2023-24 Sabres Team Preview

[GASabresIUFAN]

 

Edited August 22, 2023 by GASabresIUFAN

[GASabresIUFAN]

Two good points he made.  

1) Sabres were 32nd in Hits per game. (Team leaders - Samuelsson 107 and Dahlin 105)

2) Sabres were 31st in blocked shots. (Team leader - Dahlin 132)

(Note: Lyubushkin was 2nd in blocks with 104 and 3rd in hits with 99)

KA's response - sign Clifton (Hits 208 - Boston's team leader; Blocked shots 120 - 2nd on the Bruins) and sign Eric Johnson (Hits 121 - Avs team leader; blocked shots 102 - 3rd on the Avs).

 

Edited August 22, 2023 by GASabresIUFAN

[mjd1001]

22 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Two good points he made.  

1) Sabres were 32nd in Hits per game. (Team leaders - Samuelsson 107 and Dahlin 105)

2) Sabres were 31st in blocked shots. (Team leader - Dahlin 132)

(Note: Lyubushkin was 2nd in blocks with 104 and 3rd in hits with 99)

KA's response - sign Clifton (Hits 208 - Boston's team leader; Blocked shots 120 - 2nd on the Bruins) and sign Eric Johnson (Hits 121 - Avs team leader; blocked shots 102 - 3rd on the Avs).

 

The Sabers are not a big-hitting team. I won't deny that, but 2 points to keep in mind:

Buffalo is almost notorious around the league for the official scorer in Buffalo Not crediting many hits, for both the Sabres and the opponents. At least a portion of their lack of hits is due to half their games being played in a place where hits aren't awarded statistically.

There is a school of thought that sometimes turning away from the hit at the last minute is better than finishing your check, If finishing your check takes you out of the play. Analyzing Patrice Bergeron's game shows that he would turn away from a lot of hits, but often  it got him back into the play quicker. I think Granato may favor this style of play and I don't necessarily think it's a bad thing.

Edited August 23, 2023 by mjd1001

[Happy Days]

Jordan Greenway had 107 hits

Riley Stillman had 81 hits

Obviously they were only with the Sabres near the end of the season.

Edited August 22, 2023 by Happy Days

[LGR4GM]

12 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

The Sabers are not a big-hitting team. I won't deny that, but 2 points to keep in mind:

Buffalo is almost notorious around the league for the official scorer in Buffalo Not crediting many hits, for both the Sabres and the opponents. At least a portion of their lack of hits is due to half their games being played in a place where hits aren't awarded statistically.

There is a school of thought that sometimes turning away from the hit at the last minute is better than finishing your check, If finishing your check takes you out of the play. Analyzing Patrice Bergeron's game shows that he would turn away from a lot of hits but often but it got him back into the play quicker. I think Granato may favor this style of play and I don't necessarily think it's a bad thing.

Breaking through the hands/arms is better than hitting in most cases to break up plays. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

https://thehockeynews.com/news/predicting-the-nhls-atlantic-division-rankings-in-2023-24
 

Atlantic Division predictions. Tor, Fla, TB, BUF, Ott, Bos, Det, Mon

Quote

 

4. BUFFALO SABRES

In: Erik Johnson (D), Connor Clifton (D), Dustin Tokarski (G)

Out: Vinnie Hinostroza (RW), Ilya Lyubushkin (D), Craig Anderson (G) 

Why they’re picked in this position: The Sabres made very few changes to their 2022-23 roster, but who can blame Buffalo GM Kevyn Adams for wanting to give his group another chance? 

Were it not for their subpar defensive play in 2022-23, the Sabres would’ve gotten into the playoffs on the strength of their dynamic, often-overpowering offense. And this year, with young forwards Dylan Cozens and Tage Thompson and defensemen Owen Power and Rasmus Dahlin leading the way, Buffalo is primed to take the next competitive step and lock up a post-season berth.

Adams did address his defense this summer, adding veteran depth in the form of Johnson and Clifton. Buffalo now has solid top six D-men, and if young goalie Devon Levi comes through as a dependable No. 1 option in net, all the pieces will be in play for the Sabres to leapfrog over a few teams and assert themselves as a blossoming force in the Atlantic. 

Buffalo fans have been aching for a legitimate Cup contender, and while that may be a year or two away, they at least should have playoff action to look forward to next spring. Their youngsters are going to lead the way, and their older players will provide the support and structure a young team needs. Western New York has, at long last, a team to be proud of, and the only question now is how long it will take for the Sabres to ascend to the very top of the Atlantic.

 

 

[SABRES 0311]

Very beginning he talks about playing their game. This is simple but good advice for a young team. Don’t worry about where other teams are in the standings, focus on the next game.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Nhl.com preview of the Sabres

https://www.nhl.com/news/buffalo-sabres-2023-24-season-preview

[GASabresIUFAN]

https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/2023-24-nhl-team-preview-buffalo-sabres
 

Daily Faceoff Sabres Preview.

[LGR4GM]

On 8/21/2023 at 11:38 PM, GASabresIUFAN said:

Two good points he made.  

1) Sabres were 32nd in Hits per game. (Team leaders - Samuelsson 107 and Dahlin 105)

2) Sabres were 31st in blocked shots. (Team leader - Dahlin 132)

(Note: Lyubushkin was 2nd in blocks with 104 and 3rd in hits with 99)

KA's response - sign Clifton (Hits 208 - Boston's team leader; Blocked shots 120 - 2nd on the Bruins) and sign Eric Johnson (Hits 121 - Avs team leader; blocked shots 102 - 3rd on the Avs).

Hits are a poorly counted stats. Buffalo's home arena counts the least amount of hits and no I don't mean just for Buffalo. Every team at keybank has lower hit totals than when they play elsewhere. 

Take a look. 

https://thewincolumn.ca/2021/01/30/breaking-down-the-inconsistencies-in-counting-hits-between-different-nhl-arenas/

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Hits are a poorly counted stats. Buffalo's home arena counts the least amount of hits and no I don't mean just for Buffalo. Every team at keybank has lower hit totals than when they play elsewhere. 

Take a look. 

https://thewincolumn.ca/2021/01/30/breaking-down-the-inconsistencies-in-counting-hits-between-different-nhl-arenas/

We all understand that the “Hit” stat varies.  We get it.  However, KA doesn’t agree.  The 2 D he hired this summer, Clifton and Johnson, are known for hitting people.  They add other attributes as well, such as experience, leadership, skating, PK etc…,but they are primarily known for hitting people,

[steveoath]

Was listening to maintenance day podcast and they were talking about Krebs’ role on 4th line. It got me wondering if long term, Krebs alongside Savoie and Benson would work as a tenacious fast paced, yet defensively responsible scoring line.

 

[dudacek]

The Athletic predicts the Sabres with 87 points, 22nd in the league.

https://theathletic.com/4886371/2023/09/25/buffalo-sabres-season-preview-2023-24/

Everyone loves the Sabres. There probably isn’t a more fun team in the league. A playoff berth would be a fantastic feel-good story that one of the most enthusiastic cities in hockey truly deserves.

We’re not counting it out; there’s a huge amount of upside here. But a lot of internal progression needs to happen without the puck to make it more of a certainty.

Buffalo has improved by leaps and bounds over the last two seasons. It’s possible it’ll do the same this season. But a small step back spent learning to play the right way before taking off as a true Cup contender wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. It’s not the unlikeliest either.

[...]

29 minutes ago, dudacek said:

The Athletic predicts the Sabres with 87 points, 22nd in the league.

https://theathletic.com/4886371/2023/09/25/buffalo-sabres-season-preview-2023-24/

Everyone loves the Sabres. There probably isn’t a more fun team in the league. A playoff berth would be a fantastic feel-good story that one of the most enthusiastic cities in hockey truly deserves.

We’re not counting it out; there’s a huge amount of upside here. But a lot of internal progression needs to happen without the puck to make it more of a certainty.

Buffalo has improved by leaps and bounds over the last two seasons. It’s possible it’ll do the same this season. But a small step back spent learning to play the right way before taking off as a true Cup contender wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. It’s not the unlikeliest either.

Pfft.  What are they predicting the playoff threshold to be?

[inkman]

Am I the only one who refuses to watch videos posted here?  It’s not anything to do with this site or the people posting videos.  I just can’t watch them at work and don’t have enough time outside of work to bother. 

[sabremike]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

The Athletic predicts the Sabres with 87 points, 22nd in the league.

https://theathletic.com/4886371/2023/09/25/buffalo-sabres-season-preview-2023-24/

Everyone loves the Sabres. There probably isn’t a more fun team in the league. A playoff berth would be a fantastic feel-good story that one of the most enthusiastic cities in hockey truly deserves.

We’re not counting it out; there’s a huge amount of upside here. But a lot of internal progression needs to happen without the puck to make it more of a certainty.

Buffalo has improved by leaps and bounds over the last two seasons. It’s possible it’ll do the same this season. But a small step back spent learning to play the right way before taking off as a true Cup contender wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. It’s not the unlikeliest either.

Oh look, it's Dom aka Fancy Stats Jim Cramer!

[Weave]

19 minutes ago, inkman said:

Am I the only one who refuses to watch videos posted here?  It’s not anything to do with this site or the people posting videos.  I just can’t watch them at work and don’t have enough time outside of work to bother. 

Once I’ve read a post, I don’t go back.  So if that video appears during the workday, it never gets revisited.

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 hours ago, dudacek said:

The Athletic predicts the Sabres with 87 points, 22nd in the league.

https://theathletic.com/4886371/2023/09/25/buffalo-sabres-season-preview-2023-24/

Everyone loves the Sabres. There probably isn’t a more fun team in the league. A playoff berth would be a fantastic feel-good story that one of the most enthusiastic cities in hockey truly deserves.

We’re not counting it out; there’s a huge amount of upside here. But a lot of internal progression needs to happen without the puck to make it more of a certainty.

Buffalo has improved by leaps and bounds over the last two seasons. It’s possible it’ll do the same this season. But a small step back spent learning to play the right way before taking off as a true Cup contender wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. It’s not the unlikeliest either.

Even they admit that the pt prediction seems low.  That said there will be growing pains and we have a huge question in goal and our forwards have been allergic to backchecking.  Also the competition in the East to deep. 

Ultimately this prediction won’t age well (as they predicted as well) and the Sabres make the playoffs but it’s not a guarantee.

[LGR4GM]

2 hours ago, dudacek said:

The Athletic predicts the Sabres with 87 points, 22nd in the league.

https://theathletic.com/4886371/2023/09/25/buffalo-sabres-season-preview-2023-24/

Everyone loves the Sabres. There probably isn’t a more fun team in the league. A playoff berth would be a fantastic feel-good story that one of the most enthusiastic cities in hockey truly deserves.

We’re not counting it out; there’s a huge amount of upside here. But a lot of internal progression needs to happen without the puck to make it more of a certainty.

Buffalo has improved by leaps and bounds over the last two seasons. It’s possible it’ll do the same this season. But a small step back spent learning to play the right way before taking off as a true Cup contender wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. It’s not the unlikeliest either.

The real issue IMO is not the internal growth but how Granato has constantly talked about how defense is easier to teach. We saw at the very end of the year Buffalo suddenly could play a tight checking game. Were there issues still, sure, but the comparison that Tage Thompson is Ovechkin are a little off. Tage was bad but not because he wasn't trying. Now, I personally think that Buffalo will be okay but maybe not. The issue with these predictions is that they are based on last year, but that's over and done with. For example the same series predicts Detroit is an 85 pt team. In a lot of ways the Sabres are comparable but in reality they aren't really. 

The other thing I will toss out is that Buffalo has a major advantage over a team like Detroit. No one is really new and they all have bonded and know what the endgame is. I also think that any model struggles with young player improvement, for example in the Athletic piece they talk about how Cozens is bottom 30 defensively but part of that is the Sabres system and part of that is his youth. 

All that said, I think it is a fair look at the flaws this team may show. Can they play a tighter game defensively? Granato would need to be better at that aspect. To me the shooting stuff is of less concern, I feel as though xGF has lost the true meaning. It is comparing an average to something but it is often used to say "this person should be here at this average so they are overachieving" but some guys are always going to better than average shooters. 

Lots of questions for this team. They have a lot of work to do. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

47 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

The other thing I will toss out is that Buffalo has a major advantage over a team like Detroit. No one is really new and they all have bonded and know what the endgame is. I also think that any model struggles with young player improvement, for example in the Athletic piece they talk about how Cozens is bottom 30 defensively but part of that is the Sabres system and part of that is his youth. 

There is a great deal of truth about a team united in their goals.  If you look at the roster 23 of the 25 players vying for a roster spot in Buffalo played for the Sabres last season and the 2 new players have ties to the organization; Clifton with Granato and Johnson to Okposo.  Both should feel part of the group quickly.  That unity is a major reason most believe DG can get them over the hump this coming season.  

[Archie Lee]

3 hours ago, dudacek said:

The Athletic predicts the Sabres with 87 points, 22nd in the league.

https://theathletic.com/4886371/2023/09/25/buffalo-sabres-season-preview-2023-24/

Everyone loves the Sabres. There probably isn’t a more fun team in the league. A playoff berth would be a fantastic feel-good story that one of the most enthusiastic cities in hockey truly deserves.

We’re not counting it out; there’s a huge amount of upside here. But a lot of internal progression needs to happen without the puck to make it more of a certainty.

Buffalo has improved by leaps and bounds over the last two seasons. It’s possible it’ll do the same this season. But a small step back spent learning to play the right way before taking off as a true Cup contender wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. It’s not the unlikeliest either.

 

I enjoy the Athletic projections.  They are meant to generate discussion and I think they do that well.

My summary of what they are saying here is:

- The model is better at predicting regression than progression

- Based on this, they are not anticipating that the Sabres will be better at preventing goals against, but they are anticipating they won't be quite as good as last year at scoring goals.

- The net outcome is that they will be 3-5 points lower in their season ending point-total.

I don't personally agree. It is easy to see how this could play out, though, particularly if the goaltending does not improve.

 

[Crusader1969]

10 hours ago, dudacek said:

The Athletic predicts the Sabres with 87 points, 22nd in the league.

https://theathletic.com/4886371/2023/09/25/buffalo-sabres-season-preview-2023-24/

Everyone loves the Sabres. There probably isn’t a more fun team in the league. A playoff berth would be a fantastic feel-good story that one of the most enthusiastic cities in hockey truly deserves.

We’re not counting it out; there’s a huge amount of upside here. But a lot of internal progression needs to happen without the puck to make it more of a certainty.

Buffalo has improved by leaps and bounds over the last two seasons. It’s possible it’ll do the same this season. But a small step back spent learning to play the right way before taking off as a true Cup contender wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. It’s not the unlikeliest either.

Analytics hate the Sabres.  I’m going to assume their models have a hard time predicting improvement from young players.  

their basic premise is that their defensive play won’t improve and their offensive play will regress and Levi will be avg at best 
 

I think last year they had them in the bottom 3 and under 80 points.  
 

so grain of salt 

 

[PerreaultForever]

26 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

Analytics hate the Sabres.  I’m going to assume their models have a hard time predicting improvement from young players.  

their basic premise is that their defensive play won’t improve and their offensive play will regress and Levi will be avg at best 
 

I think last year they had them in the bottom 3 and under 80 points.  
 

so grain of salt 

 

Well that is a realistic conservative/safe analysis. There's no denying we are rolling the dice on Levi. He could be great, but he is a rookie and could need several years to get it right so saying he will be "average at best" is a safe position. If he's great we can become the surprise team. 

The D is slightly improved but the defense won't be better unless the forwards play better D and our team system gets them to play better D. No signs yet that that'll happen. If it does, offense might suffer though. 

But yes, at this stage it's hard to predict if/when young players will improve and by how much. 

The competition will also matter. I'm watching Ottawa/Toronto right now and Ottawa looks pretty good. Winning 3-2 and Matthews=Marner are playing. Just a preseason game I know, but Ottawa does look improved. It won't be easy to move up the division standings. 

[Taro T]

5 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

Well that is a realistic conservative/safe analysis. There's no denying we are rolling the dice on Levi. He could be great, but he is a rookie and could need several years to get it right so saying he will be "average at best" is a safe position. If he's great we can become the surprise team. 

The D is slightly improved but the defense won't be better unless the forwards play better D and our team system gets them to play better D. No signs yet that that'll happen. If it does, offense might suffer though. 

But yes, at this stage it's hard to predict if/when young players will improve and by how much. 

The competition will also matter. I'm watching Ottawa/Toronto right now and Ottawa looks pretty good. Winning 3-2 and Matthews=Marner are playing. Just a preseason game I know, but Ottawa does look improved. It won't be easy to move up the division standings. 

True.  But the Sabres only need to get ahead of 1 of the Bruins, Lightning, Panthers, or Islanders while staying ahead of Ottawa, Detriot, Pittsburgh, and Washington.  Expecting they should get ahead of 2 of those 4 (NYI & 1 other, not sure which other right now) while staying ahead of at least 3 of those 4 (Karlsson MIGHT be able to will the rest of the over the hill gang through to one final playoff run, but don't expect it; the Otters will be a challenge.  But as long as the Sabres get ahead of 2 of those 4 ahead of them, getting passed by the Otters isn't the end of the world should it happen.)

Personally am expecting the Sabres to be 3rd in the division or the WC1.  But we shall see soon enough.

[PerreaultForever]

5 hours ago, Taro T said:

True.  But the Sabres only need to get ahead of 1 of the Bruins, Lightning, Panthers, or Islanders while staying ahead of Ottawa, Detriot, Pittsburgh, and Washington.  Expecting they should get ahead of 2 of those 4 (NYI & 1 other, not sure which other right now) while staying ahead of at least 3 of those 4 (Karlsson MIGHT be able to will the rest of the over the hill gang through to one final playoff run, but don't expect it; the Otters will be a challenge.  But as long as the Sabres get ahead of 2 of those 4 ahead of them, getting passed by the Otters isn't the end of the world should it happen.)

Personally am expecting the Sabres to be 3rd in the division or the WC1.  But we shall see soon enough.

All of that's true but it's just not going to be easy. We could be a better team than last year and end up with less points. How we do in the close ones might be the difference. We cannot afford to lose too many of the OT/SOs and can't give too many divisional opponents those loser points. Closing games out and holding leads will be vital to our final standings. 

My concern I suppose is I can see things being so close this year that we will see tight playoff style serious hockey earlier than usual and that will be tough. Some of our opponents are built better for that than we are at this time. 

I think it will be an interesting season.