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Armia, Grigorenko, Number 1 Draft Pick


CallawaySabres

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Does this rebuild have to take as long as many think around here? It is a shame that Grigs has been damaged so badly because next year would have been a perfect time to bring him to the Sabres for the FIRST time. These 3 offense talents I have listed will have gigantic question marks but hopefully 2 out of the 3 will pan out to offer some offensive talent next year. Add someone else via trade and I think the majority of suffering should end by 2014. I think there will be plenty of losses next year as well but as far as true suffering/boredom goes, let's hope we see some more exciting hockey sooner than later......

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I think we have seen exactly zero to indicate that any of the 3 will accomplish anything in the NHL.

 

3 coaches have found Griggy wanting. Armia is on the 3rd line in Rochester. The upcoming draftee could easily wash out.

 

The good news is that Nolan has apparently had a very positive effect on a number of the players' mental states. The intensity and confidence have increased substantially. Defense looks decent and goaltending looks excellent. That will keep most games close.

 

They need to add at least 2 good forwards in the offseason via trade or FA. Callahan as a FA plus whatever real scorer pops loose. That, more than anything, will accelerate the rebuild.

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I think you're right. I think what DR had in mind and what PL/new GM pretty much have no choice in is to use this season to see what we've got and watching for improvement while dumping proven assets from the old core to get still more picks and prospects (the tank). Once we have an idea of what we have with some of these kids, that's when I think you see trades start to happen to fill holes. Whoever the new GM ends up being, he's bound to be more aggressive than DR was and he's going to have a ###### ton of currency to work with in terms of picks and prospects in order to bring in more NHL ready young talent. Combine all of that with what looks to be a sure fire shot at a top three pick this year and it's going to be fun to watch all the maneuvering. The only place from here is up.

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Girgs is the exception in that he is physically ready at age 19. And, lest we forget, it took him 2/3 of a season to figure things out in Rochester last year (i.e. give Armia time). The vast majority of players don't make a mark in the league until at least 21 or 22 years old. That's why I'm not fully on-board with the "tank" for a high pick strategy for a couple of reasons:

  1. I'm not sure fans truly want to wait half a decade to see improvement.
     
  2. We already have a ton of picks over the next two drafts plus a pile of prospects in the system right now who just need time (e.g. Compher is having a nice freshman season at Michigan, McCabe is playing well at Wisconsin, etc.).

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z gives me hope. z is becoming everything Goose never was.

 

the game has become about possession:

 

1. Get the puck

2. Keep the puck

3. get the puck on the sticks of decent shooters

4. hold late-June parade downtown

 

z is the kind of player that takes care of 1 and 2. 3 is just a matter of a GM creating the right mix around him and some others like him.

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I think you're right. I think what DR had in mind and what PL/new GM pretty much have no choice in is to use this season to see what we've got and watching for improvement while dumping proven assets from the old core to get still more picks and prospects (the tank). Once we have an idea of what we have with some of these kids, that's when I think you see trades start to happen to fill holes. Whoever the new GM ends up being, he's bound to be more aggressive than DR was and he's going to have a ###### ton of currency to work with in terms of picks and prospects in order to bring in more NHL ready young talent. Combine all of that with what looks to be a sure fire shot at a top three pick this year and it's going to be fun to watch all the maneuvering. The only place from here is up.

 

We've cashed in almost all of our assets for picks and young players, which are highly movable. We've got so much to spend, movable asset-wise and salary-wise, plus we're a traditional hockey market with impassioned fans, that this GM job really is going to be some AGM's wet dream.

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I am fully prepared to get hammered for suggesting this but here it goes. You have the defensive prospects in place. You have the goalie in place (you must convince him to sign). You have numbers accumulating in your forward prospects. We don't need 10 more draft picks hoping to get a few good players.

 

Trade the #1 pick if we have it. There is no franchise changing #1 this year. This year's #1 is last year's #5-8. Trade it to the highest bidder for proven NHL ready offensive talent. This tells the fans, Miller, and possible FA's that we are back in business.

 

There are plenty of other ways to turn this thing around quicker and with less risk than counting on some top draft picks.

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I am fully prepared to get hammered for suggesting this but here it goes. You have the defensive prospects in place. You have the goalie in place (you must convince him to sign). You have numbers accumulating in your forward prospects. We don't need 10 more draft picks hoping to get a few good players.

 

Trade the #1 pick if we have it. There is no franchise changing #1 this year. This year's #1 is last year's #5-8. Trade it to the highest bidder for proven NHL ready offensive talent. This tells the fans, Miller, and possible FA's that we are back in business.

 

There are plenty of other ways to turn this thing around quicker and with less risk than counting on some top draft picks.

What would you trade it for? Specifically I am looking for a name/player type. Saying we should trade the #1 pick for proven talent is just as weak as saying we should keep the #1 pick because we can draft proven talent. We don't know what we could trade the pick for. We don't yet know how good the draft will be. If you trade the pick of that caliber it has to be for the exact right player. Young enough to have years ahead of them but just old enough to be tested and proven nhl talent.

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We have a first (which is likely to be a top-3 pick) plus 3 seconds in the 2014 draft. We have two more firsts (assuming the Isles defer to 2015) and three more seconds in the 2015 draft. That's a ton of upcoming picks to go with the 2 firsts (Grigo, Girgs) and a second (McCabe) from 2012 and 2 firsts (Risto, Zadarov) and 3 seconds (Compher, Hurley, Bailey) from this year's draft.

 

We should find at least a few quality NHLers from all these picks. A new GM has to like what he sees walking into this job. We have a ton of picks and a ton of cap space... and some very good prospects in the pipeline. Good problem to have. I'd like to see us take a shot at signing a couple of veteran UFAs (perhaps Miller, Otter or Moulson), but of course, they would have to want to play here...

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We've cashed in almost all of our assets for picks and young players, which are highly movable. We've got so much to spend, movable asset-wise and salary-wise, plus we're a traditional hockey market with impassioned fans, that this GM job really is going to be some AGM's wet dream.

 

You'd think. The situation here is somewhat remarkable in that the franchise is primed for a rebuild from every direction with virtually limitless resources, capability, and enthusiasm. They just need to assemble the team that won't f&$k it up.

 

 

 

I've said it before and I will say it again. Grigorenko is improving and will continue to improve. Because a 19yr is not NHL ready does not mean he is a bust or should be discarded.

 

Agreed. I think most lucid fans see the situation for what it is.

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Girgs is the exception in that he is physically ready at age 19. And, lest we forget, it took him 2/3 of a season to figure things out in Rochester last year (i.e. give Armia time). The vast majority of players don't make a mark in the league until at least 21 or 22 years old. That's why I'm not fully on-board with the "tank" for a high pick strategy for a couple of reasons:

  1. I'm not sure fans truly want to wait half a decade to see improvement.
     
  2. We already have a ton of picks over the next two drafts plus a pile of prospects in the system right now who just need time (e.g. Compher is having a nice freshman season at Michigan, McCabe is playing well at Wisconsin, etc.).

 

 

It's not just quantity of picks, ppl supporting the tank want quality picks.

 

For the record I'm not saying this has to take a decade to turn around. In fact, by tanking this year and especially next year, it should actually speed up the rebuild IMO.

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What would you trade it for? Specifically I am looking for a name/player type. Saying we should trade the #1 pick for proven talent is just as weak as saying we should keep the #1 pick because we can draft proven talent. We don't know what we could trade the pick for. We don't yet know how good the draft will be. If you trade the pick of that caliber it has to be for the exact right player. Young enough to have years ahead of them but just old enough to be tested and proven nhl talent.

 

I have no clue what player. I have not dug into it that deep.. I am simply saying that I would keep the option open. Age wise 22-25. Maybe a center on a team who has a solid 1&2 already ahead of them in the system that could come in here and be a legit #1 from day one.

 

My thinking is we need so much NHL level talent that we have to consider all options. We don't have many assets left. That pick would be an asset and COULD net us a pretty big haul. If we want to be competitive in 4-5 years keep these picks. If we want to make it 2-3 years then we are going to need to move them.

 

The theory of the top picks is great but the reality is its risky as hell.

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I think it will work like this:

 

2013-14: we suck

2014-15: we are still very bad but look at all the hope!

2015-16: wow! we could be a playoff team!

2016-17: Yay!! We won a series!!! (or 2)

2017-18: Buffalo Sabres Engraved in Silver

 

so is that a 3 year turnaround or a 5? not sure on where the line is.

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I think it will work like this:

 

2013-14: we suck

2014-15: we are still very bad but look at all the hope!

2015-16: wow! we could be a playoff team!

2016-17: Yay!! We won a series!!! (or 2)

2017-18: Buffalo Sabres Engraved in Silver

 

so is that a 3 year turnaround or a 5? not sure on where the line is.

 

Well if you consider under your scenario that 15-16 puts us right where we were with the old core in the recent past then it's a two year turnaround.

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I've said it before and I will say it again. Grigorenko is improving and will continue to improve. Because a 19yr is not NHL ready does not mean he is a bust or should be discarded.

 

I completely agree that he can't be deemed a bust at this point. However, I also think that no one should assume that he is a future pillar of the franchise or even a good top 2 center. So if you want the Sabres to target a return to the playoffs next year or the year after, you need to construct a roster that doesn't rely on him (or Armia).

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I have no clue what player. I have not dug into it that deep.. I am simply saying that I would keep the option open. Age wise 22-25. Maybe a center on a team who has a solid 1&2 already ahead of them in the system that could come in here and be a legit #1 from day one.

 

 

So Cody Hodgson at the 2012 deadline?

 

In all seriousness, with no franchise player in play, the number one pick has to be available.

I just don't think any of the offers are going to look more attractive than Reinhart.

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I completely agree that he can't be deemed a bust at this point. However, I also think that no one should assume that he is a future pillar of the franchise or even a good top 2 center. So if you want the Sabres to target a return to the playoffs next year or the year after, you need to construct a roster that doesn't rely on him (or Armia).

Agreed. That is one of the reasons we need to add talent at forward. Be it established talent or draft talent.

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I think it will work like this:

 

2013-14: we suck

2014-15: we are still very bad but look at all the hope!

2015-16: wow! we could be a playoff team!

2016-17: Yay!! We won a series!!! (or 2)

2017-18: Buffalo Sabres Engraved in Silver

 

so is that a 3 year turnaround or a 5? not sure on where the line is.

 

Pretty much how I have been seeing it. Where will miller be during this is still the big question. Hey, who has Miller's email address, let's see what he thinks of this timeframe......

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It's not just quantity of picks, ppl supporting the tank want quality picks.

 

 

Personally, I'm a believer that quantity is the best way to ensure quality given the uncertainty involved with player development. Plus, we're pretty much guaranteed a top-5 pick this year already!

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Pretty much how I have been seeing it. Where will miller be during this is still the big question. Hey, who has Miller's email address, let's see what he thinks of this timeframe......

 

I don't think there's a question. Miller was born in the wrong year to be part of this process. He is a late first round pick.

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