Samson's Flow Posted April 15, 2014 Report Share Posted April 15, 2014 (edited) Speaking of gambler's fallacy. Poor misunderstood regression to the mean. I knew exactly what I meant. It was a joke to pile on to the "woe is me" Buffalo sports fan mantra. Note that I never said that the probability is any different than 25%, since it is fixed based on independent events. (Okay so it's actually slightly more than 25% given NJ's re-pick status) The further a set of draws has been from the mean, the greater the chance that the next draw (or set of future draws) will have a value (or mean for a set of draws) that will result in the overall sample mean being pulled in the direction of the true underlying mean. This is simply due to the fact that there are more possible outcomes between the current sample mean and the actual population mean. Consider rolling one die. You do it five times and get a sample mean of 4.2 (say, 2,5,6,5,3.) The real mean is 3.5, so 4 of 6 outcomes will pull you toward that population mean (i.e., the sample mean for the six points will be lower than 4.2.) If, instead, your first 5 had a sample mean of 5.2 (say, 3,6,5,6,6.) Then, 5 of 6 outcomes would pull you toward the population mean. Your chance of "regressing to the mean" is 83% instead of 66%, but the probability of rolling a 1 or a 2 or ... has not changed; still 1/6. The draws are independent, so the value of one (or more) cannot affect the probabilities for another. What Carp said... :worthy: Edited April 15, 2014 by Touched by Boyes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoss Posted April 15, 2014 Author Report Share Posted April 15, 2014 I mentioned this a while back, but if Buffalo loses the lottery it will be the first time the team has ever picked 2nd overall. As a matter of fact the team has never picked 2nd, 3rd or 4th. Always 1st or 5th in the top five. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shrader Posted April 15, 2014 Report Share Posted April 15, 2014 But it isn't. It is exactly 25%. Or actually slightly higher than that thanks to the Devils situation that Carp spelled out earlier. One other question came to mind when looking at the BS math used for those all time results. Were the odds always set at 25% for the worst team in the lottery. I feel like they've tweaked the numbers a bit over the years, and not just the "everyone can pick #1" change that happened last year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPie Posted April 15, 2014 Report Share Posted April 15, 2014 Maybe my google skills suck, but I can't seem to find anything online that states exactly what the league does. Whether it is computer simulation or drawing a random number from the ping pong ball setup. Either way, the process would bore or confuse just about anyone, so there is nothing worth airing on TV. This is always going to bring up the conspiracy theories, but it's impossible to avoid those. What's Yolanda up to, she'd spice things up! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shrader Posted April 15, 2014 Report Share Posted April 15, 2014 What's Yolanda up to, she'd spice things up! I am now picturing Carp dressed up as Yolanda Vega walking everyone through the probability chart they set up for the random number draw. Thanks for the image. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samson's Flow Posted April 15, 2014 Report Share Posted April 15, 2014 Or actually slightly higher than that thanks to the Devils situation that Carp spelled out earlier. One other question came to mind when looking at the BS math used for those all time results. Were the odds always set at 25% for the worst team in the lottery. I feel like they've tweaked the numbers a bit over the years, and not just the "everyone can pick #1" change that happened last year. True. I'd estimate that given only the top 5 teams could lotto themselves into the #1 slot previously, the odds of the top team maintaining the #1 pick would be much closer to the 30-40% range over the 10 year period from 2004-2014. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eleven Posted April 15, 2014 Report Share Posted April 15, 2014 They're not going to show anything because what they actually do would make almost no sense to anyone. It isn't as simple as one ball coming out of a machine with a team logo on it. In order to set that up, they'd have to have 1000 balls in the machine to produce the odds listed above. They're not wasting their time on that kind of setup. Maybe my google skills suck, but I can't seem to find anything online that states exactly what the league does. Whether it is computer simulation or drawing a random number from the ping pong ball setup. Either way, the process would bore or confuse just about anyone, so there is nothing worth airing on TV. This is always going to bring up the conspiracy theories, but it's impossible to avoid those. I think it would be a lot more fun to watch 1,000 ping pong balls bounce around an air chamber than it would to watch an accountant open an envelope. Even better: they take a football field, divide it into 1,000 squares, and send a cow out there. You know the rest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted April 15, 2014 Report Share Posted April 15, 2014 That's a given. The only question is if it will be the Leafs that jump ahead of us, the Canucks, the Oilers or the Canes. I am guessing a Canadian team wins the lottery magically. Not saying it is a conspiracy but that is how this will work itself out. No matter who wins I guarentee they take our guy because the Hockey Gods hate us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eleven Posted April 15, 2014 Report Share Posted April 15, 2014 I am guessing a Canadian team wins the lottery magically. Not saying it is a conspiracy but that is how this will work itself out. No matter who wins I guarentee they take our guy because the Hockey Gods hate us. There's a good chance that happens, almost 40%. Personally, I think Edmonton will win. They seem to be really good at this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shrader Posted April 15, 2014 Report Share Posted April 15, 2014 There's a good chance that happens, almost 40%. Personally, I think Edmonton will win. They seem to be really good at this. This reminds me of the classic argument every year that winning the Presidents' Trophy somehow weakens your chance at the cup. Well yeah, when you compare one single seed to 15 other slots, of course I'm going to bet the field on that one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eleven Posted April 15, 2014 Report Share Posted April 15, 2014 This reminds me of the classic argument every year that winning the Presidents' Trophy somehow weakens your chance at the cup. Well yeah, when you compare one single seed to 15 other slots, of course I'm going to bet the field on that one. Reminds me of that too. Last time I calculated it (2007), the President's Cup winner had won the Stanley Cup approximately 1/3 of the time. I'd still bet the field. Anyone want to give me even odds that Boston doesn't win? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shrader Posted April 15, 2014 Report Share Posted April 15, 2014 Reminds me of that too. Last time I calculated it (2007), the President's Cup winner had won the Stanley Cup approximately 1/3 of the time. I'd still bet the field. Anyone want to give me even odds that Boston doesn't win? Minor pet peeve alert: Presidents' Trophy It is named after several presidents and it is not a cup. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted April 15, 2014 Report Share Posted April 15, 2014 All I am saying is I would not be surprised if the league helped along one of the Canadian teams... like Winnipeg or Toronto. Just to ensure they kept producing money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eleven Posted April 15, 2014 Report Share Posted April 15, 2014 Minor pet peeve alert: Presidents' Trophy It is named after several presidents and it is not a cup. I should have had the trophy one; shame on me. I always forget whether it is singular or plural. All I am saying is I would not be surprised if the league helped along one of the Canadian teams... like Winnipeg or Toronto. Just to ensure they kept producing money. Too much to lose. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shrader Posted April 15, 2014 Report Share Posted April 15, 2014 All I am saying is I would not be surprised if the league helped along one of the Canadian teams... like Winnipeg or Toronto. Just to ensure they kept producing money. If bad hockey hurts the wallet of the Leafs, why didn't the league help them at any point in the last decade? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildCard Posted April 15, 2014 Report Share Posted April 15, 2014 I don't think such huge and devoted markets like the Leafs and Canadians are the one's the league has to worry about Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted April 15, 2014 Report Share Posted April 15, 2014 If bad hockey hurts the wallet of the Leafs, why didn't the league help them at any point in the last decade? I am not saying it hurt the leafs but giving them a top pick would certainly help them make the playoffs and sell even more merchandise. It can only be good for the league to have the top money franchise be good. Also with their mid season implosion and the addition of Shenanigans, my conspiracy side is kicking in lol :flirt: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carpandean Posted April 15, 2014 Report Share Posted April 15, 2014 I knew exactly what I meant. It was a joke to pile on to the "woe is me" Buffalo sports fan mantra. Note that I never said that the probability is any different than 25%, since it is fixed based on independent events. (Okay so it's actually slightly more than 25% given NJ's re-pick status) I initially misread your bag-head. But, hey, it gave me an excuse to spread some knowledge. :thumbsup: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doohickie Posted April 15, 2014 Report Share Posted April 15, 2014 11. NEW JERSEY - 0% (WILL DRAFT 30th)* Huh? WHy? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LastPommerFan Posted April 15, 2014 Report Share Posted April 15, 2014 11. NEW JERSEY - 0% (WILL DRAFT 30th)* Huh? WHy? Because Russia. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted April 15, 2014 Report Share Posted April 15, 2014 11. NEW JERSEY - 0% (WILL DRAFT 30th)* Huh? WHy? They were supposed to forfeit their 2014 1st round pick due the cap circumvention in the Kovalchuk contract, but the NHL lessened the penalty by giving them the 30th pick in the 1st round regardless of their regular season finish. Thus they cannot win the lottery and be awarded the 1st pick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sabres Fan in NS Posted April 15, 2014 Report Share Posted April 15, 2014 Because Russia. And a certain commie. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoss Posted April 15, 2014 Author Report Share Posted April 15, 2014 By the way, there aren't 1,000 balls bouncing around... The lottery system actually just has fourteen balls bouncing around. Then four balls come out which creates a combination. That combination is then matched with a combination that a team already had assigned to them. The higher your percentage, the more combinations you have. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LastPommerFan Posted April 15, 2014 Report Share Posted April 15, 2014 By the way, there aren't 1,000 balls bouncing around... The lottery system actually just has fourteen balls bouncing around. Then four balls come out which creates a combination. That combination is then matched with a combination that a team already had assigned to them. The higher your percentage, the more combinations you have. and audited by KMFDM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted April 15, 2014 Report Share Posted April 15, 2014 04/15 – Tim Murray speaks with Brian Duff prior to the NHL's draft lottery Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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