Casey Mittelstadt's next contract

[PerreaultForever]

Any number over 5 seems too high to me. I was thinking about centers who are 2C/3C depending and the best example of that I could think of was Charlie Coyle who makes 5.25 and no way is Mitts as good so given inflation from the time of signing, giving Mitts 5 would seem like a maximum number to me. 

6 hours ago, Hank said:

I love Mitts as much as you do, but I think he's either signed or moved for a D based on the number/term he wants. Sadly I agree with you on Tuch maybe being the odd man out. I think it's more likely than not Skinners last two years are bought out. I think Kulich and Rosen are on the team next year and Östlund and Savoie will be in Rochester. I think after next season is the earliest KA would trade one of the four, if he trades one at all. 

I don't see Tuch being odd man out. Mitts is more likely to be the guy traded imo because Adams didn't pick him or trade for him. GMs prefer their own so that they can prove themselves to their owners. I'd love a Skinner buy out but I do not see that happening either. 

Depending on how free agency plays out I could see Mitts being a fairly in demand trade chip. 

[mjd1001]

12 hours ago, thewookie1 said:

My hope would be to convince him at 4x5.75mil as it gives him and the Sabres flexibility 

I would love that, but I'm afraid it's going to be a  higher amount than that. Especially with it looking like the cap is going to go up a decent amount the next couple of years.

[LTS]

19 hours ago, sabresparaavida said:

He also leads the team in controlled zone entires, which IMO is a pretty big weakness for this team.

I, for one, am a huge fan of the dump and chase the other team back out of their zone strategy the Sabres use.  😉

[GASabresIUFAN]

10 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

Any number over 5 seems too high to me. I was thinking about centers who are 2C/3C depending and the best example of that I could think of was Charlie Coyle who makes 5.25 and no way is Mitts as good so given inflation from the time of signing, giving Mitts 5 would seem like a maximum number to me. 

Lol.  Coyle’s best season was 8 years ago at 56 points.  With the Bruins Coyle has had 45 and 44 points respectively.  Mitts had 59 last year and is on his way to 70 this season. This is almost as good a comparison as Mitts to Stafford.

100K per point is the starting point on a new contract. Add a premium for 25+ goals and for high end two way play.  

Better comparisons to Mitts are Nik Backstrom or Evgeny Kuznetsov.  These guys are 20-25 goals with 50+ assists most of their careers.  Backstrom had a higher ceiling, but the majority of his career he produced like Mitts is this season.  Mitts is currently on pace for 22 goals 49 assists for 71 points.  A similar player in age and scoring is Kevin Fiala. He had a breakout 33g 85 pts campaign to earn a massive 7yr 7.85 per contract, but has settled in since as a 20g 70 pts guy.  In fact he has nearly identical stats as Mitts this season with 10g 27a.  He had 23g 49a for 72pts last year.

 

[Thorny]

8 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Lol.  Coyle’s best season was 8 years ago at 56 points.  With the Bruins Coyle has had 45 and 44 points respectively.  Mitts had 59 last year and is on his way to 70 this season. This is almost as good a comparison as Mitts to Stafford.

100K per point is the starting point on a new contract. Add a premium for 25+ goals and for high end two way play.  

Better comparisons to Mitts are Nik Backstrom or Evgeny Kuznetsov.  These guys are 20-25 goals with 50+ assists most of their careers.  Backstrom had a higher ceiling, but the majority of his career he produced like Mitts is this season.  Mitts is currently on pace for 22 goals 49 assists for 71 points.  A similar player in age and scoring is Kevin Fiala. He had a breakout 33g 85 pts campaign to earn a massive 7yr 7.85 per contract, but has settled in since as a 20g 70 pts guy.  In fact he has nearly identical stats as Mitts this season with 10g 27a.  He had 23g 49a for 72pts last year.

 

Backstrom isn’t a great comp. He *averaged* 77 points a year. Casey is pacing for 71 during what’s so far a career year. It would be a bastardization of the numbers. And I’m a Casey guy 

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Backstrom isn’t a great comp. He *averaged* 77 points a year. Casey is pacing for 71 during what’s so far a career year. It would be a bastardization of the numbers. And I’m a Casey guy 

But the point is they are more similar to Mitts than Stafford or Charlie Coyle. It’s also why I wrote that Backstrom had a higher ceiling and that a more recent comp is Fiala. 

[Thorny]

In addition, Backstrom averaged a pace of 82 points per his first 6 seasons. Casey has average 45 per, over a similar frame 

[Thorny]

2 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

But the point is they are more similar to Mitts than Stafford or Charlie Coyle. It’s also why I wrote that Backstrom had a higher ceiling and that a more recent comp is Fiala. 

Maybe slightly ya, I just don’t think Backstrom really serves your argument he’s sort of out there. He’s more less in between, but trending closer to Backstrom than Coyle, sure 

[Thorny]

Casey is more less somewhere in between me, and Mario Lemieux 

Closer to Lemieux 

[GASabresIUFAN]

39 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Casey is more less somewhere in between me, and Mario Lemieux 

Closer to Lemieux 

I know you ignored the comparison but Kuznetsov is a very good comparison to Mitts.  For his career he has average .78 pts per game.  If you take out the last two seasons where he has really slowed, his production is .83 pts per game and his goals per game were .26.  Mitts this season is .86 and .27 respectively and over the last season and a half is at .77 and .21.  

By the way, when Tuch signed his 7 year 4.75 mill per season contract in 2019, he was coming off a 20g 52 pt season.  No way Mitts signs for anywhere near that figure.  

[DarthEbriate]

Casey's high for PP min is last season's 171 and Backstrom only had fewer than that in seasons he skated fewer than 60 games. Most season, Backstrom was over 220 PP minutes (more than 3x what Casey had) feeding guys named Ovechkin and Mike Green.

Fiala will be the very top-end of the cap range ($7.875) because he's got a 33-goal season.

But nearly everyone with comparable points to Mitts gets a boatload more PP time than he has received.

If he were to be a UFA instead of RFA this next season, a team could easily sign him as a 2C, give him top PP time, and he'd be a bargain who could be a point per game player every season for the next 4 seasons. Boston would put him between Pasta and Marchand and Mitts would a become a legend.

[Thorny]

7 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I know you ignored the comparison but Kuznetsov is a very good comparison to Mitts.  For his career he has average .78 pts per game.  If you take out the last two seasons where he has really slowed, his production is .83 pts per game and his goals per game were .26.  Mitts this season is .86 and .27 respectively and over the last season and a half is at .77 and .21.  

By the way, when Tuch signed his 7 year 4.75 mill per season contract in 2019, he was coming off a 20g 52 pt season.  No way Mitts signs for anywhere near that figure.  

I didn’t ignore it cause it wasn’t a good comp I just wasn’t interested in responding to something I had nothing to say about 

[Weave]

Just now, Thorny said:

I didn’t ignore it cause it wasn’t a good comp I just wasn’t interested in responding to something I had nothing to say about 

[PerreaultForever]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Lol.  Coyle’s best season was 8 years ago at 56 points.  With the Bruins Coyle has had 45 and 44 points respectively.  Mitts had 59 last year and is on his way to 70 this season. This is almost as good a comparison as Mitts to Stafford.

It's not about POINTS. It's the complete player and everything he brings that I am talking about. We're not talking about a 1C we are looking at a 2C/3C and what that guy has to bring. Your 1C can be all about the point totals and you can even have a one dimensional guy but viewing everyone by the same aspects is a mistake imo. 

Coyle is a far better player than Mitts. Far better. 

[dudacek]

18 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

It's not about POINTS. It's the complete player and everything he brings that I am talking about. We're not talking about a 1C we are looking at a 2C/3C and what that guy has to bring. Your 1C can be all about the point totals and you can even have a one dimensional guy but viewing everyone by the same aspects is a mistake imo. 

Coyle is a far better player than Mitts. Far better. 

Hyperbole, but even if he was, he's not a good contract comparable.

Contracts are usually very much about points, at least at their starting point.

Coyle signed his deal at 28 partway through the final year in a string of 37, 34 and 37 point seasons, where he most recently was probably the Bruins 5 or 6 forward, and wasn't ever going to approach the artificial cap the $6 million trio of Bergeron Marchand and Pastrnak were being underpaid at

Mitts will be signing at 25 coming off seasons of 19 (40ish*), 59 and 70ish*, where he most recently has arguably been the Sabres #1 forward, and isn't going to be taking a significant discount from his $7 million peers Cozens and Thompson — who signed after and during 68-point seasons, respectively.

Mittelstadt's best comparable will be 50-70ish point RFA 3rd contract forwards in their mid-20s getting top 6 minutes signing in the past year or two.

You're looking at guys like these:

https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/active/2024/caphit/all/forwards?signing-status=rfa&arbitration=eligible&contract=standard&extension=yes&stats-season=2023&limits=age-24-27,points-40-130,signingage-24-27

[PerreaultForever]

2 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Hyperbole, but even if he was, he's not a good contract comparable.

Contracts are usually very much about points, at least at their starting point.

Coyle signed his deal at 28 partway through the final year in a string of 37, 34 and 37 point seasons, where he most recently was probably the Bruins 5 or 6 forward, and wasn't ever going to approach the artificial cap the $6 million trio of Bergeron Marchand and Pastrnak were being underpaid at

Mitts will be signing at 25 coming off seasons of 19 (40ish*), 59 and 70ish*, where he most recently has arguably been the Sabres #1 forward, and isn't going to be taking a significant discount from his $7 million peers Cozens and Thompson — who signed after and during 68-point seasons, respectively.

Mittelstadt's best comparable will be 50-70ish point RFA 3rd contract forwards in their mid-20s getting top 6 minutes signing in the past year or two.

You're looking at guys like these:

https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/active/2024/caphit/all/forwards?signing-status=rfa&arbitration=eligible&contract=standard&extension=yes&stats-season=2023&limits=age-24-27,points-40-130,signingage-24-27

So you want to pay Mitts Thompson money? Okay, sure, do that. Enjoy watching the cap space disappear while we stay in the bottom. 

[Thorny]

1 minute ago, PerreaultForever said:

So you want to pay Mitts Thompson money? Okay, sure, do that. Enjoy watching the cap space disappear while we stay in the bottom. 

“So you want to..”

”No! Not want! Not about want. Do, or do not.”

The analysis is based on precedent 

[PerreaultForever]

1 minute ago, Thorny said:

“So you want to..”

”No! Not want! Not about want. Do, or do not.”

The analysis is based on precedent 

Well sorry, but you put up that list as a list of comparables. Thompson is on the list. You're saying that's the kind of money he's earned and thus should get. 

If that is in fact the ask we absolutely have to trade him (or one of Cozens/Thompson). If we don't, our window will be really small and we are too far from winning to create a small window. 

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, PerreaultForever said:

Well sorry, but you put up that list as a list of comparables. Thompson is on the list. You're saying that's the kind of money he's earned and thus should get. 

If that is in fact the ask we absolutely have to trade him (or one of Cozens/Thompson). If we don't, our window will be really small and we are too far from winning to create a small window. 

“Earned” is subjective, but that is the going rate. 

Deciding whether to spend it on Casey, or on a Jacob Markstrom, or on 3 Will Borgens is how the GM earns his pay cheque.

The rest of your post is hyperbole as well.

Adams has created a long-term cost-certainty: none of his core players with the exception of Tuch will be up for raises in the next 6 years as the cap grows by sizable chunks; none appear to be on immovable contracts.

He will have the ability to pick and choose whether to use that space on outsiders or reward homegrown talent, or trade away pieces to accomplish both.

The tough choices won’t be coming until Tuch comes due around the same time you hope  Benson or Quinn takes leap

Signing Mitts to market value now handicaps him in no way shape or form.

The only issue is whether or not his current level of play is a mirage, the way the level of play that “earned” Cozens his deal has been so far.

Edited January 17 by dudacek

[Thorny]

25 minutes ago, dudacek said:

“Earned” is subjective, but that is the going rate. 

Deciding whether to spend it on Casey, or on a Jacob Markstrom, or on 3 Will Borgens is how the GM earns his pay cheque.

The rest of your post is hyperbole as well.

Adams has created a long-term cost-certainty: none of his core players with the exception of Tuch will be up for raises in the next 6 years as the cap grows by sizable chunks; none appear to be on immovable contracts.

He will have the ability to pick and choose whether to use that space on outsiders or reward homegrown talent, or trade away pieces to accomplish both.

The tough choices won’t be coming until Tuch comes due around the same time you hope  Benson or Quinn takes leap

Signing Mitts to market value now handicaps him in no way shape or form.

The only issue is whether or not his current level of play is a mirage, the way the level of play that “earned” Cozens his deal has been so far.

It doesn’t handicap them, but it does make moving him pretty unlikely. If we commit to Mittelstadt long term, it probably means another key roster spot included in our core solidified. Not that he couldn’t be moved, it just wouldn’t reasonably be very likely, at least until towards the end of the deal.

I only mention this because, as I’ve alluded to before, Casey will absolutely be worth what he gets paid, it’s not so much a fear of him living up to it in a vacuum: but rather I think there’s an interesting question at play that should at least be considered, whether the particular combination of talent we have in the core is a good one re: winning.

[dudacek]

11 hours ago, Thorny said:

It doesn’t handicap them, but it does make moving him pretty unlikely. If we commit to Mittelstadt long term, it probably means another key roster spot included in our core solidified. Not that he couldn’t be moved, it just wouldn’t reasonably be very likely, at least until towards the end of the deal.

I only mention this because, as I’ve alluded to before, Casey will absolutely be worth what he gets paid, it’s not so much a fear of him living up to it in a vacuum: but rather I think there’s an interesting question at play that should at least be considered, whether the particular combination of talent we have in the core is a good one re: winning.

Absolutely.

But I think we’d agree that the variable is whether or not we can trade Casey for, say, Charlie Coyle, or some other “now” player you might think we need more.

If the market is offering up some version of Devon Levi and Jiri Kulich, I’m going to stick with Casey, thank you very much.

 

Personally I’d be more than happy to pay Casey, Tage and Dylan $21M a year over the next 6 years.

That’s because that will be responsible budget for your top 3 centres and I believe the trio is and will be better than this year has shown.

As unpopular as I’m sure that opinion will be 😁

[Thorny]

1 minute ago, dudacek said:

Personally I’d be more than happy to pay Casey, Tage and Dylan $21M a year over the next 6 years.

That’s because that will be responsible budget for your top 3 centres and I believe the trio is and will be better than this year has shown.

Ya I agree, I’ve posted almost not at all about the latter two’s failings this year (relative to last season, you know what I mean) - because this was a predictable benefit of the contracts they signed, that we specifically mentioned at the time. Not so much with Dylan, but Tage is STILL well paid just on what he’s doing right now. And like you say, there’s upside.

Of course I’d prefer they were playing better but A)I think it’s hard for a roster to live up to the sum of its parts / for individual players within that sum to be maximized if it/they are working to plug holes elsewhere. Ie I expect production improvement with better roster supplementation which we NEED to do anyways to win, so

and B)they are still really good - not only is there obviously more upside, they are good enough as is for a skilled GM to bridge the gap the rest of the way to playoff roster, which is my only expectation 

[Thorny]

3 minutes ago, Thorny said:

and B)they are still really good - not only is there obviously more upside, they are good enough as is for a skilled GM to bridge the gap the rest of the way to playoff roster, which is my only expectation 

We need a little more Mike Tomlin.

“The Standard is the Standard.”

There’s no reason we don’t have enough to work with any given year if we believe in the personnel we’ve assembled to field a playoff roster. 

Edited January 18 by Thorny

[dudacek]

Just now, Thorny said:

We need a little more Mike Tomlin.

“The Standard is the Standard.”

There’s no reason we don’t have enough to work with any given year if we believe in the personnel who’ve assembled to field a playoff roster. 

I have a ton of respect for Don Granato. I want him to succeed.

I believe this team has more talent than its record shows.

Is it just a matter of time, or the right chemistry move flicking the switch?

Or is one of my premises wrong?

Should this be a case of keeping Jared Bednar or of flipping Bruce Boudreau for Rick Tocchet?

I just don’t know.

[DarthEbriate]

2 hours ago, Thorny said:

“So you want to..”

”No! Not want! Not about want. Do, or do not.”

The analysis is based on precedent 

Precisely.

If Mitts goes to arbitration, the list @dudacek provided is exactly what his rep is going to present. And the Sabres will have to come back with "not as many points!". And all Mitts has to say is, "look at my 3rd line usage and no PP time vs. when I was on the top line and getting PP minutes."

The low end is Boeser (6.6, but he's a volume shooter) and the high end is Fiala (7.8).

But if you go arbitration, he's going to UFA soon after and you might as well trade him because that's what he'll command on the open market for a long-term deal.