Where do the 2021-2022 Sabres finish?

[#freejame]

Changes or not I don’t think we finish outside of the bottom six. We are still 2-3 years from the playoffs. 

Edited May 6, 2021 by #freejame

[Taro T]

Likely at home.  If not there, will go with Pittsburgh.

[Zamboni]

All the spots 

 

without knowing who the coach will be 

without knowing who the goaltenders will be 

without knowing who the top 6 will be 

without knowing who the bottom 6 will be 

without knowing the D group 

without knowing Sabretooths diet

 

Where will the Sabres finish in 24-25? What about 28-29? Who bloody knows ...

[tom webster]

26 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Likely at home.  If not there, will go with Pittsburgh.

I don’t think they can play Pittsburgh in the finals! 

[#freejame]

33 minutes ago, Zamboni said:

All the spots 

 

without knowing who the coach will be 

without knowing who the goaltenders will be 

without knowing who the top 6 will be 

without knowing who the bottom 6 will be 

without knowing the D group 

without knowing Sabretooths diet

 

Where will the Sabres finish in 24-25? What about 28-29? Who bloody knows ...

Well we have fifteen threads full of posters who want to take this same roster, add a backup to Ullmark and think we make the playoffs. In those same threads, we have posters who think 6-10 players need to be changed. The overwhelming majority of the board is pretty much in two distinct groups: we are fine with our progression and need goaltending OR we have too many glaring holes that cannot be fixed in a single off-season.

Many of those questions don’t need to be answered. Give me to Linus Ullmark’s in net and this is still a team maxing out at 80 points. Give me Gerald Gallant behind the bench and this is still a team maxing out at 80 points. Reunite the LOG line and keep ATM together in the bottom-6 and this is still a team maxing out at 80 points. 
 

We are playing at 56 point pace over 82 games. 80 points is typically around 25th in the league. Is anyone here complaining if we improve by 12 wins next season? 

[Hoss]

I went with a very optimistic pick of 22-26.

[thewookie1]

I think we sneak into the playoffs; it’s bound to happen for us eventually after all 

[Marvin]

Until I see the line-up, coach, etc., I will not vote.

[PerreaultForever]

I voted 26-22 and considered that optimistic. 

[Thorny]

If we take the "add a 4th line guy, a vet D, a backup goalie, and let it ride" approach, that's being advocated for a lot, we'll be out of the playoffs within the first few months of the season, like always. But I actually think this is the 3rd most likely scenario. 

I do NOT believe it's impossible to turnover enough in one offseason to make the playoffs. I think we definitely can - but it comes down to Adams' willingness to build towards achieving that result. In that scenario, we are keeping our good players and adding to the team in a meaningful way primarily through dealing picks and prospects. I think this is the second most likely result. 

But I'll say it again, the primary focus of a GM is always job security. That can often go hand in hand with positive results - but given the option to pursue a longer timeline, I believe a GM takes that road 9 times out of 10. If Adams gets the OK from above to deal Jack, if he doubts his ability to flip a last place team into a playoffs contender in one offseason, we probably move Jack, and are in a couple year rebuild.

The last scenario would be exceptionally disappointing to me, probably the most so, but the first scenario I called the most unlikely because it would be the most utterly baffling. I can see the arguments for going for it or playing the long game (barf), but sitting on our hands and doing basically nothing in the top 9 and thinking that'll get us where we need to go to (hypothetically) keep Jack here once his NMC kicks in would be folly. It probably ends in a bottom 3rd finish and a Jack trade for less than we'd get this offseason.

[dudacek]

17 minutes ago, Thorny said:

If we take the "add a 4th line guy, a vet D, a backup goalie, and let it ride" approach, that's being advocated for a lot, we'll be out of the playoffs within the first few months of the season, like always. But I actually think this is the 3rd most likely scenario. 

I do NOT believe it's impossible to turnover enough in one offseason to make the playoffs. I think we definitely can - but it comes down to Adams' willingness to build towards achieving that result. In that scenario, we are keeping our good players and adding to the team in a meaningful way primarily through dealing picks and prospects. I think this is the second most likely result. 

But I'll say it again, the primary focus of a GM is always job security. That can often go hand in hand with positive results - but given the option to pursue a longer timeline, I believe a GM takes that road 9 times out of 10. If Adams gets the OK from above to deal Jack, if he doubts his ability to flip a last place team into a playoffs contender in one offseason, we probably move Jack, and are in a couple year rebuild.

The last scenario would be exceptionally disappointing to me, probably the most so, but the first scenario I called the most unlikely because it would be the most utterly baffling. I can see the arguments for going for it or playing the long game (barf), but sitting on our hands and doing basically nothing in the top 9 and thinking that'll get us where we need to go to (hypothetically) keep Jack here once his NMC kicks in would be folly. It probably ends in a bottom 3rd finish and a Jack trade for less than we'd get this offseason.

What if we trade Jack in a hockey deal that addresses some of our holes?

Jack and Risto for Merzlikins, Jenner and Jones? (spitballing, not advocating)

Is this a playoff team?

• Olofsson Reinhart Cozens
• Skinner Jenner ???
• Asplund Mittelstadt Thompson Bjork
• Girgensons ??? Okposo
• McCabe Jones
• Dahlin Jokiharju
• Samuelsson Bryson Borgen
• Merzlikens/???

You'd have enough space to add a $6 million winger and a $3 million goalie to fill in the ???

[Marvin]

42 minutes ago, Thorny said:

If we take the "add a 4th line guy, a vet D, a backup goalie, and let it ride" approach, that's being advocated for a lot, we'll be out of the playoffs within the first few months of the season, like always. But I actually think this is the 3rd most likely scenario. 

I do NOT believe it's impossible to turnover enough in one offseason to make the playoffs. I think we definitely can - but it comes down to Adams' willingness to build towards achieving that result. In that scenario, we are keeping our good players and adding to the team in a meaningful way primarily through dealing picks and prospects. I think this is the second most likely result. 

But I'll say it again, the primary focus of a GM is always job security. That can often go hand in hand with positive results - but given the option to pursue a longer timeline, I believe a GM takes that road 9 times out of 10. If Adams gets the OK from above to deal Jack, if he doubts his ability to flip a last place team into a playoffs contender in one offseason, we probably move Jack, and are in a couple year rebuild.

The last scenario would be exceptionally disappointing to me, probably the most so, but the first scenario I called the most unlikely because it would be the most utterly baffling. I can see the arguments for going for it or playing the long game (barf), but sitting on our hands and doing basically nothing in the top 9 and thinking that'll get us where we need to go to (hypothetically) keep Jack here once his NMC kicks in would be folly. It probably ends in a bottom 3rd finish and a Jack trade for less than we'd get this offseason.

They must make some changes.

They need at least 1 goaltender for Buffalo, whoever he be, and either another guy for Rochester with UPL in Buffalo or, my preferred route, a competent NHL goaltender.  Let us eliminate the cheapo goals against.

Unless they are willing to accept continued mistakes on the back-end because of youth and lack of hockey sense, they need at least 1 veteran defenceman; my preference is for 2.  Let us cut down on the turnovers which lead to odd-man rushes.

We need to drive Eakin into Rochester and fill in the bottom of the roster.  Let us stop getting caved in on 1 line each game.

We need at least 1 upgrade in the top 6.  This team has a hard time finishing sentence, let alone scoring chances.  We also need some different styles.  I would prefer to upgrade 2 spots.

In order, that gives: 1st goaltender, 1st defenceman, 1st top 6 forward, bottom of forwards, 2nd goaltender, 2nd defenceman, 2nd top 6 forward.  They have about $19M to work with.  Goaltenders are about $4M each at my desired performance level.  Defencemen are $3M at my desired performance level.  Top 6 forwards probably cost $3-5M more each for the desired upgrades.  Bottom of the roster is about $2M total.

[Thorny]

49 minutes ago, dudacek said:

What if we trade Jack in a hockey deal that addresses some of our holes?

Jack and Risto for Merzlikins, Jenner and Jones? (spitballing, not advocating)

Is this a playoff team?

• Olofsson Reinhart Cozens
• Skinner Jenner ???
• Asplund Mittelstadt Thompson Bjork
• Girgensons ??? Okposo
• McCabe Jones
• Dahlin Jokiharju
• Samuelsson Bryson Borgen
• Merzlikens/???

You'd have enough space to add a $6 million winger and a $3 million goalie to fill in the ???

I'd guess no. 

I have the team, with Eichel, adding a second goalie (FA?) to Ullmark, and w/the addition of a 4C, as missing the playoffs. Jones to me is reasonably overrated, I don't think the upgrade difference from the hypothetical UFA tender, and Risto, to Jones and Merzlikins comes close to even matching the gap between Eichel and Jenner, which is a chasm. 

Additionally, Jenner (17 points) and Mittelstadt, insulated by an appointed-number-1-C-Reinhart does much less for me than strong-2C-Reinhart and Mittelstadt insulated by All-Star centre Jack Eichel. 

I think we need to add that top 6 winger AND keep Eichel. Then playoffs are on the table w/the other mentioned upgrades.

We have Olofsson's 3 mil to work with if it's necessary. I'm pretty sure it's doable cap wise, the issue is a willingness to deal draft picks. I know we can put together a deal for a top 6 capable winger with picks and prospects (and maybe VO), GMs love acquiring draft picks. 

[Buffalonill]

Hopefully last i want the next Crosby

[Thorny]

32 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I'd guess no. 

I have the team, with Eichel, adding a second goalie (FA?) to Ullmark, and w/the addition of a 4C, as missing the playoffs. Jones to me is reasonably overrated, I don't think the upgrade difference from the hypothetical UFA tender, and Risto, to Jones and Merzlikins comes close to even matching the gap between Eichel and Jenner, which is a chasm. 

Additionally, Jenner (17 points) and Mittelstadt, insulated by an appointed-number-1-C-Reinhart does much less for me than strong-2C-Reinhart and Mittelstadt insulated by All-Star centre Jack Eichel. 

I think we need to add that top 6 winger AND keep Eichel. Then playoffs are on the table w/the other mentioned upgrades.

We have Olofsson's 3 mil to work with if it's necessary. I'm pretty sure it's doable cap wise, the issue is a willingness to deal draft picks. I know we can put together a deal for a top 6 capable winger with picks and prospects (and maybe VO), GMs love acquiring draft picks. 

So I added Mittelstadt, Jokiharju, and Dahlin at the recently mentioned projections. Kept Eakin in the as the salary representative of the new 4C. Assumed Miller to Vegas and kept his cap hit as representative of vet D add we want. Added in a 6 million dollar top 6 forward and kept VO. Added Ullmark at 4 mil and a backup at 3.5. 22 man roster with a ridiculous 2.2 mil as the 13th man (such an odd contract from KA). 

Unless I'm mistaken (I don't know a lot about the cap), my scenario is workable cap-wise and I didn't get into any fancy maneuvering that I can see 

This team is about 700k below cap

[Thorny]

Oh and the 7th D doesn't need to be Laaksonen he was just there. 

[dudacek]

27 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I'd guess no. 

I have the team, with Eichel, adding a second goalie (FA?) to Ullmark, and w/the addition of a 4C, as missing the playoffs. Jones to me is reasonably overrated, I don't think the upgrade difference from the hypothetical UFA tender, and Risto, to Jones and Merzlikins comes close to even matching the gap between Eichel and Jenner, which is a chasm. 

Additionally, Jenner (17 points) and Mittelstadt, insulated by an appointed-number-1-C-Reinhart does much less for me than strong-2C-Reinhart and Mittelstadt insulated by All-Star centre Jack Eichel. 

I think we need to add that top 6 winger AND keep Eichel. Then playoffs are on the table w/the other mentioned upgrades.

We have Olofsson's 3 mil to work with if it's necessary. I'm pretty sure it's doable cap wise, the issue is a willingness to deal draft picks. I know we can put together a deal for a top 6 capable winger with picks and prospects (and maybe VO), GMs love acquiring draft picks. 

Just to be clear though, we are making the following changes to a team that has gone 9/9/2 in the past 20

• Risto —> Jones
• Sheahan —> Jenner
• Tokarksi —> Merzlikins
• Miller —> McCabe
• Caggiula —> Girgensons
• Reider —> A new guy who should be our best winger.

I'm not saying I disagree with you, but those are some pretty significant upgrades. If they can't move us into playoff contention, we are a long ways away.

[Thorny]

1 minute ago, dudacek said:

Just to be clear though, we are making the following changes to a team that has gone 9/9/2 in the past 20

• Risto —> Jones
• Sheahan —> Jenner
• Tokarksi —> Merzlikins
• Miller —> McCabe
• Caggiula —> Girgensons
• Reider —> A new guy who should be our best winger.

I'm not saying I disagree with you, but those are some pretty significant upgrades. If they can't move us into playoff contention, we are a long ways away.

But my roster upgrades all the guys you mentioned except Risto, and keeps Eichel

[dudacek]

1 minute ago, Thorny said:

But my roster upgrades all the guys you mentioned except Risto, and keeps Eichel

For sure. I wrote my post before seeing yours.

It keeps circling back to the question: if our injured guys return, can we make the playoffs by simply adding a top6 wing and a good back-up?

[thewookie1]

4 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Just to be clear though, we are making the following changes to a team that has gone 9/9/2 in the past 20

• Risto —> Jones
• Sheahan —> Jenner
• Tokarksi —> Merzlikins
• Miller —> McCabe
• Caggiula —> Girgensons
• Reider —> A new guy who should be our best winger.

I'm not saying I disagree with you, but those are some pretty significant upgrades. If they can't move us into playoff contention, we are a long ways away.

Jones is only under contract 1 more year so that makes it immediately a no go for me.

[Thorny]

1 minute ago, dudacek said:

For sure. I wrote my post before seeing yours.

It keeps circling back to the question: if our injured guys return, can we make the playoffs by simply adding a top6 wing and a good back-up?

I think the answer is yes, if we are willing to pay what it takes to acquire the top 6 forward.

But it's a price uttered only in whispered tones across Space, the fabled "first round draft pick"

but QUIET

...lest we be heard 

[Weave]

10 minutes ago, dudacek said:

For sure. I wrote my post before seeing yours.

It keeps circling back to the question: if our injured guys return, can we make the playoffs by simply adding a top6 wing and a good back-up?

I have no optimism that this is all that is needed.

[Thorny]

6 minutes ago, Weave said:

I have no optimism that this is all that is needed.

top 6 forward

depth centre

vet d

1A to Ullmark 

division change

good coach

...if we have a good GM, if the talent evaluation is accurate (and if it's not, *any* plan of action is a fool's errand), these things all represent certain upgrades. I think that puts us in a position where the gap we'd need to close to finally crack that playoff line can be found through a reasonable combination of positive results from some of the bets we'd be placing elsewhere on the roster - which represents a massive change. Usually, we are relying on across-the-board, top of the potential-range results from a significant portion of the roster. 

 

We'd be hoping for..

Cozens to fit in as a middle 6 winger (not needing him to be a top 6 C)

Mittelstadt fitting in as offensive matchups 3C (and not a top 6 C)

A new goalie to capably back-up Ullmark (and not one coming off a major issue with being able to see the thing he's supposed to stop)

 

Some of the more risky bets we'd be placing..

Dahlin to be our 1D (even here, I think the floor is 2nd pair, so though there are questions re: likelihood of achieving the desired result, the risk isn't staggering)

Samuelsson and Bryson to be a 2nd and 3rd pair D-men

..again, the evaluation on that vet D add mentioned above needs to be solid, but if it is, we'd have him, and Ristolainen as a reasonable vet presence

- - - 

It may come down to injury luck, things we can't fully control (but in my lineup it was taken under consideration for a change: no McCabe. Ullmark reasonably backed up. Actual C depth behind Jack). 

But I think they'd have managed the things they *can* fully control into a base close enough to playoffs, that looking at the list of things we need to break our way to bridge that gap doesn't automatically cause one to raise one's eyebrows. 

 

[PromoTheRobot]

Relegated to the AHL.

[Marvin]

I broke my promise and voted for the playoffs.