Robin Lehner: the man, the myth

[dudacek]

As the Sabres continue to flounder and the natives get increasingly restless, two narratives surface around Robin Lehner:

 

1) He's not very good

 

This is always going to be in the eye of the beholder, but statistically, he's been better than average.

Among goalies who have played at least 20 games, he's 14th in GAA and 8th in SP.

 

For the fancy-stat lovers, he's eighth in something called Goals Saved Above Average, which basically measures how well a goalie does at keeping his team in games.

He's also 8th in Goals Against Percentage, 8th in Quality Start Percentage and has had just two Really Bad Starts (yes, this is a statistic)

 

(Explanations here: http://www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/NHL_2017_goalies.html)

 

2) Tim Murray gave up way too much for him

 

There are two ways of looking at this:

Looking at the prices paid in recent years for touted young/emerging goalies:

 

 

• Carey Price — 5th pick
• Semyon Varlamov — 11th pick plus a 2nd-rounder
• Corey Schnieder — 9th pick
• Jacob Markstrom — with Shawn Matthias for Roberto Luongo
• Andrei Vasilevsky — 19th pick
• Frederik Andersen — 30th pick, plus 2017 2nd-rounder
• Tuuka Rask — Andrew Raycroft (Rask was picked 21st overall)
• Robin Lehner — with David Legwand for 21st pick
• Ilya Samsonov — 22nd pick
• Malcolm Subban — 24th pick
• Martin Jones — 29th pick and Sean Kuraly
• Jonathan Bernier — 38th pick, Frattin and Scrivens
• Ben Bishop — Corey Conacher and a 4th (Otttawa got him from the Blues for the 47th pick)
• Oskar Dansk — 31st pick
• Mason McDonald 34th pick
• Jake Allen — 34th pick
• Zach Fucale — 36th pick
• Thatcher Demko — 36th pick
• Alex Nedeljkovic — 37th pick
• Magnus Hellberg — 38th pick
• John Gibson — 39th pick
• Sergei Bobrovsky — 45th pick, plus two 4th-rounders

 

 

 

Looking at the performances of goalies recently on the market relative to their cost:

 

 

• Fredrik Andersen .924 SV%, 2.52 GAA (1st, 2nd)
• Robin Lehner .921 SV%, 2.51 GAA (1st)
• Chad Johnson .920 SV% 2.34 GAA (UFA)
• Cam Talbot .919 SV% 2.45 GAA (2nd, 3rd)
• Martin Jones .919 SV% 2.11 GAA (1st)
• James Reimer 915 SV% 2.60 GAA (UFA)
• Ryan Miller .909 SV% 2.81 GAA (UFA)
• Antii Niemi .908 SV% 3.00 GAA (UFA*)
• Jaro Halak .904 SV% 3.23 GAA (Waivers)
• Jonathan Bernier .897 SV% 3.09 GAA (Conditional pick)
• Brian Elliott .893 SV% 3.01 GAA (2nd, 3rd)
• Jhonas Enroth .872 SV% 3.94 GAA (UFA)
• Michal Neuvirth .859 SV% 3.54 GAA (UFA)
• Eddie Lack .856 SV% 3.80 GAA (3rd)
• Anders Lindback out of the NHL (UFA)

 

 

 

My conclusions:

• He's been an above-average to good NHL starter based on the numbers
• We paid a premium for him, but not an exorbitant one: going rate for a goalie of his profile appears to be a late 1st to early 2nd
• He's performing as well as any other goalie available, and significantly better than all but four of them. Jones and Andersen are posting similar numbers at a similar price, Talbot and Johnson are performing as well at a cheaper price.

 

Thoughts?

Edited January 2, 2017 by dudacek

[Randall Flagg]

His numbers are fine. Watching him constantly leaves me worried, I don't really have words to describe exactly why. He doesn't LOOK like a good goalie to me. I don't really care, though. My view is that there are around 5 elite goalies any given year, 5 very very good ones, 15 interchangeable goalies that would look the same on any of those 15 teams, and then 5 horrible situations in net. I have Lehner in the 15 range, and he could very well develop into the class above that. In the 15 range, I'm worried about 40 other things before the goalie. 

[Sabres Fan in NS]

While our goalies have had some problems, but most of them (SO) can be improved upon.

 

The biggest problem with the current Sabres is the same problem that has been with recent teams ... the lack of scoring.

 

I voted the he can be our goalie when we contend and I believe it to be true.

[Sabel79]

If the skaters on this team knew which end of the stick they should be holding in the offensive zone goaltending would not even be discussed. IMO.

[Randall Flagg]

The lack of scoring actually does make the optics of our goaltending worse. When I watch other games I think that the goalies are bad too, just like ours - and then I realize that every game, we're comparing our goalie to our opponent's goalie, and they are allowing 1 goal or 0 goals for half of our games, and only 2 for many others. That's not a fair comparison and definitely does its part to make Lehner look worse than he actually is. That's not normal, it's a product of a historically terrible offense that we have.

[dudacek]

I'm going to suggest Lehner's numbers have been inflated by Bylsma's system in that it minimizes the number of one-on-one looks shooters get. He is good at going cross-crease but mostly succeeds by being a big body. When shooters get time, they can find holes.

 

I'm also going to suggest that Lehner's play has been hurt by Bylsma's system in that it's inability to score has ratcheted up the pressure he puts on himself to win. It results in aggressive overcommitment. He's a skilled guy, but - particularly in the recent stretch - doesn't appear to be mentally in the zone even when he is making the saves. He looks desperate. I want ice, not fire.

Edited January 2, 2017 by dudacek

[Sabres Fan in NS]

No love for him from MODO ...  :w00t:

[TrueBlueGED]

I'm going to suggest Lehner's numbers have been inflated by Bylsma's system in that it minimizes the number of one-on-one looks shooters get. He is good at going cross-crease but mostly succeeds by being a big body. When shooters get time, they can find holes.

 

I'm also going to suggest that Lehner's play has been hurt by Bylsma's system in that it's inability to score has ratcheted up the pressure he puts on himself to win. It results in aggressive overcommitment. He's a skilled guy, but - particularly in the recent stretch - doesn't appear to be mentally in the zone even when he is making the saves. He looks desperate. I want ice, not fire.

There's actually a stat that adjusts "normal" statistics for quality of shots faced, and Lehner was near the bottom of the league amongst starters last I looked. I'll try to remember to double check this evening.

[Thorner]

His numbers are fine. Watching him constantly leaves me worried, I don't really have words to describe exactly why. He doesn't LOOK like a good goalie to me. I don't really care, though. My view is that there are around 5 elite goalies any given year, 5 very very good ones, 15 interchangeable goalies that would look the same on any of those 15 teams, and then 5 horrible situations in net. I have Lehner in the 15 range, and he could very well develop into the class above that. In the 15 range, I'm worried about 40 other things before the goalie.

 

Succinct. The hubbub over giving up a late first for Lehner is overblown to me. It's Murray's goaltending evaluation that's under the microscope here, not the fact that he gave up the pick, in general.

 

I think Lehner is about where you place him. And to this point I feel like goalies are trending towards become the running backs of the NHL, if they aren't already there.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

How did Peppy vote twice?

[Jsixspd]

I went with 4.   His hire isn't a disaster, but we could have done better and should have waited for a better goalie to appear on the market.   He's kind of mid-tier as goalies go - he'll never be elite.  His price was too high for what he delivers.  And his shootout play is terrible, to say the least.  

Edited January 2, 2017 by Jsixspd

[Beer]

He lets in too many softies, his rebound control is suspect and he can't make a save in the SO to save his life. Other than that he's a serviceable goalie in the NHL. Due to our roster, we need a goal to steal games and he's just not capable IMO.

Edited January 2, 2017 by Beer

[North Buffalo]

He absolutely sucks in shootouts and in the current NHL point structure that is simply a non-starter for a team with playoff aspirations.

Agreed, not bas otherwise. Problem is I think all he really needs is a good goalie coach and that is on Murray. Reminds me of Bishop right before light bulb went on. He has potential but lets in too many critical head scratchers. Again... because the big if is can he be properly coached.... Murray paid too much. Still luv his passion and hope he can figure it out.

[Bmwolf21]

I don't get to see him much - lack of national games, and I don't have center ice package - but when I see him and the goals he allows I feel like he's a big body who plays "small".

[TrueBlueGED]

There's actually a stat that adjusts "normal" statistics for quality of shots faced, and Lehner was near the bottom of the league amongst starters last I looked. I'll try to remember to double check this evening.

 

Circling back, the stat I was thinking of is indeed Goals Saved Above Average. I must not have recognized it because of Dudacek's crappy description :nana:

 

Of goalies with at least 840 even strength minutes played (Why 840? Because it was the first number I got to that gave me 30 goalies), Lehner is 21st in GSAA, sandwiched between Ward and Miller. Using the same sample, more stats that maybe like 2 other people here will know what they are:

 

Expected Fenwick SV%: 95.04, 2nd (!!!!)

Actual Fenwick SV%: 94.12, 13th 

Adjusted Fenwick SV%: -.12, 21st ( :sick: )

Expected goals against: 25th ( :sick: )

 

Optimistic interpretation: He's been unlucky, and the numbers will rebound as the season drags on.

Pessimistic interpretation: He's performing worse than he should be given what the team allows. 

 

My interpretation (based on more than just numbers you hosers): He's pretty average, though probably close to worth what he was acquired for in a pure paper sense; keep in mind that in addition to the prices for other goalies Dudacek posted, the expectation for your average late-1st is a 3rd liner...but I'd personally much rather have the lottery ticket for higher potential at another position. I stand by an observation I made earlier in the season that he's just remarkably unspectacular in every way. Certainly not an example of great asset management, but also not the disaster some decry it as.

 

Edit: here, have a picture

Edited January 3, 2017 by TrueBlueGED

[WildCard]

Stats? Check

 

Fancy stats? Check

 

Sound argument? Check

 

But really, the post nails it for the caption on your edit. Yes thank you, I would like a picture. Well done

[matter2003]

There's actually a stat that adjusts "normal" statistics for quality of shots faced, and Lehner was near the bottom of the league amongst starters last I looked. I'll try to remember to double check this evening.

He's 12th according to GSAA which normalizes thing across the league based on quality of chances against:

 

http://www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/NHL_2017_goalies.html

[TrueBlueGED]

He's 12th according to GSAA which normalizes thing across the league based on quality of chances against:

 

http://www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/NHL_2017_goalies.html

 

Pretty sure hockey-reference uses GSAA in all situations, whereas I was citing even strength data.

[dudacek]

Pretty sure hockey-reference uses GSAA in all situations, whereas I was citing even strength data.

I was going to ask, because your numbers didn't seem to match the link I posted.

Is that because the Sabres allow a sick number of chances while short-handed? Because their PK is so lousy you'd think Lehner would look better at even strength, not worse.

[Huckleberry]

He is the least of our worries, and I think he can be our goalie when we contend.

Price being paid seemed normal to me for a #1 goalie.   

[Claude Balls]

Problem is, with the defense he has in front of him and the lack of scoring by the offense, he has not been good enough to bail this team out. If the Sabres bolster the defense and start to put the puck in the net, Lehner will win more than he loses. Elite goalies can cover up a lot of holes on a team. So until Murray beefs up the defense and brings in a coach that knows how to utilize a young and talented team, I don't see much changing and Lehner is gonna look worse than he is because of it. I just wonder how many more games before Lehner snaps and throttles someone.

[rjones71]

If he is going to allow 4 to 5 goals a game and this team can only score 1 or 2, he isn't going to look good to anyone is he.

[Marvelo]

It's a given that Robin will let in one bad goal a game and he will lose the shootout. To a mediocre team, what good is that? 

 

I remember what a goal-challenged team the Sabres were when Hasek was goalie. They NEEDED him to perform at top level just to stay in games.

 

Our offense hasn't changed much since then and we still need a savior in goal. Problem is, even if you get to the top levels, a great goalie is not going to be enough.

[nfreeman]

I voted "least of our problems."

 

I see him as a pretty solid NHL starter right now and still with substantial upside. 

 

It's his 1st full season as a starter, and he plays with the pressure of pretty much knowing that his team isn't going to score until the 2nd period is mostly over.

 

I kinda feel like the shootout thing will self-correct over time, although I also think it's in his head now and might not improve for a while.

 

They just have quite a few more pressing issues.

[PromoTheRobot]

He overplays the puck. Mostly not an issue but he often takes himself out of position. That is bad form.