thewookie1 Posted June 27, 2014 Report Share Posted June 27, 2014 Take Ekblad. Start gauging the value of your other dmen to see when your next pick will be. I'd still trade Ekblad in the end, Risto is already a year ahead of Ekblad in development and Zadorov has already shown flashes of being great. Ekblad to me is lesser than either of those two so unless you can get a killing for Ruhwedal, Pysyk, or McCabe I'd just deal Ekblad to the highest bidder. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlueGED Posted June 27, 2014 Report Share Posted June 27, 2014 Whoever they get tomorrow had better be substantially better than Vanek. If you still think Nash is substantially better than Vanek, then I think our #2 overall selection is all but guaranteed to meet your criteria :ph34r: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoss Posted June 27, 2014 Report Share Posted June 27, 2014 I'd still trade Ekblad in the end, Risto is already a year ahead of Ekblad in development and Zadorov has already shown flashes of being great. Ekblad to me is lesser than either of those two so unless you can get a killing for Ruhwedal, Pysyk, or McCabe I'd just deal Ekblad to the highest bidder. Ekblad is a better prospect than those two, easily. Only reason some would rather have Risto/Zadorov is the attachment factor. I would be fine if we took Ekblad and traded Risto, but I meant that they'd gauge the value of Myers/Ehrhoff more than those kids. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewookie1 Posted June 27, 2014 Report Share Posted June 27, 2014 Ekblad is a better prospect than those two, easily. Only reason some would rather have Risto/Zadorov is the attachment factor. I would be fine if we took Ekblad and traded Risto, but I meant that they'd gauge the value of Myers/Ehrhoff more than those kids. Aah ok. I actually think Risto is better than Ekblad frankly. Zadorov is more of a toss up. Risto really impressed me after the whole minors stint not to mention the WJC game winner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabresBillsFan Posted June 27, 2014 Report Share Posted June 27, 2014 It wouldn't shock me if they took Ekblad and moved a couple of 2nds and a d-man for a center. Wow could you imagine the defense pairing with all that we have and I'm not talking about Chad Ruewedel in that mix. Should be interesting tomorrow. I think they are going to be working the phones big time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlueGED Posted June 27, 2014 Report Share Posted June 27, 2014 http://www.theoilersrig.com/tag/edmonton-oilers/ Probably the best overall statistical take I've read on this year's class. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Buffalo Posted June 27, 2014 Author Report Share Posted June 27, 2014 (edited) http://www.theoilers...dmonton-oilers/ Probably the best overall statistical take I've read on this year's class. Heckuv an interesting read, so I am now officially off the Reinhardt bandwagon and probably just jumped on the Bennett one. The other question is whether any of those lower rated forwards make it towards the back into the 1st round, or early 2nd for another Sabre pick. Except Goldobin, Sabres don't need a questionably motivated Russian to go along with Grigs. If I were considering a Russian to help motivate Grigs then I go after Barbashev. If the Sabres take Draisaitl then I assume they keeping Erhoff for another year to mentor the German makes sense. Hmm 12 hours to go. Edited June 27, 2014 by Icehole Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huckleberry Posted June 27, 2014 Report Share Posted June 27, 2014 Barbashev won't drop to 2nd round, Kamenev will be there though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sabre snipe Posted June 27, 2014 Report Share Posted June 27, 2014 Heckuv an interesting read, so I am now officially off the Reinhardt bandwagon and probably just jumped on the Bennett one. The other question is whether any of those lower rated forwards make it towards the back into the 1st round, or early 2nd for another Sabre pick. Except Goldobin, Sabres don't need a questionably motivated Russian to go along with Grigs. If I were considering a Russian to help motivate Grigs then I go after Barbashev. If the Sabres take Draisaitl then I assume they keeping Erhoff for another year to mentor the German makes sense. Hmm 12 hours to go. Yep a couple of us were arguing the even strength points and points per 60 minutes stats the other day on here -- Bennett is at the top and reinhart is quite a ways below him. I also found it interesting that Bennett didn't have a single EN goal or assist...bad luck or was he not on the ice? His point totals are a little more impressive in that regard (reinhart had 6). This analysis also puts more value in the younger player, which I've tended to do also. this article agrees with me that Bennett is the best forward in this draft but obviously it doesn't take intangibles into the equation and scouts are paid for a reason. Still I wouldn't be surprised if we took him. Can it be 730 jeez Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Claude_Verret Posted June 27, 2014 Report Share Posted June 27, 2014 Whoever they get tomorrow had better be substantially better than Vanek. Agreed. Today is why they tanked. Don't F it up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoss Posted June 27, 2014 Report Share Posted June 27, 2014 Barbashev won't drop to 2nd round, Kamenev will be there though. Most late mocks have Barbashev in the very late first. Decent shot he slips. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
X. Benedict Posted June 27, 2014 Report Share Posted June 27, 2014 Worst case scenario come tomorrow evening... If the Sabres somehow end up with Ekblad, meaning they passed on one of the "Sam's", I may end up throwing a brick through my TV. Probably there are people from 1982 in Minnesota that said "if they draft Scott Stevens I'll throw a brick through the radio" We need a center like Ron Sutter. :beer: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huckleberry Posted June 27, 2014 Report Share Posted June 27, 2014 (edited) Most late mocks have Barbashev in the very late first. Decent shot he slips. Still need to trade up though (for barbashev), my biggest fear is Florida trading their pick to Vancouver , if that happens no Reinhart for us for sure. Edited June 27, 2014 by Heimdall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost of Dwight Drane Posted June 27, 2014 Report Share Posted June 27, 2014 Most late mocks have Barbashev in the very late first. Decent shot he slips. There's a better chance he goes at 15 than 31. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rasmus_ Posted June 27, 2014 Report Share Posted June 27, 2014 Draft day! Finally. Getting my wings after work, and settling in. Ready to view all the craziness! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rakish Posted June 27, 2014 Report Share Posted June 27, 2014 A few thoughts on the Edmonton link which is here There are three main problems with their analysis. First, they don't account for size. Virtanen is prototypical NHL size, and should go off the board well before half of the prospects on his list. Ekblad isn't loved for his scoring, he's loved for his scoring by a big man. Is he a better pick than DeAngelo(who the writer didn't bother to note, using this method, would be the best player in this draft)? Of course Ekblad is a better pick, Ekblad should go 4th, not 8th or 9th, whatever he has Ekblad at. Second, they are modelling based upon thin air. They believe that even strength scoring is the key to finding talent, or scoring per 60 minutes, or whatever. This is based upon? A hunch? If they spent the effort (and actually had the stats) for Gilbert Brule, and were making the argument, this is why you don't pick xxxx, because he's like Brule. Instead, they have a new stat than has no basis as to how it works. They don't even take the time to argue something like "This works because the LA Kings beat the hell out of people in even strength minutes" Thirdly, age isn't a straight line. Being born in November (like Reinhart) seems to be worse than being born in January, it isn't. It actually isn't very far from being born in June (like Bennett). This is actually just the second problem again, because they haven't bothered to correlate age to success, they just have a hunch it's important. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted June 27, 2014 Report Share Posted June 27, 2014 Just saw a mock by an actual hockey writer. Completely disagree with just about every pick he has the Sabres make. #2 Reinhart #31 Anthony DeAngelo 5'11 168lbs #39 Alex Nedeljkovic Goaltender #49 Spencer Watson 5'10 170lbs I bring this up because I see a vital flaw. First Murray has said mutiple times the sabres need to get bigger but they draft 2 smaller players in the second. The second part is really? a GT in round 2? That guy would be there in round 3, and probably 5. This mock pretty much represents my worst case scenario at the draft outside of the #2 pick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlueGED Posted June 27, 2014 Report Share Posted June 27, 2014 A few thoughts on the Edmonton link which is here There are three main problems with their analysis. First, they don't account for size. Virtanen is prototypical NHL size, and should go off the board well before half of the prospects on his list. Ekblad isn't loved for his scoring, he's loved for his scoring by a big man. Is he a better pick than DeAngelo(who the writer didn't bother to note, using this method, would be the best player in this draft)? Of course Ekblad is a better pick, Ekblad should go 4th, not 8th or 9th, whatever he has Ekblad at. Second, they are modelling based upon thin air. They believe that even strength scoring is the key to finding talent, or scoring per 60 minutes, or whatever. This is based upon? A hunch? If they spent the effort (and actually had the stats) for Gilbert Brule, and were making the argument, this is why you don't pick xxxx, because he's like Brule. Instead, they have a new stat than has no basis as to how it works. They don't even take the time to argue something like "This works because the LA Kings beat the hell out of people in even strength minutes" Thirdly, age isn't a straight line. Being born in November (like Reinhart) seems to be worse than being born in January, it isn't. It actually isn't very far from being born in June (like Bennett). This is actually just the second problem again, because they haven't bothered to correlate age to success, they just have a hunch it's important. On your second point, there has been plenty of research done on the value of even strength statistics at the NHL level. The article may not cite everything, but it's not just a hunch. Even strength stats are the most consistent over time, and thus, have the best predictive power. A lot of that consistency has to due with the much larger sample sizes, but even then, there's reason to believe that special teams are more subject to luck than even strength play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Sloth Posted June 27, 2014 Report Share Posted June 27, 2014 Draft is a little over 9 hours away! Excited to see what Murray and company pull off. Many things can happen. Can't believe how pumped I am for an NHL draft. Let's go Murray!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted June 27, 2014 Report Share Posted June 27, 2014 Well if we go by even strength scoring: Bennett - 1.04ppg, 0.44g Reinhart - 1.08ppg, 0.37g Draisaitl - 0.98ppg, 0.39g Those are the top 3 forwards even strength scoring stats. Interestingly Bennett is the best at even strength. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trettioåtta Posted June 27, 2014 Report Share Posted June 27, 2014 I'm gonna miss the draft (rehearsal for a wedding tomorrow) and because I am in San Jose I can't even get 3G on my phone. This evening is going to be a busy one... It will be a shame to miss the trades and picks as they happen. I want a Sam, I just can't decide which one. Hopefully we use this draft, not just the picks, to really establish ourselves for the future Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eleven Posted June 27, 2014 Report Share Posted June 27, 2014 I'm gonna miss the draft (rehearsal for a wedding tomorrow) and because I am in San Jose I can't even get 3G on my phone. This evening is going to be a busy one... It will be a shame to miss the trades and picks as they happen. I want a Sam, I just can't decide which one. Hopefully we use this draft, not just the picks, to really establish ourselves for the future You're gonna miss the draft and the England game? Oh, wait... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlueGED Posted June 27, 2014 Report Share Posted June 27, 2014 You're gonna miss the draft and the England game? Oh, wait... That's cold man, cold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rakish Posted June 27, 2014 Report Share Posted June 27, 2014 On your second point, there has been plenty of research done on the value of even strength statistics at the NHL level. The article may not cite everything, but it's not just a hunch. Even strength stats are the most consistent over time, and thus, have the best predictive power. A lot of that consistency has to due with the much larger sample sizes, but even then, there's reason to believe that special teams are more subject to luck than even strength play. I'm not against the use of the stat, I'm against the value he puts on it. Points are important, points are consistent over time, you cannot draft purely on points, because other things matter, how much? you can guess, sure, but he's constructing a model out of his butt. Even strength points are exactly the same, how much does it matter? You are guessing until you can model stats at 17 to NHL success. They don't bother. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peppy22 Posted June 27, 2014 Report Share Posted June 27, 2014 Well if we go by even strength scoring: Bennett - 1.04ppg, 0.44g Reinhart - 1.08ppg, 0.37g Draisaitl - 0.98ppg, 0.39g Those are the top 3 forwards even strength scoring stats. Interestingly Bennett is the best at even strength. and still in buffalo the numbers could be Bennett 0.32ppg Reinhart 1.68ppg Draisaitl 1.33ppg You never know that kind of stuff.... depends on linemates ... good tema or bad team. system the team plays.... Bennett could put up 50 goals for buffalo next year and might would only put up 9 for calgary. It makes more sense to watch at strengths and weaknesses instead of numbers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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