Sabres Sign Tage Thompson to a 7 year 50 Million Dollar Contract Extension

[GASabresIUFAN]

12 minutes ago, Curt said:

Yes, that’s always a big concern when these players become RFAs just 1 year away from UFA.  That’s what was hanging over Buffalo’s head when they decided to trade Reinhart, and that’s the reason that Tkachuk was traded from Calgary.

The Reinhart and Tkachuk situations were very different.  Both guys had already proved themselves over multiple seasons.  The Sabres should have locked up Reinhart long before he got to the point he needed to be traded.  Also both players wanted out for good reasons.  The Sabres with constant coaching and management changes stunk and Reinhart wanted to move on.  Tkachuk wanted out of Canada (among other issues).  

Tage is now a key piece of a club heading in the right direction with a coach he likes a GM committed to doing the rebuild properly.  He’s also has had only one good year.  

Edited September 6, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[Curt]

1 minute ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

The Reinhart and Tkachuk situations were very different.  Both guys had already proved themselves over multiple seasons.  The Sabres should have locked up Reinhart long before he got to the point he needed to be traded.  Also both players wanted out for good reasons.  The Sabres with constant coaching and management changes stunk and Reinhart wanted to move on.  Tkachuk wanted out of Canada (among other issues).  

Tage is now a key piece of a club heading in the right direction with a coach he likes a GM committed to doing the rebuild properly.  He’s also has had only one good year.  

Sure, the players are not equally proven, and the risk of letting a guy get that close to UFA is going to vary with each unique situation.  I was just making an overarching point that the general situation is always somewhat risky.

[LGR4GM]

36 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I get the above consideration added some pressure on KA to get a deal done, but how much really?  Could Tage eventually had walked if they did a shorter deal. Absolutely.  However as the Bills, Atlanta Braves and hockey teams like TB have shown the likelihood of a player wanting to leave decreases with winning and a good team culture to go with it.  If this team takes the next step, no way Tage walks if he is part of the core of a close knit winning team even after an arbitration case.  Also this team is designed for some of these guys to move on.  That’s why KA drafted 3 centers in the 1st rd this year. Even without Tage, the current team would still have Mitts, Cozens and Krebs down the middle.

I would have waited to at least mid-season to see if Tage continued his high level of play before re-signing him.  KA actually did the bold thing and locked him up.  I hope this works and Tage rewards the team and the fans with a 40g 80+ pt season.  

Im tired of playing this game though. It is always, "well we have these other centers so we could move on if needed" yet none of those listed guys have come close to Tage's production. Mitts is already being talked about at wing and Krebs finished on the wing last year. Kulich is most likely a NHL winger, not a center so that gives us what? Mitts (maybe), Cozens, Savoie, and Östlund. You need at least 1 in this scenario to get 35g and almost 70pts in their prime to replace Tage. I would rather bet on the guy that did it once.

[dudacek]

I think we all agree the team needs to identify which of the young guys are core and lock them up to long-term value deals.

The debate is this player at that contract.

Because every time Adams tries to lock up a guy long-term at value, we will be repeating this conversation. In order to get a value deal, you have to inherently take risks.

Proven guys are going to get market value or they won’t sign.

[Taro T]

55 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Im tired of playing this game though. It is always, "well we have these other centers so we could move on if needed" yet none of those listed guys have come close to Tage's production. Mitts is already being talked about at wing and Krebs finished on the wing last year. Kulich is most likely a NHL winger, not a center so that gives us what? Mitts (maybe), Cozens, Savoie, and Östlund. You need at least 1 in this scenario to get 35g and almost 70pts in their prime to replace Tage. I would rather bet on the guy that did it once.

 

And Cozens gets talked about at W too.  The team might have 9 legit C's 3 years from now or 2.

The people that hate this deal are really looking at it from an '22-'23 perspective rather than when the deal will be in place and aren't merely expecting him to drop to typical 2C #'s (which is possible, though IMHO would be a bit of a surprise) but rather back to 3rd liner results.  Which would be a surprise should he stay at C.

It's a 2C deal and might be setting the F contract level/value until the cap begins to skyrocket in 2-3 years.  Waiting a 1/2 year or a full one was the greater risk IMHO.

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Im tired of playing this game though. It is always, "well we have these other centers so we could move on if needed" yet none of those listed guys have come close to Tage's production. Mitts is already being talked about at wing and Krebs finished on the wing last year. Kulich is most likely a NHL winger, not a center so that gives us what? Mitts (maybe), Cozens, Savoie, and Östlund. You need at least 1 in this scenario to get 35g and almost 70pts in their prime to replace Tage. I would rather bet on the guy that did it once.

None of those guys have close to Tage's production yet!  However all are ahead of him based on their ages and games played.

Prior to last season through age 23, Tage's played 145 games 18g 17a for 35 pts.  (.24 pts/gp)

Mitts through age 23; 195 games 33g 47a for 80 pts (.41 pts/gp)

Cozens through age 20; 120 games 17g 34a for 51 pts (.425 pts/gp)

Krebs through age 21; 61 games 7g 16a for 23 pts (.38 pts/gp)

Honestly I have more faith in one of these 3 making a big step forward soon then I would have been on Tage making the leap. I think it's more likely that not, that at least 2 and maybe all three take a huge leap forward this coming season.  Honestly they all have more raw talent than Tage and that is not to disparage Tage.

Also I don't give a crap about what people say about players positions going forward.  Back in the day Briere and Hecht floated between center and wing depending on injuries or matchups.  Today is DG's "position less" system, the who playing where is less important than who plays with whom.  DG is probably going to experiment with all 3 of Krebs, Cozens and Mitts at center or wing until he gets the chemistry he wants, and even if we moved on from Tage (which we obviously aren't going to do any time soon) we'd still have a very talented forward group with 5 players (including Asplund and Z) who can play center if necessary.  A top 9 of Mitts, Cozens, Krebs, Skinner, VO, JJP, Quinn, Tuch and Asplund (or Vinnie or KO) would still probably be the most talented team we have had in a decade.  

Ultimately, I think there are a plethora of reasons KA should have waited to give Tage a big contract.  Ultimately he gambled and hopefully it will work out.  

I'm still waiting for someone to point a contract similar to Tage's that worked out.  Pastrank doesn't apply because he was younger by a few years and already had productive seasons with shooting % of 10.8 and 13.9 prior to his breakout. A 30 goal season with a 13% wasn't a huge surprise once given a bigger role.  

 

Edited September 6, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[Curt]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

None of those guys have close to Tage's production yet!  However all are ahead of him based on their ages and games played.

Prior to last season through age 23, Tage's played 145 games 18g 17a for 35 pts.  (.24 pts/gp)

Mitts through age 23; 195 games 33g 47a for 80 pts (.41 pts/gp)

Cozens through age 20; 120 games 17g 34a for 51 pts (.425 pts/gp)

Krebs through age 21; 61 games 7g 16a for 23 pts (.38 pts/gp)

Honestly I have more faith in one of these 3 making a big step forward soon then I would have been on Tage making the leap. I think it's more likely that not, that at least 2 and maybe all three take a huge leap forward this coming season.  Honestly they all have more raw talent than Tage and that is not to disparage Tage.

Also I don't give a crap about what people say about players positions going forward.  Back in the day Briere and Hecht floated between center and wing depending on injuries or matchups.  Today is DG's "position less" system, the who playing where is less important than who plays with whom.  DG is probably going to experiment with all 3 of Krebs, Cozens and Mitts at center or wing until he gets the chemistry he wants, and even if we moved on from Tage (which we obviously aren't going to do any time soon) we'd still have a very talented forward group with 5 players (including Asplund and Z) who can play center if necessary.  A top 9 of Mitts, Cozens, Krebs, Skinner, VO, JJP, Quinn, Tuch and Asplund (or Vinnie or KO) would still probably be the most talented team we have had in a decade.  

Ultimately, I think there are a plethora of reasons KA should have waited to give Tage a big contract.  Ultimately he gambled and hopefully it will work out.  

I'm still waiting for someone to point a contract similar to Tage's that worked out.  Pastrank doesn't apply because he was younger by a few years and already had productive seasons with shooting % of 10.8 and 13.9 prior to his breakout. A 30 goal season with a 13% wasn't a huge surprise once given a bigger role.  

 

I’m going to do something a little annoying, but I think it might be instructive because I feel like Thompson’s development path is kind of unique for a few reasons.

Do you have any situations in mind that are similar to Thompson’s, that haven’t worked out?

 

[PerreaultForever]

10 hours ago, Curt said:

Possibly, but he did just produce like a low end 1C  on a terrible team and led that team in production by a wide margin.

I didn't really watch Montreal much last year but I know the fans aren't happy with him and there was a lot of media talk in Quebec about it being a bad signing. Some trade talk too as a result. I think his defensive game was really bad and the effort level was questioned, but as you say, it was a horrendous season for them so you can't base anything on one year.

[PerreaultForever]

8 hours ago, dudacek said:

When David Pastrnak signed his last deal (6x6.7}, he had just jumped from a career high of 26 points to 70.

The Bruins made him the league’s 49th highest-paid player.

Five years later, he’s the NHL’s 89th highest-paid player, even with 2 years of flat cap dragging down salaries.

Right now, Tage (7x7.1) will be the 75th-highest paid player when his contract kicks in.

$7 million is not what it used to be and it’s going to be a lot less by the time his contract is over.

The Pasternak deal certainly worked out for them. I wonder if he's now looking to make up for a little of that bargain pay as the Bruins haven't re-upped him yet and there is talk out of Boston that they are far apart and he might even walk after this year as a result. idk. Just rumours. 

The cap assumptions might play out, but who can say? Economy is in an iffy place. Inflation, cost of living, hockey revenues might suffer, you just never know. 

At the moment the Sabres payroll is super low as we all know and they can certainly afford this contract so we shall see how it plays out. 

[Thorny]

4 hours ago, Curt said:

Yes, that’s always a big concern when these players become RFAs just 1 year away from UFA.  That’s what was hanging over Buffalo’s head when they decided to trade Reinhart, and that’s the reason that Tkachuk was traded from Calgary.

See: Dahlin’s looming leverage 

Edited September 6, 2022 by Thorny

[Curt]

2 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

I didn't really watch Montreal much last year but I know the fans aren't happy with him and there was a lot of media talk in Quebec about it being a bad signing. Some trade talk too as a result. I think his defensive game was really bad and the effort level was questioned, but as you say, it was a horrendous season for them so you can't base anything on one year.

I didn’t really watch Montreal either, but it’s one of those fan bases with high expectations and when things aren’t going well, no one is safe.  They probably expected him to show he deserves that contract and play like a real 1C.

Im sure that there was lots of talk about how this kid is supposed to be their 1C and he isn’t getting it done, how he isn’t carrying his weight in that role.  The fans and especially media can be relentless there.

We have seen it for years, when a team spends tons of time playing from behind they can push too much trying to come back and end up scrambling in the dzone when it goes back the other way.

Truth is that he is a good player who might one day be an excellent player.  This was his first attempt at being a 1st line C in the NHL, and he didn’t have much support around him.  He is 22 and they didn’t lock him because he was going to immediately be a high level 1C, they did it because they thought it was a good investment looking 9 years down the road.

Like you say, it was just one awful year for that team, and his contract hasn’t even kicked in yet actually.  He has time to grow into it.  If he can be a 65 point top 6 C (assuming his defense/effort isn’t bad) over the life of that deal, then he is earning it.

Edited September 7, 2022 by Curt

[Curt]

2 hours ago, Thorny said:

See: Dahlin’s looming leverage 

I have full confidence that Dahlin will sign long term, but yeah he is going exert some leverage.  I doubt that deal comes in at a good number for the Sabres.

[Zamboni]

If Dahlin has pretty much the same year as last year … or better … I can see him requesting (and getting) 8 - 9.5 M AAV for 7-8 years. I don’t think he’ll try to be an unreasonable bastard and request a 11-12 M per or a trade.

[Curt]

4 minutes ago, Zamboni said:

If Dahlin has pretty much the same year as last year … or better … I can see him requesting (and getting) 8 - 9.5 M AAV for 7-8 years. I don’t think he’ll try to be an unreasonable bastard and request a 11-12 M per or a trade.

I think $8ish is what he would have gotten if he signed long term last offseason.  That ship has sailed.  If he repeats a season as a decent 1D, it’s got to be $9M+ for sure.  If he improves further and shows he is a top end 1D, forget it, probably looking at $10M+.  That’s my opinion at least.

[dudacek]

20 minutes ago, Zamboni said:

If Dahlin has pretty much the same year as last year … or better … I can see him requesting (and getting) 8 - 9.5 M AAV for 7-8 years. I don’t think he’ll try to be an unreasonable bastard and request a 11-12 M per or a trade.

Zach Werenski and Charlie McAvoy got $9.5 in exactly the same situation (RFA, arb rights, 1 year from UFA).

They are literally the only recent direct comparables I could find; everyone else went term on the second contract, rather than bridge.

You gotta believe that 2 years later $9.5 will be his floor, unless he reverts to a Ralph-level performance.

I think $10 is going to be a safe bet.

Edited September 7, 2022 by dudacek

[Digger]

43 minutes ago, Zamboni said:

If Dahlin has pretty much the same year as last year … or better … I can see him requesting (and getting) 8 - 9.5 M AAV for 7-8 years. I don’t think he’ll try to be an unreasonable bastard and request a 11-12 M per or a trade.

I tend to agree with you but one thing I do remember from his last contract was that Dahlin said his agent was looking after everything and he wasn't very involved in the negotiations.  But in general I think that he can be sold on the fact that we'll need money to share in order to make this a really good team.

[PerreaultForever]

5 hours ago, Curt said:

I think $8ish is what he would have gotten if he signed long term last offseason.  That ship has sailed.  If he repeats a season as a decent 1D, it’s got to be $9M+ for sure.  If he improves further and shows he is a top end 1D, forget it, probably looking at $10M+.  That’s my opinion at least.

I don't think so. I mean he might squeeze the Sabres for that number but he doesn't deserve it and it would be an overpay. The current market for top D man has pretty much been set in the 9 million range. McAvoy 9.5, Makar 9, Heiskenen, Werenski, Hamilton, nobody makes 10. Can't see any way to justify a contract higher than McAvoy or Makar. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

10 hours ago, Curt said:

I’m going to do something a little annoying, but I think it might be instructive because I feel like Thompson’s development path is kind of unique for a few reasons.

Do you have any situations in mind that are similar to Thompson’s, that haven’t worked out?

 

Besides Stafford, William Karlsson, and Jack Eichel, even Taylor Hall to a certain extent.  

Taylor Hall was 26 when he truly broke out.  In the 3 season before his MVP year he has shooting % of 8.9, 9.1, and 8.4/  His MVP year he had shoot 14%.  In the subsequent years he shot 9.7, 6.9, 7.4 and then his wonderful 2.3% with us.  His career % is 10.1.  He received his 42 mill deal (6 for 7) after his initial breakout campaign at 22 for 80 pts (53 assists) in 2013-14.  They moved him 2 years later as his play dipped. 

William Karlsson in his 2 seasons before his breakout at age 25 shot 8.3 and 6.3%.  His 43 goal year he shot 23.4% and then followed with a solid 14.2.  Since then he has slipped back down to 8.9 last year, although he wasn't awful in the prior season.  His pts have decrease from 79 to 56 to 46 to 39 to 35 last season.  Not exactly worth the 5.9 per season he is being paid for the next 5 years.

Now lets look at our friend Jack.  Shooting % his first 4 years - 10.1, 9.6, 10.2 and 9.2.  Then he has a career year ( at age 23) with 36 goals (78 pts) with a 15.9% shooting %.  The next year he shoots 3.3% and then back to career averages of 10.5 with LV last year.  We actually gave him the $10 mill before the breakout season, but he looks severely overpaid at this point.  Hopefully for LV he gets fully healthy and gets back to at least being a point a game player.   

None of these guys are Mark Stone for example.  That has never had a % less than 12.5 over a full season and has average for his career 15.6%.  Now if he could just stay healthy.  

There are plenty more like these guys.

The only guy who sorta fits TnT's profile and sustained it that I can even remember was Briere sort of. He played one season at age 21 with a 8.9%, then played parts of the next two seasons with % of 11.1 (13 games) and 25.6 (30 games) before truly establishing himself at 24 with a shooting % of 21.5.  From 25 to 33 he ranged from 12 to 17% over full seasons.  This is what we have to hope for Thompson, but even in Briere's case he showed he was primed for a breakout with the 25.6% in those 30 games.  Thompson was completely out of left field.

Edited September 7, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[LGR4GM]

I'll keep saying it. Sh% is only half of an equation and the other half for Tage is important. 

He took 50% of the total number of shots he's taken in the NHL last year. That's right, his 253 shots last year accounts for half of all the nhl level shots he's ever taken. So if we blindly go year to year looking at sh%, we're missing a key element. Something significant changed for Tage and it wasn't just a 1yr sh% increase. 

[Curt]

5 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

I don't think so. I mean he might squeeze the Sabres for that number but he doesn't deserve it and it would be an overpay. The current market for top D man has pretty much been set in the 9 million range. McAvoy 9.5, Makar 9, Heiskenen, Werenski, Hamilton, nobody makes 10. Can't see any way to justify a contract higher than McAvoy or Makar. 

 

You can’t just look at players and their salaries though.  The situation in which they signed the contract makes a difference.

For example, Makar and Heiskanen (among others) both signed contracts that included all of their post-ELC RFA years.  That is going to suppress their salary a bit.  

Dahlin is going to be coming off a bridge deal that eats up all but one RFA year.  In that scenario you are paying near UFA prices.  Guys who signed in a similar scenario are Werenski and McAvoy.  At the time of signing their contracts they had career highs of 47 and 32 (in a short season) points respectively.  They both signed the offseason before the last year of their bridge for 11.5-12% of the cap.  

I think that Dahlin will do the same if he maintains his play from last season.  I don’t know why he would get less.  That puts him at $9.5M+.  If Dahlin shows further improvement, I think he will sign for even more, $10M+.

[Cascade Youth]

3 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

I'll keep saying it. Sh% is only half of an equation and the other half for Tage is important. 

He took 50% of the total number of shots he's taken in the NHL last year. That's right, his 253 shots last year accounts for half of all the nhl level shots he's ever taken. So if we blindly go year to year looking at sh%, we're missing a key element. Something significant changed for Tage and it wasn't just a 1yr sh% increase. 

Again, from my untrained eye, he seemed to learn to use his elite reach to create spacing for himself, allowing him to shoot more frequently.  The position change obviously helped by giving him space-creating opportunities. 

[LGR4GM]

3 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

I'll keep saying it. Sh% is only half of an equation and the other half for Tage is important. 

He took 50% of the total number of shots he's taken in the NHL last year. That's right, his 253 shots last year accounts for half of all the nhl level shots he's ever taken. So if we blindly go year to year looking at sh%, we're missing a key element. Something significant changed for Tage and it wasn't just a 1yr sh% increase. 

I will add to this quickly so y'all can see the numbers. 

In the 3 seasons Tage played (2017, 2018, 2020), he had 144 games with 18 goals and 259 shots for a total of 6.95sh%

Last season (2022), Tage played in 78 games with 38 goals and 253 shots for a total of 15sh%. That means that on 49.4% of his shots, his shot percentage was 15%

In reality, we don't have a good idea what Tage's sh% really should average out to because of this. His shots per game went from 1.8 shots per game to 3.24 and we have the better shooting.

I fully get why Skinner comes up in conversation but if we look at Jeff Skinner, he had shot 2177 times before we gave him that contract. The year he shot 14.9% with Buffalo he had 268 shots which was only 12.3% of the total shots he had taken in the NHL to that point. His sh% average of 11.2% to that point was basically locked in. That is what Jeff Skinner will shoot year in and year out. This past year he shot 12.6 which is within a standard deviation (trust me, I am not doing the math). The issue with Skinner is that 9mil was always too much (8 was probably the number and for 6 years), the cap stopped going up so it looks bad even today, and he had 2 years under Kruegers system and IK this seems like a scapegoat but... Ralph Kruegers style of hockey is the polar opposite of how Jeff Skinner plays and it shows when his sh% dropped to numbers that he hadn't had since 2014 and then dropped below that in Kruegers 2nd year. Good news is last year we got the rebound to 12.6 which is again right around his career average (which is now at 10.7 because of the atrocious krueger years of 7.7 and 6.3%). 

Okay so where is Liger going with all of this. What I am trying to say is Jeff Skinner is a bad comparison. Sure we can say that his 14.9% in his contract year is an outlier but it isn't that big of an outlier, Jeff Skinner should be a 30g scorer most years. He is overpaid for sure. This however is very different than Tage Thompson because where as Jeff Skinner had shot 2177 times, Tage has shot only 512 and the 38goal season accounts for 49.4% of all the shots he has taken, not 12.3%. This leads me to the conclusion that it is far more likely that Tage is closer to a 15% shooter than the previous mark of 6.95% because we have seen players in years 1 and 2 shoot about 250 times and have similar-ish numbers and then in year 3 it bumps up and levels off. Where Tage falls between those 2 numbers is up for debate but right now his sh% of 11.6 seems right. If he is even slightly above that for his average, say 12%, that means he will get 30 goals on 253 shots which is probably who he is (40 goals seems too high but again, we don't know yet). 

The comparable here is Dylan Cozens who currently sits at 222 total NHL shots with a 7.7sh% for his average. If he is going to jump, we need about 200 shots from him this year to start to pinpoint where he will jump too. He already went from 6.5 to 8.1 so there is movement there. Time will tell but if he can hit 10%, we will be in good business. 

My conclusion is that the Sabres are gambling but not as much as looking at yearly sh% would indicate. If you judge based on shots taken, I tend to believe that if he can shoot 15% on half of his shots, it's likely that he isn't the 6.95% shooter he was in his first 3 seasons. The jump in sh% seems logical. We will know by the All-Star break for sure. 

40 minutes ago, Cascade Youth said:

Again, from my untrained eye, he seemed to learn to use his elite reach to create spacing for himself, allowing him to shoot more frequently.  The position change obviously helped by giving him space-creating opportunities. 

I agree. If we use the eye test, Tage Thompson looked different. Idk about you but I and others yelled for years that Tage loved this big slap shot that never worked and resulted in blocked shots or even getting stripped of the puck. Haven't seen it outside of a powerplay one timer. 

[Drag0nDan]

18 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

None of those guys have close to Tage's production yet!  However all are ahead of him based on their ages and games played.

Prior to last season through age 23, Tage's played 145 games 18g 17a for 35 pts.  (.24 pts/gp)

Mitts through age 23; 195 games 33g 47a for 80 pts (.41 pts/gp)

Cozens through age 20; 120 games 17g 34a for 51 pts (.425 pts/gp)

Krebs through age 21; 61 games 7g 16a for 23 pts (.38 pts/gp)

Honestly I have more faith in one of these 3 making a big step forward soon then I would have been on Tage making the leap. I think it's more likely that not, that at least 2 and maybe all three take a huge leap forward this coming season.  Honestly they all have more raw talent than Tage and that is not to disparage Tage.

Also I don't give a crap about what people say about players positions going forward.  Back in the day Briere and Hecht floated between center and wing depending on injuries or matchups.  Today is DG's "position less" system, the who playing where is less important than who plays with whom.  DG is probably going to experiment with all 3 of Krebs, Cozens and Mitts at center or wing until he gets the chemistry he wants, and even if we moved on from Tage (which we obviously aren't going to do any time soon) we'd still have a very talented forward group with 5 players (including Asplund and Z) who can play center if necessary.  A top 9 of Mitts, Cozens, Krebs, Skinner, VO, JJP, Quinn, Tuch and Asplund (or Vinnie or KO) would still probably be the most talented team we have had in a decade.  

Ultimately, I think there are a plethora of reasons KA should have waited to give Tage a big contract.  Ultimately he gambled and hopefully it will work out.  

I'm still waiting for someone to point a contract similar to Tage's that worked out.  Pastrank doesn't apply because he was younger by a few years and already had productive seasons with shooting % of 10.8 and 13.9 prior to his breakout. A 30 goal season with a 13% wasn't a huge surprise once given a bigger role.  

 

I think thompsons playing wing with bottom line minutes makes it a tough comparison to find.  One thing charts have shown me about thompson is that... location of shot matters when determining if a shooting percentage is an outlier.  His shots this season were much more located to the slot vs. his previous time.  He also became much more reliant upon his line mates - passing, setting up their passes etc.  Previously he tried to do it all himself and there wasn't a ton of trust there.  

[dudacek]

To me the biggest disconnect in the Thompson debate is that the pessimists look at him as one great season after 4 ***** ones and see an unlikely spike.

The reality is more like 100 ***** games and 80 great ones sandwiched around a season and a half where he barely played.

I would hope Sam Ventura and his crew have done a deeper dive into the numbers than the context-free skimming we've seen from the likes of Willis and Yost.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

13 hours ago, Zamboni said:

If Dahlin has pretty much the same year as last year … or better … I can see him requesting (and getting) 8 - 9.5 M AAV for 7-8 years. I don’t think he’ll try to be an unreasonable bastard and request a 11-12 M per or a trade.

I agree.

He could command $10M+ on an 8 year deal.  Maybe higher.

He will settle on a reasonable $ and term figure.  Both sides will be happy.

8 years ... $70M is likely the landing spot, IMO.  $8.75 AAV for 8 years.  

Maybe a bit higher since he is at $6 AAV on his current deal, which has 2 years left.

If the Sabres do another bridge we can kiss him goodbye ...