Goaltending this season and Beyond

[JohnC]

24 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

Sure, and what you say is exactly what they are doing.  And it is a poor plan that relies on luck that he is now good enough to make a jump.  In the meantime, the learning  experience by failing continues to be used by a franchise that has no idea about how to develop its players.  How about a learning experience based on succeeding at one level and the taking it to the next one?  
 

The goaltending situation has been a sore spot for me since they let Miller go.  It is the most consistent reason that we can’t compete.  We just traded Risto and Reinhart, acquired more picks, and still have nothing resembling an NHL #1. 
 

No pressure UPL, and enjoy the learning experience.  
 

 

 

Of course there is more pressure on UPL playing in the NHL this year than if he played in Rochester. And of course there are risks associated with rushing prospects. But in the rebuilding situation that the Sabres are in it can also be a situation where you have an opportunity to more quickly explore whether a youngster can play at this higher level. What's the fear? That if he can't handle the higher level of play and is sent down he will be damaged goods? That argument makes no sense to me. Mitts was rushed and failed at his first stint with Buffalo. He was sent back down and then brought back up. He demonstrated that he was capable of playing in the league. He played at a level last year that went beyond my expectation. 

There is a conventional roadmap associated with the number of games and timeline when developing goalies. Sometimes prospects develop faster than the typical timeline and sometimes they don't. What's the harm in giving him an opportunity to play if he earns the opportunity to play. 

[Pimlach]

13 minutes ago, JohnC said:

Of course there is more pressure on UPL playing in the NHL this year than if he played in Rochester. And of course there are risks associated with rushing prospects. But in the rebuilding situation that the Sabres are in it can also be a situation where you have an opportunity to more quickly explore whether a youngster can play at this higher level. What's the fear? That if he can't handle the higher level of play and is sent down he will be damaged goods? That argument makes no sense to me. Mitts was rushed and failed at his first stint with Buffalo. He was sent back down and then brought back up. He demonstrated that he was capable of playing in the league. He played at a level last year that went beyond my expectation. 

There is a conventional roadmap associated with the number of games and timeline when developing goalies. Sometimes prospects develop faster than the typical timeline and sometimes they don't. What's the harm in giving him an opportunity to play if he earns the opportunity to play. 

There is no fear. What you describe is the reality and it’s based solely on having no one else.  
 

The harm to UPL, if there is any, won’t be known for a few years.  There is nothing we have seen from UPL thus far that indicates his development is on a fast track.  If anything we can see that it isn’t.  Compare his Rochester numbers to Ullmark’s.   He is not close to Linus.  
 

He may make the team, I hope he does and I hope he develops at least to an Ullmark level.  Just stop thinking that beating out guys like Tokarski and Dell is really earning and NHL spot because it is not on any of the 31 other NHL teams.  
 

Admit that once again this organization is in a terrible position. I will hope for good luck, because that is what we need.  I and tired of hope when it comes to this team.  But that is all there is as we enter another full rebuild. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

22 minutes ago, JohnC said:

Of course there is more pressure on UPL playing in the NHL this year than if he played in Rochester. And of course there are risks associated with rushing prospects. But in the rebuilding situation that the Sabres are in it can also be a situation where you have an opportunity to more quickly explore whether a youngster can play at this higher level. What's the fear? That if he can't handle the higher level of play and is sent down he will be damaged goods? That argument makes no sense to me. Mitts was rushed and failed at his first stint with Buffalo. He was sent back down and then brought back up. He demonstrated that he was capable of playing in the league. He played at a level last year that went beyond my expectation. 

There is a conventional roadmap associated with the number of games and timeline when developing goalies. Sometimes prospects develop faster than the typical timeline and sometimes they don't. What's the harm in giving him an opportunity to play if he earns the opportunity to play. 

I know we are going in circles, but UPL isn't going to "earn" anything.  He is being given the job ready or not.  He has no real competition because Tokarski, Dell and even Anderson are no longer NHL goaltenders.  Beating them out for a job in Buffalo proves nothing and regardless of how he plays he'll likely remain in Buffalo because KA clearly wants him playing in Buffalo being mentored by Anderson.  

If we have real goaltenders in camp and UPL beat them out, then everyone here would say give him a shot and return him to Rochester if it didn't work.  Sadly that isn't the case.    

I think most of us would prefer for him to go to Rochester, play well there and then get called up.  So far he hasn't even proven he can be effective in the AHL much less the NHL.  His AHL save % over the last 3 seasons is only .885%. (It was .888 last year) If KA is serious about UPL earning an NHL job, why not first prove you can stop the puck in the minors and earn your way to the NHL?  By point of comparison, in Ullmark's 3 seasons in the AHL his worst save % was 902 and his final season was .922.  UPL isn't even close.

[Thorny]

5 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I know we are going in circles, but UPL isn't going to "earn" anything.  He is being given the job ready or not.  He has no real competition because Tokarski, Dell and even Anderson are no longer NHL goaltenders.  Beating them out for a job in Buffalo proves nothing and regardless of how he plays he'll likely remain in Buffalo because KA clearly wants him playing in Buffalo being mentored by Anderson.  

If we have real goaltenders in camp and UPL beat them out, then everyone here would say give him a shot and return him to Rochester if it didn't work.  Sadly that isn't the case.    

I think most of us would prefer for him to go to Rochester, play well there and then get called up.  So far he hasn't even proven he can be effective in the AHL much less the NHL.  His AHL save % over the last 3 seasons is only .885%. (It was .888 last year) If KA is serious about UPL earning an NHL job, why not first prove you can stop the puck in the minors and earn your way to the NHL?  By point of comparison, in Ullmark's 3 seasons in the AHL his worst save % was 902 and his final season was .922.  UPL isn't even close.

don't make me post it...

[JohnC]

3 hours ago, Pimlach said:

There is no fear. What you describe is the reality and it’s based solely on having no one else.  
 

The harm to UPL, if there is any, won’t be known for a few years.  There is nothing we have seen from UPL thus far that indicates his development is on a fast track.  If anything we can see that it isn’t.  Compare his Rochester numbers to Ullmark’s.   He is not close to Linus.  
 

He may make the team, I hope he does and I hope he develops at least to an Ullmark level.  Just stop thinking that beating out guys like Tokarski and Dell is really earning and NHL spot because it is not on any of the 31 other NHL teams.  
 

Admit that once again this organization is in a terrible position. I will hope for good luck, because that is what we need.  I and tired of hope when it comes to this team.  But that is all there is as we enter another full rebuild. 

 

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I know we are going in circles, but UPL isn't going to "earn" anything.  He is being given the job ready or not.  He has no real competition because Tokarski, Dell and even Anderson are no longer NHL goaltenders.  Beating them out for a job in Buffalo proves nothing and regardless of how he plays he'll likely remain in Buffalo because KA clearly wants him playing in Buffalo being mentored by Anderson.  

If we have real goaltenders in camp and UPL beat them out, then everyone here would say give him a shot and return him to Rochester if it didn't work.  Sadly that isn't the case.    

I think most of us would prefer for him to go to Rochester, play well there and then get called up.  So far he hasn't even proven he can be effective in the AHL much less the NHL.  His AHL save % over the last 3 seasons is only .885%. (It was .888 last year) If KA is serious about UPL earning an NHL job, why not first prove you can stop the puck in the minors and earn your way to the NHL?  By point of comparison, in Ullmark's 3 seasons in the AHL his worst save % was 902 and his final season was .922.  UPL isn't even close.

Please stop with last year's Rochester statistics meaning anything useful. It doesn't because it was such an odd season for a variety of reasons. First, UPL played in an abbreviated and delayed Covid year.  And he played in a season where practice time was limited. On top of that he was playing on a team that was stripped of its best players because they were brought up to the big club. So those stats that you cite aren't as useful as you believe them to be. 

I agree with you that if they do start him up in Buffalo it might not be the best situation for him and his development. On the other hand it could turn out surprisingly well. Right now you are wasting an abundance of energy on something that might not even happen. So be brave and stop fretting over the upcoming abnormal. 

Edited August 19, 2021 by JohnC

[Weave]

4 minutes ago, JohnC said:

 

Please stop with last year's Rochester statistics meaning anything useful. It doesn't because it was such an odd season for a variety of reasons. First, UPL played in an abbreviated and delayed Covid year.  And he played in a season where practice time was limited. On top of that he was playing on a team that was stripped of its best players because they were brought up to the big club. So those stats that you cite aren't as useful as you believe them to be. 

I agree with you that if they do start him up in Buffalo it might not be the best situation for him and his development. On the other hand it could turn out surprisingly well. Right now you are wasting an abundance of energy on something that might not even happen. So be brave and stop fretting over the upcoming abnormal. 

The other side of those stats are, every other AHL team was also stripped of their best players, so UPLs mediocre stats reflect play against sub AHL level talent overall.

The rest of your point I fully agree with.

[JohnC]

Just now, Weave said:

The other side of those stats are, every other AHL team was also stripped of their best players, so UPLs mediocre stats reflect play against sub AHL level talent overall.

The rest of your point I fully agree with.

Do previous year's stats (especially in an unique year) always indicate one's performance in the next year? I don't believe so. In this year's training camp he will be judged on how he plays. If he earns a spot on the roster he earns a spot on the roster. If he doesn't earn a spot on the roster he will start the season in Rochester. 

[thewookie1]

Tokarski and Dell are AHL goalies

Anderson is still an NHL goalie until he proves otherwise. He was still generally solid in his appearances with the Capitals and his age doesn't automatically mean he's garbage. To be frank, he had 1 more win than Hutton last year in his mere handful of appearances. (Granted Houser had more wins that Hutton as well) He can't be a full time starter anymore but he's certainly better still than Tokarski, Dell, and Hutton.

[Pimlach]

5 hours ago, JohnC said:

 

Please stop with last year's Rochester statistics meaning anything useful. It doesn't because it was such an odd season for a variety of reasons. First, UPL played in an abbreviated and delayed Covid year.  And he played in a season where practice time was limited. On top of that he was playing on a team that was stripped of its best players because they were brought up to the big club. So those stats that you cite aren't as useful as you believe them to be. 

I agree with you that if they do start him up in Buffalo it might not be the best situation for him and his development. On the other hand it could turn out surprisingly well. Right now you are wasting an abundance of energy on something that might not even happen. So be brave and stop fretting over the upcoming abnormal. 

?  

If you agree that starting him in Buffalo might not be good then why are you insisting that if he beats out Dell or Tokarski he should start?    Again, that’s a low bar.  No one agrues that calling him up from Rochester once he gets going as the solid  #1 is bad.  That is what we are arguing for.  Call him up after 20 to 30 games if he is playing well.  Fine.  Just don’t hand him a job based on a preseason battle with Dell and Tokarski  

Your Comments like “being brave “and “fretting” make our points sound foolish when they are not.  No one needs  to be brave. 

Your “upcoming abnormal” comment is all too normal with this organization.  Rushing young players has become commonplace since we can’t hire a GM that can fill an NHL roster.  

You keep defending this teams every move.  I’ve got news for you, they don’t deserve it.  

Edited August 19, 2021 by Pimlach

[JohnC]

11 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

?  

If you agree that starting him in Buffalo might not be good then why are you insisting that if he beats out Dell or Tokarski he should start?    Again, that’s a low bar.  No one agrues that calling him up from Rochester once he gets going as the solid  #1 is bad.  That is what we are arguing for.  Call him up after 20 to 30 games if he is playing well.  Fine.  Just don’t hand him a job based on a preseason battle with Dell and Tokarski  

Your Comments like “being brave “and “fretting” make our points sound foolish when they are not.  No one needs  to be brave. 

Your “upcoming abnormal” comment is all too normal with this organization.  Rushing young players has becoming more commonplace since we can’t hire a GM that can fill an NHL roster.  

You keep defending this team teams every move.  I’ve got news for you, they don’t deserve it.  

You are so off the mark that I wasn't even going to respond. For the sake of comity I will. If you believe that I am defending every move this franchise has made then you have not accurately interpreted my many posts. What I can say is that this regime has made a decision to rebuild after so many organizational mistakes during the Pegula stewardship. I do agree that a rebuild is the right strategy to take. How long is it going to take? If done smartly it can in my opinion be done in three years. 

[Thorny]

I am NOT a commitee

[Weave]

2 hours ago, JohnC said:

Do previous year's stats (especially in an unique year) always indicate one's performance in the next year? I don't believe so. In this year's training camp he will be judged on how he plays. If he earns a spot on the roster he earns a spot on the roster. If he doesn't earn a spot on the roster he will start the season in Rochester. 

Not sure why the sarcastic tone when my second comment agrees with the bulk of this.

[JohnC]

4 minutes ago, Weave said:

Not sure why the sarcastic tone when my second comment agrees with the bulk of this.

There was no intended sarcasm in my response. You did not receive the comments I made correctly. I simply said that a previous year's performance does not always indicate the next year's performance. You don't have to agree with that statement. You are over-interpreting my response. 

[apuszczalowski]

2 hours ago, thewookie1 said:

Tokarski and Dell are AHL goalies

Anderson is still an NHL goalie until he proves otherwise. He was still generally solid in his appearances with the Capitals and his age doesn't automatically mean he's garbage. To be frank, he had 1 more win than Hutton last year in his mere handful of appearances. (Granted Houser had more wins that Hutton as well) He can't be a full time starter anymore but he's certainly better still than Tokarski, Dell, and Hutton.

Anderson played in 4 games last season IIRC, I wouldn't exactly use that as a positive for him that he still has it.

He was a last minute replacement when Lundqvist found out he couldn't play last year and supposed to be retiring a couple days before he signed in Buffalo, I would say that atleast says he doesn't have much left in the tank. And I doubt the Sabres and Dell would be showing off his custom Sabres Pads right now if the plan was for him to be in the AHL this season. Unless someone looks incredible in training camp/preseason games, Its most likely that Dell is going to get most of the starts w/ Anderson as the backup or UPL getting a 1B role if Anderson lasts through camp. It would not surprise me to see Anderson retire during camp or right before the start of the year after getting to work with UPL and they feel he is ready for time in the NHL, possibly having an agreement that he retires and they give him a coaching position to continue working with him

[Pimlach]

2 hours ago, JohnC said:

You are so off the mark that I wasn't even going to respond. For the sake of comity I will. If you believe that I am defending every move this franchise has made then you have not accurately interpreted my many posts. What I can say is that this regime has made a decision to rebuild after so many organizational mistakes during the Pegula stewardship. I do agree that a rebuild is the right strategy to take. How long is it going to take? If done smartly it can in my opinion be done in three years. 

I think I’m right on the mark, and I too will subside on further discussion.  Here’s to hoping UPL is ready for the NHL.  🍺

[GASabresIUFAN]

46 minutes ago, apuszczalowski said:

Anderson played in 4 games last season IIRC, I wouldn't exactly use that as a positive for him that he still has it.

He was a last minute replacement when Lundqvist found out he couldn't play last year and supposed to be retiring a couple days before he signed in Buffalo, I would say that atleast says he doesn't have much left in the tank. And I doubt the Sabres and Dell would be showing off his custom Sabres Pads right now if the plan was for him to be in the AHL this season. Unless someone looks incredible in training camp/preseason games, Its most likely that Dell is going to get most of the starts w/ Anderson as the backup or UPL getting a 1B role if Anderson lasts through camp. It would not surprise me to see Anderson retire during camp or right before the start of the year after getting to work with UPL and they feel he is ready for time in the NHL, possibly having an agreement that he retires and they give him a coaching position to continue working with him

This is a scary thought, but reasonable given the evidence. If Dell is the starter, KA should be fired.   

[Weave]

1 hour ago, JohnC said:

There was no intended sarcasm in my response. You did not receive the comments I made correctly. I simply said that a previous year's performance does not always indicate the next year's performance. You don't have to agree with that statement. You are over-interpreting my response. 

It's not that I don't agree with it, it is that it is such an obvious statement that it comes off as condescending.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Actually UPL AHL's save % has stunk for the last 2 seasons.  (Which I also mentioned earlier).  

2019-20 on a good Amerks team his save% was .874 (Johansson's was .921 and Hammonds .908)

Last season .888 

Spin it any way you want, but this kid is not even close to NHL ready.  No one makes the leap from below average AHL goalie to NHL goalie in one off-season.

[Hoss]

 

[dudacek]

I want Dell to start just so I can see those pads.

[Broken Ankles]

I dont pretend to know anything about a Goaltenders development but what I do know is 40% of the top 50 winning goaltenders last year saw significant starts (25 or more) by age 22 or before.  UPLs results in 2019 and 2020 could be concerning but he had flashes of really good play to end last season.  At some point you need to know he can offer this team.  Next year seems to be the year where this “experiment” might hurt the organization the least if it fails.   He was drafted relatively high, and 22 seems to be the age when other organizations are giving chances to their young netminders.  I don’t buy into the idea of shell-shocking a 22 year will ruin any prospect of greatness.  Adversity does not build character, it reveals it. Let the kid compete for a chance to make the team. 

[pi2000]

1 hour ago, Broken Ankles said:

I dont pretend to know anything about a Goaltenders development but what I do know is 40% of the top 50 winning goaltenders last year saw significant starts (25 or more) by age 22 or before.  UPLs results in 2019 and 2020 could be concerning but he had flashes of really good play to end last season.  At some point you need to know he can offer this team.  Next year seems to be the year where this “experiment” might hurt the organization the least if it fails.   He was drafted relatively high, and 22 seems to be the age when other organizations are giving chances to their young netminders.  I don’t buy into the idea of shell-shocking a 22 year will ruin any prospect of greatness.  Adversity does not build character, it reveals it. Let the kid compete for a chance to make the team. 

Based on what I saw last year, UPL needs more time in Rochester.    He's simply not refined enough in his technique.   The NHL is not a place to develop a goalie.   

[Hoss]

2 hours ago, Broken Ankles said:

I dont pretend to know anything about a Goaltenders development but what I do know is 40% of the top 50 winning goaltenders last year saw significant starts (25 or more) by age 22 or before.  UPLs results in 2019 and 2020 could be concerning but he had flashes of really good play to end last season.  At some point you need to know he can offer this team.  Next year seems to be the year where this “experiment” might hurt the organization the least if it fails.   He was drafted relatively high, and 22 seems to be the age when other organizations are giving chances to their young netminders.  I don’t buy into the idea of shell-shocking a 22 year will ruin any prospect of greatness.  Adversity does not build character, it reveals it. Let the kid compete for a chance to make the team. 

Looking at Vezina Finalists:

Fleury played 71 games in his age 20 and 21 seasons. He was garbage - posting a sub-.900 save percentage and well over 3.00 GAA. His age 22 season he barely improved, posting a .906 save percentage and just under 3.00 GAA. Didn't seem to ruin him.

Vasilevskiy played 40 games before he turned 22 and played pretty well - over a .910 save percentage and like 2.50 GAA.

Grubauer, meanwhile, played just two NHL games before turning 22 and and then just 17 games in his age 22 season and 1 in his age 23 season.

 

Development is very different for goalies across the board. A lot of it depends on draft status, what league you're coming from/adjusting to and what players are "in your way" on the depth chart.

[apuszczalowski]

Wasn't UPL also coming off hip surgery/injury?

Up until this injury, he has played as one of the best goalies in the leagues he was in.

[apuszczalowski]

14 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

This is a scary thought, but reasonable given the evidence. If Dell is the starter, KA should be fired.   

What about this season right now isn't a scary thought?

As of right now, I would bet they go into the season with Dell and UPL as a 1A/1B tandem and Anderson retiring before the season starts but staying on to help coach and work with UPL. The Sabres seem to be on a real kick of hiring former players to the coaching and front office staff, wouldn't be surprised if Andersons signing was intended as a a way to bring him in to work and sort of mentor UPL while being a 'worst case scenario/backup plan' emergency goalie to go into the season if they need someone. Goalies his age don't usually change their minds on retirement to go play for a team almost certain to be in last or second to last in the league after playing in less then a 1/2 dozen games the year before to be paid league minimum.