Our top line has been bad to start

[LGR4GM]

Skinner Thompson Olofsson has been bad to start the year. How bad? Well...

 

They are 16th, 17th, and 18th in xgf% on this team. 

[mjd1001]

Interesting, but it is a small sample size.

The problem with that line for me is that Skinner and Olofsson are pure finishers.  Its great they finish in different ways (Olofsson has that 5-15 foot shot and Skinner is honestly a good-handed garbage man), but neither really carries play, neither carries the puck well through the neutral zone, neither battles and wins along the boards.  I'm all for putting them on the same line on the PP, where they can score goals different ways but I don't think their skills complement each other 5-on-5. (unless Tage is going to just dominate the puck through the neutral zone and control it in the offensive zone all the time.)

Krebs is who I think needs to step up the most.  In 2 of the goals scored against the Sabres so far this year, his play was lacking. Not lack of effort, but his lack of speed/positioning and his inability to control/win battles along the boards.

Edited October 16, 2022 by mjd1001

[Archie Lee]

26 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

Intersting, but it is a small sample size.

The problem with that line for me is that Skinner and Olofsson are pure finishers.  Its great they finish in different ways (Olofsson has that 5-15 foot shot and Skinner is honestly a good-handed garbage man), but neither really carries play, neither carries the puck well through the neutral zone, neither battles and wins along the boards.  I'm all for putting them on the same line on the PP, where they can score goals different ways but I don't think their skills complement each other 5-on-5. (unless Tage is going to just dominate the puck through the neutral zone and control it in the offensive zone all the time.)

Krebs is who I think needs to step up the most.  In 2 of the goals scored against the Sabres so far this year, his play was lacking. Not lack of effort, but his lack of speed/positioning and his inability to control/win battles along the boards.

I agree with the bolded.  Skinner thrives with a shooter.  For Thompson to shoot he needs the puck in the offensive zone.  To do that he needs a winger who helps flips the ice and retrieve pucks.  Skinner/Thompson/Tuch just makes sense.

I think Asplund is possibly being wasted on a "4th line".  I think Asplund/Mittelstadt/Olofsson works.

Of course, there is a tendency today to treat the start of the NHL season like it is the first couple weeks of the college football season where you can legitimately say if our QB doesn't get it together soon the season is lost.  The start of this season for Skinner/Thompson/Olofsson is more like an MLB team's 4-5-6 hitters going through the season's first series hitting a combined .125.  If it continues the season is sunk. But your 4-5-6 hitters are not hitting .125 over 162 games.   Skinner/Thompson/Olofsson is not a well constructed line in my view, but they are not going 82 games with an average xGF% of 22.

 

Edited October 16, 2022 by Archie Lee

[Pimlach]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Skinner Thompson Olofsson has been bad to start the year. How bad? Well...

 

They are 16th, 17th, and 18th in xgf% on this team. 

Interesting data.  It’s supports what we see relative to the lack of production for the first line after 2 games.   
 

It will be interesting to see if DG makes a change soon. 
 

It doesn’t support all the negative comments on Krebs.  Would that show in xGA% numbers?  
 

 

 

[DarthEbriate]

I want to give STTVO one road game so see if they relax or get a spark, but I'm also of the mind that the opposition is being extra diligent to take away Skinner/TT space. VO is a crafty guy and makes good passes to them into space, but he's not a transition or puck carrier. That's Tuch.

Historical note: STTVO worked last year. After the initial hot start and then VO's injury, this top line was united and Tage/Skinner did really well from it. VO hung around and continued to get assists until Tuch arrived and the line looked great as well. Then, at season's end, after VO was able to shoot, HCDG reunited STTVO and finished the season strongly as well. So this is a known and successful commodity and it allows Tuch to be the puck carrier for another line. That said, Skinner/TT can put up 70 goals between them and if that needs Tuch, then by golly, Tuch it up.

[nfreeman]

2 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

Interesting, but it is a small sample size.

The problem with that line for me is that Skinner and Olofsson are pure finishers.  Its great they finish in different ways (Olofsson has that 5-15 foot shot and Skinner is honestly a good-handed garbage man), but neither really carries play, neither carries the puck well through the neutral zone, neither battles and wins along the boards.  I'm all for putting them on the same line on the PP, where they can score goals different ways but I don't think their skills complement each other 5-on-5. (unless Tage is going to just dominate the puck through the neutral zone and control it in the offensive zone all the time.)

Krebs is who I think needs to step up the most.  In 2 of the goals scored against the Sabres so far this year, his play was lacking. Not lack of effort, but his lack of speed/positioning and his inability to control/win battles along the boards.

The bolded is spot on, IMHO.  Yesterday I kept thinking that TT and Skinner need someone who plays with force, and VO, although I like his game, is not that guy.  Tuch is that guy, which I think is the reason that DG has him with Mitts and Quinn, who also need someone with that quality.

 

1 hour ago, Archie Lee said:

I agree with the bolded.  Skinner thrives with a shooter.  For Thompson to shoot he needs the puck in the offensive zone.  To do that he needs a winger who helps flips the ice and retrieve pucks.  Skinner/Thompson/Tuch just makes sense.

I think Asplund is possibly being wasted on a "4th line".  I think Asplund/Mittelstadt/Olofsson works.

 

This might be the solution.  Aspy plays a fairly forceful game and has good chemistry with VO.  That would enable Tuch to go back to TT and Skinner.

[dudacek]

51 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

. 
 

It doesn’t support all the negative comments on Krebs.  Would that show in xGA% numbers?  
 

 

 

I think Krebs and Jokiharju have moved into that territory where any mistakes they make are going to be magnified because some fans have become fixated on a certain type of mistake each player makes too often, rather than the whole picture of their games.

Krebs’ expected goals for is one thing being overlooked. Jokiharju not being on the ice for a goal against yet (+4) is another.

Krebs made the best pass of the game to set up Dahlin in game one. Jokiharju sprang Tuch with a beauty in game 2. People are choosing not to talk about these plays. Instead, they talk about a pass to Krebs’ feet that a forechecking forward pounced on, or Jokiharju not being good enough to cover for Power’s yips.

Both players have things to work on. Neither has been bad.

Edited October 16, 2022 by dudacek

[Taro T]

8 hours ago, dudacek said:

I think Krebs and Jokiharju have moved into that territory where any mistakes they make are going to be magnified because some fans have become fixated on a certain type of mistake each player makes too often, rather than the whole picture of their games.

Krebs’ expected goals for is one thing being overlooked. Jokiharju not being on the ice for a goal against yet (+4) is another.

Krebs made the best pass of the game to set up Dahlin in game one. Jokiharju sprang Tuch with a beauty in game 2. People are choosing not to talk about these plays. Instead, they talk about a pass to Krebs’ feet that a forechecking forward pounced on, or Jokiharju not being good enough to cover for Power’s yips.

Both players have things to work on. Neither has been bad.

Probably the wrong thread for this discussion, but believe Mittelstadt should be added to the list of Krebs & Jokiharju.  (Realize you didn't add him because you aren't sold on Mitts but Granato is, and he is in an extremely similar place as the other 2.)

W/ all 3, Granato sees the potential of what they can be and is doing what he can to give them opportunities to unlock it.  And whether the fans agree or not, Granato is going to stick to his guns.

Jokiharju is very good on the PK.  Probably their 2nd best D-man there behind only Samuelsson.  But he hasn't translated that into in-zone 5v5 play.  (Don't care that he hasn't been out for a 5v5 against, if not for Anderson & Comrie he easily could've (& probably should've) been out there for 5 against.)  He's gotten MUCH better at picking his spots to pinch in the offensive zone in the last year, but still joins the rush too early at the onset of transition which IMHO is a big part of the issues we we seeing w/ Power these 1st 2 games.  He is NOT there as the safety valve for Power should he get pressure & not see a lane to a F. 

But he can have good vision as the assist to Tuch demonstrated and he can grow into a true 4.  Granato sees that & keeps giving him opportunity because of that.

Krebs is almost reckless in his fearlessness and backchecks hard.  He can make really sweet passes as his assist to Dahlin against the Otters demonstrated.  But he still doesn't realize how good NHLers are at picking off passes & he won't trust his shot presumably because he knows he can't overpower NHL goalies.  He needs to get better at picking his spots in both regards and when he figures out that a disguised shot doesn't have to be a Thompson rocket to find the twinehe will finally start to score at a reasonable rate.

Granato trusts that he'll figure that out by getting more experience.

Mitts battles harder than people realize and is actually pretty decent at being in the right place defensively.  He's no longer that golden lab pup looking for a ball when he doesn't have the puck that he was his 1st full year in Buffalo.

But he still gets too many passes intercepted and still tends to lose the puck trying to get through the 3rd defender when a pass might be the better choice.  But the puck finds him a LOT & expect Granato sees him click on those passes in practice & has flat out said he expects them to start connecting in games.  When Cozens rolled to the Mitts line because Quinn was looking like the rookie Reinhart on O'Reilly line - just overmatched against the top 2 lines & pairings that 2nd offensive line is facing, Mitts was the center.  Even before Comrie FINALLY got pulled for the extra man (about 2 minutes later than he should've been IMHO as Thompson's line had possession deep w/ just over 3 minutes to go) the extra F was Mitts.

(There are other issues all 3 need to work on, but the point of this wasn't to beat on any of them.)  

Will any/all of the 3 become what Granato sees in them?  (3/4 D, play driving middle 6 C/W, & 2C)  No clue.  But until they get there or Granato gets convinced they can't/won't be, there will be a lot of posts complaining about whichever 1 happens to be that particular poster's personal whipping boy.

 

Edited October 17, 2022 by Taro T
Fixed a couple of typos.

[matter2003]

It's two games. Won't be worried until it reaches 15 or so

[Carmel Corn]

Prefer the TT, Skinner and TUCH combination.  I'd like to see Donnie keep them together and encourage TT to carry the puck more like last season.  Looked like they played together in the 3rd and hope it stays that way.

Wondering if Cozens could be more impactful as a power forward like Tuch on another line.

Nothing against Victor, but he's a 3rd line player in my lineup.  

[DarthEbriate]

4 hours ago, dudacek said:

I think Krebs and Jokiharju have moved into that territory where any mistakes they make are going to be magnified because some fans have become fixated on a certain type of mistake each player makes too often, rather than the whole picture of their games.

Krebs’ expected goals for is one thing being overlooked. Jokiharju not being on the ice for a goal against yet (+4) is another.

Krebs made the best pass of the game to set up Dahlin in game one. Jokiharju sprang Tuch with a beauty in game 2. People are choosing not to talk about these plays. Instead, they talk about a pass to Krebs’ feet that a forechecking forward pounced on, or Jokiharju not being good enough to cover for Power’s yips.

Both players have things to work on. Neither has been bad.

The other thing we all need to remember on Joker is that he, too, is a youngster by NHL defense standards. He's only 23 and has played 60 fewer career games than Dahlin has (and also had to redo his game through the Krueger debacle). The entire top 4 is youngsters who all need a couple more seasons to grow into veterans. Even Muel has a long way to go to round out his game.

At any rate, gotta give the entire team a couple more games given their current practice setup before making any massive lineup changes. You can always make tweaks shift-to-shift.

[LGR4GM]

13 hours ago, DarthEbriate said:

The other thing we all need to remember on Joker is that he, too, is a youngster by NHL defense standards. He's only 23 and has played 60 fewer career games than Dahlin has (and also had to redo his game through the Krueger debacle). The entire top 4 is youngsters who all need a couple more seasons to grow into veterans. Even Muel has a long way to go to round out his game.

At any rate, gotta give the entire team a couple more games given their current practice setup before making any massive lineup changes. You can always make tweaks shift-to-shift.

We should give them 10-15 games. It's just interesting to start the season.

[nfreeman]

 

[Curt]

1 hour ago, nfreeman said:

 

“Krebs leads the team in face of percentage”???  81.82%???

He has taken one face off.

What is actually is is the Krebs leads the team in % of shifts starting with an offensive zone face off.

[RochesterExpat]

On 10/16/2022 at 11:50 AM, nfreeman said:

Yesterday I kept thinking that TT and Skinner need someone who plays with force, and VO, although I like his game, is not that guy.  Tuch is that guy, which I think is the reason that DG has him with Mitts and Quinn, who also need someone with that quality.

I agree with this, but I would consider moving Peterka to pair with Mitts and Quinn if I'm shifting Tuch back to TT and Skinner. That opens up pairing VO with Cozens which I think would work.

The biggest play drivers on this team are Tuch and Cozens (Girgensons too but in a different context). Peterka played that role in the AHL and appears to be playing well in the NHL in the first two games. It might be worth it to see if he can play the role of a driver in the NHL. It also pairs Quinn with someone he is used to playing with and might help with his confidence.

[Weave]

1 hour ago, RochesterExpat said:

I agree with this, but I would consider moving Peterka to pair with Mitts and Quinn if I'm shifting Tuch back to TT and Skinner. That opens up pairing VO with Cozens which I think would work.

The biggest play drivers on this team are Tuch and Cozens (Girgensons too but in a different context). Peterka played that role in the AHL and appears to be playing well in the NHL in the first two games. It might be worth it to see if he can play the role of a driver in the NHL. It also pairs Quinn with someone he is used to playing with and might help with his confidence.

I agree with the bolded.  Maybe add Okposo.  Mitts seems like he should be a play driver, but I haven’t seen much of it after seeing flashes of it his rookie season.

In what little I saw him play, JJP sure looked like a play driver in Roc last season.  I’ll have to pay more attention.  Quinn wasn’t the play driver, but his overall game was better in Roc.

[Thorny]

6 hours ago, Weave said:

I agree with the bolded.  Maybe add Okposo.  Mitts seems like he should be a play driver, but I haven’t seen much of it after seeing flashes of it his rookie season.

In what little I saw him play, JJP sure looked like a play driver in Roc last season.  I’ll have to pay more attention.  Quinn wasn’t the play driver, but his overall game was better in Roc.

Thompson, Dahlin 

They’d have had the best play driving numbers last year I’d imagine. Tuch around there as well. Cozens could be becoming that this season but he wasn’t on their level last year 

Girgs and KO drive play well within a checking line context, but aren’t the type of guys who lead your team in impact play if you are good 

Edited October 18, 2022 by Thorny

[Weave]

Thorny, the context is, if Thompson needs Tuch on his line, he may not be the play driver we thought.

[Curt]

1 hour ago, Weave said:

Thorny, the context is, if Thompson needs Tuch on his line, he may not be the play driver we thought.

I think it’s going down the wrong path if people are formulating the idea that Thompson NEEDS Tuch to be productive.

Last season, Thompson had more even strength points without Tuch on his line than with him.  Skinner-Thompson-Olofsson scored an lot early last season.

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, Curt said:

I think it’s going down the wrong path if people are formulating the idea that Thompson NEEDS Tuch to be productive.

Last season, Thompson had more even strength points without Tuch on his line than with him.  Skinner-Thompson-Olofsson scored an lot early last season.

Are you sure? The stat I’ve seen over and over again was that TNT scored 28 of his 38 once he was paired with Tuch.

When I look at the Sabres I see only 3 guys I would classify as playmakers Tuch, Krebs and Mitts.  Skinner and TNT need a playmaker. 

[Curt]

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Are you sure? The stat I’ve seen over and over again was that TNT scored 28 of his 38 once he was paired with Tuch.

When I look at the Sabres I see only 3 guys I would classify as playmakers Tuch, Krebs and Mitts.  Skinner and TNT need a playmaker. 

https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/players/tage-thompson#lines
 

Stats are here.  Maybe I should have phrased it as “Thompson had more ES points without Tuch on the ice than with him on the ice.”  50 ES points, 24 w/Tuch, 26 without.

Both things can be true.  When was Thompson paired with Tuch, around game 30, right?  Thompson had 8 of his 26 ES goals before Tuch.  So he was on pace for something like 21 ES goals before Tuch joined his line.

[Thorny]

11 hours ago, Weave said:

Thorny, the context is, if Thompson needs Tuch on his line, he may not be the play driver we thought.

I’m still looking at the body of work from last season over the 2 game sample size thus far 

Could change 

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

I’m still looking at the body of work from last season over the 2 game sample size thus far 

Could change 

Same, I'm not overly concerned