PromoTheRobot Posted June 28, 2011 Report Share Posted June 28, 2011 Few people seriously think Stamkos could be pried away from the Lightning with an offer sheet. (Though apparently he's not close to a new deal yet, according to reports.) But if the Sabres did make a sick offer, and forced Tampa Bay to match, would that possibly force them to part with another decent player we may be targeting due to cap issues? PTR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inkman Posted June 28, 2011 Report Share Posted June 28, 2011 I can't wait for Tampa to sign Stamkos. While I think they may have to move LeCavalier or other pieces, he ain't goin nowheres. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gregkash Posted June 28, 2011 Report Share Posted June 28, 2011 There's no way they don't sign Stamkos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wjag Posted June 28, 2011 Report Share Posted June 28, 2011 I can't wait for Tampa to sign Stamkos. While I think they may have to move LeCavalier or other pieces, he ain't goin nowheres. If they didn't have Steve Izerman as GM, I think it would be possible. But with Stevie Wonder there, NFW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DumbPuck Posted June 28, 2011 Report Share Posted June 28, 2011 I can't wait for Tampa to sign Stamkos. While I think they may have to move LeCavalier or other pieces, he ain't goin nowheres. How old is LeCavalier? I was under the impression his career may be on the way down. If not it would be great to see him as an opportunity for Blue n Gold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nucci Posted June 28, 2011 Report Share Posted June 28, 2011 How old is LeCavalier? I was under the impression his career may be on the way down. If not it would be great to see him as an opportunity for Blue n Gold. His career started going downward shortly after he signed his big contract. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wacollin Posted June 28, 2011 Report Share Posted June 28, 2011 Few people seriously think Stamkos could be pried away from the Lightning with an offer sheet. (Though apparently he's not close to a new deal yet, according to reports.) But if the Sabres did make a sick offer, and forced Tampa Bay to match, would that possibly force them to part with another decent player we may be targeting due to cap issues? PTR I like the thinking but if we make a ridicules offer that handcuffs Tampa and forced them to make other moves, no way would they be willing to trade with us. I am sure Stevie would be quite upset. Now is some other team handcuffs them with a crazy offer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shrader Posted June 28, 2011 Report Share Posted June 28, 2011 The big question is whether or not Stamkos is selfish enough to do something like this knowing it will cause trouble for the team. He has to be looking at some huge offers from Tampa already, so he should already have a good idea of what they're willing to pay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inkman Posted June 28, 2011 Report Share Posted June 28, 2011 I like the thinking but if we make a ridicules offer that handcuffs Tampa... Are you assuming Tampa won't sign him this week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wacollin Posted June 28, 2011 Report Share Posted June 28, 2011 Are you assuming Tampa won't sign him this week? No way Tampa doesn't resign him, the fans down here would revolt! Even if they overpay it'll be cheaper than matching any crazy offer sheet someone sends his way. I was just playing along with the OPS point, which could still hold true depending on what Tampa ends up paying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PromoTheRobot Posted June 28, 2011 Author Report Share Posted June 28, 2011 No way Tampa doesn't resign him, the fans down here would revolt! Even if they overpay it'll be cheaper than matching any crazy offer sheet someone sends his way. I was just playing along with the OPS point, which could still hold true depending on what Tampa ends up paying. The last thing I read is that Stamkos is not close to a new deal with the Lightning. Does that mean he will still be unsigned come July 1? PTR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloSoldier2010 Posted June 28, 2011 Report Share Posted June 28, 2011 i've heard rumors that he's not happy in tampa at all. that's probably why he hasnt signed yet. He's trying to make it as tough on the lightning as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wacollin Posted June 28, 2011 Report Share Posted June 28, 2011 i've heard rumors that he's not happy in tampa at all. that's probably why he hasnt signed yet. He's trying to make it as tough on the lightning as possible. Not saying it's not true. I live close to Tampa and every time I have heard him speak he says the right things. I think the Lightning sign him before the 1st so they don't have to match some offer that will strap them short term with the cap. For some reason I think he will give in a bit before 6/1 ao he doesn't end up taking a chance on ending up on a bad team. But I have nothing to base this.on, just a gut feeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dEnnis the Menace Posted June 28, 2011 Report Share Posted June 28, 2011 The last thing I read is that Stamkos is not close to a new deal with the Lightning. Does that mean he will still be unsigned come July 1? PTR Even if he is still unsigned, Tampa will more than likely match any offer sheet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nucci Posted June 28, 2011 Report Share Posted June 28, 2011 Even if he is still unsigned, Tampa will more than likely match any offer sheet. Yzerman has said this many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
X. Benedict Posted June 28, 2011 Report Share Posted June 28, 2011 Yzerman has said this many times. But matching an offer may mean that he has to trade pieces. I'm hoping somebody comes in at $10 M per... :lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taro T Posted June 28, 2011 Report Share Posted June 28, 2011 Not saying it's not true. I live close to Tampa and every time I have heard him speak he says the right things. I think the Lightning sign him before the 1st so they don't have to match some offer that will strap them short term with the cap. For some reason I think he will give in a bit before 6/1 ao he doesn't end up taking a chance on ending up on a bad team. But I have nothing to base this.on, just a gut feeling. How would he end up on a "bad team" if he doesn't sign w/ TB prior to noon on Friday? If nobody gives him an offer better than what TB has put on the table, he signs w/ them. If the only offers that are better than TB's come from teams he doesn't want to play for, he tells TB about them and asks them to up the ante. Either way he signs w/ TB. He might lose a couple of bucks signing on Friday, if TB provides a premium in their offer to keep him from testing the market, but that isn't an absolute given as TB is currently close to the cap (per the discussion around here, I haven't verified that but trust what people have been writing) and may not have the ability to go for that 'offer to make certain he doesn't listen to other offers offer'. I'd suggest it makes sense for him to wait until he sees what is out there to sign. I expect he'll get more $'s than what TB is willing to pay today for him. (Though I fully expect TB to match whatever he is offered and fully expect it to be more than they're offering today.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spndnchz Posted June 28, 2011 Report Share Posted June 28, 2011 FWIW, Stamkos can see the number from another team and Tampa won't lose him. He's an RFA, teams need to send him an offer sheet with all the figures on it. He needs to sign the offer sheet before Tampa would have the decision to match or not. It's not like someone would tender an offer of 5 for 5 and he has to take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That Aud Smell Posted June 28, 2011 Report Share Posted June 28, 2011 Few people seriously think Stamkos could be pried away from the Lightning with an offer sheet. (Though apparently he's not close to a new deal yet, according to reports.) But if the Sabres did make a sick offer, and forced Tampa Bay to match, would that possibly force them to part with another decent player we may be targeting due to cap issues? to what i think is your original point (seems like people focused on whether the lightning would match any signed offer sheet (they almost certainly will)), i think it's very possible that a big, big offer sheet would take some control away from the lightning in terms of what they are going to do with the rest of their roster. but that's risky business, IMO. first, you better be ready for them to call your bluff and take the 5 #1 picks, or whatever. second, what comes around, goes around. (then again, isn't that what lowe did to us with vanek? so maybe this would be "the goes around" part?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nucci Posted June 28, 2011 Report Share Posted June 28, 2011 But matching an offer may mean that he has to trade pieces. I'm hoping somebody comes in at $10 M per... :lol: Rumors here in Philly that the Flyers have cleared cap space to make such an offer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CallawaySabres Posted June 28, 2011 Report Share Posted June 28, 2011 Rumors here in Philly that the Flyers have cleared cap space to make such an offer. http://espn.go.com/blog/nhl/post/_/id/9802/countdown-to-july-1-are-flyers-targeting-stamkos-whats-next-for-sullivan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cereal Posted June 28, 2011 Report Share Posted June 28, 2011 If multiple teams give Stamkos (or any RFA for that matter) offer sheets, what happens? He just has the option to choose one or none, that simple? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taro T Posted June 28, 2011 Report Share Posted June 28, 2011 If multiple teams give Stamkos (or any RFA for that matter) offer sheets, what happens? He just has the option to choose one or none, that simple? It's that simple. And once he has signed an offer sheet, whatever combination of salary / years / NMC/NTC that it contains will be his contract. The only question is whether the Bolts or the team that made the offer will be paying the contract. And that question will be resolved w/in a short time (1 week IIRC). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nobody Posted June 28, 2011 Report Share Posted June 28, 2011 But matching an offer may mean that he has to trade pieces. I'm hoping somebody comes in at $10 M per... :lol: I could see the Flyers doing a 7 year $70 million offer sheet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IKnowPhysics Posted June 28, 2011 Report Share Posted June 28, 2011 TL;DR: TBL needs to sign Stamkos before the offer sheets arrive, otherwise they lose control of their finances and are likely forced to part ways with a big salary (like Simon Gagne). In order to land a Stamkos-sized contract, we would need to make some cap room (like buying out Kotalik). This Stamkos offer sheet idea to pry apart the TBL team under a tight cap has been around a little while. Facts: + TBL has $21.8M available and 15 players signed for next year. No goalies signed. + Free Agents: - RFA F Stamkos - RFA F Purcell - RFA D Lundin - RFA D Smaby - UFA F S Gagne - UFA F Bergenheim - UFA F A Hall - UFA D R Jones - UFA G Roloson - UFA G M Smith There's three possible paths for Stamkos, and he's pretty much in control. Path A: He signs a qualifying offer from TBL of at least $3.7M. Path B: He rejects all qualifying offers from TBL, no offer sheets from another team are signed, and goes to arbitration. Path C: He rejects all qualifying offers from TBL, an offer sheet from another team is signed. Analysis: Path A: TBL has until July 1 before the offer sheet sharks come out. It's in their best interest to sign Stamkos ASAP to stay in control of the situation. If they don't, I think it's going to get offer sheeteriffic. Path B: I think this is unlikely. I don't believe that arbitration would award Stamkos the same $Texas that he could get from a offer sheet/match scenario. I believe his agent probably knows this. They're going to negotiate a deal themselves with somebody- they wouldn't trust an adjudicator to do it. Path C: Increasingly likely everyday as TBL doesn't sign him before July 1. I think Stamkos (and his agent) want to "test the RFA waters" so to speak. They can wield the power of every offer sheet team over each other AND try to use them to get TBL to match. It's the scenario that gives Stamkos the most options and likely the most money. I'll explore this one, as the others are boring. Path C consequences for TBL: The downside for TBL is that if Stamkos walks down Path C, they're at a clear disadvantage, regardless of whether they end up with Stamkos. +If they fail to match, they've lost a top-3 player and perhaps the best player to ever play for them. Yes, they likely will have gained multiple 1st round draft picks, but a Stamkos replacement is very unlikely and try selling that move to fans and players. +If they match, they use up a significant portion of their cap space. It's easy to imagine Stamkos would command a salary cap hit between $7M and $10M. This leaves TBL between $11.8M and $14.8M to sign up to 7 skaters and two goalies- roughly $2M available per player. This means that some players may not be resigned: Simon Gagne made $5.2M last year; backup G Mike Smith made $2.2M. Roloson may command a small-moderate raise over his $2.5M salary. With regard to Buffalo: Regier has stated that he doesn't plan on buying out any contracts this month. That leaves us with $12M in cap space. Regier's said in the past that he likes to keep about $3M around for injuries/call-ups/deadline deals, so our effective cap is $9M. We need to sign at least two forwards, two D, and a backup goalie. That's not hard to do with $9M, but... Giving all of our RFAs reasonable offers/raises (Gerbe, McCormick [uFA], Sekera, Weber, Gragnani, Enroth), that's about $4M. That leaves about $5M with no Connolly, Grier, Niedermayer, Ellis, or Montador (and Mancari's already confirmed by Regier to go UFA July 1). So if we were going to attempt to sign Stamkos for $7M-$10M per year, we would likely have to trade or a buy out either a larger salary ($3M-$6M) or several lesser-paid, younger players else to get under the $9M effective cap (in addition to the compensatory draft picks cost). These are all rough figures, but the idea is there. We can take a run at Stamkos, but it might cost us a Hecht/Boyes/Kotalik-level salary to do so. And frankly, that would be reasonable. Buy out Kotalik to make room for a landed Stamkos contract? That's no choice at all. What I'd like to see Buffalo do: If he makes it to July 1 unsigned, make a nice fat offer sheet to Stamkos. It forces TBL to match (or we get Stamkos!), or at least raises the ante, forcing them into salary cap hell. Then we can go about our business of signing whatever UFAs are around. Edit: Doh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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