Roster review #25 Mikhail Grigorenko

[Ogre]

He doesn't have much of a choice on the QO, but the Sabres also aren't locked into the QO. They can offer him a longer deal. He knows he'll be on an NHL roster next year. His best bet is to sign an offer and then see whether that team is Buffalo or elsewhere.

 I honestly believe Murray will match any other teams offer as long as it isn't ridiculous in $ or term and I don't see anyone making that type of offer. It seemed to me that Murray would have given him a more substantial look this past season if Nolan would have given him the TOI. I agree that there's no way he goes back to Russia. It's like Frank Stallone says.."that country is so fun king ugly..."

[Hoss]

I honestly believe Murray will match any other teams offer as long as it isn't ridiculous in $ or term and I don't see anyone making that type of offer. It seemed to me that Murray would have given him a more substantial look this past season if Nolan would have given him the TOI. I agree that there's no way he goes back to Russia. It's like Frank Stallone says.."that country is so fun king ugly..."

He will match any offers but I would shocked if he actually did get any offers. The only type of deal he wouldn't match would bring back several picks in compensation anyways.

 

Anything above about $1.3M will generate a second-round pick. Anything above $3.5M will generate a first and third.

Edited May 5, 2015 by Hoss

[Weave]

I expect that will develop into a decent 2nd line center.  I think he has Brassard upside, and Turris is what I believe is his minimum level.  And that if he is moved he should be valued accordingly.

 

What a terrific fleet of centers we have developing.  Keep him for a top 6 role, or move him for a value befitting a young 2nd line center.

[Huckleberry]

I want to see this kid grow up and become a sabre, going to suck for me if he gets traded :(

[X. Benedict]

I really like Grigo. His mishandling aside (and it is a huge aside), his vision, shot and reach are really outstanding. I think if you can add speed to his line he really has the potential to grow into a classic pivot. 

 

Should he be traded to bring in a player to help us now (A Ryan O'Reilly for example) I wouldn't be heartbroken. But I would hope to see a healthy return. 

 

I think he was a guy that was never going to fit into a Ted Nolan system. Nolan is a skate fast to nowhere coach. Grigo is really more of a stay in your lane and move to open space type of player. Having said that, to flourish, Griggy needs a little more thrust in his game, but I think he gets a lot of the same criticism a young Joe Thorton had. He wasn't working hard. (he was, it just was that blowing people up with his big body was never his game, nor was speed in pursuit).

 

I really liked what I saw toward the end of the season when Grigorenko was playing with Gionta. His reach, combined without outside speed were creating a lot of shots on net. 

 

He's still a baby in terms of his youth. 21 years old. Keep him around. Centers don't grow on trees. 

[Kruppstahl]

My guess:  most likely outcome is that Griggy is traded over the summer, probably as part of a package for a good player, but also possibly in a straight-up trade for a prospect or a pick that looks more like a cut-your-losses move (which will have many here up in arms).  I don't think GMTM is interested in being forced to keep him here because he won't clear waivers.  That's a Darcy move.

 

2nd-most-likely outcome is that Reinhart starts the season in Rochester and Griggy starts in Buffalo as the #2 or #3 center.  Of course, this leaves open the possibility that Griggy looks crappy and becomes a frequent healthy scratch.  I don't think GMTM wants to find himself in this situation, which is why I think he'll be traded.

This!  Grigo is not Tim Murray's guy and not his type of guy.

 

He won't be a part of the "good team" around here, once we get good.

 

It's time to start putting everyone in the keeper and "not keeper" camp.

 

Grigo isn't a keeper.  Neither is COHO by the way.  He'll be gone soon too.

[Doohickie]

This!  Grigo is not Tim Murray's guy and not his type of guy.

 

Help me understand what you mean by Grigo isn't "his type of guy."  What is GMTM's type of guy, and why doesn't Grigo fit into that?  The only part I thought was lacking was the "hockey sense" and he seemed to make good strides toward the end of the year.

[X. Benedict]

Help me understand what you mean by Grigo isn't "his type of guy."  What is GMTM's type of guy, and why doesn't Grigo fit into that?  The only part I thought was lacking was the "hockey sense" and he seemed to make good strides toward the end of the year.

Murray likes a beer now and then, grigorenko isn't old enough to buy one yet.

[MattPie]

Help me understand what you mean by Grigo isn't "his type of guy."  What is GMTM's type of guy, and why doesn't Grigo fit into that?  The only part I thought was lacking was the "hockey sense" and he seemed to make good strides toward the end of the year.

 

He was picked by Darcy, duh! Never mind that he's a big scoring forward.

[TrueBlueGED]

I voted top-3 center, but I'd be okay with a move to wing as well. As I've stated elsewhere, I'm not a fan of trading him when his value is, in my estimation, significantly diminished. If he's the final piece for O'Reilly then fine, but otherwise I'd much prefer to give him a real chance to develop into an NHL player. He clearly wasn't as ready as we were told, but I think he has shown clear improvement. The upside of him making it outweighs the opportunity cost of foregoing whatever he'd return in a trade. If this means Reinhart starts in the AHL because of a numbers game, so be it, we're not a playoff team either way.

[Doohickie]

Never mind that he's a big scoring forward.

 

I know, right?  I realize Darcy picked him, but he does seem to be a GMTM type player to me. 

[calti]

Player number nine in our player discussion series

 

Mikhail Girgorenko.jpg

 

#25 Mikhail Grigorenko C (20-year-old RFA)

Rochester 43/14/22/36/-5/27

Buffalo 25/3/3/6/-10/2

 

You all know the back story: big, talented centre slides to Buffalo in the draft, is sold as the second coming, gets handed a roster spot he doesn't deserve at 18, flops in two opportunities and bounces between multiple teams and leagues.

 

What is easy to miss in all the hype and disappointment is that he had what would be a pretty promising season for most 20-year-old mid-first round picks. He scored at close to a 70-point pace as an AHL rookie and got a few looks with the big team, settling in on a decent-looking line with Foligno and Gionta down the stretch. In the NHL his offensive skills were only visible in spurts, perhaps because of the deliberate attention he was giving to his defensive responsibilities, perhaps because of uncertain chemistry with most of his linemates, perhaps because he lacked speed and power.

 

No Sabre enters the season with more question marks. He probably could use another half-season in Rochester, but would have to clear waivers in order to do that. He might be ready for sheltered minutes as a top-nine centre, but is competing against the more highly touted Reinhart and Eichel for that role. Is it worth seeing if he can he play wing, or would that just be the latest example of his continued mishandling?

 

Despite a reputation as a less-than hard worker, Grigorenko's issues last year seemed more to do with confidence than effort. He continues to rank highly on various prospect lists and clearly there is talent there. He is the biggest wild card in the Sabres' stable. Will the card be played here, leveraged in a trade or become a squandered opportunity?

 

Links to the rest of the series:

Anders Linback: http://forums.sabres...nders-lindback/

Pat Kaleta: http://forums.sabres...patrick-kaleta/

Johan Larsson: http://forums.sabres...-johan-larsson/

Matt Hackett: http://forums.sabres...1-matt-hackett/

Andrej Meszaros: http://forums.sabres...ndrej-meszaros/

Phil Varone, Zac Dalpe, Jerry D'Amigo: http://forums.sabrespace.com/topic/23351-roster-review-varone-dalpe-damigo/

well stated and good info.

[qwksndmonster]

I think Grigrenko is finally rounding in to pro form.  It's a shame that we don't have the flexibility to stash him in Roch next year, because I have a really hard time finding a good spot for him on our roster.  This is why I'm okay with using him in a trade.  But as Blue said he probably doesn't have great trade value, so it's tough.

 

As far as what my heart desires, I want Grigorenko to stay with the Sabres and be a part of our eventual cup run(s).  I also don't want Liger to have gotten a #25 Quebec jersey for nothing.

[Kruppstahl]

Help me understand what you mean by Grigo isn't "his type of guy."  What is GMTM's type of guy, and why doesn't Grigo fit into that?  The only part I thought was lacking was the "hockey sense" and he seemed to make good strides toward the end of the year.

This is subject to debate obviously, but Murray has made it clear that he wants a big, "heavy" team.  He likes Foligno, as an example, for this reason, despite the fact that Foligno is a marginal NHL talent at best.

 

Grigorenko is tall, but he is not a "big body" and he most certainly does not play a heavy game, and never will.  That's not who he is.

 

His skating is horrible (it has improved a lot I concede) and he is slow.

 

I don't see him being a part of this team, long term, once we transition to the "real team".

 

I may be wrong.

He was picked by Darcy, duh! Never mind that he's a big scoring forward.

Tall and lanky doesn't mean "big".  

 

He doesn't play a big game.  He is soft and a poor skater.

 

He is more Derek Roy than Gordie Howe.  He is kind of a miniature version of Tyler Myers in my mind...a huge guy who played small.  

 

As you point out, he wasn't Murray's guy, which will make it even easier to move him, along with the likes of Armia, who was equally inappropriately highly rated by a certain contingent of the Sabres fan base IMO.

I think Grigrenko is finally rounding in to pro form.  It's a shame that we don't have the flexibility to stash him in Roch next year, because I have a really hard time finding a good spot for him on our roster.  This is why I'm okay with using him in a trade.  But as Blue said he probably doesn't have great trade value, so it's tough.

 

As far as what my heart desires, I want Grigorenko to stay with the Sabres and be a part of our eventual cup run(s).  I also don't want Liger to have gotten a #25 Quebec jersey for nothing.

Where would you stick him on those Cup run teams?

 

Would you move him to wing?

 

He isn't going to be the 1C, that's Eichel's job.

 

He isn't going to be the 2C, that's Samson's job.

 

He isn't going to e the 3C/shutdown C, that's going to be Zemgod's job.

 

So then you want him centering the 4th line?  I want more muscle on that line than Grigro provides.

[qwksndmonster]

Where would you stick him on those Cup run teams?

 

Would you move him to wing?

 

He isn't going to be the 1C, that's Eichel's job.

 

He isn't going to be the 2C, that's Samson's job.

 

He isn't going to e the 3C/shutdown C, that's going to be Zemgod's job.

 

So then you want him centering the 4th line?  I want more muscle on that line than Grigro provides.

Once all our youngins aren't youngins anymore, I can definitely see a cup roster with Eichel, Samson, and Grigorenko centering the top 3 lines.  Grigorenko might be on the wing, and that's fine too.

 

It won't be a traditional scoring line - sheltered 2nd line - shutdown line setup, the lines will be rolled.  Not to mention if Samson pans out the way we all hope, his line might end up being a shutdown line anyways.

 

I disagree with your assessment of his skating.  I would peg him as "average" right now.  Definitely not "poor"

Edited May 6, 2015 by qwksndmonster

[Taro T]

I find it interesting how vastly differently people around here view the 2nd best C prospect from the draft 3 years ago (a draft viewed as typical for prospect quality) and the the top C prospect from last year's draft (a draft viewed as below average for prospect quality).

 

Neither guy was ready for the NHL in his draft year. The older guy was kept up too long before being sent back to juniors and burned a year off his contract; the younger guy was sent down after a look-see and didn't burn a year off his contract. Both played very well when in juniors after being drafted. Both were viewed as belonging in the AHL the year they were drafted.

 

That stated, 1 is getting penciled in as a bust/near bust after playing fairly well centering the default 2nd line after trades and injuries forced his (since fired) coach to play him there; and the other is getting penciled in as the 2nd line C from day 1 of his 2nd pro-eligible year.

 

Realizing these sentiments aren't universal, but they do seem to be dominant.

[Weave]

I find it interesting how vastly differently people around here view the 2nd best C prospect from the draft 3 years ago (a draft viewed as typical for prospect quality) and the the top C prospect from last year's draft (a draft viewed as below average for prospect quality).

 

Neither guy was ready for the NHL in his draft year. The older guy was kept up too long before being sent back to juniors and burned a year off his contract; the younger guy was sent down after a look-see and didn't burn a year off his contract. Both played very well when in juniors after being drafted. Both were viewed as belonging in the AHL the year they were drafted.

 

That stated, 1 is getting penciled in as a bust/near bust after playing fairly well centering the default 2nd line after trades and injuries forced his (since fired) coach to play him there; and the other is getting penciled in as the 2nd line C from day 1 of his 2nd pro-eligible year.

 

Realizing these sentiments aren't universal, but they do seem to be dominant.

 

Your common sense reeks of heresy.

[TrueBlueGED]

I think the "Murray wants a big, heavy team" idea gets too much play. He drafted Reinhart over Draisaitl (who is bigger) and Bennett (who is more physical). He signed Ennis to a long-term contract rather than seeking a trade, and at least publicly, he praised the season he had. It's certainly a factor in the decision making, but I see too many people assuming Grigorenko is going to be traded seemingly only because he doesn't look/play like David Backes.

[dudacek]

The old guys on here will remember the late 70s Montreal dynasty and a centre by the name of Peter Mahovlich.

Lemaire got the first line gig, Jarvis faced off against the other team's top guys and Risebrough played in the feisty situations.

 

Mahovlich feasted on the PP and against all the other team's scrubs and ended up one of their leading scorers.

His skill set was a lot like Grigo's.

 

I can see a team where Eichel plays Lemaire, Reinhart Jarvis, Compher Risebrough and Grigo racks up great numbers against the other team's third and fourth units.

 

It's OK to have four good centres.

Edited May 6, 2015 by dudacek

[dudacek]

I find it interesting how vastly differently people around here view the 2nd best C prospect from the draft 3 years ago (a draft viewed as typical for prospect quality) and the the top C prospect from last year's draft (a draft viewed as below average for prospect quality).Neither guy was ready for the NHL in his draft year. The older guy was kept up too long before being sent back to juniors and burned a year off his contract; the younger guy was sent down after a look-see and didn't burn a year off his contract. Both played very well when in juniors after being drafted. Both were viewed as belonging in the AHL the year they were drafted.That stated, 1 is getting penciled in as a bust/near bust after playing fairly well centering the default 2nd line after trades and injuries forced his (since fired) coach to play him there; and the other is getting penciled in as the 2nd line C from day 1 of his 2nd pro-eligible year.Realizing these sentiments aren't universal, but they do seem to be dominant.

Good post. But I have to point out that the dominant position in this poll is top three centre next year so maybe the near-bust view isn't as dominant as we think.

[Doohickie]

Would you move him to wing?

 

He isn't going to be the 1C, that's Eichel's job.

 

He isn't going to be the 2C, that's Samson's job.

 

He isn't going to e the 3C/shutdown C, that's going to be Zemgod's job.

 

So then you want him centering the 4th line?  I want more muscle on that line than Grigro provides.

 

I think Grigo is stronger than you give him credit for and toward the end of the season was learning to play the "big" game.  He's still maturing physically and I think it's premature to write him off as a "big Ennis."  I kind of see Larsson, Gus and Grigo duking it out for the 3rd and maybe even 4th line center positions, with one or two of those guys ending up on the wing.  I think there may be a place for all 5 centers on the team, but I can also see Murray moving one or two (either off the team or to wing).

He drafted Reinhart over Draisaitl (who is bigger) and Bennett (who is more physical). 

 

When you're drafting in the top two or three, you don't get fancy, you take the best player available.  Especially in his first draft Murray wasn't going to get cute.  If he truly didn't want Reinhart he could have traded down and gotten one of the guys you mentioned, but even that might have drawn criticism.  

 

That said, I do agree that Grigo may be a part of the long term build.

It's OK to have four good centres.

 

THIS.  The Sabres have been lacking quality centers for a while now.  That's finally ending, but I think we need to remember that you can't have too many centers.  They may end up on the wing, but geeze don't be so quick to move them.  Girgs takes a shot off his ankle, someone else blows out a knee (heaven forbid)... having that extra center hanging out on the wing will be a treasure.

[MBHockey13]

I think Grigo is part of the fantastic amount of wealth we have in the system. He's a great player who's only 20 and still developing.

[Andrew Amerk]

I think Grigo is part of the fantastic amount of wealth we have in the system. He's a great player who's only 20 and still developing.

21 in 10 days

[Johnny DangerFace]

21 in 10 days

Hehe it's all downhill from there!

[...]

Murray would be a fool to trade Grigorenko unless the return is significant. Look what we got in return for Myers after being patient enough to let him "return to form". Any one of you who see Grigorenko as trade bait are simply going to have to wait until he develops more.

 

But unless it's obvious this season he's hit his limit, I doubt he gets traded any time in the next three to five seasons.