Sabres have elected arbitration with Byram

[PerreaultForever]

2 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I'm good with 3 years of Byram in exchange for 6 months of Mitts. At this point, I think Byram on defense makes us better than Ryan Johnson or Bryson or more minutes for Samuelsson 

 

Well of course he does. He's better than those stiffs but you aren't going to build a winning team and culture with these sort of temporary fixes. 

Now I have heard Byram wanted 9 million and no way do I think we should have paid that, but I'd rather have traded him and made moves to fill that void. Orlov or somebody could have been signed to temporarily fill the Byram hole if Adams was on the ball. The way this is trending I think it will all fall apart within 2 years.

[PromoTheRobot]

32 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Yea... sure he could. 

"According to AFP Analytics’ offseason contract projections, Byram is worth roughly $5.2 million on a one-year contract. That’s a useful starting point for estimating his award." https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6477038/2025/07/06/bowen-byram-sabres-salary-arbitration/

A couple days in UFA is what? 85% of all unrestricted free agents gone. 

I was basing the $9MM figure from a 32 Thoughts pod where they were guessing Byram's next deal. They felt that's his worth.

[spndnchz]

Sabres elected arbitration?

[Flashsabre]

Who was this offer sheet coming from?

4 things:

1) You need all your own pick next year to make one.

2) You have to be a team that is confident you will make the playoffs next year and have enough cap space to fit Byram’s salary in.

3) Next year is the McKenna draft. No team with a lot of cap space is going to risk handing their unprotected first to Buffalo and watch them win the lottery with it and draft McKenna.

4) Sabres aren’t in a Cap crunch so they can match the offer.

The offer sheet was made up by Byram’s agent and spoon feed to Dreger to release publicly. Notice that all the other insiders disputed that one would come. 

[LGR4GM]

2 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

I was basing the $9MM figure from a 32 Thoughts pod where they were guessing Byram's next deal. They felt that's his worth.

That's because Friedman gets his into fed to him by player agents but that's not what he's going to get in arbitration and not what the Sabres offered or he'd be signed. 

[PromoTheRobot]

Just now, LGR4GM said:

That's because Friedman gets his into fed to him by player agents but that's not what he's going to get in arbitration and not what the Sabres offered or he'd be signed. 

I always thought arbitrators tend to favor the players.

[thewookie1]

25 minutes ago, Weave said:

Fan fiction.

So then why hasn’t a trade been made yet? Aside from SJS and Philly, the other teams apparently interested in Byram are playoff teams not looking to subtract from their present roster. Adams wants NHLers and those playoff teams are unlikely to either have the cap space or present pieces to make a deal. I highly doubt Adams has 5 great offers on the table of NHL players and is sitting on his hands for the sake of it. 

 

12 minutes ago, Flashsabre said:

Who was this offer sheet coming from?

4 things:

1) You need all your own pick next year to make one.

2) You have to be a team that is confident you will make the playoffs next year and have enough cap space to fit Byram’s salary in.

3) Next year is the McKenna draft. No team with a lot of cap space is going to risk handing their unprotected first to Buffalo and watch them win the lottery with it and draft McKenna.

4) Sabres aren’t in a Cap crunch so they can match the offer.

The offer sheet was made up by Byram’s agent and spoon feed to Dreger to release publicly. Notice that all the other insiders disputed that one would come. 

Less actual evidence and more the general threat of one would be my guess.

[Taro T]

17 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

I always thought arbitrators tend to favor the players.

1/2 of the arbitrators are selected by the union and 1/2 are selected by the league.

They alternate in getting to choose dates and arbitrators.

Edited 6 hours ago by Taro T

[thewookie1]

17 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

That's because Friedman gets his into fed to him by player agents but that's not what he's going to get in arbitration and not what the Sabres offered or he'd be signed. 

He’ll be rewarded 6.5 or 7mil by arbitration would be my guess. He certainly won’t get 8 or 9 mil AAV, especially if he asks for 2 years. 

[Weave]

1 hour ago, thewookie1 said:

So then why hasn’t a trade been made yet?

No idea, and I am not inclined to expand upon one of an uncountable number of possibilities and run with that to some conclusion.  It’s literally fiction.

[krakensabr56390]

The thing is, a short term deal vis arb is going to come in a lot lower than he wants.

The Miller contractor 7.5 million per year, but it buys up a lot of UFA years. These are only RFA years we’re talking about which are less valuable in terms of contract comp.

so he will probably come in under that with an award, and I’m sure that’s not what he’s looking for with his injury history.

 

also, not being too on the nose, he had a chance to do the same thing yesterday and declined to do it. Therefore, it does not seem the path that he wanted to take… For those saying the Sabres are doing a dumb thing. He must’ve thought it advantageous to not be in the situation that he is now in.

Edited 5 hours ago by krakensabr56390

[dudacek]

3 hours ago, Thorny said:

As long as you keep scoring with promo I know I don’t need to respond 

(but in seriousness I’ve explained it)

Yep. Left after my post and didn’t pick up this thread and see your follow-up until now.

Short version: it’s not the arb decision itself pissing you off, it’s the mounting evidence that this is turning into a squandered opportunity to make the team better?

Absolutely fair, if so, particularly in the context of your low opinion of Byram.

Edited 5 hours ago by dudacek

[dudacek]

I like Byram, I like the look of the defence right now, and see this getting us closer to adding a Rust or someone similar while keeping that D. So I like it in that context.

I just wish I was more confident they will be able to make that moves if they want to.

If you look at all the excess cap space around the league, there will be a lot of teams looking for Rakells and the price will be high.

[Brawndo]

3 hours ago, Thorny said:

Well done Adams 

The fact they’d bring in Jarmo to make him watch them depreciate his asset first hand is sickening and elite 

Jarmo’s probably thinking if I had made more trades with Buffalo, I still would be the GM in Columbus 

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, PromoTheRobot said:

I always thought arbitrators tend to favor the players.

I want to add because it's part of your argument, I do agree that if Adams is getting trash offers that he should continue to do what he's doing.

[Eleven]

But what about Timmins?

[FrenchConnection44]

I don’t see why we just don’t try to keep him. I’d be fine with a two year arbitration deal. But also try to sign him longer. He’s a very talented offensive player. And we have traded away a lot of offensive fire power. Of course, we need to sell him on the value of staying in Buffalo. But if we can get fortunate and make the playoffs (bit of a stretch) who knows? 
 

other than the contract uncertainty I don’t see the value in trading him. And I suspect teams aren’t wanting to give up significant assets and sign him to a big long term deal. 

[dudacek]

Great article for those who can read the Athletic about how arbitration works:

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/3487717/2022/08/09/nhl-arbitration/

Both sides can continue negotiating right up until the hearing begins

Any offers made during the negotiations cannot be used in the hearing.

Each side enters the hearing with a number and their reasons supporting that number.

Only certain evidence is allowed to be used in those arguments, including games played (or time missed due to injuries), tenure with a team or in the league, statistics to define performance, leadership qualities, and comparable player compensation (only from other restricted free agents). 

Each side will have received the other sides case prior to arbitration

The judge will decide what’s fair based on the arguments and make a ruling within 48 hours.

[Thorny]

57 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Yep. Left after my post and didn’t pick up this thread and see your follow-up until now.

Short version: it’s not the arb decision itself pissing you off, it’s the mounting evidence that this is turning into a squandered opportunity to make the team better?

Absolutely fair, if so, particularly in the context of your low opinion of Byram.

Exactly, and it’s just the real time witnessing of “the circumstances”

this latest action is fine…given the circumstances. That’s always been the point. They create the circumstances 

and guess what - dollars to donuts the “circumstances” will lead to us not spending to the cap. There just wasn’t anything we could do 

45 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

Jarmo’s probably thinking if I had made more trades with Buffalo, I still would be the GM in Columbus 

[dudacek]

Recent contracts by defencemen that might be relevant:

• Chychrun 9
• Miller 7.5
• Romanov 6.2
• Lohrei 3.2
• Seider 8.5
• Power 8.3
• Hronek 7.2
• Toews 7.2
• Durzi 6
• Sandin 4.6

Byram’s counting stats are unremarkable in that context. Most of his analytics mediocre and he has an injury history, which are elements in the Sabres favour.

His ice time and his Stanley cup ring and his even strength numbers and some of his analytics work in his favour.

First glance, I’m betting this comes in at between $7 and $7.5M? I’ve always though Hronek was an excellent comparable.

Edited 4 hours ago by dudacek

[Brawndo]

This one is for Darth

 

 

[PerreaultForever]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

I want to add because it's part of your argument, I do agree that if Adams is getting trash offers that he should continue to do what he's doing.

I doubt he got "trash offers" but I imagine they were not player for player offers. I bet he got a lot of offers involving picks and prospects and if he'd taken those and then flipped them to someone else he'd have gotten what he wanted as we alluded to earlier. 

[Mango]

5 hours ago, dudacek said:

This gives the Sabres assurance they will have Byram under contract by mid-August, protects them from an offer sheet, and still means they can trade him if they wish.

It also means they aren’t close to a contract or a trade, and probably arenkt expecting Byram to sign with them for term.

Not aware of the post covid era numbers, but I believe that pre covid taking a player all the way to arbitration all but guaranteed that they weren't staying with their org longer than they were required to. 

I think the number of players that sign another contract is pretty small.

[dudacek]

2 minutes ago, Mango said:

Not aware of the post covid era numbers, but I believe that pre covid taking a player all the way to arbitration all but guaranteed that they weren't staying with their org longer than they were required to. 

I think the number of players that sign another contract is pretty small.

Don’t think that has changed.

I also think that if the Sabres thought the were going to be able to have him for more than 2 years this whole scenario probably wouldn’t be happening.

I think this scenario was the 2nd choice for both Adams and Ferris.

If Ferris couldn’t get a big-money long-term deal now, he’ll take a quick path to UFA.

And if Adams couldn’t get a reasonable extension with term, he’ll take contract certainty without term.

[Ducky]

3 hours ago, thewookie1 said:

He’ll be rewarded 6.5 or 7mil by arbitration would be my guess. He certainly won’t get 8 or 9 mil AAV, especially if he asks for 2 years. 

A 38 point D man is worth 7m?