The Jack Eichel thread.

[Rasmus_]

I don't think people are.

 

Is anyone else really encouraged by the notion that a 19 year old Reinhart can outclass an 18 year old Eichel?  The vibe on this board for a couple months has been that our franchise is basically "Eichel and others" -- especially as it comes to prospects.  How much better shape are we in if we have another center that can go toe to toe with him?  I'm thrilled that we have both of these guys.

 

All I will say is it's a blessing and a credence to the work ethic of Reinhart to take last year in stride and to work on his weight strengthening program and skating/conditioning to come in and use all the press on Eichel as further ammo to press forward.  It's great to have both in our stable.  I truly loved watching Reinhart play as much as I do Eichel already.  I would say the drop off after these two is a bit large but guys like Bailey and others have upside!

[TrueBlueGED]

Second rounders miss more than hit. I don't have the numbers handy, but I'd guess if you take three 2nd rounders, one "should" hit and if you have two of the three hit, you're doing well. If all three hit, go get some lottery tickets.

Not only don't most hit, but most don't even play NHL games. It's a total crap shoot. Besides, aren't most of the scouts the same ones who drafted the likes of McCabe, Baptiste, Bailey, etc? I don't think Murray came in and fired the entire scouting department. Just goes to show the luck involved.

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

Not only don't most hit, but most don't even play NHL games. It's a total crap shoot.

 

Are you sure? It didn't say that on the last 2 season ticket holder pamphlets.........

[TrueBlueGED]

Are you sure? It didn't say that on the last 2 season ticket holder pamphlets.........

That's why the sheer number of picks was important, and why a bunch were shipped out for actual players ;)

[Ghost of Dwight Drane]

That's why the sheer number of picks was important, and why a bunch were shipped out for actual players ;)

 

A #12, #16, #31, #35 and $8 million a year for a 2nd line center........

[shrader]

Not only don't most hit, but most don't even play NHL games. It's a total crap shoot. Besides, aren't most of the scouts the same ones who drafted the likes of McCabe, Baptiste, Bailey, etc? I don't think Murray came in and fired the entire scouting department. Just goes to show the luck involved.

 

I have absolutely zero evidence to back this up, but it's just a hunch.  I'd imagine that the hit rate of second round picks has increased over recent years.  The scouting is far more in tune and has so much more access to these kids now.  They know far more than they did 20 or so years ago.  They'll never be able to cancel out the question marks involved with scouting kids not all that far removed from puberty, but they do have a much better idea of how they can play than they ever did before.

[Weave]

The statistic I've read most often indicates that 2nd round picks succeed at about a 25% clip, so 3 out of 4 2nd round picks don't become NHL players.  It's not an indictment of a GM to miss out on 2nd round picks most years.

[K-9]

A #12, #16, #31, #35 and $8 million a year for a 2nd line center........

Context please. 

 

GO SABRES!!!

[Doohickie]

The pieces the Sabres traded for Ryan O'Reilly. Grigo (#12), Zads (#16), Compher (#35) plus this year's #31 overall.

[K-9]

The pieces the Sabres traded for Ryan O'Reilly. Grigo (#12), Zads (#16), Compher (#35) plus this year's #31 overall.

A player who hasn't shown anything. 

 

A player who has shown flashes of potential and immaturity while disappearing for the last 20 games last season. 

 

A college player that regressed his sophomore year and is at least two years away from making an NHL team. 

 

Jeremy Roy. Who?

 

Proven NHL top-6 performer, 60 point scorer in the NHL, universally recognized as a top two-way player in the NHL, Lady Byng winner, team leader who would rather lose a limb than lose a game. 

 

In other words, a bunch of players who either haven't accomplished anything in the league or haven't been in the league at all for one that has. And is only 24 years old. 

 

GO SABRES!!!

[Drunkard]

A player who hasn't shown anything. 

 

A player who has shown flashes of potential and immaturity while disappearing for the last 20 games last season. 

 

A college player that regressed his sophomore year and is at least two years away from making an NHL team. 

 

Jeremy Roy. Who?

 

Proven NHL top-6 performer, 60 point scorer in the NHL, universally recognized as a top two-way player in the NHL, Lady Byng winner, team leader who would rather lose a limb than lose a game. 

 

In other words, a bunch of players who either haven't accomplished anything in the league or haven't been in the league at all for one that has. And is only 24 years old. 

 

GO SABRES!!!

 

I get that O'Reilly is everyone's new favorite person but he's only scored 60 points once in his career to date. I didn't recall everyone praising Stafford as a 30 goal scorer in the NHL but by the same logic that's how he should be referred to. At this point O'Reilly is a 50 point 2 way center who is being paid top line money. He's a great option to keep Eichel and Reinhart from being thrown to the wolves as rookies though.

[That Aud Smell]

i'm open to the contention that GM TM overpaid in annual salary for his team's 2nd line center of the future (especially if the canadian dollar continues to tank and the cap is depressed as a result), but the idea that GM TM gave up too much in terms of picks/prospects is a fairly silly one. colorado got a grab bag of quite possibly nothing in exchange for ROR.

[Drunkard]

i'm open to the contention that GM TM overpaid in annual salary for his team's 2nd line center of the future (especially if the canadian dollar continues to tank and the cap is depressed as a result), but the idea that GM TM gave up too much in terms of picks/prospects is a fairly silly one. colorado got a grab bag of quite possibly nothing in exchange for ROR.

 

I think he overpaid but that's because I had high expectations for Zadorov and I don't think O'Reilly will be nearly as needed within a year of his new contract kicking in even though he'll still be highly useful due to his versatility. I had Zadorov and Ristolainen pegged as our top pairing for a decade and now I look at our left side and I see a recovering Gorges, McCabe, and Weber as our likely guys on the roster. I'm probably biased though because I personally wouldn't have traded Zadorov for O'Reilly straight up, let alone adding the other pieces included (none of the rest of which really bother me whatsoever). In all fairness I get that Zadorov carries risk and O'Reilly is much more of a sure thing, but that's still how I feel about it.

[K-9]

I get that O'Reilly is everyone's new favorite person but he's only scored 60 points once in his career to date. I didn't recall everyone praising Stafford as a 30 goal scorer in the NHL but by the same logic that's how he should be referred to. At this point O'Reilly is a 50 point 2 way center who is being paid top line money. He's a great option to keep Eichel and Reinhart from being thrown to the wolves as rookies though.

It's not about the points with O'Reilly. He's the new "intangible"; Drury 2.0. If he scores 60 points it's pure bonus. The points he prevents opponents from scoring are just as valuable imo. 

 

When it comes to hockey character, Stafford isn't in the same universe. Not even close. 

 

The money is a total non issue. 

 

GO SABRES!!!

i'm open to the contention that GM TM overpaid in annual salary for his team's 2nd line center of the future (especially if the canadian dollar continues to tank and the cap is depressed as a result), but the idea that GM TM gave up too much in terms of picks/prospects is a fairly silly one. colorado got a grab bag of quite possibly nothing in exchange for ROR.

In a few years, his deal won't seem like an "over" payment at all as salaries continue to escalate. 

 

GO SABRES!!!

[Drunkard]

It's not about the points with O'Reilly. He's the new "intangible"; Drury 2.0. If he scores 60 points it's pure bonus. The points he prevents opponents from scoring are just as valuable imo. 

 

When it comes to hockey character, Stafford isn't in the same universe. Not even close. 

 

The money is a total non issue. 

 

GO SABRES!!!

 

It may not be all about points but you included it so I decided to make a point about the fact that Mr. Intangibles has only scored 60 points once so he shouldn't be referred to as a 60 point player when that was his best season and not his typical one.

 

Also, to say the money is a total non issue is only taking our present salary cap into consideration. Once Eichel, Reinhart, Ristolainen, and Girgensons are off ELC's the money/cap space will certainly be an issue and it could lead to losing somebody like Kane or Bogosian. Sure by then Gionta and Gorges will be off the books but they'll need replacements and we'll probably be able to move a guy like Moulson but to make a blanket statement like the money is a non-issue is either fairly disingenuous or just looking at the short term.

[dudacek]

I get that O'Reilly is everyone's new favorite person but he's only scored 60 points once in his career to date. I didn't recall everyone praising Stafford as a 30 goal scorer in the NHL but by the same logic that's how he should be referred to. At this point O'Reilly is a 50 point 2 way center who is being paid top line money. He's a great option to keep Eichel and Reinhart from being thrown to the wolves as rookies though.

 

The O'Reilly debate will be settled by how he and the team play, but I am getting tired of him being minimized as a "50-point scorer."

 

Pro-rating for the lockout, his worst season in the past four is 55 points.

He's averaged 59 points per 82 games over that span.

 

For perspective, 24 centres scored 59 points last year.

 

Jonathan Toews got 66.

[K-9]

It may not be all about points but you included it so I decided to make a point about the fact that Mr. Intangibles has only scored 60 points once so he shouldn't be referred to as a 60 point player when that was his best season and not his typical one.

 

Also, to say the money is a total non issue is only taking our present salary cap into consideration. Once Eichel, Reinhart, Ristolainen, and Girgensons are off ELC's the money/cap space will certainly be an issue and it could lead to losing somebody like Kane or Bogosian. Sure by then Gionta and Gorges will be off the books but they'll need replacements and we'll probably be able to move a guy like Moulson but to make a blanket statement like the money is a non-issue is either fairly disingenuous or just looking at the short term.

Not meaning to come across as disingenuous at all. Perhaps his number will have future cap implications in the face of re-signing certain other players; that remains to be seen.  But that's not the context in which I meant it. In terms of how teams value players, the money is a non-issue and can't be considered something they "gave up" to sign him in the way that the two players and two prospects were. 

 

GO SABRES!!!

[TrueBlueGED]

I think he overpaid but that's because I had high expectations for Zadorov and I don't think O'Reilly will be nearly as needed within a year of his new contract kicking in even though he'll still be highly useful due to his versatility. I had Zadorov and Ristolainen pegged as our top pairing for a decade and now I look at our left side and I see a recovering Gorges, McCabe, and Weber as our likely guys on the roster. I'm probably biased though because I personally wouldn't have traded Zadorov for O'Reilly straight up, let alone adding the other pieces included (none of the rest of which really bother me whatsoever). In all fairness I get that Zadorov carries risk and O'Reilly is much more of a sure thing, but that's still how I feel about it.

 

As if this hasn't been beaten to death already, that little nugget should bring everything to a close until the puck drops in October. If you are that certain that Zadorov will be (not can be, but will be) a franchise defenseman, I don't see any value in debating the trade further. I wouldn't have made the trade either if I were that positive about Zadorov, but to say I'm not would be a vast understatement :)

[Drunkard]

The O'Reilly debate will be settled by how he and the team play, but I am getting tired of him being minimized as a "50-point scorer."

 

Pro-rating for the lockout, his worst season in the past four is 55 points.

He's averaged 59 points per 82 games over that span.

 

For perspective, 24 centres scored 59 points last year.

 

Jonathan Toews got 66.

 

You must be reading other boards then because he gets way more praise, admiration, and hero worship then he gets people calling him a 50 point scorer, 2 way forward, or whatever you want to claim as a non-glowing description. The fact is he's getting paid top line center money (not superstar money, just regular top line center) and within a year or two he will not be our top line center. If he is then tanking was a disaster because that will mean that neither Eichel or Reinhart lived up to the hype.

[K-9]

As if this hasn't been beaten to death already, that little nugget should bring everything to a close until the puck drops in October. If you are that certain that Zadorov will be (not can be, but will be) a franchise defenseman, I don't see any value in debating the trade further. I wouldn't have made the trade either if I were that positive about Zadorov, but to say I'm not would be a vast understatement :)

I, too, was looking forward to a Risto/Z pairing for the next 10 years. But, aside from a handful of great plays and that he gives out the most pucks to kids during warmups, he raised a ton of red flags for me. I don't hold his immaturity against him; he's just 20 after all. But he mailed it in the last 20 games last year and that concerns me greatly. I don't care if he didn't like Nolan or that he was fed up with the tank, you either have passion to play or you don't. I am weary of players that seem to turn their passion on and off. When I contrast his 20 year old attitude with a player like Girgensens for example, it really crystallizes the issue in my mind. Too much of a wild card. 

 

GO SABRES!!!

[Drunkard]

As if this hasn't been beaten to death already, that little nugget should bring everything to a close until the puck drops in October. If you are that certain that Zadorov will be (not can be, but will be) a franchise defenseman, I don't see any value in debating the trade further. I wouldn't have made the trade either if I were that positive about Zadorov, but to say I'm not would be a vast understatement :)

Fair enough, sir. We can agree to disagree and I don't expect anyone to give up their views or expectations to agree with me. I just hope we find a good LHD because what we currently have gives me concern. Maybe in a couple of seasons after Eichel and Reinhart have assumed their future roles as our top 2 centers though we can trade O'Reilly to a center starved team for a good one (LHD) though. I'm hoping that TM will have the situation resolved prior to that of course but it's always a possibility.

[dudacek]

You must be reading other boards then because he gets way more praise, admiration, and hero worship then he gets people calling him a 50 point scorer, 2 way forward, or whatever you want to claim as a non-glowing description. The fact is he's getting paid top line center money (not superstar money, just regular top line center) and within a year or two he will not be our top line center. If he is then tanking was a disaster because that will mean that neither Eichel or Reinhart lived up to the hype.

 

He's getting top-line money because they Sabres believe he's been performing at a top-line level and will continue to do so. What's different here is he's getting that money when's he's 24 to 32 instead of when he's 27 to 35, which was typical under the last CBA.

 

I don't want to come off as an O'Reilly fanboy. I like him, but he still has to prove he's worth the cost in cash and players. If O'Reilly plays to a Patrice Bergeron level over the term of the contract it will be money well-spent.

Edited July 13, 2015 by dudacek

[Doohickie]

I had Zadorov and Ristolainen pegged as our top pairing for a decade

Eh.... I think Risto has shown that potential and is on his way. Zads showed only glimpses of that. We hoped he would become that player, but he's no where close to a lock in terms of being a top pair Dman.  I think Zads and Grigo are in exactly the same spot- show potential but not consistent enough to call them top NHL players.  So we packaged that risk up and moved it for a player with a better, more certain payoff.  If they couldn't sign O'Reilly, Colorado accepted unproven prospects in return; if either one of Grigo or Zads works out, they will probably be happy but I doubt they expect both will.

[Taro T]

He's getting top-line money because they Sabres believe he's been performing at a top-line level and will continue to do so. What's different here is he's getting that money when's he's 24 to 32 instead of when he's 27 to 35, which was typical under the last CBA.

 

I don't want to come off as an O'Reilly fanboy. I like him, but he still has to prove he's worth the cost in cash and players. If O'Reilly plays to a Patrice Bergeron level over the term of the contract it will be money well-spent.

An item regarding O'Reilly's contract that is interesting to me is: what would the contract have been w/out the signing bonus (and the deal for his brother)? Wouldn't surprise me to find out, on a 'standard' deal, he'd've been up at $8MM. That extra $500k when it comes time to sign Jack (& others) to his (their) LT deal(s) will look huge.

 

These are where having an owner not AS concerned about ST profits relative to winning is big. Kind of cool that the Sabres figured out the loophole (or were early adapters) rather than watching what everybody else does for a rare occasion (can't say for 1st time because they were the video scouting proponents; jury still out on that - seems their higher end picks hit more, but don't seem to find any low end gems since it began).

[That Aud Smell]

I'm probably biased though because I personally wouldn't have traded Zadorov for O'Reilly straight up

that little nugget should bring everything to a close until the puck drops in October.

Fair enough, sir. 

 

Hadn't been aware that the two of you had been around and around on this issue before now.

 

Zadorov could pan out as a top pairing (or, more likely,a top 4) guy. But I'll trust the decision makers within the organization to have made that call -- I'm inferring that they saw it as a bad risk, especially when compared with the prospects of getting a ROR on board.

 

It's unhealthy #ManCrush territory to hold a flame for the guy. Mind you: There's nothing wrong with having a #ManCrush. I just don't think Z. was/is deserving of the same. Although I get it.

 

In a few years, his deal won't seem like an "over" payment at all as salaries continue to escalate. 

 

 

Maybe expansion will allow that to happen. Certainly the current trend of the Loonie will not.

Edited July 13, 2015 by That Aud Smell