GDT: Sabres @ Penguins, Nov. 16, 2021, 7pm, MSG, ESPN+, WGR

[Thorny]

On Dahlin, and Cozens

 

Edited November 17, 2021 by Thorny

[Thorny]

Look at that. 14% OZ start for Dahlin last night. He put up the good advanced metrics with difficult usage. 

[dudacek]

I think people must be putting too much weight on the 10 minutes after Dahlin took that puck in the side and was clearly hurting. Otherwise he looked pretty good to me. 

[JohnC]

11 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I think people must be putting too much weight on the 10 minutes after Dahlin took that puck in the side and was clearly hurting. Otherwise he looked pretty good to me. 

It seems that Dahlin is simplifying his game instead of playing a more flashy style of play where he carries the puck for longer stretches. It's a more fundamental and mature approach to playing the defense. I, as you do, like his play.

As you noted I was surprised that he was able to stay of the ice after getting hit with the puck. He was clearly hurt but stayed in the fray. That's to his credit.   

[woods-racer]

He had the biggest bone headed play of the night. That is what I remember the most. I appreciate that he and Pysyk  have been tasked with a much more difficult role and they both looked very good doing it against a good team desperate for a win.  But, If Pysyk was the one with the ill advised pass through the middle of the ice to a Pitt player at our blue line for a break away I would be very down on him also.

Edited November 17, 2021 by woods-racer

[Thorny]

36 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

Purloined victory. Onward.

Also, Dahlin’s play and trajectory are tending to vindicate the FO’s decision to select Power as a potential 1D stud. I think Dahlin is/can be a good NHL’er … but I’m just about done expecting (consistent) *greatness* from him.

I agree with this

- - - 

Personally, I think he'll make a few all-star games. 

Do I think he'll be a consistent all-star level player?

Probably not. 

Edited November 17, 2021 by Thorny

[Doohickie]

37 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

Dahlin’s play and trajectory are tending to vindicate the FO’s decision to select Power as a potential 1D stud. I think Dahlin is/can be a good NHL’er … but I’m just about done expecting (consistent) *greatness* from him.

I would love to see Dahlin play a game at wing, just to see how he would do.

[PromoTheRobot]

10 hours ago, The Ghost of Yuri said:

I think it's a miracle the team is even in situations where in-game adjustments even matter.

Remember that Granato is a rookie NHL head coach.  He's still learning too.

He's got more experience than most young coaches.

[inkman]

5 minutes ago, The Ghost of Yuri said:

I would love to see Dahlin play a game at wing, just to see how he would do.

I don’t see how his skills translate to a good NHL forward 

[Thorny]

4 minutes ago, inkman said:

I don’t see how his skills translate to a good NHL forward 

Agree. There's some Reinhart there I guess but I don't see Dahlin taking a beating in front of the net to get his way - and Reinhart was an exceptionally quick decision maker. 

Dahlin has incredible vision and passing ability. He *should* have the most time to execute that from that back-end. I think he has the inherent hockey sense that, with experience, his positioning should be good enough to get it done in the D end. 

I *still* haven't ruled out Dahlin developing a more physical, playing the body side. It may never happen but this isn't an element that was non-existent in his game prior to the NHL - it was actually a point of emphasis he *did* have a bit of that in him heading into the draft. If he develops a solid confidence base, I could see it arising down the line when he's actually a man. 28, 29, 30, etc. 

Edited November 17, 2021 by Thorny

[dudacek]

11 minutes ago, woods-racer said:

He had the biggest bone headed play of the night. That is what I remember the most. I appreciate that he and Pysyk  have been tasked with a much more difficult role and they both looked very good doing it against a good team desperate for a win.  But, If Pysyk was the one with the ill advised pass through the middle of the ice to a Pitt player at our blue line for a break away I would be very down on him also.

I’d be curious to see a risk-reward analysis of Dahlin breakout passes - how many he completes, how many he misses, how many result in rush chances.

He does make some bad ones, but he also makes so many good ones.

[Thorny]

6 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I *still* haven't ruled out Dahlin developing a more physical, playing the body side. It may never happen but this isn't an element that was non-existent in his game prior to the NHL - it was actually a point of emphasis he *did* have a bit of that in him heading into the draft. If he develops a solid confidence base, I could see it arising down the line when he's actually a man. 28, 29, 30, etc. 

 

Edited November 17, 2021 by Thorny

[Doohickie]

8 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

He's got more experience than most young coaches.

True.  He's pretty much what you want in a first time NHL head coach, experience-wise.  But I gotta believe he's still learning as well.

When we see the team mess up and attribute to coaching, I see DG with a whiteboard in his office somewhere with a list of issues that need to be addressed.  He regularly reprioritizes it, and works in practices to solve the issues as needed.  He's not going to fix it all at once; you simply can't.  So he's taking bite-sized chunks and dealing with them.  You see progress but where a player takes two steps forward, another takes a step back, and he has to keep the whole team moving more or less forward.

[PromoTheRobot]

12 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Agree. There's some Reinhart there I guess but I don't see Dahlin taking a beating in front of the net to get his way - and Reinhart was an exceptionally quick decision maker. 

Dahlin has incredible vision and passing ability. He *should* have the most time to execute that from that back-end. I think he has the inherent hockey sense that, with experience, his positioning should be good enough to get it done in the D end. 

I *still* haven't ruled out Dahlin developing a more physical, playing the body side. It may never happen but this isn't an element that was non-existent in his game prior to the NHL - it was actually a point of emphasis he *did* have a bit of that in him heading into the draft. If he develops a solid confidence base, I could see it arising down the line when he's actually a man. 28, 29, 30, etc. 

I still can't believe he's only 21. How many years has he played? Was he 15 when he started? If Dahlin was drafted by the current Sabres regime he'd be in Rochester, if not Sweden, to start. Botterill and Housley were determined to show off their shiny new #1 draft pick that "plays with grown men in the Swedish League." Another shortcut that fizzled.

Edited November 17, 2021 by PromoTheRobot

[dudacek]

I remember annoying the hell out of people in a game day thread once by pointing out every time a transition play quietly died because of Skinner. I wonder what would happen if I pointed out every time a transition play quietly stayed alive because of Dahlin. Like with Skinner (who has been much better) I really think people are focusing far too much on a few high-profile moments.

Edited November 17, 2021 by dudacek

[bob_sauve28]

20 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

He's got more experience than most young coaches.

I'm surprised it took him so long to get a NHL head coaching job 

[Thorny]

11 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

I still can't believe he's only 21. How many years has he played? Was he 15 when he started? If Dahlin was drafted by the current Sabres regime he'd be in Rochester, if not Sweden, to start. Botterill and Housley were determined to show off their shiny new #1 draft pick that "plays with grown men in the Swedish League." Another shortcut that fizzled.

To be fair to Botts and Phil in this case, Dahlin had maybe the best 18 year old season for a D-man ever. 

Krueger was more of an issue. 

Edited November 17, 2021 by Thorny

[Taro T]

2 hours ago, bob_sauve28 said:

So we need 8 points in next five games to be on pace. Not likely 

Correct on both counts.  

But find a way to sneak a 7th point the next 5 & again that following stretch and they're right where they'd need to be.  (They have a legit shot at 6 in each, but a 7th or 8th point is asking for a lot.)  Darn shame they couldn't last 12 more seconds vs the Loafs.  That extra point would've been quite helpful.  (Thanks, Captain Obvious.)

[Thorny]

11 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I remember annoying the hell out of people in a game day thread once by pointing out every time a transition play quietly died because of Skinner. I wonder what would happen if I pointed out every time a transition play quietly stayed alive because of Dahlin. Like with Skinner (who has been much better) I really think people are focusing far too much on a few high-profile moments.

It wasn't multiple people getting annoyed, just me, multiple times

If you do that with Dahlin, now, we're square 

[LabattBlue]

19 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

If Dahlin was drafted by the current Sabres regime he'd be in Rochester, if not Sweden, to start. Botterill and Housley were determined to show off their shiny new #1 draft pick that "plays with grown men in the Swedish League." Another shortcut that fizzled.

I disagree.  He was a highly touted prospect, in some circles called the best blueline prospect since Potvin, and showed no signs in his first camp why he should start the season in Rochester.  It seems since season two there has been a steady regression to his game.  I hope all those people who were pining for a 7x7 or 7x8 deal in the off-season, are now happy the Sabres went with a 3 year deal instead.  Maybe I will be proven wrong, but I don't even see all-star team prospects in his future, let alone ever being a Norris Trophy contender.  I will go even farther in saying that by the end of this 3 year deal, if his play doesn't improve dramatically, the Sabres may not even consider him part of the core going forward.

Edited November 17, 2021 by LabattBlue

[PASabreFan]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

On Dahlin, and Cozens

 

He had some rough moments. That's why people are mad. Analytics dude without common sense. Go figure.

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

I think people must be putting too much weight on the 10 minutes after Dahlin took that puck in the side and was clearly hurting. Otherwise he looked pretty good to me. 

It's not very sophisticated, but I think people are still looking for Dahlin As Advertised. Once we all get past that as highly unlikely, the player will probably benefit from much lower expectations.

[Doohickie]

17 minutes ago, bob_sauve28 said:

I'm surprised it took him so long to get a NHL head coaching job 

Supposedly he was getting close when he got cancer.

[Taro T]

12 minutes ago, bob_sauve28 said:

I'm surprised it took him so long to get a NHL head coaching job 

Pretty sure the bout w/ cancer is what derailed his HCing train.   When others here were calling on him to stay on as HC for this year during last season, wasn't particularly on board mainly because w/ his pedigree & contacts he should've been a HC much sooner & the fact he hadn't aced THAT job interview anywhere in the NHL ever was off putting.  But the cancer explains a lot and it's looking more & more that we lucked into a good one.

And the same goes for Tokarski.  (Lucking in to one that appears to be a Tim Thomas late bloomer that is.)  IF Tokarski really is the next Tim Thomas (and it's too early to say he is, but not to hope it isn't just smoke & mirrors) this team should be in the 80's and actually COULD challenge for a playoff spot.  Really wish the other goalie were more durable than a 40 yo is expected to be.

[Thorny]

7 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

He had some rough moments. That's why people are mad. Analytics dude without common sense. Go figure.

It's not very sophisticated, but I think people are still looking for Dahlin As Advertised. Once we all get past that as highly unlikely, the player will probably benefit from much lower expectations.

I'm sure he understands why, literally. 

[Taro T]

23 minutes ago, LabattBlue said:

I disagree.  He was a highly touted prospect, in some circles called the best blueline prospect since Potvin, and showed no signs in his first camp why he should start the season in Rochester.  It seems since season two there has been a steady regression to his game.  I hope all those people who were pining for a 7x7 or 7x8 deal in the off-season, are now happy the Sabres went with a 3 year deal instead.  Maybe I will be proven wrong, but I don't even see all-star team prospects in his future, let alone ever being a Norris Trophy contender.  I will go even farther in saying that by the end of this 3 year deal, if his play doesn't improve dramatically, the Sabres may not even consider him part of the core going forward.

Actually, he showed signs of the sophomore slump in year 2 (pretty sure @Thorny will disagree).  And disagree about the continual regression.  Since the coaching change, the trajectory has been upwards though there have been fits & starts to it.  Still believe being away from Jokiharju helps and Pysyk is his best fit as a partner since at least very early on.  Get him a true top 4 that he gels with & watch him take off.  Maybe it's Samuelsson, maybe Power, but that guy is out there and once he gains the MOJO back, they'll be able to pair him with whomever.

Still expect him to come around & make the 3 year deal look like a poor decision.

Edited November 17, 2021 by Taro T