Who’s Next to Re-sign and how long and for how much?

[GASabresIUFAN]

Z, KO are the key UFA’s this off-season.  Jost is the key remaining RFA for this season.  Come July 1st, RFAs for 2023-24 Power, Dahlin, Mitts, Joki, Bryson and UPL can be extended.  Will any of them be extended early or will KA again wait until mid-season next year to start getting these done.  We have a dedicated thread for Dahlin, but it might be worth discussing the merits of extending the others.

I do think Jost and Z will be retained will identical 3yr 2.5 per season deals.  I also think he may extend Krebs in a similar deal this summer to lock up his centers.  The rest I have no idea how KA might handle it.

[Night Train]

Dahlin and then Power. ID the core. 

[tom webster]

They can’t do Dahlin till summer. As I said previously, I expect Z and Jost to be extended although I think two year deals.

[inkman]

As I often like to say, make it a pole, errr…poll.  

[Taro T]

9 minutes ago, tom webster said:

They can’t do Dahlin till summer. As I said previously, I expect Z and Jost to be extended although I think two year deals.

Could see Jost getting either 2 or 3 years.  He really could be the Sabres version of Boston's Paille.  A guy that rounds out the bottom of the roster that had a good pedigree but couldn't live up to 1st round expectations w/ the club that drafted him.  And that's his floor here.  Who knows what happens if Granato works his misfit hockey whisperer magic on him.  His ceiling could be legit middle 6 200' player.

But can't see Girgensons getting 3 at this point.  Expect you're right that his will be a 2 year deal.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

I think Girgs will sign for 2, maybe 3, since he has been a good and loyal soldier through the dark years.  He's a good guy too.

Jost will be signed for 3 years, I think.

Both of these deals will be in the $2.5M / year range.

I think that KO may stay on for 1 year at $3M or may be retained as some kind of good will mascot or something like that.  Then his salary would not count against the cap.  Some kind of arrangement for Anderson I think.

Power will likely be bridged, but the way things have happened recently I would be dead set against it.  Pay him now ... he will be a great top #2 for the Sabres (he may not actually be on the top pairing, but yous know what I mean) and likely a #1 on many other NHL teams ... 7 years $50M.

Mitts and Joker I think will be signed for 3 years each at around $5M per year.

Krebs will be signed to a 2 year deal for $4.5M ($2.25M per year).

Bryson will be signed to a $1M 1 year deal to play in Rochester or someplace when they dump him.

UPL will be signed.  Not sure of the numbers ... is he a #1 now or not quite ??  I expect a 2 or 3 year deal, but no idea about the $s.

[GASabresIUFAN]

I forgot to mention VO’s deal ends after next year.  He’ll be a UFA and I suspect KA won’t re-sign him. Bush is also an UFA after next season and I can see him being retained by KA if we don’t develop a replacement in time such as Komarov or Novikov.  I’m hoping both Russians and Johnson join the Amerks next year and put pressure on the bottom tier D on the Sabres.

I’ve run some numbers and I believe that 2 of Rosen, Savoie and Kulich will be on the Sabres roster to start 2024-25.  To me that means KA will likely move on from Mitts and KO and re-allocate that money toward defense.  

Power is the great mystery. Where will his game be after next season.  Are we talking about a 10g 40+ pt player who plays 24 minutes a night?  If so we are looking at either a bridge like Dahlin’s (3 x $6) or will KA lock him up for 7 x $8 like he did with TnT and Cozens. KA seems to prefer the 7 year extensions.

Joki’s extension is a mystery to me.  Does KA like him enough to keep him or can he be replaced.  Honestly, I’m hoping for a better partner for Power.  We need to upgrade our PK and in zone D and as steady as Joki is he doesn’t move the needle enough in those areas of need to keep him.  

Edited February 8, 2023 by GASabresIUFAN

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Isn't Lube Man a UFA ??  I thought that he was signed as a UFA last summer.

It all depends who develops in the non-NHL-rostered D.

[SHAAAUGHT!!!]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Z, KO are the key UFA’s this off-season.  Jost is the key remaining RFA for this season.  Come July 1st, RFAs for 2023-24 Power, Dahlin, Mitts, Joki, Bryson and UPL can be extended.  Will any of them be extended early or will KA again wait until mid-season next year to start getting these done.  We have a dedicated thread for Dahlin, but it might be worth discussing the merits of extending the others.

I do think Jost and Z will be retained will identical 3yr 2.5 per season deals.  I also think he may extend Krebs in a similar deal this summer to lock up his centers.  The rest I have no idea how KA might handle it.

The only remaining contract negotiations that matter this year are for Dahlin, Power, Levi, and UPL.  

Power should sign his first.  8 for 8.  

Levi should sign his entry level deal next and play the next 2-4 years in Rochester.  The fact the Sabres have no goalies on contract in a 2 years is too enticing to return to college.

Once Levi signs his deal GMKA will move to extend UPL for another 3-4 years promising him the starter role.  I’d like to see a 3 year extension, but it may take 4 to get him to sign.

Dahlin signs his extension on day 1. 

Krebs should see a similar bridge deal that Tage got 2x3.

Sabres also sign Jost to make up for losing Z or Okposo.  Okposo is fine at 1.75x1, and Z at 2.5x2, but either could be replaced by UFA veterans, just hopefully not both of them.  

Bryson hasn’t even earned his current contract yet so no extension there.  

I also don’t expect them to extend Joker until next season, if at all. 

[elijah]

I keep seeing Power estimates around $8M-$9M, doesn’t that seem a touch inflated? Genuinely asking, I’m foreign too and still learning the ELC/bridge/long term contract world 

 

Also, has Mitts moved himself from whipping boy to extend early this off-season in hopes of a bargain deal before he continues to build his game next year? 

[Porous Five Hole]

55 minutes ago, Sabres Fan in NS said:

Isn't Lube Man a UFA ??  I thought that he was signed as a UFA last summer.

It all depends who develops in the non-NHL-rostered D.

He signed a two year deal in July. So we’ve got him for this season and next season. 

[JohnC]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I forgot to mention VO’s deal ends after next year.  He’ll be a UFA and I suspect KA won’t re-sign him. Bush is also an UFA after next season and I can see him being retained by KA if we don’t develop a replacement in time such as Komarov or Novikov.  I’m hoping both Russians and Johnson join the Amerks next year and put pressure on the bottom tier D on the Sabres.

I’ve run some numbers and I believe that 2 of Rosen, Savoie and Kulich will be on the Sabres roster to start 2024-25.  To me that means KA will likely move on from Mitts and KO and re-allocate that money toward defense.  

Power is the great mystery. Where will his game be after next season.  Are we talking about a 10g 40+ pt player who plays 24 minutes a night?  If so we are looking at either a bridge like Dahlin’s (3 x $6) or will KA lock him up for 7 x $8 like he did with TnT and Cozens. KA seems to prefer the 7 year extensions.

Joki’s extension is a mystery to me.  Does KA like him enough to keep him or can he be replaced.  Honestly, I’m hoping for a better partner for Power.  We need to upgrade our PK and in zone D and as steady as Joki is he doesn’t move the needle enough in those areas of need to keep him.  

I'm sure, much to your displeasure, that Granato's assessment of Joki is much higher than your assessment of him. Every time I hear him talk about Joki it is to praise his play with the added comment that there is more upside to him. Power is becoming an important backstop for the defense. He credits Joki's supportive play for his quick adaptation and advancement. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

3 minutes ago, JohnC said:

I'm sure, much to your displeasure, that Granato's assessment of Joki is much higher than your assessment of him. Every time I hear him talk about Joki it is to praise his play with the added comment that there is more upside to him. Power is becoming an important backstop for the defense. He credits Joki's supportive play for his quick adaptation and advancement. 

That doesn’t preclude Joki anchoring the 3rd pair and getting a better partner for Power.  The Sabres give up 3.4 goals per game.  That has to improve.  Our PK is near the bottom of the NHL.  Goaltending is part of the problem, but so is 50% of the D group.  I’m glad Joki has helped Power, but that make him good enough to be his partner long-term.

 

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, elijah said:

I keep seeing Power estimates around $8M-$9M, doesn’t that seem a touch inflated? Genuinely asking, I’m foreign too and still learning the ELC/bridge/long term contract world 

 

Also, has Mitts moved himself from whipping boy to extend early this off-season in hopes of a bargain deal before he continues to build his game next year? 

If Power does go LT w/ the next deal, it likely is for less than you're proposing because a lot of that contract will be years that he'd remain an RFA.  Not significantly lower, but likely lower.

 

Where Mittelstadt fits in is a great Q.  As recently as last season, he was viewed as one of the face of the franchise players by the Sabres.  Granato never gave up on him & w/ the acquisition of Jost, he's finally been put into the role they envisioned for him heading into the season.  Would expect to see him get a 4 year deal w/ minimal no trade/no movement clauses.  Keeps borh sides options open in the LT.

[Buffalonill]

I forgot power burned a year of his contract .

Hopefully we can do something pretty  clever like a 5 million for 7 .

But I'll give that a 1% lol

 

[LabattBlue]

I expect Krebs to take over the 3C role next season. Therefore Jost and Girgs are both on the 4th line. Neither of them warrant 3 year deals.  They both get 2 year 4 mil offers(2 mil cap hit).  If they don’t accept, see ya. 

[Thorny]

3 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I forgot to mention VO’s deal ends after next year.  He’ll be a UFA and I suspect KA won’t re-sign him. Bush is also an UFA after next season and I can see him being retained by KA if we don’t develop a replacement in time such as Komarov or Novikov.  I’m hoping both Russians and Johnson join the Amerks next year and put pressure on the bottom tier D on the Sabres.

I’ve run some numbers and I believe that 2 of Rosen, Savoie and Kulich will be on the Sabres roster to start 2024-25.  To me that means KA will likely move on from Mitts and KO and re-allocate that money toward defense.  

Power is the great mystery. Where will his game be after next season.  Are we talking about a 10g 40+ pt player who plays 24 minutes a night?  If so we are looking at either a bridge like Dahlin’s (3 x $6) or will KA lock him up for 7 x $8 like he did with TnT and Cozens. KA seems to prefer the 7 year extensions.

Joki’s extension is a mystery to me.  Does KA like him enough to keep him or can he be replaced.  Honestly, I’m hoping for a better partner for Power.  We need to upgrade our PK and in zone D and as steady as Joki is he doesn’t move the needle enough in those areas of need to keep him.  

I’d imagine they right the Dahlin wrong and lock up Power LT coming off his ELC

Edited February 8, 2023 by Thorny

[Thorny]

2 hours ago, elijah said:

I keep seeing Power estimates around $8M-$9M, doesn’t that seem a touch inflated? Genuinely asking, I’m foreign too and still learning the ELC/bridge/long term contract world 

 

Also, has Mitts moved himself from whipping boy to extend early this off-season in hopes of a bargain deal before he continues to build his game next year? 

It admittedly does seem odd that we’re getting 8.5 projections for Power off an ELC and 9.5 projections for Dahlin coming off two bridges. I don’t see any way those valuations jive unless they really are doing the shiny-happy-people-holding-hands thing

[Curt]

56 minutes ago, Thorny said:

It admittedly does seem odd that we’re getting 8.5 projections for Power off an ELC and 9.5 projections for Dahlin coming off two bridges. I don’t see any way those valuations jive unless they really are doing the shiny-happy-people-holding-hands thing

I was just looking at this.  Very high draft pick defensemen (maybe it shouldn’t matter, but it probably does for such a young player) who put up good but not great offensive numbers, such as Ekblad and Heiskanen, signed 8 yr deals off their ELC’s for a cap hit in the 10-10.5% range.  I’d expect something like that for Power, which puts him in the area of $8.5.  It’s also going to depend in part on what Power does over the next 12 months though.

But I also think that $9.75M for Dahlin is wishful thinking.  That would be a sweetheart deal.  I feel $10.5M+ is a more realistic expectation.

[DarthEbriate]

The good news about the Dahlin contract is that it will be well-deserved. The good thing about the Power contract is that he won’t have PP1 point production. He’ll easily get the 7.5 but won’t have the stats to match Dahlin. 

As to the thread topic itself, it’s KO. Old Dad Kposobi needs to set his future and you build the team from there. 2x$3 for a sunset ride to a Cup run in the summer of 2025. 

[JohnC]

3 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

That doesn’t preclude Joki anchoring the 3rd pair and getting a better partner for Power.  The Sabres give up 3.4 goals per game.  That has to improve.  Our PK is near the bottom of the NHL.  Goaltending is part of the problem, but so is 50% of the D group.  I’m glad Joki has helped Power, but that make him good enough to be his partner long-term.

 

If a better player can be brought in to move him down a pairing, that would be fine. Certainly, no one would be against that. That's not the case now, or probably the near future. If you want the organization to be aggressive to add to the second pairing, then it is going to be costly. From what I have seen from KA and how he handles contracts, I just don't see him paying the price $$$ to the position you find troubling. 

[Sabres Fan in NS]

4 hours ago, Thorny said:

It admittedly does seem odd that we’re getting 8.5 projections for Power off an ELC and 9.5 projections for Dahlin coming off two bridges. I don’t see any way those valuations jive unless they really are doing the shiny-happy-people-holding-hands thing

Huh ??

[Thorny]

2 hours ago, Sabres Fan in NS said:

Huh ??

He needs to cross 2 bridges every day on the way to the rink from his house 

- - - 

He’s recently dated and ended relationships with 2 of Jeff Bridges’ sisters

- - - 

I believe he was given 2 bridge deals but I could be wrong 

[Thorny]

^ That IS wrong. No idea why but I thought Botterill bridged him for some reason. Wow that’s a serious case of Mandela effect for me tbh 

Actually no it’s not: I was mixing his contract situation up with Reinhart’s and how he got bridges from both GMs 

derp.

Edited February 9, 2023 by Thorny

[Figster]

This cat ;  )