2021 NHL Draft Rankings

[LGR4GM]

Quinn can drive or support but he's never a passenger. Very much like Reinhart. 

Rossi is a driver and chaos creator. 

JJ Peterka is developing into a chaos creator. 

Jarvis was a driver, chaos machine. 

Cozens can be a driver and will be. 

Drivers need to execute controlled entries and exits, go to high danger areas, have good vision and passing. A good shot helps. 

Chaos needs good entries, good neutral zone, goes to the high danger areas and will shoot, bite, crosscheck, play physical, or otherwise disrupt the defense in their zone. 

So these concepts are similar. 

[LGR4GM]

1 minute ago, dudacek said:

What I like about this is that it seems you've taken a stat and applied the eye test to a particular player to see the why of it.

This I can get behind.

Without that element, the distinction isn't going to move the needle for me.

Yes, I don't take stats in isolation. If your numbers are good, the next step is why. It's why I like Jarvis more than Quinn even though their production is very similar. It's why I like Beniers over Johnson. It's easier with forwards and I can only watch what I can get. 

Stats is my starting point because if you don't produce in juniors you don't produce at a higher level. 

[dudacek]

6 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I don't see that. If the guy on the wall wins it, he's centering it and getting a primary. I focus on primary points, so first assists and goals, because there's more noise when you include secondary assists. Some leagues give out secondary assists at higher rates... mhl is an example. If you're only getting secondary assists, the next question is why does it take someone else to get the puck to the goal scorer.

Sam anticipates and cuts off the hard-around on the half wall. Hesitates to open the lane and finds Miller on the opposite point. Miller unleashes the bomb, it hits a defender's skate and skips to Cozens off to the side who buries it.

Jokiharju wins a puck in our corner, reverse pivots with his head up, and lobs a Hail Mary to Skinner exiting the zone early. Skinner gets caught and cut off by the defender who angles him away from the slot, but he gets off a limp backhand. The goalie tries to kick it to the corner, but doesn't get it clean. Lazar beats his backchecker and whacks it in.

There is no way Sam and Joki did any less on either of those goals than the other four guys. I'd argue they did more.

I agree there are a lot of cheap assists awarded, but they aren't always the 2nd ones.

[Curt]

46 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Not disagreeing with your post here at all. (Looks like I actually quoted the wrong post)

But I wanted to ask you about why you frequently rely on primary/secondary assists so heavily.

I don't see a strong correlation that the primary guy does more creating than the secondary guy, or at least not enough to sway my opinion much.

I see the 2ndry guy often the one making the great breakout pass, or the dirty work work along the wall that was actually most responsible for the goal.

 

I have seen this posted as fact many times. I have never seen it sourced, or repeated by a big-name media guy.

The only media guy I've ever seen reporting it was a local smaller-market CHL reporter I had never heard of.

I assume you are talking about Lemiuex and not Lindros?

Here is a story that links to a TSN reporter tweeting about it.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thescore.com/nhl/news/699212/amp

[LGR4GM]

17 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Sam anticipates and cuts off the hard-around on the half wall. Hesitates to open the lane and finds Miller on the opposite point. Miller unleashes the bomb, it hits a defender's skate and skips to Cozens off to the side who buries it.

Jokiharju wins a puck in our corner, reverse pivots with his head up, and lobs a Hail Mary to Skinner exiting the zone early. Skinner gets caught and cut off by the defender who angles him away from the slot, but he gets off a limp backhand. The goalie tries to kick it to the corner, but doesn't get it clean. Lazar beats his backchecker and whacks it in.

There is no way Sam and Joki did any less on either of those goals than the other four guys. I'd argue they did more.

I agree there are a lot of cheap assists awarded, but they aren't always the 2nd ones.

If your team is a big point shot and hope team, God help you. 

In all seriousness though, it's not discounting 2nd assists, it's placing more weight on primary points. If that makes sense. 

[dudacek]

29 minutes ago, Curt said:

I assume you are talking about Lemiuex and not Lindros?

Here is a story that links to a TSN reporter tweeting about it.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thescore.com/nhl/news/699212/amp

That's the one I was remembering. I guess Ottawa radio is a little bit bigger than I thought, but it is the only report I've ever seen of this.

[ubkev]

2 hours ago, Andrew Amerk said:

Bryan Berard also did it in 95. 

I thought Berard just requested a trade.

[GASabresIUFAN]

 Besides Jack and maybe Mittelstadt, what other playmakers do we really have in the system that can drive their own line.

R2 - He is certainly a pass first player, but will his game translate to the NHL?

Reinhart - I thought he'd be another playmaker, but he is really a good passing scorer.  That maybe because of his role here, but I don't see him as the playmaker anchor of a line.  

So who else once Halls gone? I really don't see anyone.  It's one of the reasons I like Beniers.  A few reports describe him as a Matt Barzal type player.  If he is, then he'll be the playmaker we need behind Jack.

[LGR4GM]

https://nhlentrydraft.com/rankings/

Not sure when they last updated their rankings but... I hate them. Anyways here you go. 

[LGR4GM]

11 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

 Besides Jack and maybe Mittelstadt, what other playmakers do we really have in the system that can drive their own line.

R2 - He is certainly a pass first player, but will his game translate to the NHL?

Reinhart - I thought he'd be another playmaker, but he is really a good passing scorer.  That maybe because of his role here, but I don't see him as the playmaker anchor of a line.  

So who else once Halls gone? I really don't see anyone.  It's one of the reasons I like Beniers.  A few reports describe him as a Matt Barzal type player.  If he is, then he'll be the playmaker we need behind Jack.

Feel like you forgot about Dylan Cozens a little bit. 

I have never seen Mitts drive his line at the NHL level. Skinner currently drives that line with support from Lazar and Mitts. 

[LGR4GM]

Small chance he slides to round 2 (I think it is unlikely) but Sasha is an interesting prospect. Here is a shift by shift from last month. Also you can see some of Matt Coronato for Chicago on this tape and he's a really interesting player. Also a little of Luke Hughes in here on team USA. 

 

[GASabresIUFAN]

23 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Feel like you forgot about Dylan Cozens a little bit. 

I have never seen Mitts drive his line at the NHL level. Skinner currently drives that line with support from Lazar and Mitts. 

Not really.  It could be his age or the Sabres or just where he fits in with this terrible group, but Cozens looks like a straight ahead power forward who will drive to the net and use his good hands in that area.  He was fantastic at the World Juniors, but his biggest impact was as a goal scorer.  He seems more Austin Matthews and less Jack Eichel.  This may ultimately be entirely incorrect.  It's one of the reasons I wanted him at center from day 1 so that we could see if he can drive a line.  Instead the genius known as RK decided before camp that Dylan was going to be a RW (possibly because KA didn't get capable RWs in the off-season) and really never deviated from that plan.

I agree the Skinner has somewhat come alive since RK was sent packing, but his rebirth started when playing with Mitts prior to the firing.  Mitts is far from a driver yet, but his passing ability has certainly helped Skinner get going.  I believe Mitts has the primary assist on Skinner's first two goals

[dudacek]

Let's not overrate what Skinner has/is doing.

He had a couple games where the eye test said he reverted to his 2018/19 jump and style. That's it.

 

[dudacek]

This is kinda silly, but it makes me feel a lot better to look at the Sabres on Capfriendly and see a full slate of picks instead of the gaps that were there two weeks ago. Hopefully a few more are on the way.

Bad teams need a pipeline.

 

[LabattBlue]

3 minutes ago, dudacek said:

This is kinda silly, but it makes me feel a lot better to look at the Sabres on Capfriendly and see a full slate of picks instead of the gaps that were there two weeks ago. Hopefully a few more are on the way.

Bad teams need a pipeline.

 

...and hopefully there will be a few more picks added to 2021 or 2022 draft pick total if Hall, Montour and other UFA's are unloaded at the TDL.  I am beating a dead horse, but the more picks the better.  You never know what you mind find in the mid or late rounds.

[LGR4GM]

30 minutes ago, LabattBlue said:

...and hopefully there will be a few more picks added to 2021 or 2022 draft pick total if Hall, Montour and other UFA's are unloaded at the TDL.  I am beating a dead horse, but the more picks the better.  You never know what you mind find in the mid or late rounds.

I know what the Sabres won't find because they draft like garbage. David Farrance. Alex Beaucage. Blade Jenkins. But maybe under a new scouting director and with new scouts they will update their process. 

43 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Let's not overrate what Skinner has/is doing.

He had a couple games where the eye test said he reverted to his 2018/19 jump and style. That's it.

 

His shot metrics indicate he is generating almost the same as 2018. It isn't resulting in a lot of points. 

[dudacek]

4 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

His shot metrics indicate he is generating almost the same as 2018. It isn't resulting in a lot of points. 

People have been saying that for the duration of his two-year drought.

His shots aren't helping the Sabres much.

[LGR4GM]

2 minutes ago, dudacek said:

People have been saying that for the duration of his two-year drought.

His shots aren't helping the Sabres much.

Yea, he's not with linemates to take advantage of it. Lazar is a decent defensive center and Mitts is more of a passer than a shooter/rebounder

[Thorny]

14 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

 Besides Jack and maybe Mittelstadt, what other playmakers do we really have in the system that can drive their own line.

R2 - He is certainly a pass first player, but will his game translate to the NHL?

Reinhart - I thought he'd be another playmaker, but he is really a good passing scorer.  That maybe because of his role here, but I don't see him as the playmaker anchor of a line.  

So who else once Halls gone? I really don't see anyone.  It's one of the reasons I like Beniers.  A few reports describe him as a Matt Barzal type player.  If he is, then he'll be the playmaker we need behind Jack.

 

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Not really.  It could be his age or the Sabres or just where he fits in with this terrible group, but Cozens looks like a straight ahead power forward who will drive to the net and use his good hands in that area.  He was fantastic at the World Juniors, but his biggest impact was as a goal scorer.  He seems more Austin Matthews and less Jack Eichel.  This may ultimately be entirely incorrect.  It's one of the reasons I wanted him at center from day 1 so that we could see if he can drive a line.  Instead the genius known as RK decided before camp that Dylan was going to be a RW (possibly because KA didn't get capable RWs in the off-season) and really never deviated from that plan.

I agree the Skinner has somewhat come alive since RK was sent packing, but his rebirth started when playing with Mitts prior to the firing.  Mitts is far from a driver yet, but his passing ability has certainly helped Skinner get going.  I believe Mitts has the primary assist on Skinner's first two goals

Your evaluation could certainly end up true, id say there’s a good chance Cozens ends up capable of being the centre behind Jack, though. 

Unless you just meant Beniers behind Jack on the “playmaking C” list 

Edited March 29, 2021 by Thorny

[GASabresIUFAN]

7 minutes ago, Thorny said:

 

Your evaluation could certainly end up true, id say there’s a good chance Cozens ends up capable of being the centre behind Jack, though. 

Unless you just meant Beniers behind Jack on the “playmaking C” list 

Beniers as playmaker, but I want Cozens at center to see if it’s a fit long-term.

Edited March 29, 2021 by GASabresIUFAN

[LGR4GM]

I think the first highlight shows what Kent can do offensively but that is the peak and the valley's make me extremely nervous. Beniers lacks the valleys of Johnson. The 2nd highlight really shows why I like Beniers and there's no knock on Johnson as he makes a great pass. Beniers is in shooting position but recognizes that he has space to his right and can get a better shot and immediately engages his legs. He moves 3ft right almost horizontally and gets the tap in. 

 

Edited March 29, 2021 by LGR4GM

[LGR4GM]

Luke Hughes highlights

 

[Randall Flagg]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

Yea, he's not with linemates to take advantage of it. Lazar is a decent defensive center and Mitts is more of a passer than a shooter/rebounder

The existence of a dip in Skinner's scoring can be attributable to the fact that he needs to be handled very specifically to get stuff out of him, because he's pretty bad at passing/hockey sense/defense himself. 

The severity and length of the dip in Skinner's scoring simply cannot be attributed entirely to this. When he played with Sobotka and a 3rd line LW to start last season, he still managed to score 7 goals in his first 13 games, and maintained a 32 goal pace through 28 games. It's not all Jeff needs to just sack up and do better and be better, but it's certainly not even close to being all a "usage" issue either. 

[Buffalonill]

dylan guenther and aatu raty are the best in this draft and This will go down as one of the dumbest mistakes ever when they both don't go 1 and 2 

2005 draft all over again with Kopitar 

 

Edited March 29, 2021 by Buffalonill

[Curt]

1 hour ago, Buffalonill said:

dylan guenther and aatu raty are the best in this draft and This will go down as one of the dumbest mistakes ever when they both don't go 1 and 2 

2005 draft all over again with Kopitar 

 

This is a very contrarian take.  The weird part of this draft is that I don’t think I would be surprised if it was correct.