2021 NHL Draft Rankings

[Curt]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

I took a precursory look at Bob’s list and saw him ranked 4th, and thought “if we do get 1st pick, I doubt we get Beniers if those rankings hold up”. Not a thesis just a thought 

Rankings could change wildly, and it could be a non consensus even deeper than 1/2 (Hischier Patrick)

I would bet that those Bob list rankings do change a lot by the time the draft rolls around.  In early December most of those guys had not played any games in their draft year.

[Weave]

4 hours ago, SDS said:

Are we forgetting that Kassian was never edgy? Isn’t that where the concept of Zack Kassian came from?

It was more the draft expectation that we had our Cam Neely/Milan Lucic/Rick Tocchet, that elusive mix of nasty and skill.

[LGR4GM]

I wonder if Beniers should stay in college 1 more year. 

[ubkev]

8 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I wonder if Beniers should stay in college 1 more year. 

Yes. Probably all 3 more. Maybe go to grad school. Maybe even med school. Do a residency. Start a rotation. Then maybe a year in the A. And then who knows, the sabres might not destroy any chance of him developing properly by then.

[Hoss]

6 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Kent has great puck handling, good skating. The problem is he was beat out for center by Beniers handily and Kent loves to be on the perimeter. He's always on the outside and he's rarely the transition guy. So we see the puck skills but we also see the lack of battle dat we all want on dis team. Also something like half his points are secondary assists. 

If the Sabres were to draft him. I'd call for the entire amateur scouting department and Nightingale to be fired immediately. 

It depends on where they’re picking and pre-draft perceptions are never written in stone so I’m not going to be “up in arms” about anyone (within reason) but if you were to pick a guy like Kent over Beniers you’re pegging your entire reputation on it as a scout team.

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, Hoss said:

It depends on where they’re picking and pre-draft perceptions are never written in stone so I’m not going to be “up in arms” about anyone (within reason) but if you were to pick a guy like Kent over Beniers you’re pegging your entire reputation on it as a scout team.

If you did it, reputation as a scout team would be garbage. It would be the dumbest thing ever and so stupid I might honestly become a Kraken fan because that's the Rubicon for me. 

[Hoss]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

If you did it, reputation as a scout team would be garbage. It would be the dumbest thing ever and so stupid I might honestly become a Kraken fan because that's the Rubicon for me. 

I mean maybe but you’re acting like it’s an absolute lock that one prospect will be better than the next when it simply doesn’t work like that.

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, Hoss said:

I mean maybe but you’re acting like it’s an absolute lock that one prospect will be better than the next when it simply doesn’t work like that.

Maybe. Time always tells.

[LGR4GM]

10 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Kent Johnson... 

5 EvG, 4 EvA1, 8 EvA2

2PpG, 0 PpA1, 4 EvA2

11 primary points and 12 secondary points for Kent Johnson. He was the passenger most of the time. 

Our boy Beniers... 

3 secondary points and 16 primary points. The data set only has 20 of his games not 24 yet and it has 22 of Johnson not the 26 he has played. For Jonson it is only missing the 4 points he scored in his last 4 games. Beniers I think it is missing 5 points he scored in his last 4 games. But still the pattern is clear. Kent Johnson wasn't the driver and his 5v5 GF% shows dat as well. 

Johnson EvGF% 67.74

Beniers EvGF% 79.31

dat turd we traded to Edmonton for CoHo.

Kassian. 

The math says Beniers is better. My eyes back that. The reports back it. 

If the Sabres think Kent is better (I actually don't think this is the case at all) then their process is flawed beyond repair. If in the last decade they hadn't made mind numbingly bad choices, I'd have faith. I wish I did and I know you're not wrong with what you're saying, nothing is certain. 

[Crusader1969]

I think Eklund needs stong consideration for the Sabres and shouldn’t be overlooked 
 

having a better season than both Holtz and Raymond ( top 10 in last years draft)

competitive and tenacious  

plays LW and would be a top 6 forward ,  had been compared to Marner with his elusiveness and passing skills   Also is thought to have a high hockey IQ 

 

 

 

[Thorny]

I feel like "high hockey IQ" is the "free space" on NHL prospect bingo card skills breakdowns

[LGR4GM]

Dylan Duke, 5'10" 181lbs C

Possible 2nd round option

 

 

Edited March 28, 2021 by LGR4GM

[GASabresIUFAN]

17 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

I wonder if Beniers should stay in college 1 more year. 

He probably stays to avoid signing here

[LGR4GM]

Here are all the FC Hockey profiles linked to that article:

Reynolds, probably late 2nd maybe 3rd round. 

https://nhlentrydraft.com/news/2021-nhl-draft-deep-dive-peter-reynolds/

Guenthers, possible early first round pick, even top 10.

https://nhlentrydraft.com/news/deep-dive-a-look-into-dylan-guenthers-game/

Edvinsson, possible top 10 but middle first round seems likely.

https://nhlentrydraft.com/news/2021-nhl-draft-deep-dive-simon-edvinsson/

[ubkev]

Has an NHL prospect ever pulled an Eli Manning? That is, being drafted 1st overall and refusing to play for the team that drafted him? Later round college guys, sure, but what about a top 3 pick?

[LGR4GM]

1 minute ago, ubkev said:

Has an NHL prospect ever pulled an Eli Manning? That is, being drafted 1st overall and refusing to play for the team that drafted him? Later round college guys, sure, but what about a top 3 pick?

Not in the modern era (post 2004). 

[Weave]

3 minutes ago, ubkev said:

Has an NHL prospect ever pulled an Eli Manning? That is, being drafted 1st overall and refusing to play for the team that drafted him? Later round college guys, sure, but what about a top 3 pick?

Eric Lindros.

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

Not in the modern era (post 2004). 

Thats an interesting definition of the modern era.

[ubkev]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

Not in the modern era (post 2004). 

I didn't think so, but I'm currently cooking and couldn't do a proper search.

[LGR4GM]

 

Just now, Weave said:

Eric Lindros.

Thats an interesting definition of the modern era.

They changed the rules post 04 lockout. We could say post the 93 lockout but the game was different after 2004 and has stayed roughly like that. 

[ubkev]

2 minutes ago, Weave said:

Eric Lindros.

Thats an interesting definition of the modern era.

*****, how'd I forget that one? Eli Manning took it straight from Lindros' playbook. It was literally the exact same move.

 

[Curt]

6 hours ago, ubkev said:

Has an NHL prospect ever pulled an Eli Manning? That is, being drafted 1st overall and refusing to play for the team that drafted him? Later round college guys, sure, but what about a top 3 pick?

Eric Lindros famously did it.

Not a particularly high pick, but Brendan Lemiuex did it with Buffalo.

[dudacek]

22 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

The math says Beniers is better. My eyes back that. The reports back it. 

If the Sabres think Kent is better (I actually don't think this is the case at all) then their process is flawed beyond repair. If in the last decade they hadn't made mind numbingly bad choices, I'd have faith. I wish I did and I know you're not wrong with what you're saying, nothing is certain. 

Not disagreeing with your post here at all. (Looks like I actually quoted the wrong post)

But I wanted to ask you about why you frequently rely on primary/secondary assists so heavily.

I don't see a strong correlation that the primary guy does more creating than the secondary guy, or at least not enough to sway my opinion much.

I see the 2ndry guy often the one making the great breakout pass, or the dirty work work along the wall that was actually most responsible for the goal.

 

1 hour ago, Curt said:

Eric Lindros famously did it.

Not a particularly high pick, but Brendan Lemiuex did it with Buffalo.

I have seen this posted as fact many times. I have never seen it sourced, or repeated by a big-name media guy.

The only media guy I've ever seen reporting it was a local smaller-market CHL reporter I had never heard of.

Edited March 28, 2021 by dudacek

[Andrew Amerk]

8 hours ago, ubkev said:

*****, how'd I forget that one? Eli Manning took it straight from Lindros' playbook. It was literally the exact same move.

 

Bryan Berard also did it in 95. 

[LGR4GM]

12 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Not disagreeing with your post here at all. (Looks like I actually quoted the wrong post)

But I wanted to ask you about why you frequently rely on primary/secondary assists so heavily.

I don't see a strong correlation that the primary guy does more creating than the secondary guy, or at least not enough to sway my opinion much.

I see the 2ndry guy often the one making the great breakout pass, or the dirty work work along the wall that was actually most responsible for the goal.

 

I have seen this posted as fact many times. I have never seen it sourced, or repeated by a big-name media guy.

The only media guy I've ever seen reporting it was a local smaller-market CHL reporter I had never heard of.

I don't see that. If the guy on the wall wins it, he's centering it and getting a primary. I focus on primary points, so first assists and goals, because there's more noise when you include secondary assists. Some leagues give out secondary assists at higher rates... mhl is an example. If you're only getting secondary assists, the next question is why does it take someone else to get the puck to the goal scorer. 

In Kent Johnson's case I know why he has so many 2nd assists. He stays to the perimeter, isn't great at zone entries so he relies on players like Beniers to get the puck to high danger areas more often. 

 If Johnson had 60/40 primary v secondary assist split, I'd think little of it. But he's something like 4 primary assists which gives more evidence to the idea he's a passenger not the driver of his line. 

It's all about finding the drivers and chaos creators. Something Buffalo hasn't drafted with regularity since b4 I started looking at drafts. Goals and primary assists are better indicators of drivers impo. 

[dudacek]

2 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I don't see that. If the guy on the wall wins it, he's centering it and getting a primary. I focus on primary points, so first assists and goals, because there's more noise when you include secondary assists. Some leagues give out secondary assists at higher rates... mhl is an example. If you're only getting secondary assists, the next question is why does it take someone else to get the puck to the goal scorer. 

In Kent Johnson's case I know why he has so many 2nd assists. He stays to the perimeter, isn't great at zone entries so he relies on players like Beniers to get the puck to high danger areas more often. 

 If Johnson had 60/40 primary v secondary assist split, I'd think little of it. But he's something like 4 primary assists which gives more evidence to the idea he's a passenger not the driver of his line. 

It's all about finding the drivers and chaos creators. Something Buffalo hasn't drafted with regularity since b4 I started looking at drafts. Goals and primary assists are better indicators of drivers impo. 

What I like about this is that it seems you've taken a stat and applied the eye test to a particular player to see the why of it.

This I can get behind.

Without that element, the distinction isn't going to move the needle for me.