why is the PK so much better?

[mjd1001]

Why is the PK so much better this year? Except for one single aspect, its not.

 

Last year (per 2 minutes PK 4 on 5):

-1.68 shots allowed, 0.24 expected goals allowed, 1.70 scoring chances allowed, 0.71 high danger chances allowed.

This year (per 2 minutes PK):

-1.86 shots allowed, 0.28 expected goals allowed, 2.05 scoring chances allowed, 0.80 high danger chances allowed.

So far per PK, this years PK is allowing more shots, more 'expected goals', more 'scoring chances' and more 'high danger chances' (better quality shots from the prime scoring areas.  In every metric that can be measured, the PK is kinda the same as last year, but slightly worse in all those areas.

Why are they the top rated PK then? The goalies.

Last year:  .830 saves percentage short handed

This year: .943 save percentage short handed.

So again, the PK "looks" better this year but the numbers show the skaters aren't really playing much different. They are allowing the same (or more) number of shots. Same (or more) shots from the prime scoring areas.  What we think of as 'good PK' is really just the goalies making a lot more saves than last year.

The good news...the goalies ARE better than last year on the PK. The bad news....its is unlikely their PK save percentage is going to stay at .943

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/teamreport.php?season=20242025&team=BUF&stype=2

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/teamreport.php?team=BUF

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20252026&thruseason=20252026&stype=2&sit=pk&score=all&stdoi=g&rate=n&team=BUF&pos=S&loc=B&toi=0&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single&draftteam=ALL

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20252026&thruseason=20242025&stype=2&sit=pk&score=all&stdoi=g&rate=n&team=BUF&pos=S&loc=B&toi=0&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single&draftteam=ALL

 

Edited 14 hours ago by mjd1001

[PerreaultForever]

It's also about goalies being able to see pucks and defending the net front area. Timmons and Samuelsson have been very good on the PK. 

[DarthEbriate]

At this time last year, Levi was being rushed, Reimer was with San Jose, and Luukkonen was fall flat after and solid previous season. 

This year, we have the veteran in the lineup and playing almost exclusively. The kid (Ellis) has played one “no one has video on me yet” game, and Luukkonen has had one good showing and one messy one. 

[shrader]

31 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

At this time last year, Levi was being rushed, Reimer was with San Jose, and Luukkonen was fall flat after and solid previous season. 

This year, we have the veteran in the lineup and playing almost exclusively. The kid (Ellis) has played one “no one has video on me yet” game, and Luukkonen has had one good showing and one messy one. 

Anaheim 

[Kristian]

Good goaltending makes everything look better. Buffalo fans, of all people, know this.

And ***** goaltending, makes everything look worse. Buffalo fans, of all people, know this.

Edited 6 hours ago by Kristian

[Weave]

Haven’t seen a game yet.  Have they reduced the cross crease pass plays that led to so many SH goals last season?

[JohnC]

1 hour ago, Weave said:

Haven’t seen a game yet.  Have they reduced the cross crease pass plays that led to so many SH goals last season?

Yes.

[bob_sauve28]

Jack Quinn has been a key penalty killer. 

 

What does that tell us? 🤷‍♀️

[matter2003]

I dunno...Caps literally didn't even have a shot on goal I don't think in their last 3 PP's and the best scoring chance was MacLeod's breakaway shorthanded. If they did have a shot it was nothing dangerous.

[bob_sauve28]

24 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

I dunno...Caps literally didn't even have a shot on goal I don't think in their last 3 PP's and the best scoring chance was MacLeod's breakaway shorthanded. If they did have a shot it was nothing dangerous.

The defence overall has been much improved 

[French Collection]

43 minutes ago, bob_sauve28 said:

Jack Quinn has been a key penalty killer. 

 

What does that tell us? 🤷‍♀️

He was a key PK player in the OHL. If he can add more to his NHL game that should translate to more TOI and confidence.

I am still hoping for this guy to reach his potential. Frustrating development with all of his setbacks.

[Pimlach]

1 hour ago, bob_sauve28 said:

Jack Quinn has been a key penalty killer. 

 

What does that tell us? 🤷‍♀️

Key?   I’ve noticed him out there if Tuch/Greenway or another normal PK guy is in the box.   He scares me.  

[oddoublee]

13 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

Why is the PK so much better this year? Except for one single aspect, its not.

 

Last year (per 2 minutes PK 4 on 5):

-1.68 shots allowed, 0.24 expected goals allowed, 1.70 scoring chances allowed, 0.71 high danger chances allowed.

This year (per 2 minutes PK):

-1.86 shots allowed, 0.28 expected goals allowed, 2.05 scoring chances allowed, 0.80 high danger chances allowed.

So far per PK, this years PK is allowing more shots, more 'expected goals', more 'scoring chances' and more 'high danger chances' (better quality shots from the prime scoring areas.  In every metric that can be measured, the PK is kinda the same as last year, but slightly worse in all those areas.

Why are they the top rated PK then? The goalies.

Last year:  .830 saves percentage short handed

This year: .943 save percentage short handed.

So again, the PK "looks" better this year but the numbers show the skaters aren't really playing much different. They are allowing the same (or more) number of shots. Same (or more) shots from the prime scoring areas.  What we think of as 'good PK' is really just the goalies making a lot more saves than last year.

The good news...the goalies ARE better than last year on the PK. The bad news....its is unlikely their PK save percentage is going to stay at .943

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/teamreport.php?season=20242025&team=BUF&stype=2

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/teamreport.php?team=BUF

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20252026&thruseason=20252026&stype=2&sit=pk&score=all&stdoi=g&rate=n&team=BUF&pos=S&loc=B&toi=0&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single&draftteam=ALL

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20252026&thruseason=20242025&stype=2&sit=pk&score=all&stdoi=g&rate=n&team=BUF&pos=S&loc=B&toi=0&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single&draftteam=ALL

 

Thanks for ruining my morning

[mjd1001]

I didn't look up the stats first and then draw a conclusion.. I did it the other way around. 

When I watch the PK, I don't really notice that much different than last year. 

Yes, they've had a game or two where they've looked really good but they did last year. Also. Overall when you considered the whole season I don't see much difference in them positionally.

Basically when they maintain their positioning and don't chase the puck they're very good. Once they start going to the boards that's when they get bad. But that was the same both last year and this year. 

So I know the goaltending has been better but when I looked up the numbers in the initial post that's what surprised me... Just how much better it was on the penalty kill. 

And for everyone saying that the penalty kill is a lot better... My initial eye test doesn't really notice that and the numbers don't really notice that also. 

High danger chances are legitimate scoring chances from in front and close to the net. Scoring chances don't have to be an official shot on goal but they also have to do with not just shots but legitimate chances to score. The team is giving up just as many of those if not more than last year. 

Of course it is early... Both for their overall effectiveness and the deep dive into the analytics. Another 10 to 15 games and we should have a clearer picture.

[bob_sauve28]

1 hour ago, Pimlach said:

Key?   I’ve noticed him out there if Tuch/Greenway or another normal PK guy is in the box.   He scares me.  

Not sure why he scares you and he is part of the regular PK unit, not just when someone like Tuch is taking a penalty 

 

Love seeing the young players rounding into solid two way players

[LGR4GM]

I thinks about 90% goaltending. 

[Taro T]

30 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

I didn't look up the stats first and then draw a conclusion.. I did it the other way around. 

When I watch the PK, I don't really notice that much different than last year. 

Yes, they've had a game or two where they've looked really good but they did last year. Also. Overall when you considered the whole season I don't see much difference in them positionally.

Basically when they maintain their positioning and don't chase the puck they're very good. Once they start going to the boards that's when they get bad. But that was the same both last year and this year. 

So I know the goaltending has been better but when I looked up the numbers in the initial post that's what surprised me... Just how much better it was on the penalty kill. 

And for everyone saying that the penalty kill is a lot better... My initial eye test doesn't really notice that and the numbers don't really notice that also. 

High danger chances are legitimate scoring chances from in front and close to the net. Scoring chances don't have to be an official shot on goal but they also have to do with not just shots but legitimate chances to score. The team is giving up just as many of those if not more than last year. 

Of course it is early... Both for their overall effectiveness and the deep dive into the analytics. Another 10 to 15 games and we should have a clearer picture.

2 things they've been better at this year than last on the PK.  They aren't giving the pass through the crease to allow a clean tap in this year.  Teams aren't trying it much, and the 1 or so time they try it during each game, the D-man has managed to get enough of his stick on it to disrupt it.  Is that luck or a slight change of alignment, or simply being a year older and being more ready for that pass?  No data.  If it's luck, that'll bear out as the PK falters.  But if it's one of the other 2 or something else, then it likely is sustainable.

The other thing they've been better at is not letting themselves get out of position to the point that there is a wide open shooter dead square in the slot leaving the goalie to hope the shooter misfires as the goalie needs to move to even get into a spot where he MIGHT block the shot.  That happened a LOT last year.  Can't recall a single instance of it this year (neither from taking the puck below the goal line and sending it back to the slot nor from getting a 1v1 win at the boards with a man open in the slot) though it probably has happened a bit.

Would really like to know how the people deciding what is high danger are making that evaluation.  Expect that there really should be a further deliniation between a high danger chance and a high high danger chance.  Am not seeing nearly as many high high danger shots against as there were in the past.

And, clearly the GTing has been significantly better on the PK this year than in past years.  Expect that isn't just that the goalies are playing better (though it's a huge part of it); expect it's also lesser quality high danger chances than there were in the past.

[Jorcus]

13 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

2 minutes ago, Taro T said:

2 things they've been better at this year than last on the PK.  They aren't giving the pass through the crease to allow a clean tap in this year.  Teams aren't trying it much, and the 1 or so time they try it during each game, the D-man has managed to get enough of his stick on it to disrupt it.  Is that luck or a slight change of alignment, or simply being a year older and being more ready for that pass?  No data.  If it's luck, that'll bear out as the PK falters.  But if it's one of the other 2 or something else, then it likely is sustainable.

The other thing they've been better at is not letting themselves get out of position to the point that there is a wide open shooter dead square in the slot leaving the goalie to hope the shooter misfires as the goalie needs to move to even get into a spot where he MIGHT block the shot.  That happened a LOT last year.  Can't recall a single instance of it this year (neither from taking the puck below the goal line and sending it back to the slot nor from getting a 1v1 win at the boards with a man open in the slot) though it probably has happened a bit.

Would really like to know how the people deciding what is high danger are making that evaluation.  Expect that there really should be a further deliniation between a high danger chance and a high high danger chance.  Am not seeing nearly as many high high danger shots against as there were in the past.

And, clearly the GTing has been significantly better on the PK this year than in past years.  Expect that isn't just that the goalies are playing better (though it's a huge part of it); expect it's also lesser quality high danger chances than there were in the past.

I was pondering on this as well. If it's just about getting a shot off from the area in front of the net vs a shot from the wing there is some sub text to that stat you would have to take into consideration. Allowing an initial shot from in close is not as dangerous as the second or third chance from in close. If the D men are clearing the puck or putting the shooters on the ice it would certainly help prevent goals. The other question is what about preventing goals from what are considered low danger areas? Thompson, Ovi, Matthews and Zibanejad among others score many goals from an area that is considered low danger on NHL edge at least. It's slowing down the cross ice passes or blocking that helps prevent those shots. In my mind are just as high danger with certain players on the ice. 

Getting back to the Sabres PK They certainly are good at harassing the play before it gets in the zone. They were good at that last year as well. The second stage is trying to get possession of the puck before the power play can set up. Some nights they are pretty good at it but I think it depends on the speed of the other teams players. The third is to stay in the box and if a puck does get inside try to prevent the second and third chance. I think that is what they have been better at.