXPLAINED IT ON 172 WHITEBOARDS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

 

;)

[WildCard]

We had to do that WC, that way we could form our box and push everything to the outside! GOSH!!! WHY WEREN"T YOU PAYING ATTENTION WHEN DAN EXPLAINED IT ON 172 WHITEBOARDS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

 

;)

I really gotta stop bitching about DD now that he's gone :lol: :lol:

[LGR4GM]

I really gotta stop bitching about DD now that he's gone :lol: :lol:

172 WHITEBOARDS!!! It is like virtual reality with WHITEBOARDS!!!

[shrader]

Antipin has to know that nothing is guaranteed.  I expect they promised his agent that he'd start the year in the NHL, and he'll probably get a one-way contract (ie same salary whether it's NHL or AHL), but I doubt they promised, or he expects, guaranteed NHL ice time.

 

He and his agent probably looked at the Sabres, saw plenty of available ice time on D, good facilities, a free-spending owner, a good goalie and good forwards and figured it was a promising situation for him.

 

I'm too lazy to look up his age, but if he's getting an entry level contract, it's automatically two way.