2023 NHL draft rankings

[GASabresIUFAN]

20 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

Do you want more Russians? 

No, not in general.  I'd prefer some Czechs to slow the Russian advance.

[Norcal]

20 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

Do you want more Russians? 

Not necessarily 

[LGR4GM]

 

[French Collection]

I have now tabulated results for 32 mock drafts. The majority of them are from known sources and some are from obscure sources who have been putting these lists out for a while. I am just trying to get a broader spectrum than say Corey Pronman and Bob McKenzie.
Some of them have 32 players while a few go 100+ players deep. I am more concerned with the first round and then potential first rounders so players I track need to be on half of the lists to date (16/32). I have around 49 players on my list so that gives me a decent feel for the range of the Sabres potential first three picks.

Anyway, I check out this app occasionally, which does a similar thing.

https://piyer97.shinyapps.io/NHLDraft2023/

Most of the players are very close to my data but there are a few discrepancies.

The largest ones are:

                  App.               My data

E.Sale         13.4                 17.2

B.Yager       13.5.               18.1

R.Leonard   13.6                8.2

D.Reinbacher 16.1              10.9

G.Perreault    21.1              15.7

T.Willander    30.7             20.5

K.Halttunen   33.5             40.6

We obviously use a lot of similar lists but these few stand out. 
I’ll see what happens when a few more come out and others like McKenzie and Bukala update theirs.

 

[LGR4GM]

Ranking Name Position Height/Weight

1 Connor Bedard C 5'10" 185lbs

- He's really good. Lots of info already out there.

2 Adam Fantilli C 6'2" 187lbs

- He's really good. Lots of info already out there.

3 Matvei Michkov RW 5'10" 148lbs

- He's really good. Offensively he might be the best player in this draft in terms of his manipulation and shot but I still think Bedard edges him out. You gotta wait 3 years for him and at his size, I actually do worry that in the NHL on smaller ice, he will just get pushed to the outside. Lots of risk but high upside. His offensive creativity is probably a level above Bedard in terms of how he plays the game and that is truly elite. 

4 Leo Carlsson LW 6'3" 194lbs

- I like Carlsson the more I have watched him but I think there is a lack of one just truly standout trait that he could leverage at higher levels. That said, every skill he does have is above average. Skating might be only a bit above but he makes up for it with really good hockey sense, the ability to puckhandle and thread passes like the best of them, and a good work ethic. His size is something that he uses well and I invite everyone to watch the WJC20 to see more of him. Just a really solid player. 

 ^Tier 1 has ended ^ I could put Bedard on a tier all alone but we aren't drafting up there so meh. 

5 Will Smith C 6' 180lbs

- I think Smith is good but I am not convinced he can be great. Think high end 2nd line center as opposed to guaranteed first line center. In some ways, watching him reminds me of Jack Hughes but then the skating is a step below that. Smith has an excellent shot to go along with his extraordinary puck handling skills. His ability to get defenders to bite and then to either wire a perfect pass or to crank out a quick shot are really good. I wish he had more battle in his game, that's my main criticism, I think at times he can shy a bit from physical play. His ability to think and execute high end plays though is fantastic and why I put him here. My one concern is that Leonard and Perrault really covered up for some of his warts but maybe not. We won't find out soon because all 3 are going to college together. 

6 Zach Benson LW 5'10" 170lbs

- I was slow to come around on Benson. He at first glance seems like Matt Savoie but I think he is a step above our 1st rounder from last year. A lot has been said that Benson doesn't have great skating but I have watched a bunch of him now and I don't agree. The issue is he doesn't have elite speed and that might cause him problems. His brain though has elite speed. If I were ranking creativity it would be Mitchkov, Bedard, Benson all on a tier above everyone else. There is just layers on layers of manipulation to what Benson does and he does that alllllll over the ice. If Benson was 6'2", he would be challenging Fantilli for 2nd overall IMPO. He has a nonstop motor and sublime passing skills. I almost ranked him above Will Smith but just couldn't quite get there. "Benson’s expected primary assists and slot pass success percentage check in at the 100th percentile, in a sample that includes 700 forwards from this season. In a multi-year data set of over 3000 forwards, his underlying playmaking data is second to only Connor McDavid. You might have heard of him." 

7 Ryan Leonard RW 6' 190lbs

- "Hey we need a guy like Matthew Tkachuk, got anyone?" well well well let's talk about Ryan Leonard. He has one objective on the ice, win. Win the puck battle, win the board battle, win the 1v1 battle, beat the goalie, stop the forward, win. I have not seen a report anywhere that doesn't mention Leonard's grit but he isn't Tyler Boucher, a gritty guy with only okay skills. No, Leonard is good. He can shoot and he can skate. His is intelligent and helped facilitate a lot of the plays of Perrault and Smith. Versatile and hard nosed guys like Leonard are the types of players you draft in July so you can win in June. Is he going to score the most points out of his linemates in the NHL? No, but he might end up the most impactful due to his good skills, excellent IQ, and overall gritty attacking style. Sadly, he will be long gone by 13.

^ Tier 2 has ended^ it was small, that's what she said

8 David Reinbacher RHD 6'2" 194lbs

- What is 6'2", shoots, right, and has the closest thing to a guaranteed floor of #5 defender in the NHL... Reinbacher. Is he elite offensively, no. Is he elite defensively, I am inclined to say yes. He doesn't get beat often 1v1 and even when he does he has the agility and speed to get back. He tends to play physical (check out Austria at the WJC20) and not in a reckless way. He separates you from the puck and he moves up ice. He played in a men's league all year (Swiss National League) and was his teams go to top defender, as an 18yr old. On a team with our old friend Arrtu Ruotsalainen, he was 1 of 3 players with a positive goal +/-... his team wasn't that great. There is offense in his game and realistically he looks to be the perfect #2 pp and #3 or maybe #2 defender for a team. He is just all around solid. There is a good chance he comes to NA next year and plays in the AHL. He's not flashy but he is solid. High floor guy.

9 Oliver Moore C 5'11" 195lbs

- More almost edged out Reinbacher but the high floor got me. So Moore might be the very best skater in this class, bar none. He's that good, edges, speed, you name it and on skates Moore will do it. He has a good shot and good manipulation to get it off. The issue comes with the fact I think his overall IQ is average or slightly above, too many plays where he skates into pressure and then doesn't know where to go. Sometimes he doesn't make decisions fast enough. Now he doesn't do that all the time, you can watch lots of highlights where he uses his skating to create advantages for teammates but he needs to line up his skating with his brain a bit. My other concern is that his overall handling, to me is average. Sure he can deke here and there but compared to everyone above him and a bunch of ppl below him, he just doesn't have that "puck sticks to you" way of handling. He is just a cut below some of the other guys and that's really the issue. Still, if he can improve the hands, speed up the brain, he will be a very dangerous forward in the NHL. 

10 Dalibor Dvorský C 6'1" 201lbs

- His wjc18 really kept him from sliding for me. Sometimes when these guys play in pro leagues (Dvorsky plays in the Allsvenskan) they get a little lost in the shuffle and you don't see there high end plays as much. That said he does have skills and a good shot. His shot might be his best attribute as it is powerful, accurate and fast. He is somewhat like the Reinbacher of forwards where there is a high floor but maybe a lower ceiling. Think really good 2nd line center. He is physical enough and smart enough to play a mature 2way game and his other skills are developed enough to give him some fancy moves here and there. Is he the flashiest guy? Nope, but again, you will get solid efforts with some wow plays here and there. Well worth a top 10 pick. He reminds me a bit of Cozens in his draft year (big center with good everything that was a north south type of player) now granted Cozens has improved a lot since then. Still Dvosrky has a small chance of sliding to 13 and he would be worth the pickup IMPO. 2 way centers with skills like his don't grow on trees. 

11 Gabe Perreault LW 5'11" 165lbs

- Screw you consolidated rankings (20) and the horse you road in on. First thing is first, his skating has been wildly underrated because his breakaway speed isn't Oliver Moore. That said his short area speed is fine and his overall edges look fine. He needs some refinement and strength for sure but I think the size coupled with the lack of blazing speed has colored a few reports IMPO. Perrault is brilliant in the offensive zone when it comes to manipulations, fakes, stick moves, and otherwise creating time and mismatches. You add in his elite passing abilities and he was the perfect linemate for Leonard and Smith. He finds open ice, his shot is quick and accurate (needs more power), and when in trouble he will think his way out of it. Of course he rarely seems to be in trouble. The ability to understand the game at speed and react accordingly with great hands, slick passing, and a solid shot are the main draw here. Oh yea, and he scored the most points ever in the USDP, EVER. So it all comes down to one thing, do you think as a team you can take his skating from exceedingly average to a + trait. I think with some skating coaches and some strength the answer is yes. I find that smart players are able to do things like that. I love Perreault because he has a good motor and just is constant joy to watch as he manipulates defenders whenever and wherever. 

12 Dmitri Simashev LHD 6'4" 201lbs

- Finally found video... not a lot but some. If he shot right, I think I would be on the draft him no matter what wagon to Stanley-ville. His scoring picked up towards the end of the year and he was really good in the MHL playoffs with 6pts in 10games. Now we should discuss his skating, his edges are better than Power and his has really good acceleration (on par with Owen). He can keep up with attacking forwards and has the agility that allows him to turn and push attackers to the outside. He has a physical element and will rub guys out or use his frame to separate them from the puck. Gap control is as good as Reinbacher but where I think he is a bit behind Reinbacher is in overall creativity. He just isn't has refined in terms of the offensive side of things and that hurts his stock a bit. Here is the truth though, he is probably better than Samuelsson overall while also being the same size. So basically Muel is a poor man's Simashev. I wish Simashev didn't have 2 more years in Russia as I think a NA coach would be able to push his game further faster but when he shows up at the start of 2025, you will have a player that just spent 2 years in the KHL... exactly like Novikov so we shall see what we get. 

13 Quentin Musty LW 6'2" 200lbs

- I cannot understand why Musty is ranked so low other places. I mean, I can but I don't agree. His consolidated is #24 and no, like no. I think this is a case of a guy that was ranked lowish to start and scouts saw improvement but he mostly met expectations from there. Basically I think he was anchored, low to start, met the expectations ppl had so he had a small increase to his rankings. So the good is that he is a slick passer who can manipulate defenders, play off contact and has a quietly good shot. The bad is that his skating is only slightly above average and sometimes he plays a bit too much of a perimeter passing game for my taste. That said, I think when you watch tape of him from November and then compare it to March you really see improvements. He needs to improve more in the defensive zone, where he at times seems disinterested but at other times is really good at separating player from puck. Me? I am betting that once his matures a little, all of the good will become more common and the bad will be sanded out of how he plays. He just improved too much IMPO. His stickhandling and ability to go through defenders was great and he never really put himself in bad spots offensively. He has a July bday so I really feel it comes down to allowing the player to mature and just working with him. He has all the tools needed to be a really good top 6 forward and if he can up the skating a bit, he can honestly be in your top 3. The issue is though, you might also get a 3rd line passer with a decent shot who is only okay defensively. High ceiling, low floor. 

^ Tier 3 has ended^ it is a bit bigger but makes sense to me

More to come later but there is my top 13. This has more to do with where I set the end of my 3rd tier as opposed to Buffalo picking at 13. That is a coincidence not a design here. 

Calum Ritchie and Colby Barlow kick off my 4th tier. Both I mention because they very nearly were put in the 3rd tier but I felt their overall skill was a bit below what I have here. 

[ndirish1978]

On 6/12/2023 at 7:44 PM, PromoTheRobot said:

 

 

Wouldn't this be a pretty standard thing all GMs should do? Not being facetious.

[French Collection]

8 minutes ago, ndirish1978 said:

Wouldn't this be a pretty standard thing all GMs should do? Not being facetious.

I would hope so unless you’re sitting at #1 with a guy like Bedard available.

 

[Curt]

48 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

3 Matvei Michkov RW 5'10" 148lbs

148?  This can’t be correct any more.  I’m not sure what he weights exactly but I’ve seen him listed at over 170 in some places.

Not too much info coming out of Russia, but apparently Michkov will be at the draft, so NHL teams will get a chance to meet with him.

[French Collection]

1 minute ago, Curt said:

148?  This can’t be correct any more.  I’m not sure what he weights exactly but I’ve seen him listed at over 170 in some places.

Not too much info coming out of Russia, but apparently Michkov will be at the draft, so NHL teams will get a chance to meet with him.

There will be a mad rush to meet him if he shows up.

I find it hard to believe 148, he turns 19 this year and he has been playing with men all year so you would think he’s been working out.

[LGR4GM]

8 minutes ago, Curt said:

148?  This can’t be correct any more.  I’m not sure what he weights exactly but I’ve seen him listed at over 170 in some places.

Not too much info coming out of Russia, but apparently Michkov will be at the draft, so NHL teams will get a chance to meet with him.

That's his EliteProspects weight so without a combine weight, it remains.

[Curt]

3 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

That's his EliteProspects weight so without a combine weight, it remains.

That’s fair.  I just didn’t want everyone thinking that he was ridiculously slight.

[LGR4GM]

1 minute ago, Curt said:

That’s fair.  I just didn’t want everyone thinking that he was ridiculously slight.

He is slight even if he is 170

[elijah]

With this draft considered to be so deep, I’m curious if anyone here has their own or has seen somewhere do a consolidated rankings with both this years and last years prospects? 

[Curt]

6 minutes ago, elijah said:

With this draft considered to be so deep, I’m curious if anyone here has their own or has seen somewhere do a consolidated rankings with both this years and last years prospects? 

I don’t think this years draft is considered to be so deep, it’s just that the 3-4 guys at the very top are better than normal.

[LGR4GM]

15 minutes ago, elijah said:

With this draft considered to be so deep, I’m curious if anyone here has their own or has seen somewhere do a consolidated rankings with both this years and last years prospects? 

I will try. I won't use my own rankings but use the consolidated rankings for 2023 and for 2022, I will slot guys in based on my feels. This will not be precise. Give me about 20 minutes.

[PromoTheRobot]

2 hours ago, ndirish1978 said:

Wouldn't this be a pretty standard thing all GMs should do? Not being facetious.

Yes and no. By leaking this your letting folks know you're open to a deal.

[LGR4GM]

Okay, so I used the actual top 32 players drafted... except Maverick Lamoureux because I refuse. I then used the consolidated rankings found on EliteProspects. I tried not to move guys around too much, meaning if I had a way different grade, I tried not to move them up or down a ton. The exception being Jiri Kulich, I ranked him 19th and yea... I feel good on that. I did flip some guys that I think were under over drafted but again, tried not to move ppl too much based on my feels but also being respectful of the talent. I will say that doing this... oh my lord was there way better defenders up in the 2022 draft. Anyways, feel free to debate this. It was just done as a fun quick exercise and isn't an exact thing. I also tried hard not to let what I know now influence things tooooo much... so David Jiricek didn't get ranked 5th overall... but I wanted too. Juraj Slafskovsky got ranked where I think he deserves and I did slide him a few spots, honestly Dvorsky has been a bit better IMPO. Short story is yes I have some bias and yes current event influenced stuff but I did my best. 

1. Connor Bedard 2023
2. Adam Fantilli 2023
3. Matvei Mitchkov 2023
4. Leo Carlsson 2023
5. Shane Wright
6. Will Smith 2023
7. Simon Nemec
8. David Jiricek
9. Zach Benson 2023
10. Logan Cooley
11. Ryan Leonard 2023
12. Cutter Guathier
13. Dalibor Dvorsky 2023
14. Juraj Slafskovsky
15. Pavel Mintyukov
16. Oliver Moore 2023
17. Matthew Savoie
18. Kevin Korchinski
19. Colby Barlow 2023
20. Marco Kasper
21. Eduard Sale 2023
22. Axel Sandin Pellikka 2023
23. David Reinbacher 2023
24. Brayden Yager 2023
25. Frank Nazar 
26. Rutger McGroarty
27. Andrew Cristall 2023
28. Denton Mateychuk
29. Nate Danielson 2023
30. Matthew Wood 2023
31. Calum Ritchie 2023
32. Connor Geekie
33. Samuel Honzek 2023
34. Gabe Perreault 2023
35. Jiri Kulich
36. Quentin Musty 2023
37. Jonathan Lekkerimaki
38. Lian Bichsel
39. Ivan Miroshnichenko
40. Riley Heidt 2023
41. Liam Ohgren
42. Daniil But 2023
43. Lucas Dragicevic 2023
44. Noah Östlund
45. Joakim Kemell
46. Tom Willander 2023
47. Otto Stenberg 2023
48. Owen Pickering 
49. Dmitri Simashev 2023
50. Nathan Gaucher
51. Ethan Gauthier 2023
52. Filip Mesar
53. Filip Bystedt
54. Brad Lambert
55. Isaac Howard
56. Mihail Gulyayev 2023
57. Jimmy Snuggerud
58. Danil Yurov
59. Reid Schaefer
60. Gavin Brindley 2023
61. Owen Beck
62. Sam Rinzel
63. Oliver Bonk 2023
64. Kasper Halttunen 2023

[Brawndo]

 

[Brawndo]

 

[French Collection]

2 hours ago, Brawndo said:

 

Thanks for this!

Lots of footage in these clips.

Do I ever love his skating, and he is 6’4”. 
His retrievals and breakouts vs junior players seem easy. His passing is good and he shields the puck well with his body. He’s not afraid to use the body, even against KHL men.

His offense hasn’t blossomed and that is concerning because if you can’t score at the lower levels you usually don’t develop a scoring touch in the NHL.

He looks like a great candidate for a shutdown role.

Two more years in Russia is a bit of a wait but Buffalo could be patient with this guy.

One issue I see is that #26 is already taken in Buffalo so he would need another number.

[LGR4GM]

32 minutes ago, French Collection said:

Thanks for this!

Lots of footage in these clips.

Do I ever love his skating, and he is 6’4”. 
His retrievals and breakouts vs junior players seem easy. His passing is good and he shields the puck well with his body. He’s not afraid to use the body, even against KHL men.

His offense hasn’t blossomed and that is concerning because if you can’t score at the lower levels you usually don’t develop a scoring touch in the NHL.

He looks like a great candidate for a shutdown role.

Two more years in Russia is a bit of a wait but Buffalo could be patient with this guy.

One issue I see is that #26 is already taken in Buffalo so he would need another number.

I don't understand the bold and others have said similar. At 13oa, almost every player we could draft is 2 years away. Savoie, Kulich, and Östlund will all play 2 years outside of Buffalo. It's pretty standard and the only concern for me is that the khl isn't a development league so that may or may not be bad. 

[French Collection]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

I don't understand the bold and others have said similar. At 13oa, almost every player we could draft is 2 years away. Savoie, Kulich, and Östlund will all play 2 years outside of Buffalo. It's pretty standard and the only concern for me is that the khl isn't a development league so that may or may not be bad. 

That’s what I was trying to get at, the KHL may not be the best spot for him to develop for two years. I would prefer one and then Rochester.

I like your analysis that he is more skilled than Mule. Mule was picked in the 30’s and Simashev should go earlier. Even if his offense doesn’t improve, he would be a great addition. Built like Mule but skates better than Bryson.

The EP Rinkside write up says he’s tough to stop because he skates like a gazelle but is built like a truck.

[dudacek]

The offence really doesn’t matter to me.

Im looking for Mattias Ekholm.

Ive said it before, and it’s why I haven’t been really concerned about the lack of D in the pipeline: it’s a helluvalot easier to find a 4-6 than a 1-3.

Having Power and Dahlin around for a decade is going to be a privilege this franchise has never seen the likes of.

[LGR4GM]

40 minutes ago, French Collection said:

That’s what I was trying to get at, the KHL may not be the best spot for him to develop for two years. I would prefer one and then Rochester.

I like your analysis that he is more skilled than Mule. Mule was picked in the 30’s and Simashev should go earlier. Even if his offense doesn’t improve, he would be a great addition. Built like Mule but skates better than Bryson.

The EP Rinkside write up says he’s tough to stop because he skates like a gazelle but is built like a truck.

Dump truck. 

I don't worry about his offense. He did 6pts in 10 playoff games. 

[Taro T]

40 minutes ago, dudacek said:

The offence really doesn’t matter to me.

Im looking for Mattias Ekholm.

Ive said it before, and it’s why I haven’t been really concerned about the lack of D in the pipeline: it’s a helluvalot easier to find a 4-6 than a 1-3.

Having Power and Dahlin around for a decade is going to be a privilege this franchise has never seen the likes of.

Having ONE of them is something this team has never seen for more than parts of a season here or there.

The Sabres (except for the last month or so of '05-'06 and that playoff run have never had A #1 D-man.  They legitimately could have TWO at the same time for a very long time.