TrueBlueGED Posted March 25, 2015 Report Share Posted March 25, 2015 Yotes twice, Toronto and Carolina...I could see Buffalo taking those 4 games. Let's also hope that Pitt will be playing for playoff positioning when we face them in the final game. Still not comfortable yet but that analysis definitely helps. I could see us winning any of those games...but not all of them. If you think we sweep those four then you're just not giving us enough credit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samson's Flow Posted March 25, 2015 Report Share Posted March 25, 2015 I could see us winning any of those games...but not all of them. If you think we sweep those four then you're just not giving us enough credit. Agreed. We are still the worst team in the league. It is a pretty low percentage that each of those individual events would go against us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woods-racer Posted March 25, 2015 Report Share Posted March 25, 2015 Take it up with the free man. But you have more pull around here, I am but a neophyte! Plus when you say it like this, I think Free Mason, and the big all seeing eye and get scared :cry: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polish Connection Posted March 25, 2015 Report Share Posted March 25, 2015 (edited) At some point, we're going to have to look at teams joining the shart at a lower level as more are eliminated from playoff contention, especially in the 8-11 range where the odds to get McDavid can double. In particular, San Jose has two games against the 'Yotes and we need them in tank mode before they're played. Non-Playoff Team (Fewest Pts. to Most) - Draft Lottery Odds - Current Team 1 - 20.00% - Sabres 2 - 13.50% - Coyotes 3 - 11.50% - Oilers 4 - 9.50% - Maple Leafs 5 - 8.50% - Hurricanes 6 - 7.50% - Blue Jackets 7 - 6.50% - Flyers 8 - 6.00% - Devils 9 - 5.00% - Sharks 10 - 3.50% - Avalanche 11 - 3.00% - Panthers 12 - 2.50% - Stars 13 - 2.00% - Bruins 14 - 1.00% - Kings Edited March 25, 2015 by Polish Connection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samson's Flow Posted March 25, 2015 Report Share Posted March 25, 2015 At some point, we're going to have to look at teams joining the shart at a lower level as more are eliminated from playoff contention, especially in the 8-11 range where the odds to get McDavid can double. In particular, San Jose has two games against the 'Yotes and we need them in tank mode before they're played. Non-Playoff Team (Fewest Pts. to Most) - Draft Lottery Odds - Current Team 1 - 20.00% - Sabres 2 - 13.50% - Coyotes 3 - 11.50% - Oilers 4 - 9.50% - Maple Leafs 5 - 8.50% - Hurricanes 6 - 7.50% - Blue Jackets 7 - 6.50% - Flyers 8 - 6.00% - Devils 9 - 5.00% - Sharks 10 - 3.50% - Avalanche 11 - 3.00% - Panthers 12 - 2.50% - Stars 13 - 2.00% - Bruins 14 - 1.00% - Kings I haven't looked at the odds beyond the top 5, but I wonder why the NHL has such a variable distribution from 4-14. Each change in position has a seemingly random change in odds from .50 to 2.0 Like why is there a 1% decrease each spot from 4 to 7, then all of a sudden 0.5%, 1.0% then 1.5% from 7 to 10. Seems rather arbitrary. :unsure: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pi2000 Posted March 25, 2015 Report Share Posted March 25, 2015 I, for one, will not rest easy until The Shart is locked up. A few motivational quotes for the Sabres as they enter the final stretch. "The will to prepare is important, but what's more important is the will to fail." - Bobby Knight "I am not afraid, I was born to do this." - Joan of Arc "To be a good winner, is to learn how to lose." - Carl Sandberg "Always give in, and always give up." - Hubert H. Humphrey "If you think you can't do it, you can't." - John Burroughs I haven't looked at the odds beyond the top 5, but I wonder why the NHL has such a variable distribution from 4-14. Each change in position has a seemingly random change in odds from .50 to 2.0 Like why is there a 1% decrease each spot from 4 to 7, then all of a sudden 0.5%, 1.0% then 1.5% from 7 to 10. Seems rather arbitrary. :unsure: Yeah, it's almost like they just made it up as they went down the list. "OK let's drop by 1%... good, OK, next, good, OK... wait, hold on, we're gonna run out of numbers, let's drop by 0.5%, OK, good, OK, next, hold on we have too many, let's drop by 1% again, OK, good, next, wait still too many, let's drop by 2.5% now, OK, hold on... wait not enough again, we'll go back to 0.5% OK, good, next...." Here's the way I would do it.... only the bottom 5 qualify for the lottery. Non-Playoff Team (Fewest Pts. to Most) - Draft Lottery Odds 1 - 99.9999% - Sabres 2 - 0.000025% - Coyotes 3 - 0.000025% - Oilers 4 - 0.000025% - Maple Leafs 5 - 0.000025% - Hurricanes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPie Posted March 25, 2015 Report Share Posted March 25, 2015 I haven't looked at the odds beyond the top 5, but I wonder why the NHL has such a variable distribution from 4-14. Each change in position has a seemingly random change in odds from .50 to 2.0 Like why is there a 1% decrease each spot from 4 to 7, then all of a sudden 0.5%, 1.0% then 1.5% from 7 to 10. Seems rather arbitrary. :unsure: Yeah, it's strange. But I'm guessing they too a smooth curve and then rounded things to 0.5% increments to keep the numbers easier. With 0.5% increments you could have 200 balls in the hopper. If you did 0.1% increments, you'd need 1000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samson's Flow Posted March 25, 2015 Report Share Posted March 25, 2015 Yeah, it's almost like they just made it up as they went down the list. "OK let's drop by 1%... good, OK, next, good, OK... wait, hold on, we're gonna run out of numbers, let's drop by 0.5%, OK, good, OK, next, hold on we have too many, let's drop by 1% again, OK, good, next, wait still too many, let's drop by 2.5% now, OK, hold on... wait not enough again, we'll go back to 0.5% OK, good, next...." I have a feeling that is exactly how they did it. That jump of 1.5% from 10th to 9th is worth losing a meaningless game at the end. It almost doubles your (slim) chances at McDavid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CallawaySabres Posted March 25, 2015 Report Share Posted March 25, 2015 You know what I think is strange......that really nobody here is willing to picture McDavid in a Sabes uni next year. I include myself in this thought process but starting today, I am going to look at it as Buffalo having the BEST chance to land McDavid out of any other team. McEichel has always translated to Eichel and I'm ready to start wondering what Connor could do for the organization. Eichel is an amazing consolation prize but why not get the positive vibes out for the chosen one. Connor McDavid WILL be a Buffalo Sabre in 2015. Say it with me folks - "Connor........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samson's Flow Posted March 25, 2015 Report Share Posted March 25, 2015 Yeah, it's strange. But I'm guessing they too a smooth curve and then rounded things to 0.5% increments to keep the numbers easier. With 0.5% increments you could have 200 balls in the hopper. If you did 0.1% increments, you'd need 1000. Then why the 1.5% jump from 10th to 9th when 8th to 7th has only a 0.5% increase? That's not even close to a smooth distribution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoss Posted March 25, 2015 Report Share Posted March 25, 2015 At some point, we're going to have to look at teams joining the shart at a lower level as more are eliminated from playoff contention, especially in the 8-11 range where the odds to get McDavid can double. In particular, San Jose has two games against the 'Yotes and we need them in tank mode before they're played. Non-Playoff Team (Fewest Pts. to Most) - Draft Lottery Odds - Current Team 1 - 20.00% - Sabres 2 - 13.50% - Coyotes 3 - 11.50% - Oilers 4 - 9.50% - Maple Leafs 5 - 8.50% - Hurricanes 6 - 7.50% - Blue Jackets 7 - 6.50% - Flyers 8 - 6.00% - Devils 9 - 5.00% - Sharks 10 - 3.50% - Avalanche 11 - 3.00% - Panthers 12 - 2.50% - Stars 13 - 2.00% - Bruins 14 - 1.00% - Kings The Shart isn't following the lottery... It's just about finishing last (or first). We can get the order later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPie Posted March 25, 2015 Report Share Posted March 25, 2015 Then why the 1.5% jump from 10th to 9th when 8th to 7th has only a 0.5% increase? That's not even close to a smooth distribution. I was going to say maybe it's just an artifact of the rounding process, but it's also possible that they looked at the numbers and decided that the team in 10th is normally only a handful of points out of a play-off spot and at that point those teams have a chance but it should be really small. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doohickie Posted March 25, 2015 Report Share Posted March 25, 2015 I was going to say maybe it's just an artifact of the rounding process, but it's also possible that they looked at the numbers and decided that the team in 10th is normally only a handful of points out of a play-off spot and at that point those teams have a chance but it should be really small. Yes, both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3putt Posted March 25, 2015 Report Share Posted March 25, 2015 I think GIonta came in with eyes wide open. They probably told him there'd be at least one terrible season and then the team would be on the upswing. A player of his credentials and quality can take that without crumbling and to be part of a new team build late in a career that takes several seasons can be pretty rewarding I would think. Bear in mind, though, that Gionta was brought in with that understanding. Doan has been with the Coyotes his whole career, including some good times. It must be tougher on him because he's all in on the Coyotes. So if they've down, he might question himself... is he part of the problem? Gionta isn't; he was brought in to be part of the solution. Doan could also be thinking the best waynto transition to the Yotes FO is to be a "team" player now. I have seen some decion making this past month that was very un-Doan like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polish Connection Posted March 25, 2015 Report Share Posted March 25, 2015 The Shart isn't following the lottery... It's just about finishing last (or first). We can get the order later. My main point is that Arizona has a H-H vs San Jose next weekend. I'd prefer they are playing a Sharks team that could go from a 3% to 6% chance at #1 instead of a team that's still alive for a playoff spot. Or one that's pretty much locked into whatever slot they are in and can play to win with no implications (wouldn't it be nice to lock it up in time to actually root for wins again?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qwksndmonster Posted March 25, 2015 Report Share Posted March 25, 2015 You know what I think is strange......that really nobody here is willing to picture McDavid in a Sabes uni next year. I include myself in this thought process but starting today, I am going to look at it as Buffalo having the BEST chance to land McDavid out of any other team. McEichel has always translated to Eichel and I'm ready to start wondering what Connor could do for the organization. Eichel is an amazing consolation prize but why not get the positive vibes out for the chosen one. Connor McDavid WILL be a Buffalo Sabre in 2015. Say it with me folks - "Connor........ I've been getting the McDavid chills a bit for the last month or so. Enjoy it for the next 3 weeks, while we still can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoss Posted March 25, 2015 Report Share Posted March 25, 2015 Mike Smith is starting for Arizona tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samson's Flow Posted March 25, 2015 Report Share Posted March 25, 2015 At some point, we're going to have to look at teams joining the shart at a lower level as more are eliminated from playoff contention, especially in the 8-11 range where the odds to get McDavid can double. In particular, San Jose has two games against the 'Yotes and we need them in tank mode before they're played. Non-Playoff Team (Fewest Pts. to Most) - Draft Lottery Odds - Current Team 1 - 20.00% - Sabres 2 - 15.00% - Coyotes 3 - 13.00% - Oilers 4 - 11.00% - Maple Leafs 5 - 9.50% - Hurricanes 6 - 8.00% - Blue Jackets 7 - 6.50% - Flyers 8 - 5.00% - Devils 9 - 4.00% - Sharks 10 - 3.00% - Avalanche 11 - 2.00% - Panthers 12 - 1.50% - Stars 13 - 1.00% - Bruins 14 - 0.50% - Kings So with the basic outline of 1st gets 20% chance and 14th gets the lowest chance, I would have done it as follows by breaking the odds changes into tiers 11-14 gets a 0.5% bump, 8-10 gets a 1% bump, 4-7 gets a 1.5% bump and 2-3 gets a 2% bump, and the top spot gets 20% (what amounts to a 5% bump). Disclaimer: This took me way longer than I thought it would, its a pain to get them all to add up to 100% while maintaining tiered additions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pi2000 Posted March 25, 2015 Report Share Posted March 25, 2015 So with the basic outline of 1st gets 20% chance and 14th gets the lowest chance, I would have done it as follows by breaking the odds changes into tiers 11-14 gets a 0.5% bump, 8-10 gets a 1% bump, 4-7 gets a 1.5% bump and 2-3 gets a 2% bump, and the top spot gets 20% (what amounts to a 5% bump). Disclaimer: This took me way longer than I thought it would, its a pain to get them all to add up to 100% while maintaining tiered additions. Nicely done. You're hired Mr. NHL Draft Lottery Commissioner. That said, what really really really really bothers me is the lack of transparency in the lottery process. From what I've been told (by the NHL): "Fourteen balls, numbered 1 to 14, are placed in a lottery machine. The machine expels four balls, forming a series of numbers. The four-digit series resulting from the expulsion of the balls is matched against a probability chart that divides the possible combinations among the 14 participating clubs." So when the numbers start coming up you will know if BUF is still in the running. Why not televise this? Why not make the probability chart public? Or at least make it available on-demand on NHL.com? What are they trying to hide!? WHO IS PICKING THE NUMBERS??!! WHO THE IS PICKING THE GODDAMN NUMBERS AND WHY CAN'T WE WATCH!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPie Posted March 25, 2015 Report Share Posted March 25, 2015 Nicely done. You're hired Mr. NHL Draft Lottery Commissioner. That said, what really really really really bothers me is the lack of transparency in the lottery process. From what I've been told (by the NHL): "Fourteen balls, numbered 1 to 14, are placed in a lottery machine. The machine expels four balls, forming a series of numbers. The four-digit series resulting from the expulsion of the balls is matched against a probability chart that divides the possible combinations among the 14 participating clubs." So when the numbers start coming up you will know if BUF is still in the running. Why not televise this? Why not make the probability chart public? Or at least make it available on-demand on NHL.com? What are they trying to hide!? WHO IS PICKING THE NUMBERS??!! WHO THE ###### IS PICKING THE GODDAMN NUMBERS AND WHY CAN'T WE WATCH!!! 14 balls? really? that's a really odd number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qwksndmonster Posted March 25, 2015 Report Share Posted March 25, 2015 (edited) Nicely done. You're hired Mr. NHL Draft Lottery Commissioner. That said, what really really really really bothers me is the lack of transparency in the lottery process. From what I've been told (by the NHL): "Fourteen balls, numbered 1 to 14, are placed in a lottery machine. The machine expels four balls, forming a series of numbers. The four-digit series resulting from the expulsion of the balls is matched against a probability chart that divides the possible combinations among the 14 participating clubs." So when the numbers start coming up you will know if BUF is still in the running. Why not televise this? Why not make the probability chart public? Or at least make it available on-demand on NHL.com? What are they trying to hide!? WHO IS PICKING THE NUMBERS??!! WHO THE ###### IS PICKING THE GODDAMN NUMBERS AND WHY CAN'T WE WATCH!!! :lol: :lol: :worthy: Edited March 25, 2015 by qwksndmonster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pi2000 Posted March 25, 2015 Report Share Posted March 25, 2015 Mike Smith is starting for Arizona tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPie Posted March 25, 2015 Report Share Posted March 25, 2015 Literally: :lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabresFanInRochester Posted March 25, 2015 Report Share Posted March 25, 2015 You know what I think is strange......that really nobody here is willing to picture McDavid in a Sabes uni next year. I include myself in this thought process but starting today, I am going to look at it as Buffalo having the BEST chance to land McDavid out of any other team. McEichel has always translated to Eichel and I'm ready to start wondering what Connor could do for the organization. Eichel is an amazing consolation prize but why not get the positive vibes out for the chosen one. Connor McDavid WILL be a Buffalo Sabre in 2015. Say it with me folks - "Connor........ When you look at it statistically, sure, we have an 80% chance of not seeing McDavid in a Sabres jersey next year. But, I have always looked at it from the standpoint of the PGA betting pools I would participate in. In his prime, Tiger Woods would have a 20% chance of winning a major, versus the rest of the field having the remaining 80%. He was still the favorite, but shitte happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlueGED Posted March 25, 2015 Report Share Posted March 25, 2015 Mike Smith is starting for Arizona tomorrow. I'd celebrate, but he's due to jump over a puck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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