Sabres Sign Tage Thompson to a 7 year 50 Million Dollar Contract Extension

[Curt]

7 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Besides Stafford, William Karlsson, and Jack Eichel, even Taylor Hall to a certain extent.  

Taylor Hall was 26 when he truly broke out.  In the 3 season before his MVP year he has shooting % of 8.9, 9.1, and 8.4/  His MVP year he had shoot 14%.  In the subsequent years he shot 9.7, 6.9, 7.4 and then his wonderful 2.3% with us.  His career % is 10.1.  He received his 42 mill deal (6 for 7) after his initial breakout campaign at 22 for 80 pts (53 assists) in 2013-14.  They moved him 2 years later as his play dipped. 

William Karlsson in his 2 seasons before his breakout at age 25 shot 8.3 and 6.3%.  His 43 goal year he shot 23.4% and then followed with a solid 14.2.  Since then he has slipped back down to 8.9 last year, although he wasn't awful in the prior season.  His pts have decrease from 79 to 56 to 46 to 39 to 35 last season.  Not exactly worth the 5.9 per season he is being paid for the next 5 years.

Now lets look at our friend Jack.  Shooting % his first 4 years - 10.1, 9.6, 10.2 and 9.2.  Then he has a career year ( at age 23) with 36 goals (78 pts) with a 15.9% shooting %.  The next year he shoots 3.3% and then back to career averages of 10.5 with LV last year.  We actually gave him the $10 mill before the breakout season, but he looks severely overpaid at this point.  Hopefully for LV he gets fully healthy and gets back to at least being a point a game player.   

None of these guys are Mark Stone for example.  That has never had a % less than 12.5 over a full season and has average for his career 15.6%.  Now if he could just stay healthy.  

There are plenty more like these guys.

The only guy who sorta fits TnT's profile and sustained it that I can even remember was Briere sort of. He played one season at age 21 with a 8.9%, then played parts of the next two seasons with % of 11.1 (13 games) and 25.6 (30 games) before truly establishing himself at 24 with a shooting % of 21.5.  From 25 to 33 he ranged from 12 to 17% over full seasons.  This is what we have to hope for Thompson, but even in Briere's case he showed he was primed for a breakout with the 25.6% in those 30 games.  Thompson was completely out of left field.

Apologies for not being very clear.

I was thinking more along the lines of players who were in and out of the lineup and/or barely played for a few years before having a big breakout, but where unable to maintain a similar level of production.

Not players who were long established NHLers, with a well established baseline sh% who had a sudden spike and then returned to previous levels.  I know there are lots of players who have had such one year spikes/dips.

I guess the gist of it boils down to whether you view this as a one year anomaly from a player with an already established track record or as a breakout season from a young, improving player.

I think that there are a lot of reasons to view it as the latter.

Apologies if you’ve already stated it somewhere in here, you probably have, but you seem relatively pessimistic on Thompson going forward.  What do you predict of him over the next few years?

Personally, I don’t think he will maintain a 15% sht%, although he could. I’d expect it drop a little, but for Thompson to maintain a 25-35 goal, 25-35 assist stat line going forward.

[dudacek]

15 minutes ago, Curt said:

 

I was thinking more along the lines of players who were in and out of the lineup and/or barely played for a few years before having a big breakout, but where unable to maintain a similar level of production.

 

JT Miller fits the in-and-out and S% spike, but once his shooting percentage jumped, it stayed up.

https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/m/millejt01.html

 

 

[LGR4GM]

Stutzle just got a bigger contract than Tage. He is younger but still interesting. 

 

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, Curt said:

Apologies for not being very clear.

I was thinking more along the lines of players who were in and out of the lineup and/or barely played for a few years before having a big breakout, but where unable to maintain a similar level of production.

Not players who were long established NHLers, with a well established baseline sh% who had a sudden spike and then returned to previous levels.  I know there are lots of players who have had such one year spikes/dips.

I guess the gist of it boils down to whether you view this as a one year anomaly from a player with an already established track record or as a breakout season from a young, improving player.

I think that there are a lot of reasons to view it as the latter.

Apologies if you’ve already stated it somewhere in here, you probably have, but you seem relatively pessimistic on Thompson going forward.  What do you predict of him over the next few years?

Personally, I don’t think he will maintain a 15% sht%, although he could. I’d expect it drop a little, but for Thompson to maintain a 25-35 goal, 25-35 assist stat line going forward.

Actually I’m not pessimistic about Thompson overall.  I do think he is an improved player.  However I don’t view him as a perennial 30 goal player.    History says he’s unlikely to maintain a 15% shooting %. I see him more like Tuch.  This isn’t an insult, but if he does it again then I’m be thrilled he proved me not as optimistic as I should have been.  

[LGR4GM]

Yes, I know that Stutzle is 4 years younger. 

[Taro T]

17 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Yes, I know that Stutzle is 4 years younger. 

Does he have both deals 1 year longer than they actually are because neither kicks in until next season?

[LGR4GM]

12 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Does he have both deals 1 year longer than they actually are because neither kicks in until next season?

I think that is what is happening, yes. I would guess it is a software limitation. 

[PerreaultForever]

8 hours ago, Curt said:

 

You can’t just look at players and their salaries though.  The situation in which they signed the contract makes a difference.

For example, Makar and Heiskanen (among others) both signed contracts that included all of their post-ELC RFA years.  That is going to suppress their salary a bit.  

Dahlin is going to be coming off a bridge deal that eats up all but one RFA year.  In that scenario you are paying near UFA prices.  Guys who signed in a similar scenario are Werenski and McAvoy.  At the time of signing their contracts they had career highs of 47 and 32 (in a short season) points respectively.  They both signed the offseason before the last year of their bridge for 11.5-12% of the cap.  

I think that Dahlin will do the same if he maintains his play from last season.  I don’t know why he would get less.  That puts him at $9.5M+.  If Dahlin shows further improvement, I think he will sign for even more, $10M+.

I don't disagree with this, but can you make an argument that Dahlin is as good as McAvoy? I can't. 

[Eleven]

Anyone who had a problem with the Thompson extension should look at the Stutzle deal and understand that this is how the NHL works now.

[Thorny]

7 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

I don't disagree with this, but can you make an argument that Dahlin is as good as McAvoy? I can't. 

Not really, but I can easily make an argument that Dahlin was better in his 4th season than McAvoy was, and Dahlin having 66% more points is just the top of it. This is more about projection. 

[Curt]

5 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

I don't disagree with this, but can you make an argument that Dahlin is as good as McAvoy? I can't. 

I can make an argument, sure.  

Dahlin has out produced both McAvoy and Werenski in terms of points, and equal or better shot share numbers.

2nd half of last season he looked as good as anyone not named Makar/Hedman.

[Brawndo]

FWIW 

[Thorny]

Now compare Stutzle’s season to Tage’s age 19 year 

[Crusader1969]

4 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Stutzle just got a bigger contract than Tage. He is younger but still interesting. 

 

Whats also interesting is if we will see articles from TSN and the Athletic questioning the Senators decision like we did with Tage and the Sabres    My guess is they will love this signing after killing the Sabres.

[Thorny]

There’s no need for us to go all little-man complex on this.

No one outside of Buffalo cares about Tage Thompson. We should they? Would we care about some guy on some other team that always misses the playoffs having, from our perspective, one random good year?

WE know the reasons why the deal looks good. WE understand the deeper variables that led to the change in projection. Ya, sure, there are lacking professional publications. Is that supposed to be a surprise? When the Hockey News went to shite a decade ago the proof was in the pudding that the name of the media game nowadays is QUANTITY over Quality. 

It always comes to the same thing: the Buffalo Sabres are an afterthought because they haven’t made the playoffs since Twitter was even popular. Brett Favre was still an NFL quarterback.

Once we can be measured, positively, by the only universal metric people care about: winning (more than half the teams in the league), not “winning more than expected”, literal raw wins, all the other flowers will follow. 

Edited September 7, 2022 by Thorny

[dudacek]

29 minutes ago, Thorny said:

There’s no need for us to go all little-man complex on this.

No one outside of Buffalo cares about Tage Thompson. We should they? Would we care about some guy on some other team that always misses the playoffs having, from our perspective, one random good year?

WE know the reasons why the deal looks good. WE understand the deeper variables that led to the change in projection. Ya, sure, there are lacking professional publications. Is that supposed to be a surprise? When the Hockey News went to shite a decade ago the proof was in the pudding that the name of the media game nowadays is QUANTITY over Quality. 

It always comes to the same thing: the Buffalo Sabres are an afterthought because they haven’t made the playoffs since Twitter was even popular. Brett Favre was still an NFL quarterback.

Once we can be measured, positively, by the only universal metric people care about: winning (more than half the teams in the league), not “winning more than expected”, literal raw wins, all the other flowers will follow. 

Well-said.

The Buffalo Sabres will continue to have their decisions questioned until they have demonstrated those decisions are helping them win hockey games.

[Eleven]

2 hours ago, Thorny said:

There’s no need for us to go all little-man complex on this.

No one outside of Buffalo cares about Tage Thompson. We should they? Would we care about some guy on some other team that always misses the playoffs having, from our perspective, one random good year?

WE know the reasons why the deal looks good. WE understand the deeper variables that led to the change in projection. Ya, sure, there are lacking professional publications. Is that supposed to be a surprise? When the Hockey News went to shite a decade ago the proof was in the pudding that the name of the media game nowadays is QUANTITY over Quality. 

It always comes to the same thing: the Buffalo Sabres are an afterthought because they haven’t made the playoffs since Twitter was even popular. Brett Favre was still an NFL quarterback.

Once we can be measured, positively, by the only universal metric people care about: winning (more than half the teams in the league), not “winning more than expected”, literal raw wins, all the other flowers will follow. 

 

2 hours ago, dudacek said:

Well-said.

The Buffalo Sabres will continue to have their decisions questioned until they have demonstrated those decisions are helping them win hockey games.

As should the Senators.  They're the least popular team in the country, right? And also have sucked forever?

Edited September 8, 2022 by Eleven

[dudacek]

Stutzle has 87 points in his past 132 games. Thompson 82 in his past 116.

People have no problem imagining someone who jumped from 29 points to 58 points when they were 20 years old making another jump to 80.

When it happens at 24, different story.

“Big guys take longer” is a hockey cliche no one seems ready to buy into in this case.

[Eleven]

9 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Stutzle has 87 points in his past 132 games. Thompson 82 in his past 116.

People have no problem imagining someone who jumped from 29 points to 58 points when they were 20 years old making another jump to 80.

When it happens at 24, different story.

“Big guys take longer” is a hockey cliche no one seems ready to buy into in this case.

It's just so stupid.  Tage will probably justify the contract.  If he doesn't, he'll be shipped to Arizona or Florida (because by then they'll be done spending) or Columbus.

[Thorny]

56 minutes ago, Eleven said:

 

As should the Senators.  They're the least popular team in the country, right? And also have sucked forever?

They were in the conference finals in 2017

A decade more recently than us 

Edited September 8, 2022 by Thorny

[Curt]

30 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Stutzle has 87 points in his past 132 games. Thompson 82 in his past 116.

People have no problem imagining someone who jumped from 29 points to 58 points when they were 20 years old making another jump to 80.

When it happens at 24, different story.

“Big guys take longer” is a hockey cliche no one seems ready to buy into in this case.

It depends.  Some big guys find themselves dominant at the junior levels simply because they are big, and never develop much beyond that.

However, at age 17, before his draft season, Thompson was 6’1” 160.  Today he is 6’7” 220.  Growing 6” and 60lbs is a huge change in your body that I’m sure takes enormous adjustments as a hockey player.  
 

I think it probably slowed his development quite a bit.  Krueger coaching him for a couple seasons also stunted things.  And wrecking his shoulder and missing most of a season delayed things further.

I think you need to look at the entirety of the situation with Thompson in order to get a clearer picture of what this breakout was.

[PerreaultForever]

9 hours ago, Curt said:

I can make an argument, sure.  

Dahlin has out produced both McAvoy and Werenski in terms of points, and equal or better shot share numbers.

2nd half of last season he looked as good as anyone not named Makar/Hedman.

I can't buy into this. No way is he as good defensively. Not even close. Maybe will be, not as of now. 

[PerreaultForever]

Stutzle's age is the differentiating factor, but it's a gamble as well. A big one. 

[dudacek]

Generally speaking, which are you more comfortable with:

Your team giving 7x7 or 8x8 to their own guy in their early 20s who’s hit 60 points once?

Or your team giving a similar contract to another team’s guy in their late 20s who’s done it 4 times?

I think teams have run the math.

[mjd1001]

The Sabres ARE getting a discount because he has only shown it for one year.  If Tage was a 35-40 goal scorer for 2-3 years in a row and in his mid 20's, you would be seeing him get paid a lot more than he is now.  Its about balancing risk.

I know there is a chance he regresses, but what if he goes the other way? What if he has a similar year BUT puts in 1-2 more goals per month?  If that were to happen and he gets to the 45-50 year range this year, this deal would be thought of as one of the best decisions of any team in the offseason.  Likely? Maybe not, but its a possibility.

Edited September 8, 2022 by mjd1001