Sabres Prospect Updates 23-24

[Brawndo]

Noah Östlund’s SHL Season ended today, he is eligible to report to the Amerks now. 
 

He was held out for injury from the game today though 

[DarthEbriate]

2 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

Noah Östlund’s SHL Season ended today, he is eligible to report to the Amerks now. 
 

He was held out for injury from the game today though 

Some good, some bad in that. It’d be awesome to get him acclimated in a few playoff games. But if he’s dinged up, let him rest, recuperate, and then hit the weights all summer. 

[dudacek]

I saw Kulich, Savoie and Östlund's stats this year run through an NHLe calculator this week: 24, 24 and 28 points respectively over a full NHL season.

[Thorny]

9 hours ago, dudacek said:

I saw Kulich, Savoie and Östlund's stats this year run through an NHLe calculator this week: 24, 24 and 28 points respectively over a full NHL season.

Live look at Kevyn Adams reading the above post -  

[LGR4GM]

9 hours ago, dudacek said:

I saw Kulich, Savoie and Östlund's stats this year run through an NHLe calculator this week: 24, 24 and 28 points respectively over a full NHL season.

Was that Savoie's based on the season he played or projected out to 82 nhl games?

[dudacek]

45 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Was that Savoie's based on the season he played or projected out to 82 nhl games?

Points per game projected over 82 games for each

Edited April 12 by dudacek

[Brawndo]

FWIW a lot of analytics staffs are moving away from NHLe as it has not been translating well across the various leagues 

[dudacek]

1 minute ago, Brawndo said:

FWIW a lot of analytics staffs are moving away from NHLe as it has not been translating well across the various leagues 

Not something I personally put a ton of stock in.

I was actually most interested in the fact of how close the three were using that calculation given how hard it is to compare their three different leagues.

I think we all have our favourites when it comes to playing armchair GM, but until they're all Sabres — or at least Amerks — it's pretty hard to tell which is better kept and which should be dangled.

[Derrico]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

Live look at Kevyn Adams reading the above post -  

Live look at me right now.  Hilarious

 

[Derrico]

9 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Not something I personally put a ton of stock in.

I was actually most interested in the fact of how close the three were using that calculation given how hard it is to compare their three different leagues.

I think we all have our favourites when it comes to playing armchair GM, but until they're all Sabres — or at least Amerks — it's pretty hard to tell which is better kept and which should be dangled.

This is a huge offseason.  Kevin better not sit on his ***** hands again and bring in Eric Johnson thinking that’s enough.  May be time to move one or two of these prospects.  Upper management gets paid a lot of money to figure out who they think will have the best career.  A lot of projection needed but at some point it’s time to move one or two.  I’m not talking Tim Murray style but we have a lot of depth and need help on the big club.  I don’t want this drought stretching to 14 years….

[Weave]

The myth of Tim Murray being the draft capital spendaholic won’t die no matter ho many times it is refuted.

[Derrico]

42 minutes ago, Weave said:

The myth of Tim Murray being the draft capital spendaholic won’t die no matter ho many times it is refuted.

How many times has this been refuted?  Who is refuting it?  He traded a ton of draft capital in his short tenure.  I'm not sure how its even debatable. 

https://www.audacy.com/wgr550/articles/opinion/sabres-still-paying-sins-tim-murray

 

[shrader]

10 minutes ago, Derrico said:

How many times has this been refuted?  Who is refuting it?  He traded a ton of draft capital in his short tenure.  I'm not sure how its even debatable. 

https://www.audacy.com/wgr550/articles/opinion/sabres-still-paying-sins-tim-murray

 

Don’t forget about the prospects. He moved those too. 

[Weave]

2 minutes ago, Derrico said:

How many times has this been refuted?  Who is refuting it?  He traded a ton of draft capital in his short tenure.  I'm not sure how its even debatable. 

https://www.audacy.com/wgr550/articles/opinion/sabres-still-paying-sins-tim-murray

 

Thorny and a couple others have well documented it in these pages.  Jason Botteril was much more responsible for using draft capital in trades than Murray ever was.

Go back and look at the number of drafts picks Murray used on drafting players during his tenure.

In 2014 Murray made 9 draft picks, including 1 first, 3 seconds, 2 thirds

in 2015 he made 6 picks.  He didn’t have a 3rd rounder

In 2016 he made 10 picks, including a 1st, a 2nd, and 2 thirds.

In 2017, 6 picks including a first, 2 seconds, and a third.

 

[dudacek]

21 minutes ago, Derrico said:

How many times has this been refuted?  Who is refuting it?  He traded a ton of draft capital in his short tenure.  I'm not sure how its even debatable. 

https://www.audacy.com/wgr550/articles/opinion/sabres-still-paying-sins-tim-murray

 

I’ve given up responding, but all the homework is on the site somewhere.

He did trade a ton of draft capital, but he also acquired a ton of draft capital.

I believe the net was he acquired more than he dealt. No one remembers Chris Stewart for a 2nd, or Matt Moulson for 2 2nds.

Not sure if this is comprehensive but it will give you a general overview.

http://www.nhltradetracker.com/user/trade_list_by_GM/Tim_Murray/274

 

Edited April 12 by dudacek

[Crusader1969]

Going back over the trades since 2014 , there is only 1 that I truly hate and that's the trade that sent DESLAURIERS to MTL for REDMOND in Oct 2017

most every other trade had at least something positive to come back

trading away McNabb was a mistake but it did bring in Deslauriers, which could have been good if we kept him around   This ignores the fact that Cernak was taken with the 2nd round pick Sabres traded away     So if you assume Sabres have both Cernak and McNabb and developed them  properly, then this becomes a disaster of a trade   
 

McNabb and Cernak for 2years of Deslauriers   👎👎👎👎

Then again what are the odds the Sabres develop them into the players they are today ?

Edited April 12 by Crusader1969

[Buffalonill]

1 hour ago, Crusader1969 said:

Going back over the trades since 2014 , there is only 1 that I truly hate and that's the trade that sent DESLAURIERS to MTL for REDMOND in Oct 2017

most every other trade had at least something positive to come back

trading away McNabb was a mistake but it did bring in Deslauriers, which could have been good if we kept him around   This ignores the fact that Cernak was taken with the 2nd round pick Sabres traded away     So if you assume Sabres have both Cernak and McNabb and developed them  properly, then this becomes a disaster of a trade   
 

McNabb and Cernak for 2years of Deslauriers   👎👎👎👎

Then again what are the odds the Sabres develop them into the players they are today ?

Hi 

 

[Archie Lee]

1 hour ago, Weave said:

Thorny and a couple others have well documented it in these pages.  Jason Botteril was much more responsible for using draft capital in trades than Murray ever was.

Go back and look at the number of drafts picks Murray used on drafting players during his tenure.

In 2014 Murray made 9 draft picks, including 1 first, 3 seconds, 2 thirds

in 2015 he made 6 picks.  He didn’t have a 3rd rounder

In 2016 he made 10 picks, including a 1st, a 2nd, and 2 thirds.

In 2017, 6 picks including a first, 2 seconds, and a third.

 

Murray was hired Jan 9, 2014.  Most of the tear down started before he got here.  The only big piece that he traded was Miller, who along with Ott netted some pieces and a 2015 1st.  As someone else mentioned he also then moved Moulson for a couple of 2nds.

The thing that happened under Murray's watch, and it isn't clear if this was entirely his plan or if he was instructed to accelerate the rebuild and then tried to do so as best he could, is he moved out four players (Armia, Grigorenko, Zadorov and Compher) recently drafted in rd 1 and 2, and the 1st rd picks that we got for Vanek and Miller, and Myers, Stafford, Lemieux and a 2nd, to return Kane, Bogosian, O'Reilly and Lehner.  It's debatable whether he got good value; I would argue no, as I think only O'Reilly was both very good talent and a person without (much) baggage.  At the time of the trade though, it served to do two things:

1.) It negatively impacted our organizational depth

2.) It made us negligibly better in the short-term, which served primarily to drop our draft position in 2016 and 2017.  Now, we might have ended up drafting Olli Juolevi and Cody Glass, but we also could have ended up with Matthew Tkachuk and Cale Makar.

If the argument is that Botterill was worse, I won't quibble.

 

 

 

 

[Weave]

1 hour ago, Archie Lee said:

Murray was hired Jan 9, 2014.  Most of the tear down started before he got here.  The only big piece that he traded was Miller, who along with Ott netted some pieces and a 2015 1st.  As someone else mentioned he also then moved Moulson for a couple of 2nds.

The thing that happened under Murray's watch, and it isn't clear if this was entirely his plan or if he was instructed to accelerate the rebuild and then tried to do so as best he could, is he moved out four players (Armia, Grigorenko, Zadorov and Compher) recently drafted in rd 1 and 2, and the 1st rd picks that we got for Vanek and Miller, and Myers, Stafford, Lemieux and a 2nd, to return Kane, Bogosian, O'Reilly and Lehner.  It's debatable whether he got good value; I would argue no, as I think only O'Reilly was both very good talent and a person without (much) baggage.  At the time of the trade though, it served to do two things:

1.) It negatively impacted our organizational depth

2.) It made us negligibly better in the short-term, which served primarily to drop our draft position in 2016 and 2017.  Now, we might have ended up drafting Olli Juolevi and Cody Glass, but we also could have ended up with Matthew Tkachuk and Cale Makar.

If the argument is that Botterill was worse, I won't quibble.

 

 

 

 

And if the argument is Murray made poor decisions with the assets we had, I won’t quibble either, but he demonstrably did not squander draft picks. He did trade away and acquire them like the currency they are, and he used more to make draft selections than the team was naturally allotted during his tenure.

[Archie Lee]

1 hour ago, Weave said:

And if the argument is Murray made poor decisions with the assets we had, I won’t quibble either, but he demonstrably did not squander draft picks. He did trade away and acquire them like the currency they are, and he used more to make draft selections than the team was naturally allotted during his tenure.

We might be splitting hairs at this point, but if a GM trades a significant amount of prospect and draft capital without achieving the desired outcome, then “squandered” is as good a word as any to describe what they did. Of course, we don’t know how things would have turned out had they stuck with Murray and Bylsma. I think it probably turns out better than it did under Botterill. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, Weave said:

but he demonstrably did not squander draft picks.

Yes he did.  Compare the quality of his draft picks to Jbot and KA.  He drafted horribly.  How many top 3 round busts did he draft?  Nylander, Cornel, Asplund, Guhle, Pu, Fitzgerald, Johansson, Martin, and Karabacek.  In fact, his best top 3 round pick after Eichel & Reinhart is Lemieux and he said he wanted out before he even got here.  TM’s only draft pick on the roster is VO and he is in the pressbox most nights.  

[thewookie1]

Murray will always be known as an overspender, regardless of the facts due to his tendency to throw assets at particular players he wanted to get. For instance, trading 2 2nds for Fasching and Deslauries was very unlikely to pan out. 1 very raw player and a guy switching from D to F. There was potential there but we already had and continued to bring back Bailey and Baptiste which created a logjam in Rochester which was in dire need of a center. The other major example was the Evander Kane and Bogosian deal seeing as he traded two NHLers, a 1st and then some for an injured head case who was literally being shopped around and a disappointing injury riddled defenseman + a throwaway goalie. Effectively it felt like they should of been able to get Bogosian for Myers straight up and that they traded a King’s ransom for a guy WPG wanted to be rid of.

[Thorny]

1 hour ago, Archie Lee said:

We might be splitting hairs at this point, but if a GM trades a significant amount of prospect and draft capital without achieving the desired outcome, then “squandered” is as good a word as any to describe what they did. Of course, we don’t know how things would have turned out had they stuck with Murray and Bylsma. I think it probably turns out better than it did under Botterill. 

No because the particular narrative with Murray isn’t just that he didn’t adequately manage his transactions it’s that he failed them specifically by sacrificing more draft and prospect capital than normal in the process-  which isn’t true 

[GASabresIUFAN]

3 hours ago, thewookie1 said:

Murray will always be known as an overspender, regardless of the facts due to his tendency to throw assets at particular players he wanted to get. For instance, trading 2 2nds for Fasching and Deslauries was very unlikely to pan out. 1 very raw player and a guy switching from D to F. There was potential there but we already had and continued to bring back Bailey and Baptiste which created a logjam in Rochester which was in dire need of a center. The other major example was the Evander Kane and Bogosian deal seeing as he traded two NHLers, a 1st and then some for an injured head case who was literally being shopped around and a disappointing injury riddled defenseman + a throwaway goalie. Effectively it felt like they should of been able to get Bogosian for Myers straight up and that they traded a King’s ransom for a guy WPG wanted to be rid of.

Don't try to argue with the TM apologists.  It's just not worth the effort.   

[Weave]

19 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Don't try to argue with the TM apologists.  It's just not worth the effort.   

This is the height of hyperbole.  Noone is suggesting Murray made good choices.  Demonstrably, he selected poorly, both at the draft, and who he chose to trade for picks/prospects.  But that wasn’t the point of conversation.  The point of conversion was regarding whether Murray traded away too any picks, and it is a fact that he made more draft picks than we were granted through normal means. 

3 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Yes he did.  Compare the quality of his draft picks to Jbot and KA.  He drafted horribly.  How many top 3 round busts did he draft?  Nylander, Cornel, Asplund, Guhle, Pu, Fitzgerald, Johansson, Martin, and Karabacek.  In fact, his best top 3 round pick after Eichel & Reinhart is Lemieux and he said he wanted out before he even got here.  TM’s only draft pick on the roster is VO and he is in the pressbox most nights.  

Noone is arguing about the quality of Murray’s choices.  Do you even context?