Armia, Grigorenko, Number 1 Draft Pick

[sicknfla]

 

 

So Cody Hodgson at the 2012 deadline?

 

In all seriousness, with no franchise player in play, the number one pick has to be available.

I just don't think any of the offers are going to look more attractive than Reinhart.

 

Hodgson for Kassian isn't exactly equal to the #1 overall pick but I get your point.

[LGR4GM]

Hodgson for Kassian isn't exactly equal to the #1 overall pick but I get your point.

The price/value of that #1 pick is impossible to determine. It depends on how teams value the players in this draft (Ekblad/Reinhart?Other) and how they value their assets. I agree we should be open to the idea of moving that pick but its value is very hard to determine at this moment in time.

[Derrico]

Personally, I'm a believer that quantity is the best way to ensure quality given the uncertainty involved with player development. Plus, we're pretty much guaranteed a top-5 pick this year already!

 

This is true lol.

[TrueBlueGED]

So Cody Hodgson at the 2012 deadline?

 

In all seriousness, with no franchise player in play, the number one pick has to be available.

I just don't think any of the offers are going to look more attractive than Reinhart.

 

I think you nailed it. Why would a team whose window of contention is currently open for a few years trade a top line player for a prospect, even a prospect that projects to the first line? Even if they're in cap trouble (like say, the Rangers), why in the world would we want 34 year old Brad Richards given the state of our franchise? A team looking to kick start their own rebuild might want to jettison some vets for the pick...but again, why do we want some rebuilding team's vets when we're in the situation we're in?

 

I just don't see a potential trade out there that makes a whole ton of sense for two parties to complete a deal. Maybe something like a Yakupov-Ekblad swap? But even then, would we rather have Yakupov than Reinhart? Definitely not a clear answer either way.

[tom webster]

Just let it accelerate next offseason. Please. I will give you a piece of a candy if you just let it wait until next offseason.

 

Why can't we have our cake and eat it too? Let Buffalo get good faster, let the Islanders defer and then suck real bad and Buffalo gets exciting hockey and a shot at McDavid.

 

Which is exactly why I don't think New York defers unless they get the 1st or 2nd pick this year.

[nucci]

Does this rebuild have to take as long as many think around here? It is a shame that Grigs has been damaged so badly because next year would have been a perfect time to bring him to the Sabres for the FIRST time. These 3 offense talents I have listed will have gigantic question marks but hopefully 2 out of the 3 will pan out to offer some offensive talent next year. Add someone else via trade and I think the majority of suffering should end by 2014. I think there will be plenty of losses next year as well but as far as true suffering/boredom goes, let's hope we see some more exciting hockey sooner than later......

A good GM will all these picks and potentially a ton of cap space could make this team competitive fairly quickly.

[tom webster]

I've said it before and I will say it again. Grigorenko is improving and will continue to improve. Because a 19yr is not NHL ready does not mean he is a bust or should be discarded.

 

I agree that it is early and anything is possible but I can't think of a situation where a player that turned into a #1 center started out as bad as he has. Turgeon, Thornton, they started slow but you could see glimpses of what was to come. I am sure someone will come up with an example but I can't think of a player who showed so little that developed into a star.

[TrueBlueGED]

I agree that it is early and anything is possible but I can't think of a situation where a player that turned into a #1 center started out as bad as he has. Turgeon, Thornton, they started slow but you could see glimpses of what was to come. I am sure someone will come up with an example but I can't think of a player who showed so little that developed into a star.

 

The flip side of the chicken-egg argument, is how many potential #1 centers are given as little opportunity as Grigs has been given? Has he spent more than a microsecond with offensively talented players? I think the best he's had are Ott and Leino.

[Derrico]

The flip side of the chicken-egg argument, is how many potential #1 centers are given as little opportunity as Grigs has been given? Has he spent more than a microsecond with offensively talented players? I think the best he's had are Ott and Leino.

 

Ya, which goes back to us not even having true top 6 players on this team except maybe Hodgson and Moulson. It will be huge if we can land a guy like Reinhart. He may not be the next Stamkos, Crosby et al but he is still a real talent none-the-less and may help make Grigs a better player.

[nfreeman]

The flip side of the chicken-egg argument, is how many potential #1 centers are given as little opportunity as Grigs has been given? Has he spent more than a microsecond with offensively talented players? I think the best he's had are Ott and Leino.

 

He's gotten some PP time and hasn't done anything with it.

[CallawaySabres]

At the very least, the point of this thread was to start injecting some positivity into this team as I am beginning to feel better about the future (especially after seeing how many names are being thrown around in the GM search.) Can you imagine this city if ( I mean when) the Bills AND the Sabres are going to be going to the playoffs in the same year. It's comin' folks, it's comin'......

[TrueBlueGED]

He's gotten some PP time and hasn't done anything with it.

 

A whopping 17 minutes of PP time this year...with Ott and Stafford. Normalized for ice time, his scoring rate on the PP (yes, his triumphant 1 assist) is 4th best on the team among forwards.

[Eleven]

I am fully prepared to get hammered for suggesting this but here it goes. You have the defensive prospects in place. You have the goalie in place (you must convince him to sign). You have numbers accumulating in your forward prospects. We don't need 10 more draft picks hoping to get a few good players.

 

Trade the #1 pick if we have it. There is no franchise changing #1 this year. This year's #1 is last year's #5-8. Trade it to the highest bidder for proven NHL ready offensive talent. This tells the fans, Miller, and possible FA's that we are back in business.

 

There are plenty of other ways to turn this thing around quicker and with less risk than counting on some top draft picks.

 

I'm with you 100%.

 

I think it will work like this:

 

2013-14: we suck

2014-15: we are still very bad but look at all the hope!

2015-16: wow! we could be a playoff team!

2016-17: Yay!! We won a series!!! (or 2)

2017-18: Buffalo Sabres Engraved in Silver

 

so is that a 3 year turnaround or a 5? not sure on where the line is.

Well if you consider under your scenario that 15-16 puts us right where we were with the old core in the recent past then it's a two year turnaround.

 

3, because it started last year. And it's still too long. Montreal did it overnight.

[nfreeman]

A whopping 17 minutes of PP time this year...with Ott and Stafford. Normalized for ice time, his scoring rate on the PP (yes, his triumphant 1 assist) is 4th best on the team among forwards.

 

So -- 25 or so shifts on the PP, right? That sounds like a respectable opportunity.

[tom webster]

The flip side of the chicken-egg argument, is how many potential #1 centers are given as little opportunity as Grigs has been given? Has he spent more than a microsecond with offensively talented players? I think the best he's had are Ott and Leino.

 

That's is all I am holding onto but it still doesn't changed the fact that I have not seen one shift where I said, wow, this kid has it.

[Claude_Verret]

 

3, because it started last year. And it's still too long. Montreal did it overnight.

 

Ok, 2.25 then. Last year was only half a season, and they only finally committed to the rebuilding/tanking process about half way through it.

[Derrico]

3, because it started last year. And it's still too long. Montreal did it overnight.

 

What did that get them other than a first round elimination? I want to be really really good after this 3 year rebuild. I hate losing but if it means top end picks in the next two drafts combined with our large quantity of selections then I'm all in for a full, complete rebuild and skip the fast track.

[TrueBlueGED]

3, because it started last year. And it's still too long. Montreal did it overnight.

 

You could also argue that Montreal was in a much better starting position than the Sabres, and that their bottoming out season was more of an aberration than a representation of the state of the franchise (after all, the Habs did do something in the playoffs just before their tank season).

 

I guess I just think the "respectable team -> tank 1 season -> respectable team" model is more the exception than the norm for rebuilds.

 

So -- 25 or so shifts on the PP, right? That sounds like a respectable opportunity.

 

Why ignore the rest of what I said? On the PP, relative to the opportunity given, he's produced better than all but three other forwards; yet he's 8th among forwards in PP minutes. Plus he's also only played in 3/11 games that Nolan has coached.

 

I'm with you that he hasn't exactly seized the moment, but I strongly disagree that he's had a genuine opportunity to succeed.

[sicknfla]

 

 

What did that get them other than a first round elimination? I want to be really really good after this 3 year rebuild. I hate losing but if it means top end picks in the next two drafts combined with our large quantity of selections then I'm all in for a full, complete rebuild and skip the fast track.

 

the part you are missing is the draft is a complete roll of the dice and only small part of putting together a championship caliber team. Yes, a few top picks like Kane and Toews is a great jump start. However, Chicago is Chicago because of great trades, FA signings, and overall decision making. We could end up being Edmonton just as easy as Chicago.

 

Then what??? 4 years from now you say "that didn't work" and start over again?

[LastPommerFan]

He's gotten some PP time and hasn't done anything with it.

 

you guys are seriously going to let this go?

[Derrico]

the part you are missing is the draft is a complete roll of the dice and only small part of putting together a championship caliber team. Yes, a few top picks like Kane and Toews is a great jump start. However, Chicago is Chicago because of great trades, FA signings, and overall decision making. We could end up being Edmonton just as easy as Chicago.

 

Then what??? 4 years from now you say "that didn't work" and start over again?

 

The top 3 picks in next years draft is not a roll of the dice.

 

It obviously takes more than just the draft but take a look at the teams who won a cup. How many are home grown with a key contributor being taken at the top end of the draft? Nearly all of them. It's a hugh piece of the puzzle not a small part.

[Hoss]

the part you are missing is the draft is a complete roll of the dice and only small part of putting together a championship caliber team. Yes, a few top picks like Kane and Toews is a great jump start. However, Chicago is Chicago because of great trades, FA signings, and overall decision making. We could end up being Edmonton just as easy as Chicago.

 

Then what??? 4 years from now you say "that didn't work" and start over again?

 

Sure, we could end up being Edmonton. Or we could end up letting somebody else become Chicago on our behalf by trading our picks. There's another side to each way of thinking. We have to decide which route we want to go. Luckily, we can mix both considering we'll have so many young assets piled up. In a few years, we'll HAVE to sell off a few of them for money/logjam reasons.

[nfreeman]

You could also argue that Montreal was in a much better starting position than the Sabres, and that their bottoming out season was more of an aberration than a representation of the state of the franchise (after all, the Habs did do something in the playoffs just before their tank season).

 

I guess I just think the "respectable team -> tank 1 season -> respectable team" model is more the exception than the norm for rebuilds.

 

 

 

Why ignore the rest of what I said? On the PP, relative to the opportunity given, he's produced better than all but three other forwards; yet he's 8th among forwards in PP minutes. Plus he's also only played in 3/11 games that Nolan has coached.

 

I'm with you that he hasn't exactly seized the moment, but I strongly disagree that he's had a genuine opportunity to succeed.

 

Well, I guess I figured that you were semi-joking with the 1-assist extrapolation. And certainly finishing relatively high, on an extrapolated basis, among this group of forwards isn't much of an accomplishment.

 

I guess I think that 25 PP shifts is a legit opportunity to succeed -- and that if he'd shown more during those shifts he'd have gotten more ice time. Again, this isn't to say that he won't improve over time and develop into a good player in a few years.

[TrueBlueGED]

Well, I guess I figured that you were semi-joking with the 1-assist extrapolation. And certainly finishing relatively high, on an extrapolated basis, among this group of forwards isn't much of an accomplishment.

 

I guess I think that 25 PP shifts is a legit opportunity to succeed -- and that if he'd shown more during those shifts he'd have gotten more ice time. Again, this isn't to say that he won't improve over time and develop into a good player in a few years.

 

I was half-joking in the sense that it's of course absurd to take a stance "he had 1 assist in limited time, feed him more!" My point was rather the inverse of that: other players are getting fed ice time upon ice time, and not doing a damn thing with it...and get fed more ice time. Meanwhile, Grigs doesn't do much of anything with his ice time, and he gets a ticket to the press box. On the worst team in the league that should be all about developing kids (or at least trying to figure out what they have), this approach seems insane to me.

[repster]

Why can't we have our cake and eat it too? Let Buffalo get good faster, let the Islanders defer and then suck real bad and Buffalo gets exciting hockey and a shot at McDavid.

 

Which is exactly why I don't think New York defers unless they get the 1st or 2nd pick this year.

 

I can only hope that the Islanders continue to plummet. If they get to pick between 1-5 in this year's draft, I think they would for sure defer that pick to next year, 6-10, they might think about it. The 2015 draft is supposed to be a real good draft compared to this one, and it would be a real stupid move on their part to pass up their only shot at McDavid and give the Sabres another shot. Now, this is the Islanders we're talking about, so... The more I read about him, the more he sounds like the next star in this league. If we can draft a true franchise player, this can really make the recruitment problem or perceived problem a thing of the past. This would not be the next Oilers #1 type, this guy can turn this franchise around and help this team attract other free agent talent. I hope this is when is all starts to come together quickly, so I need the Sabres not to upgrade too quickly and screw up the best chance to get him. Funny how this is the first year I haven't had access to the Sabres, (since I am now in the Canadian local market and don't have Bell like about 2 of every 3 households up here) and had chosen not to get NHLCI this year before the season started. Now I couldn't even watch all the games even if I wanted to. Black better get them on cable up here in a few years. Until then, I will make use of my mini-pack and catch the odd game of TSN or TSN2.