Roster review #25 Mikhail Grigorenko

[dudacek]

Player number nine in our player discussion series

 

 

#25 Mikhail Grigorenko C (20-year-old RFA)

Rochester 43/14/22/36/-5/27

Buffalo 25/3/3/6/-10/2

 

You all know the back story: big, talented centre slides to Buffalo in the draft, is sold as the second coming, gets handed a roster spot he doesn't deserve at 18, flops in two opportunities and bounces between multiple teams and leagues.

 

What is easy to miss in all the hype and disappointment is that he had what would be a pretty promising season for most 20-year-old mid-first round picks. He scored at close to a 70-point pace as an AHL rookie and got a few looks with the big team, settling in on a decent-looking line with Foligno and Gionta down the stretch. In the NHL his offensive skills were only visible in spurts, perhaps because of the deliberate attention he was giving to his defensive responsibilities, perhaps because of uncertain chemistry with most of his linemates, perhaps because he lacked speed and power.

 

No Sabre enters the season with more question marks. He probably could use another half-season in Rochester, but would have to clear waivers in order to do that. He might be ready for sheltered minutes as a top-nine centre, but is competing against the more highly touted Reinhart and Eichel for that role. Is it worth seeing if he can he play wing, or would that just be the latest example of his continued mishandling?

 

Despite a reputation as a less-than hard worker, Grigorenko's issues last year seemed more to do with confidence than effort. He continues to rank highly on various prospect lists and clearly there is talent there. He is the biggest wild card in the Sabres' stable. Will the card be played here, leveraged in a trade or become a squandered opportunity?

 

Links to the rest of the series:

Anders Linback: http://forums.sabres...nders-lindback/
Pat Kaleta: http://forums.sabres...patrick-kaleta/
Johan Larsson: http://forums.sabres...-johan-larsson/
Matt Hackett: http://forums.sabres...1-matt-hackett/
Andrej Meszaros: http://forums.sabres...ndrej-meszaros/

Phil Varone, Zac Dalpe, Jerry D'Amigo: http://forums.sabrespace.com/topic/23351-roster-review-varone-dalpe-damigo/

Edited May 4, 2015 by dudacek

[LGR4GM]

I think you hit a nail on the head "perhaps because of the deliberate attention he was giving to his defensive responsibilities".  Mikhail Grigorenko last season mercifully stayed in Rochester for the duration.  He played quite well down there and with Armia as a winger took great strides forwards.  He went from being a very questionable prospect (although I think this was unfair) to being solid. His faceoff skills are superb, his shot has a pro release, speed and power.  Defensively he seems very aware and able to tie up his man or make quick smart plays out of the zone. His skating which was once a major weakness is now what I would consider average for most NHL players (he needs a little more speed).  

 

Offensively his mind is highly creative and his passive skills are good.  He needs to work on his battles along the boards because he is strong enough to win them but sometimes comes up looking weak.  At the NHL level he needs to shoot more and I think moving him to wing is actually a wise move if he can get in the habit of retrieving pucks down low because once he gets the puck he has a quick accurate pass.  I want them to keep Mikhail Grigorenko for this season at the least.  Let's see what the kid actually has. He will be 21 in this month and is only 18 Months older than Sam Reinhart.  I think he's grown up a lot in the last year and I think he will be a solid 2nd line player by age 24.

[nfreeman]

My guess:  most likely outcome is that Griggy is traded over the summer, probably as part of a package for a good player, but also possibly in a straight-up trade for a prospect or a pick that looks more like a cut-your-losses move (which will have many here up in arms).  I don't think GMTM is interested in being forced to keep him here because he won't clear waivers.  That's a Darcy move.

 

2nd-most-likely outcome is that Reinhart starts the season in Rochester and Griggy starts in Buffalo as the #2 or #3 center.  Of course, this leaves open the possibility that Griggy looks crappy and becomes a frequent healthy scratch.  I don't think GMTM wants to find himself in this situation, which is why I think he'll be traded.

[dudacek]

I want to see Reinhart in Buffalo this year, but I am coming around to the start-him-in-Rochester position.

The reason is I think we need to see what we have in Grigorenko first and there is not room for both of them right now.

 

I think Grigo is in a very fragile spot at the moment and if we jerk him around we could lose him. I like how he looked with Foligno and Gionta and I would like to see him in a similar role next year, with some PP time added in to get him feeling things offensively.

 

I'm fine with him being the bait in a big trade, but don't give him away.

And if he is here, he needs to be put into a position to succeed.

 

The organization handled him well last year. Let's not throw that all away.

Edited May 4, 2015 by dudacek

[woods-racer]

15-16 won't be a tank year ( I hope we all agree on that!) but we are at the bottom and need to see what we have. They just fired a coach that seemed from GMTM comments didn't do so well at setting up young talent to succeed. I think they sign him to a deal, short and sweet, see what a really good coach can get out of him  before making any decisions.  He is bigger and skilled and only 21, worth another year or two to see if he pans out. We're not going to the playoffs in 16, so why waste a chance when there is cap room for him.

[LGR4GM]

I want to see Reinhart in Buffalo this year, but I am coming around to the start-him-in-Rochester position.

The reason is I think we need to see what we have in Grigorenko first and there is not room for both of them right now.

 

I think Grigo is in a very fragile spot at the moment and if we jerk him around we could lose him. I like how he looked with Foligno and Gionta and I would like to see him in a similar role next year, with some PP time added in to get him feeling things offensively.

 

I'm fine with him being the bait in big trade, but don't give him away.

And if he is here, he needs to be put into a position to succeed.

 

The organization handled him well last year. Let's not throw that all away.

I could agree with that.  When they sent him to Rochester last year I was annoyed but in hindsight it was the best move. 

[Ogre]

I'd like to see Grigorenko get a full year in Buffalo. Play him on wing if you must. I feel he has above average talent and I'd hate to see another team benefit from our development. I don't see a problem with room for him as I think Reinhart spends the majority of next year on the Amerks squad. Judging from his locker room clean out interview, that seems to be where he expects to be next year.

Also, very nice work on these roster reviews. I think they are great!

[Drunkard]

Grigorenko needs a spot in the top 9 whether it's a center or wing. 2nd or 3rd line and put with at least 1 veteran that can help shelter/cover for him on his line. I think he'll develop with a little more seasoning but I don't think his value is high enough that it's worth trading him so I'd prefer to keep him and see what he can do.

Edited May 4, 2015 by Drunkard

[IKnowPhysics]

He's got to get good usage to be successful, but he also has to earn that opportunity.  I'm hearing he's made good strides over the past year and he's been receptive to coaching.  He's got a huge training camp in front of him.

 

I think he has the ability to step up -enough that you don't risk him in waivers or in a throwaway trade- the only question left is if he's ready to take the next step.

[Taro T]

Grigorenko needs a spot in the top 9 whether it's a center or wing. 2nd or 3rd line and put with at least 1 veteran that can help shelter/cover for him on his line. I think he'll develop with a little more seasoning but I don't think his value is high enough that it's worth trading him so I'd prefer to keep him and see what he can do.

Yep. Unless they bring in someone to push Foligno or Gionta to the 4th line, I'd like to see that line together again and have Grigorenko bumped onto a pp unit. Gionta looked good w/ the 2 kids and it looked like both played better w/ him after they all got used to each others' tendencies.

 

I'd hate to see him traded straight up, but could/would come around to him as part of a package to bring in a true 1st line RW.

[Doohickie]

No Sabre enters the season with more question marks.

...except for CoHo.

 

 

 

Anyway, I checked top 3 center because I think his ceiling is there. In my mind his size makes him a good 3rd line center, but when it all shakes out I could see him on the fourth line eventually... not as a knock against him but as a testament to the center depth the Sabres may end up with. Assuming Eichel and Reinhart center the top two lines, I see Grigo, Larsson and Zemgus all competing for the other two center spots, and one or two of those guys moving to top-six wing.

 

I think figuring out what to do with the centers the Sabres have will be the top assignment for the new coach. I think Grigo could end up as third line center filling in on the second line as needed. I think in the Eichel thread someone said something about putting Grigo on Eichel's wing (or perhaps Reinhart's) to take faceoffs if that part of their game isn't quite mature in the fall, that'd be fine too.

 

I just hope the Grigo we see in the fall was the late season 2014-15 version, not the earlier incarnations. I tend to think this may be the case, that he's grown into being a pretty decent NHLer. If he doesn't, I can see GMTM moving him for a bag of pucks.

[inkman]

I think they sign him to a deal...

What's the other option?

[woods-racer]

What's the other option?

 

Not sign him. He's an RFA. There was talk of going back to Russia (KHL), but he has said he wants to be in NHL.

 

Is this where the Bridge(?) contract is applied ?. Not the contract specialist... but know something has to be done to bring him back.

[Drunkard]

Not sign him. He's an RFA. There was talk of going back to Russia (KHL), but he has said he wants to be in NHL.

 

Is this where the Bridge(?) contract is applied ?. Not the contract specialist... but know something has to be done to bring him back.

Yes, they can sign him to a bridge contract which would definitely be the smart move at this point since we don't really know what we have in him at this point or where he'll fit on the roster.

[inkman]

Not sign him. He's an RFA. There was talk of going back to Russia (KHL), but he has said he wants to be in NHL.

 

Is this where the Bridge(?) contract is applied ?. Not the contract specialist... but know something has to be done to bring him back.

How many RFAs have walked over the years? I know it's been done but I feel like it would be quite newsworthy.

[Huckleberry]

Not sign him. He's an RFA. There was talk of going back to Russia (KHL), but he has said he wants to be in NHL.

 

Is this where the Bridge(?) contract is applied ?. Not the contract specialist... but know something has to be done to bring him back.

 

There was never any reason to believe he would go back to russia, the kid said many times before already he wanted to play for the sabres.

Next year will be very interesting to see how our prospects all turn out.

 

Will grigorenko finally bust out and become a top 6 player ?

the difference i think between him and Zemgus is, i don't expect Zemgus to be more than a 3rd liner on a good team.  Grigorenko still has a higher ceiling for me.

[Hoss]

I voted for three options here. Won't be heart broken if a team demands him in a bigger package for a vet. Otherwise he plays wing or center in the top 9.

[woods-racer]

So the Sabres are without a doubt singing him?  

 

 

NHL[edit]

A player who is no longer considered to be entry-level, but does not qualify as an unrestricted free agent, becomes a restricted free agent when his contract expires. A player may only declare himself to be an unrestricted free agent if he is over the age of 27 or has played in the league for a minimum of 7 years.

Qualifying offers[edit]

The current team must extend a "qualifying offer" to a restricted free agent to retain negotiating rights to that player. Qualifying offers are for one year contracts. The minimum salary for the qualifying offer depends on the player's prior year salary.

Players who earned less than $660,000 in the previous season must be offered 110 percent of last season's salary. Players making up to $1 million must be offered 105 percent. Players making over $1 million must be offered 100 percent.

• If the qualifying offer is not made, the player becomes an unrestricted free agent.

• If the player rejects a qualifying offer, he remains a restricted free agent.

• If the player does not sign before December 1st, he is ineligible to play in the NHL for the remainder of the season.

Possible outcomes[edit]

If a player accepts a qualifying offer, he then signs a one year contract with his current team under the terms of the offer. If the player rejects the qualifying offer, or has not yet accepted it he is able to negotiate offer sheets with other teams. Qualifying offers are required for a team to retain a player's rights, but in most cases the player and team will agree to a contract differing from the qualifying offer. Should the player sign an offer sheet with another team, his current team is notified and can no longer negotiate a new contract or trade the player rights to another team. The current team has 7 days to make a decision whether to match the offer sheet, or decline and receive draft pick compensation from the team making the offer sheet.

• Accept The player remains with his current team on a contract identical to that of the offer sheet. With the exception that the current team does not have to match any clauses restricting their ability to trade or re-assign the player like a "no trade clause". The team is not allowed to trade the player for one year.

• Decline The player becomes a member of the team with whom he signed the offer sheet under all the terms of said offer sheet. His now former team claims draft picks from the player’s new team as compensation. Compensatory draft picks are determined by the player’s new salary on a sliding scale.

 

************************************

Edited May 4, 2015 by Woods-Racer

[Taro T]

So the Sabres are without a doubt singing him?  

 

 

NHL[edit]

A player who is no longer considered to be entry-level, but does not qualify as an unrestricted free agent, becomes a restricted free agent when his contract expires. A player may only declare himself to be an unrestricted free agent if he is over the age of 27 or has played in the league for a minimum of 7 years.

Qualifying offers[edit]

The current team must extend a "qualifying offer" to a restricted free agent to retain negotiating rights to that player. Qualifying offers are for one year contracts. The minimum salary for the qualifying offer depends on the player's prior year salary.

Players who earned less than $660,000 in the previous season must be offered 110 percent of last season's salary. Players making up to $1 million must be offered 105 percent. Players making over $1 million must be offered 100 percent.

• If the qualifying offer is not made, the player becomes an unrestricted free agent.

• If the player rejects a qualifying offer, he remains a restricted free agent.

• If the player does not sign before December 1st, he is ineligible to play in the NHL for the remainder of the season.

Possible outcomes[edit]

If a player accepts a qualifying offer, he then signs a one year contract with his current team under the terms of the offer. If the player rejects the qualifying offer, or has not yet accepted it he is able to negotiate offer sheets with other teams. Qualifying offers are required for a team to retain a player's rights, but in most cases the player and team will agree to a contract differing from the qualifying offer. Should the player sign an offer sheet with another team, his current team is notified and can no longer negotiate a new contract or trade the player rights to another team. The current team has 7 days to make a decision whether to match the offer sheet, or decline and receive draft pick compensation from the team making the offer sheet.

• Accept The player remains with his current team on a contract identical to that of the offer sheet. With the exception that the current team does not have to match any clauses restricting their ability to trade or re-assign the player like a "no trade clause". The team is not allowed to trade the player for one year.

• Decline The player becomes a member of the team with whom he signed the offer sheet under all the terms of said offer sheet. His now former team claims draft picks from the player’s new team as compensation. Compensatory draft picks are determined by the player’s new salary on a sliding scale.

************************************

There is a lot that is not in the Sabres control that could happen. No guaranty he is a Sabre yet still in the NHL.

 

The Sabres absolutely will make him a qualifying offer.

 

Can't see many scenarios where a team would make an offer that would cause the Sabres to prefer the picks that come as compensation. Can you come up w/ any? And remember, Tyler Toffoli will in all likelihood ge an RFA as well.

 

Guys w/ 6 goals and 14 NHL points over parts of 3 seasons rarely get multiple pick comp offers regardless of how poorly their development has been managed.

[LGR4GM]

The Sabres absolutely will make him a qualifying offer.

 

Can't see many scenarios where a team would make an offer that would cause the Sabres to prefer the picks that come as compensation. Can you come up w/ any? And remember, Tyler Toffoli will in all likelihood ge an RFA as well.

 

Guys w/ 6 goals and 14 NHL points over parts of 3 seasons rarely get multiple pick comp offers regardless of how poorly their development has been managed.

Agreed. If Murray failed to offer Grigorenko it would seriously make me question is ability to GM a team.

[Rasmus_]

I still see him being a move candidate.  I thought he played at a higher level in both Buffalo and especially Rochester this season.  He gets it and he's taken his instructions well.  He does need to play with talent to bring out the best of his abilities.  We're still only talking about a 21 year old with size and talent that you cannot just pick up.  With Eichel and Reinhart in the loop it will be hard for him to get past them unless one completely busts, which seems unlikely.  I could see him being involved in a trade for anything from a top 6 wing or another top four left handed defensemen.  It depends on what is available this season.  If he is not moved, he'll likely be moved to the wing for the short and long term if he stays in Buffalo. 

[woods-racer]

Agreed. If Murray failed to offer Grigorenko it would seriously make me question is ability to GM a team.

 

 

The Sabres absolutely will make him a qualifying offer.

 

Can't see many scenarios where a team would make an offer that would cause the Sabres to prefer the picks that come as compensation. Can you come up w/ any? And remember, Tyler Toffoli will in all likelihood ge an RFA as well.

 

Guys w/ 6 goals and 14 NHL points over parts of 3 seasons rarely get multiple pick comp offers regardless of how poorly their development has been managed.

 

But this is the same kid that had to be talked off the ledge when he didn't want to go back to the Junior team. There is no doubt a qualifying offer will be made by GMTM, but the unknown to me is will he accept. Does he or his agent feel Buffalo is the place to be for him?

 

I read quotes where he wants to remain in the NHL, as late as mid April, but I don't remember him saying "and wants to remain a Sabre".

[LGR4GM]

But this is the same kid that had to be talked off the ledge when he didn't want to go back to the Junior team. There is no doubt a qualifying offer will be made by GMTM, but the unknown to me is will he accept. Does he or his agent feel Buffalo is the place to be for him?

 

I read quotes where he wants to remain in the NHL, as late as mid April, but I don't remember him saying "and wants to remain a Sabre".

Who cares if he doesn't accept.  If he doesn't sign a deal by December he has to sit out a year, which he won't do.  He will sign because it is the smart thing to do.

[Taro T]

But this is the same kid that had to be talked off the ledge when he didn't want to go back to the Junior team. There is no doubt a qualifying offer will be made by GMTM, but the unknown to me is will he accept. Does he or his agent feel Buffalo is the place to be for him?

 

I read quotes where he wants to remain in the NHL, as late as mid April, but I don't remember him saying "and wants to remain a Sabre".

This kid chose to play in the Q rather than stay in Russia in hopes of getting drafted into the NHL.

 

If the Sabres make him a qualifying offer, he can continue living his dream of playing in the NHL or he can go back to Russia. Unless somebody makes him a stupid good offer, the Sabres will match any offer he'd get. He is (soon will be, technically) an RFA, not an UFA, so the Sabres can match any NHL offer he'd get. If he turns down the qualifying offer & doesn't negotiate a deal w/ the Sabres he has exactly 2 options: play overseas (not happening) or sit (not happening).

 

He's not getting an offer sheet and he wants to be in the NHL. Unless the Sabres get an offer of a 1st line winger for a package including him, as TP says "he ain't goin' anywhere." ;)

[Hoss]

But this is the same kid that had to be talked off the ledge when he didn't want to go back to the Junior team. There is no doubt a qualifying offer will be made by GMTM, but the unknown to me is will he accept. Does he or his agent feel Buffalo is the place to be for him?

 

I read quotes where he wants to remain in the NHL, as late as mid April, but I don't remember him saying "and wants to remain a Sabre".

He doesn't have much of a choice on the QO, but the Sabres also aren't locked into the QO. They can offer him a longer deal. He knows he'll be on an NHL roster next year. His best bet is to sign an offer and then see whether that team is Buffalo or elsewhere.