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2023 NHL draft rankings

Crusader1969

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dudacek Hall of Famer

dudacek

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22 minutes ago, French Collection said:

TSN’s Craig Button out with his final top 100.

I find his picks are often out of alignment with what actually happens. He is not afraid to take a swing on some guys.

https://www.tsn.ca/craig-s-list-plenty-of-intrigue-surrounding-matvei-michkov-ahead-of-nhl-draft-1.1972205

 

I don't buy in to the idea that Button is pushing clickbait, or doesn't have a clue, with his "out-there" picks.

Every individual scout and every individual team will have players they rank that vary wildly from the consensus.

Just once I'd like to be able to compare actual team lists. I bet you will see "consensus 10-15" pick Matthew Wood (for example) ranked 7th or 8th in some places and 27th or 28th in others.

Other than at the very top, variations in evaluations are normal.

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French Collection First Liner

French Collection

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So after looking at almost 30 different mock drafts, I think it is a safe bet that 8 guys will not be available at 13. Bedard, Fantilli, Carlsson, Michkov, Smith, Benson, Leonard and Dvorsky should be gone. There is a slight chance someone from the last 5 falls but I doubt it.

4 from the next group of 14 will be taken before the Sabres pick. I’ve listed them in the average ranking they got from the mock drafts I have looked at.

Moore, Sandin-Pellikka, Reinbacher, Wood, Barlow, Perreault, Danielson, Sale, Yager, Simashev, Cristall, Willander, Honzek and Musty.

My order of preference for the Sabres would be:

Simashev, big Dman that skates very well.

Moore, fast, 200’ C.

Reinbacher, big RHD, could be a long term 4D. Could come to the Amerks right away.

Perreault, super skilled W, broke Matthews’ USNDTP records but skating needs work.

Musty, big skilled W whose stock has been rising. Sabres fan.

Barlow, big winger with a good shot.

Wallinder, good all round Swedish RHD.

Wood, big scoring winger who needs to work on his skating.

 

 

 

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French Collection First Liner

French Collection

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8 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I don't buy in to the idea that Button is pushing clickbait, or doesn't have a clue, with his "out-there" picks.

Every individual scout and every individual team will have players they rank that vary wildly from the consensus.

Just once I'd like to be able to compare actual team lists. I bet you will see "consensus 10-15" pick Matthew Wood (for example) ranked 7th or 8th in some places and 27th or 28th in others.

Other than at the very top, variations in evaluations are normal.

I’m sure there are scouts that are way higher or lower than the consensus.

I find Button hasn’t changed his rankings much as the hockey season has wound down. His lists from April/May are almost identical.

I like looking at the last 50 names or so, he has a few guys that no other mocks have.

He also has Benson and Leonard outside the top 10 and Sandin-Pellikka at 5, which I don’t think happens. 
 

 

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Flashsabre Second Liner

Flashsabre

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My dad found the 2017 Hockey News draft preview at his place and gave it to me last night. Looking through it I was blown away by how many guys just never make it at all and how bad the rankings look 5-6 years later. They had Mitts 4th and Makar 5th. And nolan Patrick has to be one of the big draft busts of all time. Injuries just shredded his career.

Just hope your scouts are good at their jobs. The last couple drafts are looking promising for Buffalo. 

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LGR4GM Hall of Famer

LGR4GM

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34 minutes ago, Flashsabre said:

My dad found the 2017 Hockey News draft preview at his place and gave it to me last night. Looking through it I was blown away by how many guys just never make it at all and how bad the rankings look 5-6 years later. They had Mitts 4th and Makar 5th. And nolan Patrick has to be one of the big draft busts of all time. Injuries just shredded his career.

Just hope your scouts are good at their jobs. The last couple drafts are looking promising for Buffalo. 

It is like on draft night 2022 when I am sitting there watching Kulich just slide and slide and slide. I couldn't believe it when he was still there at 28. Teams IMPO tend to have too many voices and also they tend to have "this is what makes a good NHL'er" attitude that often doesn't reflect reality. Guys that show up at the u18s get overdrafted because they were good for 7-8 games, where guys who were good all year in their jr leagues slide down because scouts don't see "progress". 

I think I have my top 32 done. It looks different than Buttons. Pellikka at 5 is a thing you could do, you shouldn't, but you could. 

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Carmel Corn Second Liner

Carmel Corn

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On 6/12/2023 at 2:14 PM, LGR4GM said:

It is like on draft night 2022 when I am sitting there watching Kulich just slide and slide and slide. I couldn't believe it when he was still there at 28. Teams IMPO tend to have too many voices and also they tend to have "this is what makes a good NHL'er" attitude that often doesn't reflect reality. Guys that show up at the u18s get overdrafted because they were good for 7-8 games, where guys who were good all year in their jr leagues slide down because scouts don't see "progress". 

I think I have my top 32 done. It looks different than Buttons. Pellikka at 5 is a thing you could do, you shouldn't, but you could. 

It was very interesting to see the efforts GMKA went through to try and move up and take Kulich after they drafted Östlund.  Sometimes it is nice to get what you want without having to give up as much as you were willing to in order to get it.

Edited by Carmel Corn
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LGR4GM Hall of Famer

LGR4GM

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12 minutes ago, Flashsabre said:

https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/scouts-analysis-observations-from-the-2023-nhl-draft-combine/

My appreciation of Matthew Wood went up. “If a scout who came to watch me play thinks I’m inconsistent, not fast enough, or don’t compete, they should get another job.”

I don't think Wood is fast or agile enough yet. That said, he is consistent and does compete. 

 

Also Calum Ritchie played the year with a torn labrum? WHAT? Omg, I probably need to move him up the board. That is insane especially if you go watch some of his stuff. He's probably not going to be a Sabre but I just enjoy the way he plays hockey. 

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GASabresIUFAN All Star

GASabresIUFAN

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My consensus Board is really shaping up.

1. Bedard

2. Fantilli

3-7.  Michkov, Carlsson, Smith, Benson and Leonard

Gap to 8

8-11. Pellikka, Moore, Dvorsky, Reinbacher

Gap to 12

12-18. Barlow, Danielson, Perreault, Simashev, Cristall, Wood, Sale

Gap to 19

19-26. Musty, Honzek, Yager, Brindley, Stenberg, Williander, Gulyaev, Heidt

gap to 27

27-28. Ritchie, But 

Cliff to 29

29-34. Perron, Molgaard, Nadeau, Sawchyn, Dragicevic, Gauthier

Gap to 35

35-37. Lardis, Molendyk, Whitelaw

38-48. Edstrom, Ciernik, Hrbael, Stramel, Cagnoni, Wahlberg, Haltunnen, Ziemmer, Bonk, Augustine, Lindstein

Gap to 49

49-56. Price, Pinelli, Barkley, Hameenaho, Brzustewicz, Dower-Nilsson, Minnetian, Akey

Gap to 57

57-66. Morin, Strbak, Nelson, Kantserov, Bjarnason, Rehkopf, Suniev, Rykov, Cataford, Under Sorum

My mock draft -

13. Simashev (unless one of Reinbacher, Moore, or Dvorsky fall to us.

39. Lardis - Only 17 but very fast skater and good hands

45. Bonk - Solid 2-way D

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dudacek Hall of Famer

dudacek

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Because the Sabres seem more invested than most in Russia: Athletic quotes from anonymous scouts.

It’s always hard to project where top Russian prospects will land in a draft, but that’s especially the case since the invasion of Ukraine. We discussed Michkov earlier, but where do the Lokomotiv duo of Daniil But (wing) and Dmitri Simashev (defenseman) go? Both are huge players with intriguing talent. 

Scout 1: “But should be top 15, wouldn’t surprise me at all if he went in the top 10. You compare him to some of the other big wingers like Samuel Honzek, Quentin Musty or Matthew Wood and he’s better than them for me.”

Scout 2: “Simashev is just as good as David Reinbacher as a player for me, probably better, but one obviously has a lot less risk as a draft pick so Reinbacher will likely go ahead. Simashev has top-pair potential in the NHL. He’s a 6-foot-4, clear NHL caliber skating defenseman who is solid defensively and can move the puck well.”

Executive 1: “Simashev is a good player. He’s big, can skate and can defend like a pro. The lack of offense does worry me a little bit. If you’re stepping up with a high pick for a player in Russia, you’d like them to be a real player, and there’s a chance you may just be drafting a defensive third-pair guy.”

Executive 2: “But is top 10 all day on pure ability. He’s a rare talent, has all the offensive tools, can skate and is massive. Just a matter of when someone is willing to draft him, likely in the first.”

Executive 3: “It wouldn’t surprise me if But ended up anywhere in the first round. You saw last year with Danila Yurov those guys could slide to the 20s, but he’s a top 10, if not top 5 talent in this draft, and he could end up going that high too.”

Executive 4: “They’re both top 10 talents in the draft. Whether you’re willing to pull that trigger or not high in the draft is another story, but they’re high-echelon players.”

Scout 3: “Everyone is going to have a top tier of players, the guys they are confident will have long NHL careers. That group could be 8, 10, 12 players deep depending on your opinion of the draft class. Once all the no-doubters are gone, we start talking about But, because on talent, he belongs in that category. Simashev is a little later for me; closer to 20-25 it starts becoming a serious conversation.

Executive 5: “If But was playing in the CHL he would be a top 5 pick, Simashev close to top 10.”

Scout 4: “I think both are going to go in the top half of the first round, Russian factor included. They’re just too good.”

Edited by dudacek
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Randall Flagg Hall of Famer

Randall Flagg

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13 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

 

Still waiting for Lance to give me inside info that isn't the most obvious and pragmatic stuff in existence 

Hey guys, insiders told me Donny wants the team to win hockey games. He will do what he can to help them do so

Has any GM ever not explored the pricing to move up and down in the draft?

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LGR4GM Hall of Famer

LGR4GM

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Juraj Pekarcik, 6'2" 183lbs, LW, Sept 12th bday. 

If I am Buffalo, this is probably my target at 45. Why? First things first, he is basically a 2024 draft eligible player. For comparison presumptive 2023 1st rounder Nate Danielson (consolidated rank 16) is 350 days older than Juraj. That means you are looking at a guy who is at a distinct disadvantage in terms of age compared to the majority of his class. Now alone this doesn't matter but once we start looking at the player, things get better. You have this kid who is super young, is already 6'2" and he is smart. He makes passes to the high danger areas and prepares defenders to get the passes through. His has some nifty handles, although I think at times he makes 1 move too many. His skating is fine, average for the NHL but I think it will get better. When you watch him, he looks like a 17yr old kid at times with a bit of that uncoordinated limb movement. With his size though, I think added strength will tighten up his skating and make his edges more dangerous. His shot is good and added strength could make it a major asset but it does need some refinement. Now being younger it could mean he is a bit differential to others but nope. He engages in the offensive zone and that includes forechecking. His physical game is solid as well, he uses his body to help separate opponents from the puck. I like his motor the best as he never seems to take shifts off but is always looking for plays both in the offensive zone and when on defense. 

The bottom line is you are getting a really raw prospect who at the u18s really showed that he can keep up or even outplay a guy like Dalibor Dvorsky. Dvorsky will probably go top 10 if not top 15. He has all the tools and the toolbox to be a top 6 forward in the NHL and I think at worst you get a solid 3rd line guy. I like Juraj Pekarcik and would be excited if Buffalo drafted him. His age, skills, and motor make me excited for his future and I think he could be an under the radar pick. 

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GASabresIUFAN All Star

GASabresIUFAN

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11 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Juraj Pekarcik, 6'2" 183lbs, LW, Sept 12th bday. 

If I am Buffalo, this is probably my target at 45. Why? First things first, he is basically a 2024 draft eligible player. For comparison presumptive 2023 1st rounder Nate Danielson (consolidated rank 16) is 350 days older than Juraj. That means you are looking at a guy who is at a distinct disadvantage in terms of age compared to the majority of his class. Now alone this doesn't matter but once we start looking at the player, things get better. You have this kid who is super young, is already 6'2" and he is smart. He makes passes to the high danger areas and prepares defenders to get the passes through. His has some nifty handles, although I think at times he makes 1 move too many. His skating is fine, average for the NHL but I think it will get better. When you watch him, he looks like a 17yr old kid at times with a bit of that uncoordinated limb movement. With his size though, I think added strength will tighten up his skating and make his edges more dangerous. His shot is good and added strength could make it a major asset but it does need some refinement. Now being younger it could mean he is a bit differential to others but nope. He engages in the offensive zone and that includes forechecking. His physical game is solid as well, he uses his body to help separate opponents from the puck. I like his motor the best as he never seems to take shifts off but is always looking for plays both in the offensive zone and when on defense. 

The bottom line is you are getting a really raw prospect who at the u18s really showed that he can keep up or even outplay a guy like Dalibor Dvorsky. Dvorsky will probably go top 10 if not top 15. He has all the tools and the toolbox to be a top 6 forward in the NHL and I think at worst you get a solid 3rd line guy. I like Juraj Pekarcik and would be excited if Buffalo drafted him. His age, skills, and motor make me excited for his future and I think he could be an under the radar pick. 

He'll be available in the 3rd, although I agree he was excellent at the World U18s.  

Of the 12 rankings I've looked at with 100+ players, Juraj has only been listed in the top 100 in 4 of the rankings.  The only people who gave him at or near second round consideration were Button at 39 and Wheeler at 67.  He currently sits 103rd on my consensus board.

Nick Lardis, who is also very young in this class, has a much better pedigree and with a little luck, he'll be available to us at 39 and possibly 45.  He had a great run with Hamilton in the second half of the season and put up 10 points in 6 playoffs games.  He is a pure scorer.

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Crusader1969 First Liner

Crusader1969

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https://theathletic.com/4596610/2023/06/09/golden-knights-defense-lebrun/
 

Tampa and now Vegas are the blueprints.

unless your 5-10” Dman qbs your power play there is no room for him on the team.

In other words, do what you need to do.  Move up in the draft, use pick 13 or trade down but no matter what draft Simashev!  You want every Dman you put out there 6’3 or taller 

Edited by Crusader1969
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