Casey Mittelstadt's next contract

[K-9]

Mitts’s next contract? It’s gonna be with another team if this keeps up. 

[K-9]

@Sabres Fan in NS, do you honestly think Mitts will want to stay here after another year of this crap fest if he gets an opportunity to play with a playoff contender or back home in Minnesota? Imo, it’s a 50/50 proposition at this point.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

9 minutes ago, K-9 said:

@Sabres Fan in NS, do you honestly think Mitts will want to stay here after another year of this crap fest if he gets an opportunity to play with a playoff contender or back home in Minnesota? Imo, it’s a 50/50 proposition at this point.

I think he wants to and will stay.  The Sabres want him to stay too.  He has invested a lot and I think he feels the Sabres are close.

[TheAud]

1 hour ago, Curt said:

I value him a bit higher than that.  I’m curious though, could you give an example of a deal that would value him as an average 3rd line center?

I don't really have time to do any research on this but in my mind he's somewhere between Colton Sissons and Sam Bennett (not exactly the same type of player but that ballpark. So maybe $4M/year is fair?

[Curt]

4 minutes ago, TheAud said:

I don't really have time to do any research on this but in my mind he's somewhere between Colton Sissons and Sam Bennett (not exactly the same type of player but that ballpark. So maybe $4M/year is fair?

Everyone has their opinion, but I just don’t think it’s anywhere near realistic.  When they signed those deals, neither player had had a season of more than 36 points.  Mittelstadt will be coming off back to back 50+ point seasons.

I know points aren’t everything, but there are vast differences in production there.

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 hours ago, K-9 said:

Mitts’s next contract? It’s gonna be with another team if this keeps up. 

I don’t think that is going to be the case.  He’ll be re-signed.  He is an RFA and is very close to Dahlin and DC who aren’t going anywhere.  We also lack centers without retaining him.  

The biggest issue facing the Sabres is paying the core without having proven success on the ice.  TNT, DC, Dahlin and Power are all getting paid, but we are still miles from being a true contender.  Paying Mitts on a long term deal is just another similar contract for a player who has had individual success without team success.  

By the way, I still think 100k per point is a good rule of thumb.  More if the player is a proven goal scorer or a very strong 2 way player.  If he goes for 60 + points this season he’ll get over 6 mill per season.  

So where is the money going to come for the next RFA wave of JJP and Quinn?  Can’t keep everyone.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 14, 2023 by GASabresIUFAN

[TheAud]

1 hour ago, Curt said:

Everyone has their opinion, but I just don’t think it’s anywhere near realistic.  When they signed those deals, neither player had had a season of more than 36 points.  Mittelstadt will be coming off back to back 50+ point seasons.

I know points aren’t everything, but there are vast differences in production there.

Yeah, I guess in the abstract Casey is going to be worth more than $4M/season after this year, especially given the increase in the cap. 

I guess it's just that the two guys I mentioned, while not as skilled as Casey, are difficult to play against and play defense, win face-offs (at least Sissons), etc. The Sabres have none of those type of guys so maybe I was just projecting. 

[PerreaultForever]

11 hours ago, Curt said:

 

Yeah, I’m projecting something in the $6-7M range on a 4+ year deal.

So you think he's worth Nylander/Reinhart money? Really?

11 hours ago, Curt said:

 

I honestly believe that they can sign Mitts to a $6M+ long term contract, and make the money work.

If 2-3 years into the contract, you need to do something like buy out the last year of Skinner’s deal, or trade someone (even Mitts himself, it’s not like he will get trade protection) you can cross that bridge when you come to it.  I don’t see the reason to move out a good player before it’s absolutely necessary.

Oh it can "work" but does he give you enough for that money? I don't see him at that level. 

[PerreaultForever]

4 hours ago, Jorcus said:

 

Reading back on the Compher contract it was pretty controversial when it was signed. Compher was helped by the fact there were not many free agent centers on the market.   I was going to point out the Andrew Copp contract at 5.625 for 5 years as one of those that does not meet the my arbitrary .25gpg and .5 ppg figures. Time will tell if these were good signings or bad or neither.

The free agent center crop this year is a different story at this point. 

https://www.spotrac.com/nhl/free-agents/ufa/?ref=trending-pages

There are a lot of alternatives out there at the end of the year unless there is a pile of signings.  

Well free agents are usually over paid to get them to come/move. That's pretty obvious I think. We over paid Clifton for example and so he came over willingly. We over paid Johnson. (You think he wasn't sitting there in Colorado wishing he wasn't still there, but a year of money for retirement is a year of money)

Compher and Copp might be over paid for their offensive production but they are also 2 way players and filled needs on that team in terms of leadership as well as on ice. Compher's best season and Mitts best season are pretty similar though. If you're going to pay Mitts 6-7 like some want you are expecting top scoring numbers and I doubt that ever happens. Right now imo Cozens, Thompson, Skinner, Power and even Dahlin are all over paid for what they've done on the ice. You really want to add one more to that list? How's it working out so far?

[Curt]

59 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

So you think he's worth Nylander/Reinhart money? Really?

Oh it can "work" but does he give you enough for that money? I don't see him at that level. 

Not quite at Nylander or Reinhart level.  They received 8.7 and 8.0% of the cap on their contracts when they signed.  Also, keep in mind that they signed their contracts a few years ago, and in Nylander’s case he had a lot more RFA years remaining, which lowers the salary.  

8% would be about $7M AAV based on next season’s cap ceiling.  8.7% would be $7.6M.

I’m thinking something close to $6M for Mitts.  Depends how the rest of this season goes though.  He had 59 points last year.  He is currently on pace for 60 points this year.  Does he fall off or get injured and have a drop off from last season?  Does he surge and end the season with 70 points?  How he finishes this season could have a big impact on what type of salary figures are realistic for him.

Discussions can be had about what type of players the Sabres should spend money on, but as things stand right now, a salary in the $6-6.5M range seems very reasonable for what Mittelstadt has done these past two seasons.

[Huckleberry]

He has been one of our best along with JJP,  I would give him 6 mill a year.

[Weave]

7 hours ago, Curt said:

With that in mind, what would you like to see the team do with Mittelstadt?  He needs a new contract.

Hell of a dilemma.  I’m not interested a long term deal for anyone until this ship gets righted. Glad I’m not responsible to figure this ***** out.

[Night Train]

Another 7 year 50 mil deal.  Adams has a stack of those contracts on his desk. Fill in name later .

[PerreaultForever]

9 hours ago, Curt said:

Not quite at Nylander or Reinhart level.  They received 8.7 and 8.0% of the cap on their contracts when they signed.  Also, keep in mind that they signed their contracts a few years ago, and in Nylander’s case he had a lot more RFA years remaining, which lowers the salary.  

8% would be about $7M AAV based on next season’s cap ceiling.  8.7% would be $7.6M.

I’m thinking something close to $6M for Mitts.  Depends how the rest of this season goes though.  He had 59 points last year.  He is currently on pace for 60 points this year.  Does he fall off or get injured and have a drop off from last season?  Does he surge and end the season with 70 points?  How he finishes this season could have a big impact on what type of salary figures are realistic for him.

Discussions can be had about what type of players the Sabres should spend money on, but as things stand right now, a salary in the $6-6.5M range seems very reasonable for what Mittelstadt has done these past two seasons.

I guess ultimately my question would be do you keep just looking at a season of stats and keep throwing money at something that isn't working or do you need a completely different plan. The contracts/rewards KA has given out so far certainly do not seem to be paying dividends in terms of wins. 

[Curt]

On 12/14/2023 at 4:54 PM, Curt said:

Not quite at Nylander or Reinhart level.  They received 8.7 and 8.0% of the cap on their contracts when they signed.  Also, keep in mind that they signed their contracts a few years ago, and in Nylander’s case he had a lot more RFA years remaining, which lowers the salary.  

8% would be about $7M AAV based on next season’s cap ceiling.  8.7% would be $7.6M.

I’m thinking something close to $6M for Mitts.  Depends how the rest of this season goes though.  He had 59 points last year.  He is currently on pace for 60 points this year.  Does he fall off or get injured and have a drop off from last season?  Does he surge and end the season with 70 points?  How he finishes this season could have a big impact on what type of salary figures are realistic for him.

Discussions can be had about what type of players the Sabres should spend money on, but as things stand right now, a salary in the $6-6.5M range seems very reasonable for what Mittelstadt has done these past two seasons.

Hey @Thorny!  Why you thumbs down me?

[Thorny]

Just now, Curt said:

Hey @Thorny!  Why you thumbs down me?

Old age/small finger buttons on half-broken phone. Was supposed to be a thumbs up

Thanks for asking though, corrected 

I couldn’t care less if we paid him or traded him (really, this goes for anyone at this point) as clearly we need major change. But the specifics you laid out seem to be accurate as far as Casey is concerned 

[Curt]

3 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Old age/small finger buttons on half-broken phone. Was supposed to be a thumbs up

Thanks for asking though, corrected 

I couldn’t care less if we paid him or traded him (really, this goes for anyone at this point) as clearly we need major change. But the specifics you laid out seem to be accurate as far as Casey is concerned 

No fun.  We have more interesting discussions when we disagree.

Yeah, I think the team needs to make a change too.  They could theoretically pull off a pretty big trade without shipping out any top-9 or top-4 type players.

Part of me thinks it might actually send the team a wake up call if they see a member of the young guys cohort get shipped out though.

On the other hand, I kind of think the team is just young.  It’s hard to blame them for not showing the consistency and resilience of a group of hardened veterans.  I know people get sick of hearing it, but it’s just true that they are very young.  I think they need a couple more significant veteran additions.  I’m a bit concerned that they will try to add a couple more rookies (Kulich, Rosen) to the lineup next season.

 

[Thorny]

11 minutes ago, Curt said:

No fun.  We have more interesting discussions when we disagree.

Yeah, I think the team needs to make a change too.  They could theoretically pull off a pretty big trade without shipping out any top-9 or top-4 type players.

Part of me thinks it might actually send the team a wake up call if they see a member of the young guys cohort get shipped out though.

On the other hand, I kind of think the team is just young.  It’s hard to blame them for not showing the consistency and resilience of a group of hardened veterans.  I know people get sick of hearing it, but it’s just true that they are very young.  I think they need a couple more significant veteran additions.  I’m a bit concerned that they will try to add a couple more rookies (Kulich, Rosen) to the lineup next season.

 

I feel like people only get tired of hearing the “youngest team” thing when it’s used under the context of being a defence for the GM. I don’t blame the players at all. They are merely the sum total of what Kevyn Adams committed to record.

The expectation for this season was playoffs because the context of that expectation is analysis of the GM. If the sentence that follows is, “well, it’s an unfair expectation because a poor GM did a bad job assembling the roster, and part of that is the team is too young: I’m all for it 

- - - 

“They aren’t good enough because they are too young” can be true, and still serve as an indictment of the GM. The important thing is that we acknowledge the GM is a bad one. (fine, “Competent” is still on the table, if we can make the playoffs this season somehow)

The ship has more less sailed. A plan that takes 5 years to make the playoffs is a bad plan, and that’s the earliest it’s looking that we can get in. Anyone can sit in the GM chair and do literally nothing, I could literally do it. He’s a bad GM. Can we get to the playoffs under a bad GM? Law of averages says yes: In a league where half make it, ya, we should still be able to get in eventually, one would think, even if he’s on an apparent lifetime term 

Edited December 16, 2023 by Thorny

[Norcal]

Fancy Stat of the day

[Thorny]

1 hour ago, Norcal said:

Fancy Stat of the day

T-18th in even strength points. Pretty darn good 

[nfreeman]

On 12/14/2023 at 3:40 PM, PerreaultForever said:

So you think he's worth Nylander/Reinhart money? Really?

Oh it can "work" but does he give you enough for that money? I don't see him at that level. 

Nylander and Reino are going to get much bigger deals than Mitts will.

The second point, and your separate one about continuing to commit to guys that haven't done anything as a team, are both completely valid and echo my concerns about giving Mitts a fat extension as well.

[tom webster]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

T-18th in even strength points. Pretty darn good 

Am I missing something? Tied for 18th?

[Thorny]

21 minutes ago, tom webster said:

Am I missing something? Tied for 18th?

Yessir.

Tied for 18th with a few others. You didn’t elaborate but I’m inclined to guess your confusion stems from the tweet being about 5 v 5 specifically 

[Ducky]

The Jets would gladly take Mitts off of  your hands if the deal was fair.

@ThornyWe'll give you Copp for Mitts?

Seiously, if he were to be traded, what would you guys expect back (RHD cannot be accommodated)?

[tom webster]

18 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Yessir.

Tied for 18th with a few others. You didn’t elaborate but I’m inclined to guess your confusion stems from the tweet being about 5 v 5 specifically 

Thanks. It’s been a long couple weeks