Re-sign Gionta?

[7+6=13]

I respect so many of you and I've learned a lot from reading you.  This one has me confused.  My sons and I watch every game and Gionta is the player we get most frustrated with.  I get that his 13 points at this point in the year are more than most of us expected but he just makes so many mistakes IMO.  His effort this year is respectable but because of his lack of size and now speed he gets dominated and makes decisions in a hurry that turn the puck over far too often for my liking.  He's being crafty by contributing I won't dispute that but his mistakes and the way he physically can't overcome what happens to him often frustrates me.  It just seems to me that his production doesn't outweigh how much he hurts the team in other areas. 

[Ogre]

I respect so many of you and I've learned a lot from reading you. This one has me confused. My sons and I watch every game and Gionta is the player we get most frustrated with. I get that his 13 points at this point in the year are more than most of us expected but he just makes so many mistakes IMO. His effort this year is respectable but because of his lack of size and now speed he gets dominated and makes decisions in a hurry that turn the puck over far too often for my liking. He's being crafty by contributing I won't dispute that but his mistakes and the way he physically can't overcome what happens to him often frustrates me. It just seems to me that his production doesn't outweigh how much he hurts the team in other areas.

This is a fair observation. How many points you put up vs how many you let up. There's no doubt his best days are gone, but is there enough to fill his void? Experience is a big point in the Gionta debate.

[nfreeman]

Very nice breakdown yse.

 

However, I am a bit skeptical that the Sabres would devote $3MM + $3.5MM + $3MM for Foligno-Larsson-Gionta.  Exceeding $10MM for a 3rd line that will probably contribute a total of 28-30 goals seems a bit rich.  The Sabres need to keep their powder dry, and none of the 2 RFAs or the old guy who wants 1 more year in the NHL has any leverage. 

 

I think if all 3 of them are back, the total cost will come in closer to $7.5MM.

[dudacek]

I agree its a good breakdown. I am hoping Murray can do better.

 

I'd say the Lehner estimate is probably solid if he carries this years performance through. I hope we aren't paying our backup $2 million, but $6 million invested in goalkeeping is reasonable. I'd say it's more likely Ullmark backs up for less than $1 million per.

 

I might also be disappointed if we invest $6.5 in Foligno and Larsson combined.

Unless of course they finish with numbers that justify that kind of investment.

 

The biggest argument against both those guys at that much - and Gionta - is cap, even though we can fit it. There are four or five wingers on the farm ready to take the next step with salaries at less than $1 million. I'd rather use a couple of those guys and add a top three defenceman than invest $8 to 10 million in a third line, as much as I like that line.

[pi2000]

Very nice breakdown yse.

 

However, I am a bit skeptical that the Sabres would devote $3MM + $3.5MM + $3MM for Foligno-Larsson-Gionta. Exceeding $10MM for a 3rd line that will probably contribute a total of 28-30 goals seems a bit rich. The Sabres need to keep their powder dry, and none of the 2 RFAs or the old guy who wants 1 more year in the NHL has any leverage.

 

I think if all 3 of them are back, the total cost will come in closer to $7.5MM.

That's bthe kind of money you spend on a third line when you're a cup contender.

[GASabresIUFAN]

This is getting off thread topic a little, but I agree with Pi, you have to pay something decent to have good 3rd line players and you can't win championships without depth and a strong 3rd line.  In addition, which of the young wingers has proven ytd that they are ready to take over for Gionta?  Between Carrier (20 gms), Baptiste (12), Faching (6) and Bailey (2), the AHL wingers have 40 games, 3 goals, 1 assists. 

 

As to what Larsson and Foligno will get paid next year, I based my salary projection on current pay, their projected production for the season and other skills they possess.  We are through 1/3 of the season and Larsson is on a 30 pt pace and Foligno at 27, with 12-15 goals each. Both add skills to our lineup that we need such as physical play or solid back-checking in addition to the offense.  I also have a general rule is that you pay forwards about $100,000 per point.  At 30 pts each you are talking at least 3 mill each especially since Foligno is already earning 2.25.  If figure at 2 year deal for Marcus at $3 per season and a 3 year deal for Larsson, especially given our lack of depth at center in the AHL at 3.5 per season.  Larsson is the better player and his agent would probably use Marcus' deal as the starting point for his client.  

 

With Gionta at 1 year, Marcus at 2 and Larsson at 3, it gives us time for guys like Fasching, Bailey, Baptiste, Carrier, Pu, Asplund and Cornel to develop in NHLers.  If these guys develop properly, then and only then to you move on from the stability of Marcus, Crazy Larry and Gio.    Also $10.5 is less then 15% of the salary cap.  We are spending that much on Kane (now on the 4th line) and Bogo.  

Edited December 19, 2016 by GASabresIUFAN

[woods-racer]

***I also have a general rule is that you pay forwards about $100,000 per point.  At 30 pts each you are talking at least 3 mill each ***

 

I like this *rule of thumb* of yours. Thanks for sharing it.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

I wish I could get $100,000 per point.

[pi2000]

This is getting off thread topic a little, but I agree with Pi, you have to pay something decent to have good 3rd line players and you can't win championships without depth and a strong 3rd line.  In addition, which of the young wingers has proven ytd that they are ready to take over for Gionta?  Between Carrier (20 gms), Baptiste (12), Faching (6) and Bailey (2), the AHL wingers have 40 games, 3 goals, 1 assists. 

 

As to what Larsson and Foligno will get paid next year, I based my salary projection on current pay, their projected production for the season and other skills they possess.  We are through 1/3 of the season and Larsson is on a 30 pt pace and Foligno at 27, with 12-15 goals each. Both add skills to our lineup that we need such as physical play or solid back-checking in addition to the offense.  I also have a general rule is that you pay forwards about $100,000 per point.  At 30 pts each you are talking at least 3 mill each especially since Foligno is already earning 2.25.  If figure at 2 year deal for Marcus at $3 per season and a 3 year deal for Larsson, especially given our lack of depth at center in the AHL at 3.5 per season.  Larsson is the better player and his agent would probably use Marcus' deal as the starting point for his client.  

 

With Gionta at 1 year, Marcus at 2 and Larsson at 3, it gives us time for guys like Fasching, Bailey, Baptiste, Carrier, Pu, Asplund and Cornel to develop in NHLers.  If these guys develop properly, then and only then to you move on from the stability of Marcus, Crazy Larry and Gio.    Also $10.5 is less then 15% of the salary cap.  We are spending that much on Kane (now on the 4th line) and Bogo.  

 

So, $6m for a 60pt forward?   seems a bit excessive.   

 

I think you pay for upside as well, guys like Gionta are on the downside... Larsson and Foligno are probably at their peak, I don't see how you pay them that much... maybe $1.5-2m   tops.    You can call up a guy from Roch who will get you 30pts playing on a 3rd line, doesn't mean you need to pay him $3mil.

[Randall Flagg]

So, $6m for a 60pt forward?   seems a bit excessive.   

 

That's what we did with ROR and KO, isn't it? well, ROR got 7.5.

[pi2000]

That's what we did with ROR and KO, isn't it? well, ROR got 7.5.

 

ROR is still young, plenty of upside there, and KO.. yeah, well we had no choice to but to overpay.    There won't be the same demand for a Foligno or Gionta the Elder, no need to overpay them.

[Randall Flagg]

ROR is still young, plenty of upside there, and KO.. yeah, well we had no choice to but to overpay.    There won't be the same demand for a Foligno or Gionta the Elder, no need to overpay them.

I'm wondering if $6 mil isn't the going rate for that kind of production now, though. Saad also got something like that and appears to be a 30-30 guy, right? I don't have a lot of examples off the top of my head though

 

And I'm not sure that any of our Rochester guys are capable of 30 points right now, though I wish that was the case.

[qwksndmonster]

ROR is still young, plenty of upside there, and KO.. yeah, well we had no choice to but to overpay. There won't be the same demand for a Foligno or Gionta the Elder, no need to overpay them.

ROR does not have upside. He is what he is, a no BS first liner who can shut other teams down.

 

The extra 1.5 mil is for shutting dudes down.

[pi2000]

ROR does not have upside. He is what he is, a no BS first liner who can shut other teams down.

 

The extra 1.5 mil is for shutting dudes down.

 

Disagree, he's 25, still on an upward trajectory.    

 

 

I'm wondering if $6 mil isn't the going rate for that kind of production now, though. Saad also got something like that and appears to be a 30-30 guy, right? I don't have a lot of examples off the top of my head though

 

And I'm not sure that any of our Rochester guys are capable of 30 points right now, though I wish that was the case.

 

 

My point is that you can't just have a blanket rule of $100k per point.    That's nonsense.    There's age, trends, potential, defensive ability, etc.. that go into what you pay a player.   Do I give $3mil to a 22 year old winger who scored 15 goals and 15 assists?   Maybe I give him $4.5-5 because of his potential to build on that.    If he were 32, then no, I probably offer him $1.5-2m... (unless he's Matt Moulson I give him a max deal at age 35).

[Randall Flagg]

Disagree, he's 25, still on an upward trajectory.    

 

 

 

 

My point is that you can't just have a blanket rule of $100k per point.    That's nonsense.    There's age, trends, potential, defensive ability, etc.. that go into what you pay a player.   Do I give $3mil to a 22 year old winger who scored 15 goals and 15 assists?   Maybe I give him $4.5-5 because of his potential to build on that.    If he were 32, then no, I probably offer him $1.5-2m... (unless he's Matt Moulson I give him a max deal at age 35).

Luckily, he didn't call it a blanket rule. He used a word that specifically allows for exceptions.

[Beer]

I'm late to the conversation but I'll still give my opinion...

 

I would give Gio a 1-year contract, $2-2.5M. Ask him to concede the C to ROR and continue to mentor the youth. He remains extremely serviceable, not a defensive liability and can score/create offense. The Gio-Larsson-Foligno line plays hard and are consistent, something this team desperately needs. Unless the tires fall off between now and the end of their season, I think he's still got gas in the tank.

[WildCard]

Disagree, he's 25, still on an upward trajectory.

True has done the work on this before, a players prime is way sooner than you think. IIRC it's 25-28 or something

[spndnchz]

I'm late to the conversation but I'll still give my opinion...

I would give Gio a 1-year contract, $2-2.5M. Ask him to concede the C to ROR and continue to mentor the youth. He remains extremely serviceable, not a defensive liability and can score/create offense. The Gio-Larsson-Foligno line plays hard and are consistent, something this team desperately needs. Unless the tires fall off between now and the end of their season, I think he's still got gas in the tank.

This.

 

I think he might go lower on the price if it's a pure NHL deal. He's got a lot of mentoring left in him.

[WildCard]

I'm late to the conversation but I'll still give my opinion...

 

I would give Gio a 1-year contract, $2-2.5M. Ask him to concede the C to ROR and continue to mentor the youth. He remains extremely serviceable, not a defensive liability and can score/create offense. The Gio-Larsson-Foligno line plays hard and are consistent, something this team desperately needs. Unless the tires fall off between now and the end of their season, I think he's still got gas in the tank.

He is not conceding the C if he stays. No way, no how

[beerme1]

He is not conceding the C if he stays. No way, no how

 

 

That's the biggest problem I have with the notion of him staying. We're moving on. Surely we can fill the spot. No disrespect to Gio but I agree with your thought that he won't voluntarily give up the C so there is no deal.

[Beer]

That's the biggest problem I have with the notion of him staying. We're moving on. Surely we can fill the spot. No disrespect to Gio but I agree with your thought that he won't voluntarily give up the C so there is no deal.

Maybe you are right, but I don't see the C on his jersey as a detriment to the team either. The natural leaders will lead regardless of what letter is sewn to their sweater.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

I said up thread that I think he should and will be re-signed.

 

As for asking him to give up the C, I think that would be bad form on the Sabres.  If he gives it up great, but if I'm the Sabres coach, or GM, I would want Gionta wearing the C as long as he is playing for the Sabres.  This is ROR's team, but he will be wearing the C, IMO, only when Gionta is no longer on the team, which I expect to be after next season.

[GASabresIUFAN]

So, $6m for a 60pt forward?   seems a bit excessive.   

 

I think you pay for upside as well, guys like Gionta are on the downside... Larsson and Foligno are probably at their peak, I don't see how you pay them that much... maybe $1.5-2m   tops.    You can call up a guy from Roch who will get you 30pts playing on a 3rd line, doesn't mean you need to pay him $3mil.

  

That's what we did with ROR and KO, isn't it? well, ROR got 7.5.

  

 

ROR is still young, plenty of upside there, and KO.. yeah, well we had no choice to but to overpay.    There won't be the same demand for a Foligno or Gionta the Elder, no need to overpay them.

Aren't Larsson and Foligno younger then ROR, why don't they still have upside like ROR?

 

Anyway my general rule of thumb works with pretty much every top 3 line Sabres forward not on a ELC or young RFA.

 

Ennis averaged nearly 45 pts in the 2 seasons before he signed his current deal @ 4.6 per season

Okposo averaged 61 pts in the 3 seasons before signing his deal @ 6.0 per season.

ROR averaged 60 pts in the 2 prior seasons before inking his 7.5 per season deal. The added was for his 2 way play.

Moulson scored 51 pts in his vagabond season and averaged 54 in the 3 season prior to inking his $5.0 per season deal.

Foligno averaged 21 pts in the last 3 seasons and earns $2.25

Kane scored 57 in the season before Wpg gave him the $5.25 per season deal.

Gionta earns 4.25 in his deal with the Sabres. Here are his last 5 seasons in Montreal before signing here. 46 pts, 46 pts, 15 pts in 31 games (40 pts pace), 26 pts in 48 games (a 44 pt pace) and 40 pts. That's over 43 pts per season for the 5 years and over 41 pts per full season in the 3 years before signing here.

 

I'd say my rule of thumb works pretty good.

[WildCard]

Foligno, Larsson, and ROR have all shown by now the players they are. There is no upside with any of them IMO

[Samson's Flow]

    

 

 

Aren't Larsson and Foligno younger then ROR, why don't they still have upside like ROR?

 

Anyway my general rule of thumb works with pretty much every top 3 line Sabres forward not on a ELC or young RFA.

 

Ennis averaged nearly 45 pts in the 2 seasons before he signed his current deal @ 4.6 per season

Okposo averaged 61 pts in the 3 seasons before signing his deal @ 6.0 per season.

ROR averaged 60 pts in the 2 prior seasons before inking his 7.5 per season deal. The added was for his 2 way play.

Moulson scored 51 pts in his vagabond season and averaged 54 in the 3 season prior to inking his $5.0 per season deal.

Foligno averaged 21 pts in the last 3 seasons and earns $2.25

Kane scored 57 in the season before Wpg gave him the $5.25 per season deal.

Gionta earns 4.25 in his deal with the Sabres. Here are his last 5 seasons in Montreal before signing here. 46 pts, 46 pts, 15 pts in 31 games (40 pts pace), 26 pts in 48 games (a 44 pt pace) and 40 pts. That's over 43 pts per season for the 5 years and over 41 pts per full season in the 3 years before signing here.

 

I'd say my rule of thumb works pretty good.

You cant really argue with that logic...