NHL Lottery will take place live on May 5th

[shrader]

Just now, Broken Ankles said:

If a team outside the bottom 10 wins the first-place lottery, they only move up a max of 10 spots, so it's possible their "win" yields second place overall, and if the Sabres won the second-place lottery, they would default to #3 overall.  My limited understanding. 

Ahhh, so that's one specific team winning the big lottery.  I didn't think of that possibility.

[LGR4GM]

 

 

[DarthEbriate]

Question: Do we have a reason why is it live this year?

Wasn't there an upside-down card or mistakenly swapped cards on the reveal show a couple seasons ago? Or is it dull once team #12 isn't in sequence and we all already know that they're in the top 3 and the rest of the reveals are a bore? Or is the whole watching 14 GMs try to look calm and disinterested result in dull and uninteresting television?

[jad1]

1 minute ago, DarthEbriate said:

Question: Do we have a reason why is it live this year?

Wasn't there an upside-down card or mistakenly swapped cards on the reveal show a couple seasons ago? Or is it dull once team #12 isn't in sequence and we all already know that they're in the top 3 and the rest of the reveals are a bore? Or is the whole watching 14 GMs try to look calm and disinterested result in dull and uninteresting television?

Who knows?  How long before Sabres fans can just ignore this over-engineered sh#t show?

Kev gets his lottery loyalty card punched for the fifth time tonight.  Does that get him his free sundae?

[Wyldnwoody44]

I wish I could care, but this season in particular; I can't. 

Yay a prospect, woo, like we haven't seen this before. I remember getting pumped for Dylan Cozens. Ha. 

[steveoath]

How does the lottery actually work live? Like with the different odds? 

[GoPuckYourself]

Hopefully they do the right thing and trade the pick for a top 6 forward.

[PromoTheRobot]

19 minutes ago, steveoath said:

How does the lottery actually work live? Like with the different odds? 

Not sure how it will work but the odds remain the same. Four lottery balls will be drawn and whatever the 4-digit sequence is, the team assigned that sequence wins. Buffalo is assigned 64 combos. You can see them here: https://puckgm.puckpedia.com/draft-lottery-combos

Edited 2 hours ago by PromoTheRobot

[PromoTheRobot]

1 hour ago, jad1 said:

Who knows?  How long before Sabres fans can just ignore this over-engineered sh#t show?

Kev gets his lottery loyalty card punched for the fifth time tonight.  Does that get him his free sundae?

Don't watch then.

[Taro T]

23 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Not sure how it will work but the odds remain the same. Four lottery balls will be drawn and whatever the 4-digit sequence is, the team assigned that sequence wins. Buffalo is assigned 64 combos. You can see them here: https://puckgm.puckpedia.com/draft-lottery-combos

That's pretty much how its worked for all of the lotteries after the Crosby lottery.

14 numbered balls popped into the machine and then 4 are taken out randomly.  Those 4 balls can be randomly drawn into 1,001 different permutations (not counting which order they're drawn in; so 1-2-3-4 is equivalent for this exercise to 1-2-4-3 and 2-1-3-4, etc. etc.).  They leave 1 combination as a redrawn; this year that is 11-12-13-14 per your Puckpedia article.  So, there are exactly 1,000 winning combinations.

Depending upon how the league wants the odds divvied up, teams are randomly allotted 10x that number of 4 number combinations.  So, if they wanted the last place team to have a 10% chance of winning they'd assign them 100 random combinations and if they wanted them to have a 20% chance of winning they'd get 200.  The Sabres have a 6.5% chance of winning so they were given 65 winning combos.

And interestingly (or not) the Sabres have 1, 2, 4, 5 as one of their combos.  Watch this to be the year that the balls are drawn 4, 2, 1, 3 so the Sabres will miss it by the just about the slimmest possible margin (1245 vs 1235 vs the winner 1234).

And for the 2nd draw, they use 14 balls once again and the remaining teams all keep their original combinations.  But now instead of just 1 redraw combination, there are now x+1 redraw combinations with x being the number of chances the team that won the 1st lottery had as those combinations now no longer are valid as winners.

[pi2000]

next year is the year to win the lottery... 

so that can only mean Buffalo wins this year and Boston wins next year

[pastajoe]

As long as Boston and Philly don’t move up I’m ok. But those are big city teams that Bettman would like to recover, so you never know. 

[HumanSlinky39]

[jad1]

2 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Don't watch then.

If it's Sabres-related, I watch.  Doesn't mean I'm happy that they've gotten VIP seating at this consolation prize clown show the last 14 years.

[Mr. Allen]

1 hour ago, pi2000 said:

next year is the year to win the lottery... 

so that can only mean Buffalo wins this year and Boston wins next year

Our odds won’t be that great next year after we win the Cup!   (Joking) 

[Rasmus_]

I'll take the average draft odds, and just say, we'll be drafting 9 or 11.