Annual expectations thread 2022/23: #31 Eric Comrie

[Archie Lee]

If you, arbitrarily to be sure, set the level for an NHL goalie's breakout season at starting at least half of his team's games and performing at a better than average NHL level, then you don't have to look far to find multiple examples of goalies who did not "breakout" as a starter until they were older than Comrie is.  Just looking at the goalies in the Atlantic division last year and Jack Campbell, Linus Ullmark, Thomas Greiss, Anton Forsberg and Craig Anderson were all 28 or older and no longer with their original NHL team before they started 41 games in a season while also posting better than average NHL #'s.  Of course, over the longer haul those goalies have had mixed success in their careers.  It is though, based on Comrie's background, well within the realm of possible that he will give the Sabres better than average NHL starting goaltending.  It would not be close to an outlier scenario for this to occur.

 

Edited August 8, 2022 by Archie Lee

[Sabres Fan in NS]

@Derrico ...

Dude !!

[MBD]

Vezina or bust!

[Taro T]

IF Dahlin & Samuelsson can keep up their play down the stretch, expect we'll see the Sabres get 50 starts out of Comrie with the majority of them quality.

If that pairing is still relied on as 1st pairing but are the Dahlin-Jokiharju we've seen, expect we'll be getting Anderson quality from him.

Would really still like to see at least 1 more legit NHL D-man & them figure out the shutdown C, but the hopium says he can do it. 

[Pimlach]

On 8/7/2022 at 12:05 PM, Doohickie said:

My choice is based more on Hopium than reality:  He'll be the best goalie the Sabres have had since Hasek.

Better than Miller?  I hope you are right.  

[MattPie]

I can't help but draw parallels between Comrie and Biron. Biron played 2 full seasons as the Flyers starter after the trade, and wasn't quite good enough. I could see Comrie being similar but hopefully that's the floor.

Also, it shows how disconnected I was 2002-4 when I didn't pay any attention to the Sabres, I had no idea until today the Marty was the starter those years.

 

[nfreeman]

On 8/8/2022 at 7:05 PM, Taro T said:

IF Dahlin & Samuelsson can keep up their play down the stretch, expect we'll see the Sabres get 50 starts out of Comrie with the majority of them quality.

If that pairing is still relied on as 1st pairing but are the Dahlin-Jokiharju we've seen, expect we'll be getting Anderson quality from him.

Would really still like to see at least 1 more legit NHL D-man & them figure out the shutdown C, but the hopium says he can do it. 

I agree it’s not a given but I think those 2 are going to be an outstanding top pair this season. 

[Doohickie]

2 hours ago, Pimlach said:

Better than Miller?  I hope you are right.  

That's what I said, brother.  Now pray with me.  😉

Edited August 9, 2022 by Doohickie

[Curt]

3 hours ago, Pimlach said:

Better than Miller?  I hope you are right.  

I’d be jumping for joy if he is better than Biron, pleased as punch if he is better than Lehner, and tickled pink if he is better than Ullmark.  Miller is right out.

[Pimlach]

45 minutes ago, Curt said:

I’d be jumping for joy if he is better than Biron, pleased as punch if he is better than Lehner, and tickled pink if he is better than Ullmark.  Miller is right out.

This franchise needs a break like that to take a jump right now.  Seems like a tall order but let him play and we shall see. 

[pi2000]

Comrie will surprise.  

[DarthEbriate]

4 hours ago, Curt said:

I’d be jumping for joy if he is better than Biron, pleased as punch if he is better than Lehner, and tickled pink if he is better than Ullmark.  Miller is right out.

Through their first 6 seasons with the Sabres (age 22-27), Miller and Ullmark compare quite closely. Miller had double the minutes played (lots of games played - 264), but their starts 132 (Miller) - 112 (Ullmark), save percentage .910 (Miller) - .912 (Ullmark), and quality starts % .568 (Miller) and .563 (Ullmark) are similar. Miller played for a much better team in his early seasons than Ullmark did and Ullmark had 2 seasons with extensive time lost to injury. By the numbers, Miller and Ullmark have both been solid, average starting goalies. (Miller didn't have his great Vezina season until age 29 and that was an outlier statistically for his career.)

If Comrie is in the average .914-.917 range and stays healthy, he'll be just fine, particularly since the team's talent in front of him will continue to increase.

[MattPie]

7 hours ago, DarthEbriate said:

Through their first 6 seasons with the Sabres (age 22-27), Miller and Ullmark compare quite closely. Miller had double the minutes played (lots of games played - 264), but their starts 132 (Miller) - 112 (Ullmark), save percentage .910 (Miller) - .912 (Ullmark), and quality starts % .568 (Miller) and .563 (Ullmark) are similar. Miller played for a much better team in his early seasons than Ullmark did and Ullmark had 2 seasons with extensive time lost to injury. By the numbers, Miller and Ullmark have both been solid, average starting goalies. (Miller didn't have his great Vezina season until age 29 and that was an outlier statistically for his career.)

If Comrie is in the average .914-.917 range and stays healthy, he'll be just fine, particularly since the team's talent in front of him will continue to increase.

FWIW, Miller's first two years were the (awesome) scroing free-for-all of 05-06-07, right? comparing players years apart can be difficult. How was Miller compared to his peers. (Note: I don't know what quality start means, maybe that takes that into account) Ullmark's teams didn't do him any favors though, that's for sure.

[Pimlach]

On 8/7/2022 at 11:53 AM, Digger said:

I really don't know what to expect for Comrie.

He's in a better spot than UPL to play in the NHL this season.  He does have some talent.  He's put in his time in the AHL and had some time as an NHL backup.  The interviews that I listened to shows that he has a great attitude and that's generally pretty important for goalies with the mental aspects of the game.  He knows this season is his year to get a shot at being a #1 which is great for him coming into the season.  The thing I worry about is health.  Can he stay healthy?  Can he manage the heavier workload if Anderson can't play as much or gets injured?  If UPL starts playing better then that will relieve some pressure (in that event).

Goal is still a weak position for the Sabres this season.  I'm on board with hoping it goes well but the plan B is still pretty weak if Comrie does not rise to the challenge.

I agree with all of this.  Seems like Adams has once again put a risky plan in place for this season. If Comrie beaks out and plays like a #1 then he made a great deal.  Otherwise we have all the same question marks as last season. 
 

 

[dudacek]

The fans are so quietly eager for Comrie to be good: good-guy underdog is the sort of of ***** we are absolutely primed to fall head over heels for.

Nobody wants to really consider the alternative right now.

[MBD]

26 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

I agree with all of this.  Seems like Adams has once again put a risky plan in place for this season. If Comrie beaks out and plays like a #1 then he made a great deal.  Otherwise we have all the same question marks as last season.

11 minutes ago, dudacek said:

The fans are so quietly eager for Comrie to be good: good-guy underdog is the sort of of ***** we are absolutely primed to fall head over heels for.

Nobody wants to really consider the alternative right now.

What were ever the alternatives?  Did anyone think the Sabres would get an elite goalie in the off-season? 

[dudacek]

7 minutes ago, MBD said:

What were ever the alternatives?  Did anyone think the Sabres would get an elite goalie in the off-season? 

In my case, the alternative I was referring to is that Comrie has a negligible track record and could easily become a total bust — something only 1 of 60-plus voters in this thread considers likely.

[MBD]

8 minutes ago, dudacek said:

In my case, the alternative I was referring to is that Comrie has a negligible track record and could easily become a total bust — something only 1 of 60-plus voters in this thread considers likely.

Where's the fun in that?  I get the pessimism angle, because you can only be pleasantly surprised.

[DarthEbriate]

2 hours ago, MattPie said:

FWIW, Miller's first two years were the (awesome) scroing free-for-all of 05-06-07, right? comparing players years apart can be difficult. How was Miller compared to his peers. (Note: I don't know what quality start means, maybe that takes that into account) Ullmark's teams didn't do him any favors though, that's for sure.

Absolutely, but also fun. And the peers got me intrigued... so here goes. The Ranking column is the save % ranking across the NHL season. The final "Ranking >12" column is basically a "qualifies for leaderboard" where I arbitrarily selected 12 games played as the minimum to include the save % because in each season there are 5-7 guys who play 15 minutes and make 3 saves and stand atop the NHL leaderboard with 1.000% on the season (I'm looking at you Kasimir Kaskisuo!). But I didn't do that for the seasons where they were in the 50s because I'm lazy.

Miller

Age | Season | Sv % | Ranking | Ranking>12

25 | 05-06 | .914 | 13th | 10th

26 | 06-07 | .911 | 22nd | 17th

27 | 07-08 | .906 | 50th | lazy 

28 | 08-09 | .918 | 16th | 12th

Ullmark

Age | Season | Sv % | Ranking | Ranking>12

25 | 18-19 | .905 | 53rd | lazy, Hutton was 45th

26 | 19-20 | .915 | 26th | 21st

27 | 20-21 | .917 | 22nd | 13th 

28 | 21-22* | .917 | 21st | 12th     *with BOS

Is entering-his-prime Miller better than entering-his-prime Ullmark? Yes. Is he dramatically better? I'd argue no. Each had a poorer year (loss of Drury/Briere vs. a Eichel+Skinner season with Housley where the team attempted to be offensive with only 1 line). Also, neither had yet had a top-flight season either. None of these are up with the real goalie leaders (+.920) in any season. But Miller got Hart votes in 05-06 and 06-07 as the guy carrying the entire load (Lindy Ruff style) on stacked Sabres teams.

[Norcal]

3 hours ago, dudacek said:

In my case, the alternative I was referring to is that Comrie has a negligible track record and could easily become a total bust — something only 1 of 60-plus voters in this thread considers likely.

The people have spoken so shall it be true.

Comrie will rise and with him the Sabres will return to prominence. 

Hail, Buffalo!

 

[Doohickie]

15 hours ago, pi2000 said:

Comrie will surprise.  

Assuming you mean that in a positive way, if @pi2000 and I agree on something, all of Sabrespace should take note.

[Weave]

39 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

Assuming you mean that in a positive way, if @pi2000 and I agree on something, all of Sabrespace should take note.

Yup.  It is noteworthy when you end up on the wrong side of history.

[Pimlach]

22 hours ago, MBD said:

What were ever the alternatives?  Did anyone think the Sabres would get an elite goalie in the off-season? 

No, elite goalies are rare .   The alternative was a more proven NHL goalie that has started and had some success.  

[MBD]

20 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

No, elite goalies are rare .   The alternative was a more proven NHL goalie that has started and had some success.  

Who were we expecting?  I heard MAF's name bandied about, but that was a pipe dream.

[Pimlach]

20 minutes ago, MBD said:

Who were we expecting?  I heard MAF's name bandied about, but that was a pipe dream.

I expected nothing.  I listen to what Adams is saying and this rebuild is going to continue for years with almost all home grown talent.  
 

Would have liked MAF or Kuemper or Husso, but that wasn’t going to happen.  Vanecek or Campbell, but that wasn’t going to happen either.  
 

Comrie is worth a shot.  Doubt he would “block” UPL from getting a shot.  (God forbid our prospects outplay a real NHL Player).