March of Progress?

[Randall Flagg]

Since the Sabres threw two seasons away losing on purpose, it has generally felt like the month of March was a special hell, showcasing just how far away the Sabres are from teams that are ramping up their games to get ready for playoffs. I wanted to check and see if that feeling held up.

2015-16
March record: 7-4-4, 42 goals, 41 goals against
I recall feeling hopeful for the following season during this March, and the record reflects that - notable moments included the Eichel OT goal on Kane's hail mary pass as the seconds dwindled against Carolina, Hudson Fasching's first goal in a win against Winnipeg, two fun victories against the tanking Leafs, Eichel's backwards-skating point shot goal against Calgary (that some think went through the hole in a defender's skate). Still, this is not deluca .500, and downer moments included getting pasted 4-1 by those same leafs, as Eichel missed his only game because of a bad grilled cheese sandwich. Overall, this March seems like it will be an outlier for this thread, and with a high ankle sprain the following October, we never felt hope on that level again until a ten game win streak 2.5 years later. 

2016-17
March record: 6-7-1, 37 goals, 40 goals against
This March wasn't as fun as the record suggests (it doesn't suggest much fun). After a bad start and most the forum having violently turned on Bylsma, the Sabres had pulled their way up to 26-23-10, and with a win against the Blues in late February, pulled to within ~4 points of the final playoff spot. A good March would have us feeling like the rebuild was right on schedule. But the Sabres then fell apart, losing their final 4 games in February and, after a brief victory against a lowly Coyotes team on March 2nd, lost 6 of their next 7, killing those playoff hopes as quickly as they materialized. The first ever Sabrespace meetup at a 5-2 victory over the Leafs was one of the only bright spots, as after that Blues game, the Sabres finished the year with a sub-60 eighty-two-game-point-pace, with an ugly March embedded right in the middle of that. The bulk of the wins in this month were forgetful wins against bad teams after the drain circling had been completed.

2017-18
March record: 5-8-1, 34 goals, 53 goals against
A completely forgettable month in a season that was over before its third week was complete. No signs of life, nothing interesting aside from a 7-4 win against the Predators on the month's last day, when a five minute major allowed the Sabres to score 3 or 4 goals late in the third. 

2018-19
March record: 2-12-2, 31 goals, 66 goals against
This team was desperately clinging to its 10 game win streak cushion by early/mid January. We all know the story - no help came, and the result was a historic plunge, and the Sabres playing with the full emotional burden and knowledge of that fact. It was some of the ugliest and most frustrating hockey in team history, caked in the middle of a 3 win in 24 game stretch. I was done with Botterill 2 months into his first season, convinced that he is the worst Sabres GM I've ever seen after the ROR trade (yes, it's nice that Tage has worked out, we can rehash this elsewhere), and after this collapse convinced that he would be my least-favorite participant in Buffalo Sports until somebody comes along and moves the Bills. What a month

2019-2020
The Sabres season was toast, and then the league was shut down for the bulk of the month for some reason that is slipping my memory. The Sabres missed a 24 team playoff. At least Jason had learned from his previous mistake and bolstered the roster by trading for Frolik. Oh, they did play 4 times in March, winning the last one with the first 3 being the continuation of a 6 game losing streak that started when they traded for Wayne Simmonds

2020-2021
March record: 1-13-2, 33 goals, 66 goals against
March contained 15 of the games from the 18 game losing streak, with its last game ending the streak. Every ounce of the limited good feelings from last spring came after the month of March finished, and this one was the bleakest yet. The Sabres had never felt further from relevance. The only saving grace was that fans were barred from witnessing any of this in person. 

 

So in the last six Marches of Buffalo Sabres hockey, the Sabres have played 79 games, won 22, and lost 57. The last time anyone felt *hopeful*, let alone *good* about the Sabres after the month of March was in 2016. Every other spring they exited the month feeling worse than when they entered. 

Having this trend change won't guarantee anything because these games don't count in next year's standings. But it would definitely be a breath of fresh air and allow for a hope that is rare in these parts. The schedule sets up well - a bunch of good teams to sharpen our swords against, Reinhart and Eichel games, a bunch of home games sandwiching one of those comradery-fostering road trips to western Canada. I hope the Sabres are up for the task and I hope that they set us up for an optimistic summer full of buzz-generating moves and then an October of restoration after that

Edited March 5, 2022 by Randall Flagg

[JohnnyK]

The Sabres are showing signs of life, grit and fight we have not seen in years!!! ...and it is the young guns doing it... all good signs.

Go Sabres, This feels different.

In Adams we trust!

 

[Doohickie]

It's probably a good thing that March is a murderer's row of games against playoff and bubble teams.  The first two were regulation wins.  I'd love to see the Sabres continue that run and rattle off a winning streak of 10 game or so, so that they could go into next season feeling they can go up against playoff teams without flinching.  I mean, if they can do it with this team, with this 4th line, with this goaltending.... maybe next season they can springboard off of that and launch into an actual successful season.

My goal for the rest the season is to ruin as many playoff drives as possible.  😈

[Marvin]

1 hour ago, JohnnyK said:

The Sabres are showing signs of life, grit and fight we have not seen in years!!! ...and it is the young guns doing it... all good signs.

Go Sabres, This feels different.

In Adams we trust!

 

Welcome back to the board.

I hope you are right.

[Doohickie]

2 hours ago, JohnnyK said:

In Adams we trust!

[LGR4GM]

We talk a lot about "learning to win" and during the 6 game losing streak the teams leaders called out exactly why they were not winning. Execution, effort, level of play. The Toronto game they put that all together and the Minnesota game they did it again, ever though at times they were outplayed.

I don't like blaming effort because it becomes this scapegoat for everything. Oh if they had tried harder they would win. However, I think we're getting close to having enough talent where yes, playing at 80-100% effort is going to make you competitive most nights. That fearless attacking style is awesome and I'm really hoping with reinforcements coming (Power, Quinn, JJ, Levi/Portillo), this team is finally going to have the talent for the effort to matter.

[JoeSchmoe]

On 3/6/2022 at 2:48 AM, LGR4GM said:

However, I think we're getting close to having enough talent where yes, playing at 80-100% effort is going to make you competitive most nights

Are you talking about the team as is right now, or the one with Quinn, JJ, Power, and hopefully Levi or another competent goalie?

Right now, the forward ranks have too many boat anchors, the D core is too thin and too young, and the goaltending is a tire fire. I'm confident we have the pipeline for the F and D, but while hopeful, I'm still not convinced we've found the G-spot.

[JKB1646]

Our future in Net is so bright I need Shades! UPL, Levi and Portillo! 

[dudacek]

So they’ve already matched their March win total of the last 3 years combined?

[dudacek]

And according to WGR 3 of the 4 wins the previous 3 Marches were in extra time.

[Marvin]

14 minutes ago, dudacek said:

And according to WGR 3 of the 4 wins the previous 3 Marches were in extra time.

Can we get to the same number of wins as the best March since the last lockout?  That would be surprising, but cool.

[thewookie1]

5 minutes ago, Marvin, Sabres Fan said:

Can we get to the same number of wins as the best March since the last lockout?  That would be surprising, but cool.

We play 8 more games in March

Out of those 8 only 1 is out of the playoff race. (CHI) Otherwise we are only playing desperate teams who are either holding a playoff spot for dear life or clawing their way into one. If the Sabres can win half of those games; we should be highly impressed 

[dudacek]

2 minutes ago, thewookie1 said:

We play 8 more games in March

Out of those 8 only 1 is out of the playoff race. (CHI) Otherwise we are only playing desperate teams who are either holding a playoff spot for dear life or clawing their way into one. If the Sabres can win half of those games; we should be highly impressed 

@PASabreFan?

What difference (if any?) do you see in a Sabres team ending a bad season 8-5-1 instead of 2-10-2?

[thewookie1]

9 minutes ago, dudacek said:

@PASabreFan?

What difference (if any?) do you see in a Sabres team ending a bad season 8-5-1 instead of 2-10-2?

Who me?

I guess it would all depend on why we were winning and who it was against. If the Top Line continues to light it up and the other lines pitch in then I’d be cautiously optimistic for next year.

[dudacek]

32 minutes ago, thewookie1 said:

Who me?

I guess it would all depend on why we were winning and who it was against. If the Top Line continues to light it up and the other lines pitch in then I’d be cautiously optimistic for next year.

Flagged PA because he’s been vocal about results not mattering once the team is out of it, but it was really an open question.

For me, it’s been a development year, so I want to see development. The more games Krebs, Cozens and Mule have like the last 2, the more comfortable I am about the direction of the team.

If any success comes only on the backs of Anderson and Skinner that is less significant to me.

[Norcal]

1 hour ago, thewookie1 said:

We play 8 more games in March

Out of those 8 only 1 is out of the playoff race. (CHI) Otherwise we are only playing desperate teams who are either holding a playoff spot for dear life or clawing their way into one. If the Sabres can win half of those games; we should be highly impressed 

That would be most impressive

[DarthEbriate]

27 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Flagged PA because he’s been vocal about results not mattering once the team is out of it, but it was really an open question.

For me, it’s been a development year, so I want to see development. The more games Krebs, Cozens and Mule have like the last 2, the more comfortable I am about the direction of the team.

If any success comes only on the backs of Anderson and Skinner that is less significant to me.

The results matter if the team starts to look competitive night in and night out and builds the attendance back game after game. That energy is something they can build on for the start of next year, even if the team's "momentum" doesn't carry from season to season.

All we have to do is go rewatch opening night this season and see the empty seats and hear the silence during the opening roster announcements. Go over .500 in March and then get Power on the team in April... and next season's opening night might look like a real opening night. That's important for a young team. Like Krebs said, they have to earn their fans back and that's what the remainder of season can be about.

[WildCard]

7-3 with 4 games remaining; Caps, Rangers, Blackhawks, Jets.

[Doohickie]

I have nothing to add other than props for the thread title.

[GASabresIUFAN]

How many backup goalies have we faced? 6?

We are 5-1 against the backups and 2-2 against the starters.

Backups 

Mrazek (2) both wins (then he was waived), Kahkonen W and then he was traded, Brossoit W, M Smith L, and DeSmith W

Starters

Petersen, Knight both L's; Markstrom and Demko both W's

[thewookie1]

6 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

How many backup goalies have we faced? 6?

We are 5-1 against the backups and 2-2 against the starters.

Backups 

Mrazek (2) both wins (then he was waived), Kahkonen W and then he was traded, Brossoit W, M Smith L, and DeSmith W

Starters

Petersen, Knight both L's; Markstrom and Demko both W's

Technically Knight is the backup for Bob in Florida

57 minutes ago, WildCard said:

7-3 with 4 games remaining; Caps, Rangers, Blackhawks, Jets.

Can't do worse than DeLuca .500

Edited March 24, 2022 by thewookie1

[GASabresIUFAN]

14 minutes ago, thewookie1 said:

Technically Knight is the backup for Bob in Florida

Can't do worse than DeLuca .500

ok so, 5-2 against backups and 2-1 against starters.

 

[triumph_communes]

We’re almost the team you don’t play your backup against!

 

but really, winning streak 20 in a row and a sneak into the playoffs!

[dudacek]

8-3-2 with one game left.

it’s pretty much pushed us out of contention for the bottom 3 and made bottom 5 unlikely.

We are now just 2 points behind the “way-ahead-of-us-in-the-rebuild” Wings for 5th in the division.

[Doohickie]

If they can beat the Wings in the standings, I think we can call the season a success.  Earlier in the year the Red Wings looked they were well on their way.