Tage Thompson's Upside? What Do You Think?

[matter2003]

Thompson is starting to really build momentum towards being a force moving forward...

 

[inkman]

I don’t know how anyone can’t come

away feeling good about Tage Thompson. 

[Thorny]

The 13.4 shooting percentage gives me pause - that’s an outlier. But that’s more cautionary. There’s no denying his season has vastly eclipsed expectations 

[Curt]

19 minutes ago, Thorny said:

The 13.4 shooting percentage gives me pause - that’s an outlier. But that’s more cautionary. There’s no denying his season has vastly eclipsed expectations 

It will probably drop a bit, but he is an above average shooter, so I’m not surprised by an above average shooting percentage.  It was 11.5 before his hat trick game.  That seems sustainable for him.

[Thorny]

21 minutes ago, Curt said:

It will probably drop a bit, but he is an above average shooter, so I’m not surprised by an above average shooting percentage.  It was 11.5 before his hat trick game.  That seems sustainable for him.

Ya maybe. Right now it’s between Sidney Crosby’s career average and Jack Eichel’s, and much closer to Crosby’s. Dunno if that holds. 

[Curt]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

Ya maybe. Right now it’s between Sidney Crosby’s career average and Jack Eichel’s, and much closer to Crosby’s. Dunno if that holds. 

What’s the relevance of citing Eichel and Crosby? It does not require a player of that skill level to produce a high shooting %.

For all his talent, Eichel has not historically produced particularly good shooting percentages at all.

There are many top 9 C’s, who are quality players but not superstar types, who routinely produce shooting percentages in the teens range, I could literally list you 10+ with minimal digging.  I see absolutely no reason why Thompson could not join that group.

[Thorny]

12 minutes ago, Curt said:

What’s the relevance of citing Eichel and Crosby? It does not require a player of that skill level to produce a high shooting %.

For all his talent, Eichel has not historically produced particularly good shooting percentages at all.

There are many top 9 C’s, who are quality players but not superstar types, who routinely produce shooting percentages in the teens range, I could literally list you 10+ with minimal digging.  I see absolutely no reason why Thompson could not join that group.

Last I looked it was nearly 50% above his career average. Obviously he’s improved this year, but my guess is, looking back on his hockey DB page in 5 years or so that this represents one of Tage’s best statistical seasons rather than the average 

If you have a list of mid 6 Cs “routinely” (I’m taking that to mean average?) having shooting percentages in the teens, ie 13 and above, id be interested in seeing it. That’s not a challenge merely genuine interest 

Edited February 20, 2022 by Thorny

[Curt]

5 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Last I looked it was nearly 50% above his career average. Obviously he’s improved this year, but my guess is, looking back on his hockey DB page in 5 years or so that this represents one of Tage’s best statistical seasons rather than the average 

It certainly is a divergence from his previous career averages, but I definitely see that reflected in his actual play.  He isn’t just shooting in the same way and getting lucky with more of them going in this year.  He is different. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if he continues to shoot a well above average % most seasons going forward.

Before this season, half his shots where off that stupid exaggerated toe drag move into a obvious, delayed shot that everyone could see coming.  He probably scored on 3% of those.

Edited February 20, 2022 by Curt

[Thorny]

Just did a quick search, over the course of the last 5 seasons combined, minimum 300 games played (60 per season), there are 47 players league wide with a sh% at 13 or above for their average. So the list includes roughly the top half of first line players league wide. (That’s just sort of a guess as it’s top line by shooting percentage not actual top line - but just wanted a rough baseline)

Its lofty, but possible 

Edited February 20, 2022 by Thorny

[LGR4GM]

12 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Last I looked it was nearly 50% above his career average. Obviously he’s improved this year, but my guess is, looking back on his hockey DB page in 5 years or so that this represents one of Tage’s best statistical seasons rather than the average 

If you have a list of mid 6 Cs “routinely” (I’m taking that to mean average?) having shooting percentages in the teens, ie 13 and above, id be interested in seeing it. That’s not a challenge merely genuine interest 

Idk, 13.8% seems pretty sustainable for sh%

1 minute ago, Thorny said:

Just did a quick search, over the course of the last 5 seasons combined, minimum 300 games played (60 per season), there are 47 players league wide with a sh% at 13 or above for their average. So the list includes roughly the top half of first line players league wide. 

Its lofty, but possible 

So possible but maybe a little high

[Thorny]

Sabres specific context:

In the last 10 years of Sabres hockey, no Sabres player has maintained a sh% above 13.6 (Reinhart) within their time here. In that 10 year time frame there have been 7 individual seasons above the mark. 

Not trying to say he won’t do it, merely that he’d be Sabres-generational for maintaining that average 

- - - 

If you go back a further decade and find Briere, Drury and Vanek the marks are above 13.7. So in terms of shooting percentage specifically we’d hope for him to reach ~ the level of those guys to maintain that figure.

Again it’s certainly possible but if that’s the goal it appears we’d be hoping for company more along the lines of recent Sabres Greats than recent Sabres Goods. As an expectation/hope maybe I’d put it around 10-11 percent to be safe 

@Curtyou had mentioned 11.5 so it’s not too too much of a discrepancy though 

Edited February 20, 2022 by Thorny

[Taro T]

37 minutes ago, Curt said:

It certainly is a divergence from his previous career averages, but I definitely see that reflected in his actual play.  He isn’t just shooting in the same way and getting lucky with more of them going in this year.  He is different. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if he continues to shoot a well above average % most seasons going forward.

Before this season, half his shots where off that stupid exaggerated toe drag move into a obvious, delayed shot that everyone could see coming.  He probably scored on 3% of those.

The bolded is key.  Since he was allowed to play his natural position, he IS different.

[LGR4GM]

44 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Sabres specific context:

In the last 10 years of Sabres hockey, no Sabres player has maintained a sh% above 13.6 (Reinhart) within their time here. In that 10 year time frame there have been 7 individual seasons above the mark. 

Not trying to say he won’t do it, merely that he’d be Sabres-generational for maintaining that average 

- - - 

If you go back a further decade and find Briere, Drury and Vanek the marks are above 13.7. So in terms of shooting percentage specifically we’d hope for him to reach ~ the level of those guys to maintain that figure.

Again it’s certainly possible but if that’s the goal it appears we’d be hoping for company more along the lines of recent Sabres Greats than recent Sabres Goods. As an expectation/hope maybe I’d put it around 10-11 percent to be safe 

@Curtyou had mentioned 11.5 so it’s not too too much of a discrepancy though 

Only 7? I know Reinhart has 3

[Crusader1969]

On 2/19/2022 at 4:25 PM, NAF said:

Time value also should come into play here -- the Blues got a fantastic player that immediately helped them win. We've had to wait 4 years for Tage to turn into something good. Also still waiting on Ryan Johnson.

Don't forget the Sabres had to eat Berglund and Sobotka's contracts. Even if Johnson turns into a good second paring blueliner they'll still have lost the trade.

This is exactly right.  The biggest problem with the trade is the 2 guys that were supposed to give the Sabres Depth behind Eichel ended up being terrible   If they got even one player that helped them for 2 /3 years after the trade.  You could actually argue it was a good trade for the Sabres 

 

[kas23]

1 hour ago, Crusader1969 said:

This is exactly right.  The biggest problem with the trade is the 2 guys that were supposed to give the Sabres Depth behind Eichel ended up being terrible   If they got even one player that helped them for 2 /3 years after the trade.  You could actually argue it was a good trade for the Sabres 

 

And don’t forget Johnson, who we’ll have a good handle on in 3-4 years. Just shows you how long defensemen need to develop and if we want someone for the right side soon, we better trade for one or draft with our first pick in next draft. I’ll take Jiricek (or Nemec) and a trade or FA for another shutdown righty defensemen.

[Curt]

3 hours ago, Thorny said:

Sabres specific context:

In the last 10 years of Sabres hockey, no Sabres player has maintained a sh% above 13.6 (Reinhart) within their time here. In that 10 year time frame there have been 7 individual seasons above the mark. 

Not trying to say he won’t do it, merely that he’d be Sabres-generational for maintaining that average 

- - - 

If you go back a further decade and find Briere, Drury and Vanek the marks are above 13.7. So in terms of shooting percentage specifically we’d hope for him to reach ~ the level of those guys to maintain that figure.

Again it’s certainly possible but if that’s the goal it appears we’d be hoping for company more along the lines of recent Sabres Greats than recent Sabres Goods. As an expectation/hope maybe I’d put it around 10-11 percent to be safe 

@Curtyou had mentioned 11.5 so it’s not too too much of a discrepancy though 

The last 10 years of Sabres hockey are no kind of benchmark for anything.  It only serves to show what should be easily surpassable.

It simply isn’t true that a player needs to be a high end 1st liner, a Briere, or even a Drury level offensive player.  Here is a list of centers only (if I’d included wingers I could have listed many many more) who have been able to maintain a high shooting % (12%+) through most of their careers.  I could have found more, but I got tired.  And I left out all the players who would be considered league stars.  You will notice that there are many who are not even 1st liners, and in some cases not even top-6 forwards really.

Monahan, Brock Nelson, Horvat, Dvorak, Gourde, Josh Norris, Nugent-Hopkins, Schenn, Jared McCann, Chandler Stephenson, Adam Henrique, Roslovic, Kadri

I do this only to illustrate that if these guys can maintain a high shooting %, then there really is no reason that Thompson can’t.  It would not require Thompson to develop into some all star level player.

[Thorny]

8 minutes ago, Curt said:

The last 10 years of Sabres hockey are no kind of benchmark for anything.  It only serves to show what should be easily surpassable.

It simply isn’t true that a player needs to be a high end 1st liner, a Briere, or even a Drury level offensive player.

 It would not require Thompson to develop into some all star level player.

Aside from some of the numbers the likes of Eichel and Reinhart put up, can’t argue with you on the bold.

As for the rest, if only I had argued those things, you’d really have something

Regardless, it’s nice to see examples of non stars achieving the mark. Good research. It’s still much more uncommon than not to be that high, especially Sabres relative which I was pointing out - and considering his career average to this day I still expect it to drop. 

When you came in with the 11.5 number or w/e it was, as mentioned it’s pretty close to my pick/stated guess for range 

[Curt]

18 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Aside from some of the numbers the likes of Eichel and Reinhart put up, can’t argue with you on the bold.

As for the rest, if only I had argued those things, you’d really have something

Regardless, it’s nice to see examples of non stars achieving the mark. Good research. It’s still much more uncommon than not to be that high, especially Sabres relative which I was pointing out - and considering his career average to this day I still expect it to drop. 

When you came in with the 11.5 number or w/e it was, as mentioned it’s pretty close to my pick/stated guess for range 

I was kind of working off your immediate reference to Eichel and Crosby, then your reference to Briere and Drury, then you stating that 47 players had shooting %s over X%, so it’s basically just higher end 1st liners.

I wanted to show that it’s not just Eichel/Crosby/Briere/or even Drury level players who maintain high %s.  I listed 13 centers, but if I wanted to be exhaustive, I probably could have listed close to 50 forwards.  It’s not that uncommon.

[Thorny]

I did the work already, it’s 47 forwards in the last 5 years with the games qualifier I laid out. Yes, that’s uncommon relative to the total talent base. At least it fits my definition of uncommon.  

You can kind of work off whatever you like but I specifically stated joining the ranks of Briere/Drury for *shooting percentage*. Those are simply the Sabres to last achieve 13.7 or higher as an average over their time as a Sabre. 

What was the point of me specifically typing this: “(That’s just sort of a guess as it’s top line by shooting percentage not actual top line - but just wanted a rough baseline)” if I wasn’t trying to present my stance in good faith lol 

Regardless, if the Sabres maintain seeing an overwhelming parade of backup goaltenders for the duration of Tage’s career, I agree he’s got a fighting shot at 13.7

Edited February 21, 2022 by Thorny

[Curt]

6 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I did the work already, it’s 47 forwards in the last 5 years with the games qualifier I laid out. Yes, that’s uncommon relative to the total talent base. At least it fits my definition of uncommon.  

You can kind of work off whatever you like but I specifically stated joining the ranks of Briere/Drury for *shooting percentage*. Those are simply the Sabres to last achieve 13.7 or higher as an average over their time as a Sabre. 

What was the point of me specifically typing this: “(That’s just sort of a guess as it’s top line by shooting percentage not actual top line - but just wanted a rough baseline)” if I wasn’t trying to present my stance in good faith lol 

Regardless, if the Sabres maintain seeing an overwhelming parade of backup goaltenders for the duration of Tage’s career, I agree he’s got a fighting shot at 13.7

I think the takeaways here should be 1) I hope we all learned something about shooting percentages, 2) I had a bit of free time, and 3) I obviously only read the parts of your posts that I want to and I fill in the blanks with emotion.

[Thorny]

1 minute ago, Curt said:

I think the takeaways here should be 1) I hope we all learned something about shooting percentages, 2) I had a bit of free time, and 3) I obviously only read the parts of your posts that I want to and I fill in the blanks with emotion.

3 is a base requirement as far as I’m concerned 

[Drag0nDan]

15 hours ago, Thorny said:

Last I looked it was nearly 50% above his career average. Obviously he’s improved this year, but my guess is, looking back on his hockey DB page in 5 years or so that this represents one of Tage’s best statistical seasons rather than the average 

If you have a list of mid 6 Cs “routinely” (I’m taking that to mean average?) having shooting percentages in the teens, ie 13 and above, id be interested in seeing it. That’s not a challenge merely genuine interest 

Its tough to use a career average for a player in his early 20s who was getting ice time on the 4th line the majority of time.  Obviously he's improved as well, but its hard to score when your linemates don't ever put the puck on your stick in position to score.  That and the RK style which basically lowered every shooters % below the mean (minus reinhart - who was boosted with 10 PP goals).  

[GASabresIUFAN]

Shooting % changes are interesting, but are mostly telling in the rear view mirror and can be hugely influenced by quality of linemates, and opportunity (such as PP).

Jack averaged about 10% his first 4 years and then broke out for 36 goals and a 13%+ shooting %.  Because of his injury the next season, we can't tell if that was a breakout to a new level or a career year. 

Hall, G-d bless him, had been on a steady decline when acquired since his breakout in 17/18 with 39 goals and a 14% shooting %.  Prior to the peak year, he was good early in his career with % from 10.4 to 13, but then fell to 9 for 3 years. After the breakout the decline was obvious 9.7, 6.9, then 8.1 (with us and Bos).  He stinks again this year at 8.6.  These stats were one of big reasons I was so against his signing, especially for $8 mill.  His game didn't warrant that size contract.  

On the other hand you have Sam Reinhart.  Samson is 13.8 for his career.  Only his second season was below 10, every other year above 12 and he's been great the last 3 years at 15.3, 19.2 and 16.3.  Those are Crosby (career 14.5) or Ovie (12.8) type numbers.  I really wish we could have kept Sam.

Then there is Skinner.  His career is a yo-yo.  When he's on he's great.  4 Years of 30 to 40 goals with 12 to 14.9 shooting percentages.  When he's not or ill used (see RK) you get years of 7.7, 6.3, 7.7, 8.7 and 8.2.  The best way to describe Skinner is consistently inconsistent.  This year is another upswing with 20 goals YTD and a 13.2%.   

So the real question for Thompson is whether this season is a career year like Hall, a possible career year like Jack, or an ascension to a new level.  Prior to this season, Tage had played only 145 NHL games across 4 seasons with shooting % of 5.5, 6.5, and 8.3.  (the 19/20 season was only 1 game due to injury).  In the first 2 seasons he also played in the AHL, and last season was effected by Krueger and Covid.  His RK and post RK splits are interesting at 4.1% and 9.7%.   

I'm going to be optimistic about Tage.  His production this season is a product of a talented player finally maturing combined with opportunity.  His ice time has grown to nearly 18 minutes a game vs 12 to 14 previous years.  He is now playing on the top line with better players and on the top PP.   He was always known for his big shot and based on his improvement last season under DG, maybe this breakout was already on it's way.

Edited February 21, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[Buffalonill]

Im not a believer yet he needs to repeat it next year .

I've seen many 1 year wonders 

Edited February 21, 2022 by Buffalonill

[LGR4GM]

29 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Shooting % changes are interesting, but are mostly telling in the rear view mirror and can be hugely influenced by quality of linemates, and opportunity (such as PP).

Jack averaged about 10% his first 4 years and then broke out for 36 goals and a 13%+ shooting %.  Because of his injury the next season, we can't tell if that was a breakout to a new level or a career year. 

Hall, G-d bless him, had been on a steady decline when acquired since his breakout in 17/18 with 39 goals and a 14% shooting %.  Prior to the peak year, he was good early in his career with % from 10.4 to 13, but then fell to 9 for 3 years. After the breakout the decline was obvious 9.7, 6.9, then 8.1 (with us and Bos).  He stinks again this year at 8.6.  These stats were one of big reasons I was so against his signing, especially for $8 mill.  His game didn't warrant that size contract.  

On the other hand you have Sam Reinhart.  Samson is 13.8 for his career.  Only his second season was below 10, every other year above 12 and he's been great the last 3 years at 15.3, 19.2 and 16.3.  Those are Crosby (career 14.5) or Ovie (12.8) type numbers.  I really wish we could have kept Sam.

Then there is Skinner.  His career is a yo-yo.  When he's on he's great.  4 Years of 30 to 40 goals with 12 to 14.9 shooting percentages.  When he's not or ill used (see RK) you get years of 7.7, 6.3, 7.7, 8.7 and 8.2.  The best way to describe Skinner is consistently inconsistent.  This year is another upswing with 20 goals YTD and a 13.2%.   

So the real question for Thompson is whether this season is a career year like Hall, a possible career year like Jack, or an ascension to a new level.  Prior to this season, Tage had played only 145 NHL games across 4 seasons with shooting % of 5.5, 6.5, and 8.3.  (the 19/20 season was only 1 game due to injury).  In the first 2 seasons he also played in the AHL, and last season was effected by Krueger and Covid.  His RK and post RK splits are interesting at 4.1% and 9.7%.   

I'm going to be optimistic about Tage.  His production this season is a product of a talented player finally maturing combined with opportunity.  His ice time has grown to nearly 18 minutes a game vs 12 to 14 previous years.  He is now playing on the top line with better players and on the top PP.   He was always known for his big shot and based on his improvement last season under DG, maybe this breakout was already on it's way.

We gotta find 1 standard deviation away from Tage's average and use that as the +/- on his sh%. 

This however is why I look at the 2022 draft and I pause when ppl talk about getting a player like Cooley (who I really like). We have a lot of playmakers but I worry that we don't have a lot of finishers.